2019 AFC West Preview

The AFC West is a tale of two divisions. The top half is loaded with talent and hopes for the season. The bottom half is a different story. Two of these teams are looking towards the Super Bowl, while the other two are just trying to figure out where they’re headed for the future.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Upside

This one is easy. The Chiefs were electric on offense a year ago, and they’re well positioned to do the same this year. Their offensive line is elite, they have a deep and versatile group of wide receivers, and of course they have the defending MVP. As long as they have Pat Mahomes throwing to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce with Andy Reid calling plays, they are going to put up points.

A year ago the offense had to score a lot of points, because their defense was pretty much a disaster, especially when facing the other top teams in the AFC. So naturally they spent the offseason working on overhauling that side of the ball. Out went Justin Houston, Dee Ford, and Eric Berry, in came Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu. They also switched defensive coordinators and schemes, moving to a 4-3. I’m not sure if these moves are actually a net positive, but if they can just achieve mediocrity on defense the Chiefs have to be considered right alongside New England as the favorite in the AFC.

The Downside

The defense will be what it is. If they get ahead in games and can stay out front, they can play aggressive and make enough big plays here and there to hold things in check. This team will still live and die based on their offense, and there’s very little reason to believe this offense isn’t going to be excellent. The Chiefs missing the playoffs would be fairly shocking, barring several serious injuries.

That said, there’s a difference between a great offense and a really good offense. The success of this team relies on them being great on that side of the ball. And greatness is a hard bar to clear. They kept rolling last year even after letting go of Kareem Hunt, but they have to be a little worried about the thinness of their backfield heading into the season. And of course, there is Mahomes. He still only has one season under his belt, and as exceptional as that season was, there is no track record of quarterbacks being able to repeat the kind of numbers he put up. Even if his production slips to something still absurd like 4500 yards and 40 touchdowns, the gap between that and 5000/50 could be enough to knock this team back down to the status of an also-ran.

Player to Watch – Kendall Fuller, CB

One major constant on their defense is the player they got back in the Alex Smith trade a year ago. Fuller established himself as one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league in Washington, and while he was a bit more up and down last year, he’s still a point of optimism in this defense. It remains to be seen what role he will have in this new defensive system, but if they use him properly they can clamp down on opponents’ interior passing attacks.

The problem with sticking Fuller in the slot where he’s most comfortable is, who do you put on the outside? Bashaud Breeland isn’t good, but he’s at least an experienced NFL starter. But that still leaves them with another side of the field, with their top two options being Charvarius Ward and D’Montre Wade. As good as Fuller is in the slot, they may be better off keeping him on the outside and trusting Mathieu to hold down the interior.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Upside

I’ve picked the Chargers to win this division for several years running now, and I’m tempted to do it again. There’s just so much talent top to bottom on this roster. They have an elite quarterback in Philip Rivers, a dominant receiver in Keenan Allen, and a quality running back in Melvin Gordon (if he can get a new deal signed). They have a dynamic duo of pass rushers and a deep and versatile secondary that combine to make them almost impossible to pass against.

If any team is set up to take on the Chiefs, this is it. They have the playmakers on offense to keep up in a shootout, and the talent on defense to give Kansas City’s offense a genuine fight. They split the season series a year ago and finished with the exact same record, with the Chiefs claiming the title and the first round bye only thanks to tiebreakers. These teams are a lot closer than people seem to believe, but I still have to rank the Chargers second, for reasons I’ll get into below.

The Downside

If Derwin James was healthy, I might favor the Chargers. He is that dynamic a playmaker, and his presence completely changes the defense. It’s unclear whether or not he’ll be back this year, and when he comes back whether he’ll be his usual self (he struggled some his final year in college coming off of an injury, and he has a style of play that may require him to be at 100%). But if he does come back late in the season, the Chargers have the ability to make up whatever ground they have lost with a push towards a championship.

The other big concern with this team is the offensive line. No matter what they’ve done, they haven’t been able to figure out this glaring hole that’s been open on their roster for more than a decade. They’ve invested a lot in the interior of their line with mixed results, and their starting tackles are a second year former undrafted free agent and a third year sixth round pick. Maybe this is the year this young talent finally pulls together, but if it isn’t they will once again struggle to keep up when matched up against the top teams in the AFC.

Player to Watch – Forrest Lamp, G

Lamp was a highly thought of prospect out of Western Kentucky when the Chargers took him in the second round in 2017, but through two years in the league he has been MIA. His rookie season was ruined by a torn ACL in training camp, but big things were expected from him heading into year two. And yet he spent most of the season on the bench. Not just on the bench, but inactive, not even dressed as a backup as the line fell to pieces in front of Rivers.

Lamp’s injury was frustrating, but his inability to earn any look from the coaches is just bizarre. This is a team starting Dan Feeney and Michael Schofield at guard, two players who are replaceable at best, active catastrophes at worst. Based on pure athletic upside you’d think Lamp is worth a look. This year they have to give him a chance, because if they don’t find something to work on the line they could easily find themselves making an unceremonious exit from the playoffs once again come January.

Oakland Raiders

The Upside

It’s hard to know what to make of this team, because I’m not sure anyone outside of Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock know what their plan is. They seem to be moving in a dozen different directions at once, casting aside talented veterans as if they’re rebuilding at some points while adding aging players as if they’re going all in at others. They let starting tackle Donald Penn walk in the offseason, only to give a huge contract to Trent Brown at the same position. They traded Amari Cooper away a year ago, then added Antonio Brown this offseason. In both cases they upgraded at the position, but for significantly more money and with more questions about their long term prospects.

Maybe this is the year the offense comes together. Maybe Trent Brown and second year player Kolton Miller give them an elite offensive line again, protecting Derek Carr long enough to get the ball into the hands of Antonio Brown (if he ends up on the field, ignoring everything else that is happening with him). There is a chance for this offense to be really good, and a good offense can carry a team into the playoff picture in the AFC. They aren’t ready to compete with the top two teams in the division, and certainly not with the other contenders in the league. But with some lucky breaks they could find themselves in playoff contention.

The Downside

There is hope here for the offense. I’m not sure I can say the same about the defense. Yes, they’ve added a lot of young players over the past couple years, including some that have shown flashes like Gareon Conley and Maurice Hurst. But they don’t have a single starter who I would feel comfortable saying is above average, and they would need about five different players to simultaneously break out just to have any hope on that side of the ball.

A shaky defense is not a great thing to have in a division with the Chiefs and the Chargers. Especially not with an offense that is geared towards ball control and slowly moving down the field. The Raiders need to find a way to make some big plays offensively if they’re going to have a prayer of keeping up in the shootouts they’ll likely find themselves in, but big plays really aren’t Carr’s style. This is a team that is a confusing mashup of a dozen different philosophies and strategies happening at once, and until they pull that all into something cohesive I’m not sure what expectations they can have.

Player to Watch – Gabe Jackson, G

Three years ago the Raiders had the best pass blocking offensive line in the league, and they rode it to a playoff appearance. Derek Carr had the best season of his career thanks to a pocket he could always trust to hold up around him, and the team looked positioned to make a run before he went down with an injury. And since then, the line has slowly eroded. Donald Penn and Kelechi Osemele aged and were eventually let go, and they added a raw rookie a year ago in Kolton Miller to try to build for the future.

But Jackson has been a stabilizing presence through it all. He isn’t among the elite of the league, but he’s solidly in the next tier, a guard who can be trusted to handle single blocks and make plays outside the narrow window most guards operate in. He is a massive mauler in the run game, and he’s solid enough in the passing game as well. With him next to Brown, the Raiders have more than 700 pounds of overwhelming athleticism on the right side, the building blocks of a line they hope can get them back to what they were a short time ago.

Denver Broncos

The Upside

Another year, another desperate attempt to plug in a mediocre quarterback to try to recapture their Super Bowl glory. Denver has basically been spinning their wheels for four years now, convinced they’re still in a position to compete and unwilling to admit that they simply aren’t a very good football team. In theory Joe Flacco is a better quarterback than the likes of Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, and Case Keenum, but he hasn’t been a capable starter for several years now, and even if he recaptures his peak form I don’t think the Broncos have what it takes to be a playoff team.

The best case scenario is that Denver can finally put together a running attack that can control ball games. They have a promising young back in Phillip Lindsay, and they’ve done some work to rebuild their offensive line this offseason. If they can get out to early leads in games, they can salt away the clock on offense while the combo of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb assail quarterbacks on defense. I’m not sure they can win more than six or seven games this way, but with the limited ceiling at quarterback this is likely the best they can hope for.

The Downside

I doubt that Flacco will start all sixteen games, and when rookie Drew Lock eventually takes over, things could get ugly. Lock has plenty of talent, but he fell to the second round for a reason, and it’s going to take him a while to adjust to the speed and aggression of NFL defenses. Putting him behind a line that has been nothing short of a disaster for several years now will only make things worse, and I could see a very ugly rookie campaign from him that has Denver seriously considering grabbing another quarterback high in the draft next year.

The defense is talented enough to pull out a few games for them, but once again it depends on how the offense goes. If they can get a lead and force teams to pass on them, they can shut down the competition and force mistakes from the offense. If they fall behind and let the other team have the flexibility to run the ball, it’s going to be a lot tougher to keep them contained. I could see this team collapsing down the stretch as their offense sputters and their veteran defense gives in to despair, but I think they’ll win enough early to keep them out of the top five of the draft.

Player to Watch – Su’a Cravens, S

Cravens has had an interesting path since being a second round pick in 2016. He was up and down in his rookie season with Washington, and was expected to head into the 2017 season as the starting safety for the Redskins. But a week before the season he announced his intentions to retire. He and the Redskins went back and forth some, and he ended up sitting out the entire season before announcing his plans to return. But by that point Washington had soured on him, and they sent him to Denver for a fifth round pick.

It remains to be seen if anything will come of him with the Broncos. He played only 10% of the defensive snaps in his first season there, and he’s still listed second on the depth chart headed into the season. But he’s the sort of player who could carve out a role for himself coming off the bench. He has good size and great athleticism, and in the right situations he can bump down as a versatile linebacker who can cover or hold up in the box against the run.