Super Bowl Preview Part One

As you may or may not be aware, there is a rather important football game occurring this weekend. Because it is so important (and because I have absolutely nothing better to do) I will be splitting my preview into two separate parts. First I will look at the less notable of the two matchups, Seattle’s offense going against New England’s defense.

These two units are very similar in that they are often overlooked and underrated by those focusing on the other sides of the ball. But both can control games in their own way, and both have been crucial in getting these teams to this point. To break them down I’ll start by listing all the ways in which New England has an advantage, followed by the areas in which Seattle should have the edge. At the very end I’ll talk about what I think the biggest X Factor is, the matchup that could go either way and will likely decide who comes out on top.

New England’s Advantage

New England’s greatest defensive strength is their pass coverage. After struggling to match up with Denver’s deep group of receivers last season, the Patriots went out and added Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis in free agency, reshaping their secondary and giving them one of the best coverage units in the league. They had some issues against the Ravens in the divisional round, but they shut down Andrew Luck and the Colts in the championship game. Luck had absolutely nowhere to throw the ball, as talented receivers like TY Hilton and Coby Fleener struggled to create separation against this dominant secondary.

They will have an even greater than normal advantage against Seattle in the Super Bowl. Everyone has been debating Seattle’s receiving corps for the past two years, whether they are underrated, overrated, or properly rated. They certainly haven’t been a liability, and there is some logic behind Doug Baldwin’s claims that they are underappreciated because they are a bunch of undrafted players in a run heavy scheme. But the simple fact is that—while they do have their strengths—they do not excel at creating separation off the initial routes. They weren’t very good last year, and the losses of Percy Harvin and Golden Tate have not made them any better. Last week against Green Bay we saw just how much they can struggle against a secondary that is playing well. Until late in the game they were not able to give any space for Russell Wilson to throw the ball, and he was forced into uncharacteristic mistakes because of this.

New England’s cornerbacks and safeties are superior to Green Bay’s across the board, and they should be able to match Seattle’s receivers on their routes. If I had to guess, I would expect to see Revis shadowing Baldwin while Browner and the other cornerbacks switch off on the speedier but less technically impressive Jermaine Kearse. The depth in the Patriots secondary is far better than in Seattle’s receiving corps, and I expect the Seahawks will spend most of the game in two back or two tight end sets, keeping New England out of their nickel package.

If Seattle’s wide receivers cannot create separation, they will be forced to rely on their running backs and their tight ends in the passing game. Marshawn Lynch is serviceable as a receiver, but he isn’t a threat the Patriots have to worry about on every play. They will be better served sending their linebackers and their safeties after Seattle’s tight ends. In the matchup against the underneath receivers, New England again has the advantage. Jamie Collins and Devin McCourtey are two of the best coverage players in the league at their respective positions, and Dont’a Hightower is solid dropping into coverage as well. They should have no trouble running with Seattle’s interior receivers.

The depth of good coverage options among their linebackers and safeties gives them the versatility to counter Wilson’s scrambling ability. If they had only one linebacker who could match him athletically, they would be forced into using this player as a spy on every passing play, predictability that Wilson would be able to exploit. But because they can trust multiple linebackers and safeties to keep up with the tight ends and running backs, they can switch off who has the responsibility to spy the quarterback, leaving him uncertain before the snap whether his escape lane is to the right, the left, or up the middle. Wilson will still bust loose for a run or two, and he will still create problems behind the line of scrimmage. But the Patriots have players who can chase him from sideline to sideline, and with the coverage holding up behind them they will have the ability to be aggressive in going after the quarterback.

Seattle’s Advantage

The Seahawks will be able to run the ball against New England. They’ve been able to run the ball against pretty much everyone this season, ending up leading the league in rushing DVOA. This was despite an offensive line that struggled at times due to injuries to center Max Unger and left tackle Russell Okung. When both of them have been healthy this offensive line has had no trouble opening holes for their runners, not that they’ve needed it.

Lynch continues to just churn out running yards, as indifferent to the opposing defense as he is to media questions. He was spectacular against Green Bay last weekend, running for 157 yards on 25 carries when the rest of their offense looked incapable of doing anything remotely positive. New England’s run defense is better than Green Bay’s, and Lynch won’t be as dominant in the Super Bowl as he was during the NFC Championship Game. But he matches up well against New England’s athletic but undersized linebackers. They excel at chasing backs down from behind rather than stuffing them in the hole, and Lynch should be able to fight through contact for additional yards.

Wilson will play an even more crucial role than normal in the running game. The best running quarterback in the league this season, he was quiet for most of the game against the Packers before Seattle pulled out their read option package late in the game. I addressed above my concerns that he will have trouble gaining yards by scrambling against New England, and while this is the most effective part of his running game, he can still exploit a defense on designed carries. Seattle tried to minimize these throughout the regular season in order to protect their quarterback, but in the Super Bowl I expect them to go to the read option early and often.

The Patriots have not faced many opportunities against the read option this year. The only team they played that runs this scheme on a consistent basis is Miami, and the first time these two teams faced each other was in Week One, before the Dolphins instituted the read option as a heavy part of their playbook. In the second game Ryan Tannehill had three carries for 21 yards, an effective performance not entirely earned through read option plays. Bill Belichick is one of the best defensive minds in football, and I trust that he will have ideas on how to counter this scheme. But it is hard to know how the players on the field will react without having seen it in person.

The reason I think they will struggle against Seattle’s read option attack goes back to their game against Baltimore. The Ravens boast one of the league’s best zone running attacks, and they ran all over New England to the tune of 136 yards on 28 attempts. Seattle doesn’t run a zone scheme of the same style as Baltimore’s, but the defensive principals for stopping their attack are very similar. The running backs attack the line looking for a cutback crease, exploiting any slippage in a defense’s discipline. Any open lane is a hole for the runner, and any linebacker who doesn’t fill properly leaves a massive vulnerability in their defense.

Hightower is one of the best linebackers in the league when it comes to filling against the run, but the rest of New England’s defense cannot say the same. Justin Forsett had whatever cutbacks he wanted against them, and against the versatility of Seattle’s read option they will have to be even more disciplined. Many read option plays do in fact use a zone blocking scheme, leading to the often misused term “zone read” to describe non-zone read option plays. New England’s linebackers are very talented, but they are still young and inexperienced when it comes to erecting disciplined fronts against the run.

Seattle will be able to gain yards on the ground against New England, and with their defense this might be enough to win the game. But in all likelihood they will also need something from their passing attack, which could prove a problem as I discussed above. There is, however, reason to believe they can find success despite the Patriots secondary. Because as mediocre as Seattle’s receivers are at creating separation on normal routes, it is a completely different story when the play breaks down.

Common wisdom is that when a quarterback escapes the pocket, the receivers should move back towards him to present easy throws. But the best quarterbacks outside the pocket are those like Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger, who can deliver the ball accurately down the field while on the move. These two have receivers who understand their quarterback’s strengths and know that they can break down the field when their quarterback eludes the rush. Even though Seattle’s receivers aren’t on the level of Antonio Brown or Jordy Nelson, they do have the intelligence to break deep when Wilson escapes.

The most underrated part of Wilson’s game is his arm strength. Because he is so small, people seem to assume he doesn’t have the ability to launch the ball sixty yards in the air. He absolutely does, and he throws one of the prettier deep balls in the league while on the run. If he is able to elude the pass rush, he can draw the eyes of the safeties, trapping them in place while Baldwin or Kearse breaks deep. If the safeties remain disciplined he can take it and run, but if they don’t he can throw it over their heads, creating the big plays needed to break this game open.

X Factor

There is one matchup in this game I haven’t touched on yet, and that is because I’m not sure who has the advantage. That matchup is Seattle’s offensive line against New England’s pass rush, and whoever wins it will likely be the side that controls the game. For neither team is this area a particular strength, but both have shown enough flashes of competence to convince themselves that they have the edge.

Seattle’s line is very strong in the running game, but even when healthy they have struggled protecting their quarterback. The Seahawks rank in the bottom half of the league in adjusted sack rate, and Wilson was pressured on nearly half of his dropbacks this season. This wasn’t entirely on the offensive line. Wilson holds the ball a long time, knowing he has the ability to escape and not trusting his receivers to create quick separation. And at times the pass protection has looked competent, especially when they’re fully healthy as they are now.

Against a team with an elite pass rush I would be worried about the Seahawks, but New England is not equipped to take advantage of this weakness. Their pass rush is incredibly one dimensional, relying almost entirely on edge pressure from Chandler Jones. When he was injured during the middle of the season they struggled to get pressure on the opposing quarterback, and at times this year their pass rush has utterly vanished when he’s had a bad game. Collins and Hightower showed some flashes on interior blitzes over the second half of the season, but if they want to get sustained pressure on the quarterback they will need Jones to play the game of his life.

Even if this happens, they may be in trouble when it comes to containing Wilson. Bringing him down often requires multiple rushers to defeat their blockers, and if he eludes the first defender he can usually escape the pocket and give his receivers time to separate downfield. 

There are a couple of ways New England can counter this. The first would be to try to generate pressure on blitzes, trusting their secondary to hold up in one on one situations. The concern about blitzes would be that they may open up holes to be attacked in the running game, leaving their safeties matched up one on one with Lynch or Wilson in the open field. They will have to take care to only run blitzes that maintain gap integrity, limiting their ability to be creative going after the passer.

The other possibility would be to put even more responsibility on the defender responsible for spying Wilson. If they trust Jones to at least force Wilson out of the pocket, they can use this as a key to tell their spy to attack in the backfield. There is the risk that the spy could get out of position and end up caught in the wash, but if they can fight their way through they can work as a sort of delayed blitz, pinning Wilson against the sideline and cutting off his ability to attack downfield.

If I had to guess what will happen here, I would say that Seattle has the edge. Wilson is just too dynamic for New England’s pass rush to contain, and the Patriots don’t have enough threats along their front to truly bother Seattle’s protection. New England can still pull this one out with a great performance from Jones and clever strategy from their coaches, but in the end I think Seattle will control the line of scrimmage well enough to hit several shots downfield.