Super Bowl Preview Part Two

On Wednesday I started off my Super Bowl preview by looking at the matchup between the offense of the Seahawks and the defense of the Patriots. Each side has different advantages and disadvantages over its opponent, but in the end I thought that Seattle’s strength and versatility in the running game would give them the edge. This will go a long way towards determining the winner of the Super Bowl, but it turns out there are a couple more units who will see the field on Sunday.

New England’s offense is not the historically dominant unit it was a couple years ago, but they are still a very dangerous and versatile attack, well coached with an intriguing blend of talent. Seattle’s defense is historically dominant, even though it’s fallen off a little from last year, when they shut down a better Broncos offense in this same game. If they are able to repeat that performance they can earn themselves another Championship, but New England's offense is not going to go quietly.

Seattle’s Advantage

Much has been made of Seattle’s historically great pass defense over the past few seasons, but over the course of this year they have actually been better against the run. The only running backs to gain 100 yards against them were Jamaal Charles and DeMarco Murray, and in only four other games did a running back eclipse 50 yards. The loss of Brandon Mebane and Bobby Wagner gave them some issues stopping the run during the middle of the season, but Wagner has returned and they have found a suitable replacement for Mebane in veteran Kevin Williams. Michael Bennett has been one of the best run stopping defensive ends in the league over the past few seasons, and the safety combination of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are devastating in run support.

New England’s running game should not scare them. The Patriots ranked in the middle of the league this year in running offense, but in many ways the statistics overstate how good they are. When things are going well, the Patriots are happy to hand the ball off play after play, as they did against the Colts both times they played this season. When things aren’t going well, they abandon the run altogether, as they did against Baltimore. This is not a team that can impose their will on the opposition, and I expect them to turn away from the running attack fairly early.

On Wednesday I wrote about how Seattle’s questionable corps of receivers match up poorly against New England’s fantastic secondary. Well the Seahawks secondary is even better, and the Patriots receivers may actually be worse. Julian Edelman would make an excellent number three receiver, but as a number one he is hopelessly mediocre. Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola are with the Patriots solely because no one else in the league wanted them. They’ve been producing at a reasonable level over the past few weeks thanks to impressive play from their quarterback and mediocre opposing secondaries, but they can’t count on having their way with Seattle’s cornerbacks.

The Seahawks defensive scheme is built around an unusual type of Cover 3. In a traditional Cover 3, the deep section of the field is split into three zones that are handled either by a pair of safeties and a cornerback or a pair of cornerbacks and a safety. This is considered a safe defense, forcing teams to check down rather than risk throwing it over the top. But over the past few years Pete Carroll and his staff have added a wrinkle to this coverage, creating a hybrid man-zone scheme that allows their defenders to play more aggressive at the line of scrimmage.

Seattle’s cornerbacks are big, and they are very physical. They begin most plays by pressing the opposing receivers at the line of scrimmage to disrupt their timing and knock them off their routes. New England’s weakness as an offense is their inability to attack over the top. They are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to throwing deep, and Seattle should be even less concerned than normal about receivers getting behind them. They can be as aggressive as they want in challenging receivers at the line, knowing the opposing quarterback isn’t capable of dropping the ball perfectly over their heads.

The underrated part of Seattle’s defense is the intelligence of their players. Their cornerbacks are experts at reading the play, bailing deep if someone is attempting to run behind them or staying tight to guard against a quick throw. This is a very tricky thing to ask of players, but when it succeeds it allows the upside of both press man coverage and the safety of a Cover 3.

 

The intelligence of Seattle’s defense gives them another edge over the teams that have played New England the past few weeks. Much has been made of New England’s use of eligible and ineligible receivers to confuse the defense, racing down the field with four offensive linemen against Baltimore then tearing Indianapolis apart using six. Against the Ravens they used a bit of underhanded trickery, having a receiver declare himself ineligible at the last possible second to make sure the Ravens had no time to adjust. They switched it up against Indianapolis, using a six linemen with Cameron Fleming declaring himself as an eligible receiver throughout the game, lulling the Colts into a routine before switching it up and declaring Nate Solder as the eligible target, leading to an easy touchdown pass.

They will likely try some of these same tricks against the Seahawks, but I don’t expect them to be as successful. Seattle’s defenders are among the smartest and the best coached in the league, and they are very rarely confused when on the field. An extra week of preparation will only help, giving them time to practice the simple diagnosis necessary to determine who is or isn’t eligible. As long as a team is ready for it, there is no advantage to New England’s strategy. They will just end up with an inferior player going out as a receiver, and Seattle’s defenders will have no trouble shutting it down. Trickeration will not work for New England this time around. If they are going to score against Seattle, they will have to do so through a standard passing attack.

New England’s Advantage

New England’s offensive line will not be able to open holes for the running game, but they should be able to protect their quarterback. Ever since their disastrous loss to Kansas City this has been one of the best pass blocking offensive lines in the league, and assuming center Brian Stork plays they should be set up to handle the Seahawks pass rush.

This offensive line has had vastly different performances in its two playoff games. Against Baltimore’s dangerous front seven they were torn to pieces, but Indianapolis’s mediocre unit couldn’t get near the quarterback. Seattle’s pass rush is somewhere in between. They have a couple excellent rushers in Bennett and Cliff Avril, but on the whole they aren’t a particularly dangerous unit. They don’t blitz very often, and their interior rush is nothing special. Bennett and Avril have both transitioned to full time roles after sharing time with Chris Clemons and Red Bryant last year, and they occasionally show signs of wearing down as the game goes on.

Seattle struggled on defense early in the year almost entirely because their pass rush wasn’t getting to the quarterback. Their coverage wasn’t as flawless as we’re used to seeing, and quarterbacks were able to wait to find the seams in their zone. The pass rush improved over the second half of the season, but they still have to be worried about what will happen if the Patriots can keep Brady untouched. Given time Brady can find a hole in any defense, and even though age has started to catch up with him he still has the timing and the precision to thread the ball through the tight windows between Seattle’s athletic defenders.

Assuming Brady can find time, there are ways they can exploit Seattle’s coverage down the field. Shane Vereen poses matchup problems, especially if teams continue to be stupid enough to put a linebacker on him. Seattle has some incredibly athletic players in their linebacker corps, but they can’t keep up with a player like Vereen, who is essentially a wide receiver at this point. Seattle may be smart enough to treat him as such, but I think there is a good chance that Brady will see his speedy “running back” matched up man on man with a linebacker, an easy opportunity for a shot downfield.

The other matchup advantage the Patriots have is, obviously, Rob Gronkowski. Whether split out, in the slot, or on the end of the line, Gronkowski poses a problem for any defender they put across from him. He’s too big for most of their defensive backs, too good a route runner for their linebackers, and strong enough on the ball to negate Seattle’s normal advantage on contested passes. Seattle has struggled at times against tight ends this year, and Gronkowski is a matchup like nothing they’ve faced.

Seattle will undoubtedly focus a lot of their efforts on stopping New England’s dominant tight end. The likely course seems to be using Chancellor to follow him across the field, the only player on their defense who can match him for size, strength, and athleticism. They will also likely have a lot of double teams sent his direction, either Earl Thomas playing over the top or one of their linebackers dropping to cut off a seam pass.

Gronkowski will have his opportunities, but he may be even more valuable as a decoy. Seattle’s coverage has been exploited a couple times this season on basic switches, two receivers on the same side crossing on deep routes. Byron Maxwell has been particularly vulnerable, occasionally following the outside receiver into Earl Thomas’s zone and letting a receiver from the slot run uncovered down the sideline. With Gronkowski drawing so much attention the Patriots could easily set up another such miscommunication. Line Gronkowski up split wide with either Edelman or Amendola in the slot, then have him run a post pattern towards Thomas while the inside receiver wheels up the sideline behind him. Thomas will easily be able to cut off the throw on the post, but there is a chance Maxwell could become confused and bite inside, giving New England a rare shot over the top.

Seattle’s pass coverage isn’t invulnerable, but the opportunities are going to be minimal. New England will need to play a mistake free game, avoiding turnovers and hitting on every available opportunity. Brady can certainly get hot and find his rhythm, but increasingly over the past few years he has suffered streaks of inaccuracy, especially on throws deep. He doesn’t have to be perfect for them to win this game, but they won’t be able to move the ball unless he plays at a high level.

X Factor

When I broke down the uncertain factor of the matchup between Seattle’s offense and New England’s defense, I ended up looking at a case of weakness against weakness. On this side of the ball, the part of the game that is up in the air is a case of strength against strength. If New England is going to be able to move the ball they are going to have to do it through the air, but against this Seahawks team they will have even more trouble than normal throwing deep. They are going to need to be incredibly successful on shorter, quicker throws, the part of their offense that has been consistently excellent throughout the season.

The Patriots have struggled all season when attempting to attack down the field, but they have found success in the passing game thanks to their dominance on short throws. This reached its peak during the second half of the divisional round matchup with Baltimore. After struggling early to stop the Ravens pass rush, New England switched to an attack almost exclusively consisting of quick, easy throws. Brady tore the Ravens to pieces on these throws, completing all 22 passes he attempted within two seconds of receiving the snap, totaling 209 yards and three touchdowns.

Seattle’s Cover 3 scheme works very well to stop completions down the field, but as I addressed above it also takes away many of the quicker throws normally given up by three deep schemes. Their cornerbacks are massive and strong, and they can wipe a receiver out of the play just by getting their hands on him at the line of scrimmage. Even if the receiver can elude them, the quarterback still has to worry about the linebackers dropping into underneath zones. Seattle has the longest and most athletic collection of linebackers in the league, and they squeeze the normally small windows on slant and hook patterns into essentially nothing.

Brady just so happens to be one of the few quarterbacks in the league capable of hitting these windows. Accuracy has always been the strongest part of his game, that and recognizing exactly where he needs to throw the ball before it is even snapped. He can see when a linebacker is cheating towards the line, opening a hole behind him for an easy dump off. He can recognize when one of his receivers has leverage on a press defender, and he can get the ball out of his hand as soon as it gets back to him. If there is a hole to exploit on Seattle’s defense, he will find it.

The bigger concern is again on the outside with the wide receivers. Physically speaking, it would be difficult to get a larger contrast in physical makeup than New England’s receivers and Seattle’s cornerbacks. LaFell is 6’2”, but every other Patriots wide receiver is below six feet in height. Seattle’s cornerbacks are all taller than that, and most outweigh New England’s receivers as well.

Whoever wins the matchup at the line will go a long way to determining who wins this game. Seattle’s cornerbacks have the strength to push around the opposing receivers, but New England’s players may be quick enough to slip away from the press coverage. If I had to make a prediction, I would go with the superior players on the Seahawks side of the ball. Edelman and Amendola are quick in tight spaces, but they aren’t used to facing defenders with the length and strength of Seattle’s.

I think Seattle has the ability to close off most of New England’s quick passing attack, and I think this will give them the ability to shut down the Patriots offense. They have the edge on this side of the ball, and they have a similar (if smaller) edge on the other side too. They are the more complete team from top to bottom, and they should repeat as Super Bowl Champions.