Championship Preview

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks

Packers Defense vs Seahawks Offense

There are some parallels that can be drawn between these units. Both play second fiddle to a superior and more notorious side of the ball, and both are better than they are given credit for. Green Bay’s defense has a lot of holes, but they have been able to hold up well enough for most of the year thanks to their front seven. Seattle’s offense relies on the combo of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, but they have some intriguing playmakers on the outside as well. On their own no one would be particularly impressed with these two units, but as complementary pieces they can lift a team to a championship level.

Green Bay’s strength defensively is along the front. Tramon Williams can make an occasional play, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix put together a solid rookie season, and Sam Shields is highly paid, but on the whole their secondary is more of a liability than anything else. They have managed to put together an above average pass defense thanks to the pressure they can get on the quarterback.

Clay Matthews is the most crucial piece of this defensive front, but they have improved this year thanks to the addition of Julius Peppers and the growth of Mike Daniels. This newfound versatility allowed them to make the high profile move of Matthews to inside linebacker. This hasn’t had the results in the running game that many had hoped, but it has given them the ability to attack with a more diverse pass rush, calling for some interior blitzes during early down situations to disrupt the opposing quarterback’s timing. They still bounce Matthews outside in most passing situations, and he probably spends more time playing on the edge than the interior these days. But the expansion of his role has given their defense much needed variety over the second half the season.

Their front seven is stronger against the pass than the run, and this is where Green Bay’s defense gets into trouble. They were abysmal against the run early in the year, allowing this Seahawks team to rush for over 200 yards in the season opener. Their numbers improved some late in the year, but that was mostly a product of playing miserable rushing attacks or in games where they had a lead from start to finish. They started strong against Dallas last week, but by the second half the Cowboys could get just about anything they wanted on the ground.

Seattle’s offensive line isn’t as good as Dallas’s, but their offense is set up to exploit Green Bay’s greatest weakness—tackling. Even when Packers defenders are in position to make a play, they aren’t always able to convert it. This is absolute death against a running back like Lynch. He’s lost a bit of a step this year, and he is no longer the consistent churner he’s been in the past. But when he is able to get past the front line of the defense he wreaks havoc in an opposing secondary. If the Packers aren’t able to contain Lynch in the box on a play by play basis, he will tear his way through the poor tackling defensive backs.

This game could easily develop into a blowout, and the only way Green Bay keeps Seattle’s offense from running away is if they get a little lucky. The Seahawks occasionally will go through a dry spell on offense, going a quarter or even a half without being able to consistently move the ball. So far they have always managed to bounce back late in the game, thanks to an explosive run from Lynch or a dynamic play by Wilson.

The Packers have to hope that Seattle comes out cold early on, giving Green Bay’s offense a chance to put a couple scores on the board. If they can play with a lead, they can limit the damage of the running game and become aggressive about attacking Wilson. The Seahawks don’t make a lot of mistakes, but if Green Bay can force a turnover they might have a chance to keep this a low scoring game. However, if Seattle’s offense comes out rolling to start the game, this could get out of hand very quickly.

Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

These are the two marquee units on the field this weekend, and this is where I think Seattle will win the game. If the Seahawks offense can put up points this game is essentially over, and even if Green Bay manages to contain them it will be an uphill battle. Over the past two months Seattle has had the best defense in the NFL, and the Green Bay offense they are facing is not the same one that tore through the league during the middle of the season.

This conversation begins, as all conversations about the Packers offense do, with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was the best quarterback in the league this season, and he will likely take home the MVP Award when it is announced in a couple weeks. During the middle of the season there was a stretch where he and this offense looked unstoppable. He came back to Earth somewhat in December, but he was still playing at a high enough level to carry his team as far as they needed to go.

But that was before his calf injury. No one had any idea how serious it was when he hurt it in Week Sixteen against the Buccaneers, and that uncertainty remained through a strange game against the Lions up until the beginning of last week. It was only in the first half of the game against the Cowboys that we realized just how much the injury was affecting him. Rodgers was not himself in the first half against Dallas, and even during his effective play in the second half it was clear there was something wrong with him. He missed several throws towards the sideline that he normally puts within inches of his target. He struggled moving to the line of scrimmage from one play to the next, hindering the Packers ability to run any sort of hurry up to keep the defense of balance. Most critically, he showed absolutely no ability to escape the pocket to make the plays that turn him from a very good quarterback into the best in the game.

The Packers won last week because Dallas has one of the worst pass rushes in the league. Against even league average pressure, Rodgers would have been torn to pieces. In the first half Dallas managed to get to him several times, but as the game wore on their inability to challenge the quarterback gave Rodgers the time he needed to pick them apart in the back end. Even on one leg Rodgers remains an intelligent and accurate passer, but the loss of mobility drops him to a Matt Ryan style player, capable of exploiting a defense if given time but incapable of making plays on his own.

If there is one matchup that will decide this game, it would be Seattle’s pass rush against Green Bay’s pass protection. The Packers offensive line is better than most people realize, especially when it comes to protecting the quarterback. Rodgers’s mobility has helped them a lot this year, but they did a fine job standing up against admittedly mediocre competition last week. Seattle’s pass rush is a completely different monster. They don’t have the depth they did last year, but Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril have stepped up their game late in the season. Bruce Irvin adds another threat off the blitz, and with their coverage on the back end they have plenty of time to get after the quarterback. Rodgers will be a sitting duck in the pocket, and he will fold if any pressure gets remotely close to him.

The burden falls to Green Bay’s wide receivers. If they are going to be able to pass the ball, the receivers need to create separation on their own. This is easier said than done against the best secondary in the league. We all know about Richard Sherman, but Byron Maxwell on the other side is an above average cornerback as well. He missed most of the game against the Panthers due to an illness, but he should return for the matchup with the Packers. This covers the one weakness exploited by Carolina, the mediocre play of Tharold Simon. The Panthers wide receivers were able to beat him repeatedly, and if he was forced to start again it’s a sure thing the Packers would have done the same. Now they will have to attack him as a nickel man in the slot, a position he is much more comfortable playing.

The only hope the Packers have is that they might be able to run the ball. Jonathan Stewart found some success against Seattle’s run defense, and he has a similar physical style to Eddie Lacy’s. Even with Rodgers hobbled the Seahawks will likely keep only six or seven players in the box, and their linebackers are built more for speed than for strength. Lacy won’t bust any big runs, but he may be able to chew out for or five yards consistently if Green Bay’s line can hold up against Seattle’s front.

The best case scenario for the Packers requires a dominant performance from their offensive line, some hard running from Lacy, and a disappearing act from Seattle’s offense. While not out of the question, it’s a bit hard to picture at this point. Fully healthy this would be a great matchup of the NFL’s best offense against the NFL’s best defense, but unless Rodgers makes a miraculous recovery I struggle to see the Packers reaching 20 points.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense

After seemingly years of pleading from fans and the media, it seems the Colts have finally given up on their running game. Over the past few seasons they have been stubbornly committed to the idea of a balanced offense, even though they have the best young quarterback in the league and a running back corps that could politely be called flotsam. But despite holding a lead for most of their two playoff games they’ve called passes on 92 of their 141 plays, a ratio that would have ranked as the fourth most pass heavy in the league this year.

The weight of scoring will fall onto Andrew Luck, and he will have his work cut out for him against one of the best secondaries in the league. In their two games against New England over the past two seasons the Colts scored a total of 42 points. Luck threw four interceptions against the Patriots in the playoffs last year, and he threw another during their regular season meeting earlier this year.

New England has managed to stifle Luck without being able to get much pressure on him. They sacked him three times in their victory last year but only once earlier this season, and I don’t expect they’ll have much more success this week. The Patriots pass rush has improved since the return of Chandler Jones from injury, but this is still a below average unit going against an offensive line that has played very well when fully healthy.

In order to stop the Colts the Patriots will need to match up with them on the outside. It will be very interesting to watch how they manage the matchups. Over the course of the season—most notably against the Colts themselves—the Patriots have played their cornerbacks based on matchups. But rather than matching their best against the opponent’s best, they will usually put Darelle Revis on the second best receiver and double team the top target. Revis followed Reggie Wayne the first time these teams played this season, while the combination of a second cornerback and a safety over the top contained TY Hilton.

This is the ideal matchup against a pair of wide receivers like those in Indianapolis. Revis might not have the physical skills to chase Hilton anymore, but his mastery of technique can match a clever veteran like Wayne. This worked very well for them the first time around, but I’m not convinced they’ll do it again. Wayne’s production has fallen off as the season has gone along, and he had only a single reception over their two playoff games. Luck has begun utilizing his tight ends more, trusting Coby Fleener down the field and Dwayne Allen as a dumpoff option. Allen missed most of the game the first time they played, and Fleener struggled with inconsistency until late in the year. Add in the development of Donte Moncrief, and this is a much deeper receiving corps than the last time these teams played.

If the Colts ever get Revis matched up in single coverage on Hilton, it is the perfect opportunity to hit a big play. They will need to take advantage of these opportunities when they present themselves, and Luck can’t afford to make any mistakes. Interceptions have been an issue throughout his career, and even last week against the Broncos he threw a pair of ill advised deep passes that turned into picks. The interceptions haven’t proven costly yet this season, but the Patriots will make him pay if he does this against them. He has to walk a fine line between being aggressive and being smart, and he has to hope to get a little lucky. If he can play at the level he was at early in the season, when he torched opposing defenses without surrendering the ball, the Colts can absolutely score enough points to win this game.

Colts Defense vs Patriots Offense

The Colts offense has had some struggles against the Patriots the past two times these teams faced each other. Their defense has been simply terrible. In both games the Patriots went over 40 points, and in both games they had a running back eclipse 150 yards. Last year in the playoffs it was LeGarrette Blount, running for 166 yards and four touchdowns. Earlier this year Jonas Gray matched that touchdown number and made it all the way to 200 yards.

Stopping the run has been the biggest problem for the Colts against the Patriots, and you have to assume that’s how New England will try to attack them. The Patriots did not hand off the ball a single time in the second half against the Ravens, but it would shock no one if they reversed that and went run heavy this week. The one problem will be the possible absence of starting center Bryan Stork. If he is unable to play, they will not just have to shuffle around players on the rest of their line. They will also be limited in their ability to play with six offensive linemen as they did so effectively against the Colts the past two years. Last week against Baltimore they ran several high profile plays with only four linemen on the field, but these were gimmicks that the Colts should be able to adjust to this week. More likely than not, the Patriots will be forced to work with just the standard five man line.

There is another reason for the Colts to be optimistic. After their disastrous playoff performance against New England last season, the Colts went out in free agency and brought in run stuffing defensive lineman Arthur Jones from Baltimore to bolster their front. Jones didn’t play in the first game between these teams, and it is fair to wonder how his presence might have affected Jonas Gray’s production. Going against a banged up offensive line for a team that has been inconsistent running the ball this season, I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of these performances from Indianapolis’s run defense.

It is difficult to know what to expect from the Colts pass defense against the Patriots if they can stop the run, because we simply haven’t seen it over the past two years. Brady’s combined statistics don’t look great—32/55 for 455 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions—but he hasn’t been asked to shoulder much of a load against them. He also played last year’s game without his most dangerous weapon Rob Gronkowski, who absolutely shredded the Colts in their game earlier this year.

There is reason to think that Indianapolis might be able to pose problems for New England’s defense. I expected Baltimore to present issues last week thanks to the pressure created by their front seven, and that was absolutely the case in the first half. But in the second half New England adjusted, turning to a bunch of quick passes to beat the dangerous pass rush. On passes thrown in under two seconds Brady was an insane 22/22 for 209 yards and three touchdowns. These quick timing routes have always been the strength of his game, and against Baltimore’s brutal secondary they were all he needed to get his team over the top.

In a lot of ways the Colts defense is a complete opposite of Baltimore’s. They don’t generate much pressure on the quarterback, but their secondary plays excellent coverage across the field, led in particular by cornerback Vontae Davis. They shut down the Broncos offense last week by playing press man coverage across the board, daring Peyton Manning to beat them deep. A similar strategy would be smart against New England in this game. Brady isn’t suffering from injuries as Manning was, but the deep pass has been the weakness of the Patriots offense all season long. If the Colts can disrupt the timing throws and get Brady off rhythm, they can stymie New England’s attack.

This game will be closer than most people expect, and it is not absurd to imagine the Colts pulling off the upset. They have the better quarterback, and they have a defense that could cause problems if they manage to stop the run. But I still think the Patriots will win, thanks to their major advantage in coaching. Chuck Pagano is a good motivator who gets his players to give their best, but he isn’t an innovator in the way Belichick is. The Patriots will come out and do something we don’t expect, and the Colts will always be a step behind when it comes time to adjust. This doesn’t mean that Indianapolis can’t win. It just means they have to do a lot on the field in order to make up for this disadvantage.