The Matchups That Decided Wild Card Weekend

When breaking down games between teams the first step is usually identifying and comparing relative strengths and weaknesses. A team built around a strong passing game will likely excel against a team with a poor secondary, but could struggle if they try to rely on this passing game against an opponent with a dominant pass defense. During the regular season this sort of analysis is often enough to predict the game. Pittsburgh had the second best passing offense in the league, and Atlanta had the second worst pass defense, so it was no surprise when Pittsburgh tore the Falcons up through the air and beat them in Week Fifteen. When a team has better overall talent than its opponent, one matchup advantage can be enough to decide the game.

Things get a little more complicated in the playoffs, when the teams being matched up are roughly equal in talent level. We can look at these matchups and say that talented passing offenses like Pittsburgh and Baltimore will be able to demolish the shaky secondaries facing them, or that Cincinnati’s offensive line should have no problem handling Indianapolis’s questionable pass rush.

But for every matchup advantage there is a corresponding disadvantage. These teams are in the playoffs because they do some things really well, and they failed to earn a first round bye because there are things they don’t do particularly well. With these strengths and weaknesses balancing each other out, games are usually decided by something going the way we don’t expect. The games this past weekend are perfect examples of what can happen when two evenly matched forces go against each other and one comes out on top.

Cardinals Run Defense vs Panthers Running Game

I’m going to start by making one thing clear. Arizona’s offense meant that anyone could have beaten them, with any offensive performance. Ryan Lindley was atrocious, and the Cardinals weren’t any better running the football. Turnovers kept them in the game through the first half, but a team that can’t even make it to 80 yards of total offense is not going to win any playoff games.

If Arizona had gotten anything from their offense, this game might have been interesting. Arizona’s defense has been phenomenal all season, and on Saturday they gave Cam Newton plenty of problems through the air. Newton’s numbers looked fine for the game, but he was a little bit off the whole day. He missed several open receivers, and he was at least partially responsible for the ugly interception that set up one of Arizona’s scores.

Carolina’s best success offensively came on the ground. This is a bit of a surprise against an Arizona defense that has been strong against the run all season. This is the first team that managed to hold DeMarco Murray under 100 yards, and even with a few struggles against the Seahawks late in the season they still finished ranked seventh in the league against the run. On the surface this looked like a clear advantage for Arizona. Carolina ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing offense, even with a mobile quarterback to bolster their numbers. If they were going to have success running the ball, most expected they would need Newton to create these yards on his own. Simply handing the ball off did not look like a great strategy.

This is where the numbers fall a bit short. Carolina’s running attack struggled for most of the season, but over the past month they have been reignited by the emergence of Jonathan Stewart. During their four game winning streak to close the season Stewart ran for 401 yards on 79 carries, a remarkable average of 5.1 yards per rush that he managed to match this weekend with 123 yards on 24 carries. His performance nearly doubled every other running back this weekend, and he was the main reason for the limited success Carolina found on offense.

The Panthers ran the ball on one of the best defenses in the league this past weekend, and they are going to have to do it again next weekend if they are going to get past the Seahawks. The running game has been the biggest factor in their recent winning streak, and their dominance of Arizona’s stellar run defense has to give them confidence going forward. They will need a lot more to happen if they are going to continue their remarkable run, but it starts on the ground.

Baltimore Pass Rush vs Pittsburgh Pass Protection

As I mentioned above, both Baltimore and Pittsburgh came into this game expecting to have a significant advantage throwing the ball. Pittsburgh boasts one of the league’s top quarterbacks and the best wide receiver in the NFL, and they were facing a secondary decimated by injuries. Baltimore doesn’t boast the same high level of talent as the Steelers, but they have better depth and were facing a secondary that had been even worse than their own over the course of the season.

Neither team managed to do much on the ground, but as we expected both were able to dominate through the air. Joe Flacco continued his playoff hot streak, and when Roethlisberger had time to pass he shredded Baltimore’s patchwork secondary. There, however, was the difference in this game. Baltimore managed to stymie Pittsburgh’s offense because they were able to pressure the quarterback, and the Steelers could not stop the Ravens because they could not get to Flacco. One of these was not particularly surprising. Pittsburgh has had an inconsistent pass rush all season, and Baltimore’s line has held up even through a wave of injuries. 

The matchup on the other side of the ball is much more interesting. Baltimore has had one of the best pass rushes in the league this year, led by Elvis Dumervil and bolstered by Terrelle Suggs and Pernell McPhee. Facing them was the Steelers offensive line, a much maligned unit that came together well as the season went on. Roethlisberger had all the time he could want against Cincinnati in Week Seventeen, and he was only sacked once by Kansas City’s dangerous pass rush in Week Sixteen. The absence of Le'Veon Bell was a major blow to their protection, but they had every one of their starting linemen available to begin the game. If they could hold Baltimore’s pass rush at bay, Roethlisberger would have no trouble dissecting the Ravens defense.

Baltimore's pass rush won this matchup, and it won it quite thoroughly. The rush wasn’t a constant presence in the Steelers backfield, but it appeared often enough to disrupt timing routes and end promising drives. Pittsburgh’s red zone troubles in the first half were partially due to drive killing sacks, and their turnovers late in the game were direct results of the pressure.

Roethlisberger managed to make a few of his typical escapes to turn big plays, but it wasn’t enough to match the offensive production on the other side of the ball. Pittsburgh forced only a single punt by the Ravens. With that defensive performance, the Steelers needed to score at every available opportunity. Baltimore’s pass rush offered just enough protection for their secondary to allow them to outscore the Steelers and win the game.

Cincinnati Run Defense vs Indianapolis Running Game

Like the 4/5 matchup in the NFC, this game pitted a run defense against an evenly matched run offense. Unlike the other game, this was a case of weakness against weakness rather than strength against strength. Indianapolis has struggled all season running the ball, and they only got worse down the stretch after losing Ahmad Bradshaw to injury. They had the good fortune this week that Trent Richardson was sick and unable to contribute, but they still came into this game with Boom Herron as their primary runner. On the opposite side, Cincinnati has one of the bottom five rushing defenses in the league, and they only got worse with the loss of Rey Maualuga, their best run defender, in the first half.

The question became, which was going to give? Indianapolis has a dangerous passing attack, but Cincinnati’s secondary has been playing incredibly well over the past few weeks with the emergence of young cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. They could not sustain the offense they needed just by throwing the ball, especially with injuries slowing TY Hilton.

On the first drive it appeared Indianapolis had the upper hand. They moved the ball the length of the field thanks to a 27 yard run by Herron, a drive capped off by a two yard Herron touchdown run. Their offensive line cleared holes for him, and Cincinnati appeared unable to stop him. If Indianapolis could get that kind of production throughout the game, the Bengals would not be able to keep up.

Something strange happened after that. For the next quarter and a half, Indianapolis simply did not try to run the ball. With their running game this isn’t necessarily a bad decision, but their offense did struggle for a little while as their receivers blundered through a series of dropped passes, leading to long third downs that they were unable to convert. Cincinnati managed to hang with them until the second half, when the Colts went back to their running game and pulled away.

The final numbers don’t look particularly dominating, but Indianapolis was the clear winner of this matchup. Their two running backs combined to have 23 carries for 96 yards, an unspectacular but above average number for their running game. They did their best work in the fourth quarter, running the ball with Zurlon Tipton to bleed the clock and maintain their lead. Indianapolis is the better team, and Cincinnati’s offensive struggles meant that they probably would have won the game no matter what. But the ability to find some success running the football removed any doubt from the outcome.

Detroit Defensive Line vs Dallas Offensive Line

This was the premier matchup of the weekend. The best offensive line in the league against one of the top three defensive lines in the league. With both teams facing questions on the other side of the ball, they looked towards the strengths that have gotten them through the season. Dallas had a top five offense this year thanks to their line, which ranked as the best run blocking group in the league using Football Outsider’s Adjusted Line Yards statistic. Detroit made the playoffs thanks to a top three defense built around their defensive line. As soon as it was announced that Ndamukong Suh would be allowed to play, this became the matchup to watch.

Before I go any further, I want to take a quick moment to address the controversial moment in this game. Facing a third and one on the Dallas 46 with 8:25 left in the fourth quarter, Matthew Stafford threw a prayer in the direction of Brandon Pettigrew. The defender did not turn to make a play on the ball, and the back judge threw a flag for defensive pass interference, which would have given the Lions a first down in field goal range. After some discussion, the referees decided to pick up the flag.

This was a difficult call that could have gone either way, but I believe they made the correct decision. There was barely any contact on the play, and most of it was initiated by Pettigrew extending his arm to try to create separation. The defender gets very little benefit of the doubt because he did not turn his head towards the ball, but the rule requires there to be some contact that affects the receiver for a penalty to be called. There was no such contact. Had the official made the correct call and not thrown the penalty to begin with, no one would have an issue. The referee crew handled this as poorly as they possibly could, but they probably made the right call in the end. And it probably wouldn’t have mattered if Detroit had done the smart thing and gone for it on fourth and one in Cowboys territory. Jim Caldwell did far more to cost the Lions this game than the referees did.

But back to the discussion at hand. This battle was more competitive than any I discussed above, just as this game was more competitive than any of the others. In fact, the fate of this game swung roughly on the same track as the battle between the lines. During the first half the Lions absolutely dominated Dallas up front. Detroit is not typically a blitzing team, but knowing the opposition they were facing they decided to bring heavy pressure from their linebackers and safeties. Dallas wasn’t ready for this, and all their play calls were designed to require excellent run blocking or pass protection to get receivers down the field. They did not get this in the first half, and they only managed seven points on one big pass play.

Halftime gave the Cowboys the opportunity to make adjustments, and these adjustments turned the fortune of this battle. They came out in the second half using more three receiver sets than at the beginning. This forced the Lions into a nickel defense, spreading them out and limiting the pressure packages they could bring. DeMarco Murray finally found some holes to run through, and Tony Romo no longer had to worry about five or six defenders bearing down on him every time he dropped back.

The end result was still more competitive than I expected. I underrated Detroit’s defensive line somewhat coming into this game, particularly Suh. He played one of the best games of his career, tearing through the line on a regular basis to get after Romo. But the Cowboys held up often enough for Romo to attack down field, and they were able to find holes in Detroit’s secondary that most teams had been unable to exploit this season. As a whole, I would say that Detroit’s defensive line won the battle. But Dallas’s offensive line did enough to let them win the game.