2019 NFC North Preview

Like the AFC North I covered earlier this week, the NFC North is a fascinating division with three teams all neck and neck for the title. The Lions sit firmly at the bottom—where they belong, if we’re being honest—but the other three all have legitimate hopes to win the division, or perhaps even go farther. And all three also have glaring holes that leave them a notch below the true elites of the NFC, and could doom their seasons if they stumble in a hotly contested division.

Green Bay Packers

The Upside

I don’t love putting Green Bay at the top of this division. Of these three teams they clearly have the weakest roster top to bottom, and it’s always hard to predict how a team will fare under a new head coach, especially coming off more than a decade under his predecessor. But they also have Aaron Rodgers, and he may very well be enough to make up for that gap, especially if some of the young players on the roster step up.

Most of the youth I’m referring to is on the defensive side of the ball. They added a pair of high ceiling rookies in the first round in Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage, and even though both are more long term projects than immediate impact players, the injection of athleticism could give them a boost if used properly. And last year’s first round pick Jaire Alexander is coming off a strong rookie season, potentially giving them a reliable cornerback for the first time since the days of Al Harris and Charles Woodson. This defense hasn’t proven anything yet, but they have pieces in place to take a leap forward, and if they can keep the opposition reasonably in check they can like count on the consistency of Rodgers to put up enough points to win.

The Downside

One of the major topics of conversation this offseason has been Rodgers, with a lot of people starting to question if he’s still one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. Statistically, there is a case to be made that his performance has declined. He is still remarkably effective at avoiding interceptions, throwing only two all of last season. But he also set a career low in touchdown percentage, and for the fourth straight season averaged less than 7.5 yards per attempt, after being above 8.4 in each of the previous six years.

There is no doubt that Rodgers isn’t performing at the level he used to, and the only question is why. A lot of Packers fans (and Rodgers himself if we’re being honest) lay the blame on Mike McCarthy for running an offense that was light on creativity and easy completions. There’s also a belief that the Packers haven’t invested in giving him proper weapons like he had early in his career, and while they didn’t do anything to fix this problem, there is hope that the coaching change could reinvigorate his game. But if that doesn’t work, if the problem has more to do with Rodgers’s reluctance to make mistakes, he will remain a notch below the greatness that defined the first half of his career, and it will keep the Packers from being competitive in the NFC.

Player to Watch – Aaron Jones, RB

In terms of play in and play out efficiency, there hasn’t been a better running back in the league over the past two years than Jones. He has averaged 5.5 yards per carry in each of the past two seasons, better than any other running back with at least 100 carries. And yet he has only 214 carries over that stretch, not even in the top forty of all running backs.

Yards per carry can be a misleading stat, especially in small sample sizes. But it isn’t like Jones has boosted his numbers by breaking a couple big runs, with only one carry over 50 yards in his career. And yet he also has never reached 20 carries in a game. It will be fascinating to see if the new coaching staff tries to feature him more, and if he can maintain that same efficiency in a larger sample. If he can, he could give the Packers a reliable running game for the first time in years, and take the pressure off of Rodgers’s diminished arm.

Minnesota Vikings

The Upside

The Vikings are a team with their eyes on the Super Bowl, and that’s the best case scenario for them. They obviously weren’t a playoff team a year ago, so they need to look towards what they did to make the team better in the offseason. Their depth along the defensive line seems to have improved, especially if Everson Griffen is back to his old form after a rocky season a year ago both on and off the field. They added a couple pieces to an offensive line that has been the weak point of the roster for several years now, and the health of Dalvin Cook could give a boost to their running game.

But the biggest change they made was on the coaching staff. They kept on Kevin Stefanski as offensive coordinator after he took over in the middle of last season, but more crucially they brought in veteran offensive guru Gary Kubiak to help design their rushing attack. They are converting to a scheme that is a lot heavier on zone runs, under center alignments, and play action, playing to the strengths of their line, of Cook, and of Kirk Cousins. The talent on this roster is mostly the same, but they have hopes for a boost from the changes to the system they’re working in.

The Downside

The downside for the Vikings is more or less what we saw a year ago. There is so much talent up and down this roster that I can’t imagine them finishing with a losing record, barring multiple catastrophic injuries. Their defense will keep them in every game, and their receivers will provide enough big plays down the field that their offense will never be truly suffocated.

But this is a team that went all in on a three year window the day they signed Cousins, and every season that drifts bye is another season closer to that window being closed. Their best players are all sitting in the primes of their careers, and if they aren’t competing for the Super Bowl now, they aren’t going to be competing anytime soon. The pressure is on, and another season falling short of the playoffs could leave them facing some very difficult choices headed into the final year of Cousins’s contract, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they moved on from Mike Zimmer at the season’s end.

Player to Watch – Hercules Mata’afa, DT

I know this roster better than any other, so I’ll go for a bit of a deep pull. Mata’afa is one of the more unique players in the NFL, which is why he ended up going undrafted despite tearing apart the PAC-12 at Washington State. Weighing in at 254 pounds at the Combine, he was something of a positionless questionmark. He doesn’t have the athleticism to play off the ball or on the edge, but he doesn’t have the size to stick in the middle like he did in college. Even after reportedly bulking up to 270 pounds for this season (more or less his first in the league, after missing his rookie year with an injury), he’s still well below the minimum threshold most teams have for defensive tackles.

But Zimmer has always been willing to push the bounds of traditional positions, and he seems intrigued by what he has in Mata’afa. Against the run he could be a genuine liability, but defending the run really isn’t that important for a defense these days. Especially with a deep line like Minnesota’s, where they will be constantly rotating players depending on the situation. Mata’afa could be a perfect situational pass rusher, lightning quick on the inside and with shocking power, capable of collapsing the pocket up the middle while Griffen and Danielle Hunter scream off the edges.

Chicago Bears

The Upside

This division is probably the hardest to pick in the NFL, so don’t put too much weight on the Bears ranking third here. They absolutely have the potential to push past the Packers and the Vikings for the division title, even if I’m a bit more skeptical about their ability to compete for the conference as a whole. Their defense was the best in the league a year ago, and even if they suffer some of the regression I discuss below, they will still be an elite unit capable of containing almost any offense.

The offense is the fascinating part. They were all over the place on that side of the ball a year ago, looking unstoppable at some points and totally lifeless at others. But they are entering year two in Matt Nagy’s system, with a mostly intact depth chart, an intriguing receiving group, and a developing young quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky still needs to demonstrate a lot more consistency, but if he can hit the right groove this year, the Bears can ride his arm and this defense a long way.

The Downside

The Bears were carried by their defense a year ago, and defense-heavy teams are always at higher risk for season to season reversion. Especially one that relied on taking the ball away as much as the Bears did. They led the league with 36 takeaways a year ago, and they turned those takeaways into points at a ridiculous level, returning five interceptions and a fumble for touchdowns. Even if they are able to generate as many takeaways this year as they did last year, they aren’t going to turn one out of six of them into touchdowns, putting the weight back on their offense to put up the points.

And the offense, the offense is still a wild card. While a leap forward could power them to a deep playoff run as I mentioned above, going the opposite direction could prove equally as costly. The Bears had the advantage of playing with a lead for most of last season, and trusting their defense to hold the other team in check they were able to take a lot of pressure off Trubisky’s shoulders. But often a team like this can regress simply based on worse luck earlier in games, falling behind and changing the script for the remainder of the contest. If this happens, the Bears are at serious risk of missing the postseason, and potentially even falling back to six or seven victories.

Player to Watch – Prince Amukamara, CB

No players better represent the red flags for the Bears coming out of last year than their cornerbacks. Entering last season no one expected the secondary to be a strength of their defense, with a pair of former first round picks on the outside whose careers had varied from average to disappointing. Kyle Fuller was a solid player who hadn’t really done anything special in his first three years, while Amukamara was a veteran on his third team with seven up and down seasons under his belt.

No one expected them to combine for ten interceptions a year ago. Amukamara tied his career high with three, after going the previous two seasons without recording a single pick. And Fuller exploded with seven, just one short of matching his career total to that point. How much of this was actual improvement on their part? How much was the benefit of a team playing with a lead against teams that need to throw? Of the two, Fuller is the better player, but I can’t imagine he’ll approach the interception totals he put up last year. If Fuller becomes merely a good cornerback with reasonable interception numbers, and Amukamara returns to the mediocrity that defined his career to this point, the Bears will suddenly be a lot less dynamic on defense, and leave their offense fewer opportunities with a short field ahead of them.

Detroit Lions

The Upside

Detroit has some intriguing young pieces to work with on the offensive side of the ball. Kenny Golladay has improved each of his first two years in the league, and he has the potential to explode into the upper echelon of receiving talent this year. And Kerryon Johnson looked impressive last year before being hampered by injuries. If he can stay healthy, the Lions can commit to the run heavy attack that head coach Matt Patricia has been preaching since he arrived, giving them balance on offense that they haven’t had in the decade with Matthew Stafford under center.

On defense they swapped out the disappointing Ziggy Ansah for Trey Flowers, a player whose reputation in New England more than made up for his middle of the pack stats. In Detroit I expect he’ll be unleashed to wreak more havoc, bringing a combination of run defense and pass rush ability they haven’t had off the edge in a very long time. This will only make life easier for Darius Slay on the back end, as now they have a pair of star talents dedicated to shutting down opposing passing attacks.

The Downside

Detroit’s commitment to not doing anything different after regular failure is almost inspiring. A year ago they finished in the bottom quartile of the league, and besides adding Flowers the only real offseason changes they made were to sign Danny Amendola and to use their top ten selection on tight end TJ Hockenson. Everywhere else they are rolling out the same mediocrity, and I’m not even sure if they expect different results.

Patricia was a disaster in his first season as a head coach, and he should absolutely be coaching for his job this year. Honestly I think the Lions are in a place where they need to start thinking about a total teardown. They’re financially committed to Stafford through at least 2021, but in a tough division and with little going in their favor, I don’t see any reason for them to believe they can compete in that time. Even if everything I mentioned in the section above does come to pass, they aren’t going to even be in competition for a Wild Card spot.

Player to Watch – Marvin Jones, WR

The overall mediocrity and anonymity of the Lions has disguised the fact that they have one of the better receivers in the NFL on their roster. Jones missed seven games a year ago, and even on a per-game basis had his worst performance since arriving in Detroit. He hasn’t ever put up gaudy numbers, with only a single season eclipsing 1000 yards receiving and a career high of 65 catches. But two years ago he led the NFL in yards per reception, and he continues to just make remarkable plays every time he steps onto the field.

With Golladay on one side and Jones on the other, the Lions have a pair of big, physical wide receivers who can both stretch the field and win contested balls at the point of the catch. Both are a bit unrefined as technicians, but they make up for their inconsistency generating separation by just ripping the ball away from defenders. After two years working with each of them, Stafford is now familiar and comfortable enough to just throw it their way and trust them to make a play, covering for his occasional lapses in accuracy by going well outside their frames to make consistent and spectacular plays down the field.