Constructing an Upset

Despite an occasional attempt to argue otherwise, a first round bye in the NFL playoffs is a major advantage. Since the institution of the twelve team field in 1990, the teams that earned the first round bye have combined to go 70-26. The benefits of home field advantage and a week of rest are difficult to measure, but even with these factors included it is hard to argue the simplest explanation. These teams are simply better than the ones they’re facing.

Even so, this year looks like an extreme case. For some time now it’s been clear that most people have viewed the Broncos, Patriots, Packers, and Seahawks as head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Very few people picked one of the teams playing in the wild card round to make it to the Super Bowl, and last week every commentator seemed to go out of their way to mention that the true Super Bowl contenders had another week before they had to play.

Finally this week we received some numbers to back up this perception. The 7-8-1 Panthers are 10.5 point underdogs in Seattle, only the seventh team in the past ten years to be double digit underdogs in the divisional round. Both New England and Denver are 7 point favorites, and even in the matchup of two teams with identical 12-4 records the Packers are 6 point favorites. I’m not big into gambling, but I know enough about betting lines to know how absurd these spreads are. Based on the data compiled by Wizards of Odds Dallas is the only team with even a thirty percent chance of making it to the next round.

The odds are stacked against the four road teams, but that doesn’t mean an upset is impossible. There are strategies for underdogs to give themselves a chance at stealing a game they shouldn’t win. Minimizing turnovers and controlling the ball are obvious necessities in all cases. Cutting down on the number of possessions can increase the chances of irregular results holding. But beyond these strategies, each and every team has certain advantages they have to take advantage of and certain weaknesses they have to hide if they have any hope to continue their seasons.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

As I mentioned on Tuesday, Baltimore tore apart Pittsburgh’s strong offensive line with their stellar pass rush, accumulating five sacks and regularly forcing Ben Roethlisberger out of the pocket. They will face an even greater challenge in New England’s line this weekend, but if they can collapse the pocket on Tom Brady they will reap even greater rewards.

Brady has always had trouble when facing pressure, more so than even other elite pocket passers like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. He is utterly incapable of moving outside of the pocket, and he shies away from contact when a defender is bearing down on him. Baltimore has had success in the past against New England (with a largely different cast of players on defense) because they’ve been able to confuse the protection and get to Brady. New England’s offensive line is not what it used to be, and they should be able to cause some errant throws.

Brady’s best defense against a pass rush is Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski’s size and athleticism means that he is open under almost any circumstance, and since he spends most of his time running up the seams it is often easy for Brady to make quick throws on hot reads. If the Ravens can get pressure on Brady they can stop the Patriots, but they can only get pressure if they can handle Gronkowski. This is one area where the Ravens are better suited to face the Patriots than most teams in the league. They have two excellent coverage linebackers in Daryl Smith and CJ Mosley, and they have an emerging safety in Will Hill. They have the players to run with New England’s most dangerous weapon, and if they can keep him from winning too many contested balls they can hold him in check.

Baltimore’s greatest weakness on defense is their secondary. Injuries have shredded an already thin unit, and they have no hope of being able to keep up with a top receiving corps. Fortunately, they won’t have to face this in New England. The Patriots wide receivers are good at finding holes and running timing routes, but they don’t have the ability to win one on one matchups. They will get what they normally get, but New England simply isn’t set up to exploit Baltimore’s greatest weakness.

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks

This is the game with the biggest point spread, and it should be no surprise that it is the hardest to envision an upset in. Carolina lost more games than it won this year, and it is facing a team that many believe is the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Carolina’s offense has struggled all year, and it is going against a defense that has surged to the top of the league over the final month of the season. It would surprise no one if the Panthers failed to reach double digit points.

If the Panthers are going to score, they are going to need to do so on the ground. Even over their recent five game winning streak Carolina’s passing offense has been far from impressive. Their leading receiver against Arizona was Fozzy Whittaker, whose sole reception was a screen he took 39 yards for a touchdown. Kelvin Benjamin has cooled considerably since the start of the season, and this is a particularly bad matchup for him. He still has a lot of work to do as a route runner, and most of his catches come on contested balls. Seattle has cornerbacks and safeties who can match him on these catches, and I would be shocked to see Benjamin reach even 50 receiving yards.

Carolina needs to move the ball on the ground, hardly an appealing prospect against a team that ranked second in the league against the run. But the Panthers did just roll over a similarly strong run defense in Arizona, and with Jonathan Stewart handling most of the carries they’ve shown the ability to run on just about anyone. Seattle has struggled in the past against mobile quarterbacks like Colin Kaepernick, and if Cam Newton makes use of his legs to escape the pocket he can help sustain drives against Seattle’s defense.

Even if everything goes right for Carolina’s offense, they will still need a great performance from their defense to stay in this game. Their secondary shut down Ryan Lindley, but it is completely different trying to hold down Russell Wilson. But like the Patriots, the Seahawks lack top notch receivers capable of beating a poor secondary. Seattle’s receivers excel at getting open when Wilson scrambles, but they don’t consistently create separation within the normal framework of the routes.

This is the difficulty with playing Seattle. Wilson is one of the most elusive quarterbacks in the league, and when he escapes the pocket he is always looking to make plays deep down the field. Carolina’s defensive line has been playing well enough lately that they should be able to beat Seattle’s mediocre pass protection, but it doesn’t matter if they can’t corral the quarterback. Stopping Wilson requires help from the linebackers, and fortunately Carolina happens to have the best pair of linebackers in the league. Luke Keuchly and Thomas Davis have the athleticism to track Wilson down when he escapes the pocket, and they have a chance to minimize the damage he can do with his legs.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Above I mentioned that one of the keys to pulling an upset is to control the ball and to shorten the game. No team is better set up to do this than Dallas. Their offensive line is the best in the league, and their running back is used to handling twenty plus carries a game. After fighting with Ndamukong Suh and the monsters across Detroit’s front, it will be a relatively comfortable matchup against Green Bay’s front seven. This is Dallas’s greatest advantage, and if they keep the ball on the ground they can increase their chances of pulling this one out.

Dallas will be able to score against Green Bay. The Packers don’t have anyone who can match up against Dez Bryant, and their pass rush is not even close to good enough to beat the Cowboys offensive line. They can try a blitz heavy approach like Detroit did last week, but I expect Dallas will be better prepared to counter that this time around. They did a fine job neutralizing Detroit’s pressure in the second half. The Packers inferior front seven won’t cause any issues.

The biggest problems for the Cowboys will be on the other side of the ball. Dallas has put together a surprising defensive performance this year thanks to the phenomenal coaching of defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, a genius when it comes to developing defensive linemen. He’s going to have to get the most out of his line if they are going to win this game. They need to play aggressive, find and hit Eddie Lacy in the backfield before he can get a head of steam built up. Lacy doesn’t have the vision or ability to change direction of other top backs, but once he gets two or three yards down the field it is difficult to stop him from fighting for another couple. Gap discipline isn’t as important to this game as penetration, and if Dallas can live in the backfield they can stymie the Packers running game.

This is one area where the Cowboys have received some good luck. Maintaining disciplined running lanes isn’t necessary against the Packers to stop their running backs, but it is normally necessary to contain their quarterback. Aaron Rodgers is one of the most mobile passers in the league, and he excels at dipping beneath undisciplined pass rushers to escape the pocket and give his receivers extra time to come open down the field. Through most games teams have chosen the lesser of the evils, limiting penetration to contain Rodgers and sacrificing running opportunities to Lacy.

There is a chance the Cowboys might not have to make that choice in this game. Rodgers is hobbled with a calf injury, and two weeks ago against Detroit it was very clear that he is not his usual mobile self. Two weeks of rest will have done him good, but if he is still limited outside the pocket he can be disrupted by penetrating linemen. He won’t suddenly turn into Tom Brady under pressure, but a few guys in his face could be enough to get their offense off the field once or twice. If Dallas can control the ball and keep possessions to a minimum, this will be enough for them to win the game.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

This is quietly a much bigger mismatch than either the Baltimore-New England or Dallas-Green Bay game. Denver is a more complete team than people realize. Their defense has actually been better than their offense this season, and they’ve developed a strong running game late in the season. Peyton Manning’s performance has slipped over the past month, but even at a level below his expectations he is still one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league, more than enough to win against anyone with this supporting cast.

Indianapolis has Andrew Luck. That’s about it. They have some decent players dotting the rest of their roster, but their team goes as their quarterback goes, more so than any other in the league. That’s been enough to get them past the first round of the playoffs the past two seasons, but they have consistently fallen short when faced with other top teams in the NFL. The first thing they are going to need to pull off this upset is a Herculean effort from their young quarterback. They don’t just need Luck to outplay Manning. They need him to stand head and shoulders above the opposing quarterback.

Denver’s defense is tricky because of its overall level of talent. People fixate on the pass rushing duo of DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller—among the best in the league—but they are supported on the back end by a pair of Pro Bowl cornerbacks in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. They have run stuffers Terrence Knighton and Derek Wolfe along the line and multifaceted safeties TJ Ward and Rahim Moore playing wherever they need to go. There is no real weakness to exploit on this team. To beat them, the Colts are going to have to be just as versatile on offense.

The first step is to handle the pass rush. Indianapolis’s offensive line has struggled recently, and even Cincinnati’s anemic pass rush managed to generate some pressure last week. Fortunately, Luck is one of the few quarterbacks in the league who seems genuinely indifferent to pressure. His athleticism is very similar to Rodgers’s, sneaky and deadly as an expansion of the passing game. And unlike Rodgers, he appears to be healthy. If Miller or Ware gets too far upfield he will take advantage of the lane to break from the pocket and force the secondary to extend their coverage.

The Colts have an intriguing—if slightly disappointing—array of weapons on offense, and they are going to need all of them. Another week should get TY Hilton healthier than he was against the Bengals, and hopefully he won’t have as many costly drops as he did in the wild card round. Reggie Wayne was a nonfactor against Cincinnati but will be crucial in exploiting Denver’s coverage. Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen need to contribute both as blockers and as receivers, and the Colts need to get something out of lower level receiving options like Hakeem Nicks or Donte Moncrief. None of these players will be able to get open consistently enough to have an explosive game, but as long as they are all contributing the Colts will be able to move the ball through the air. This is essential, because there is simply no way they’ll be able to run the ball successfully against the Broncos.

The battle on the other side of the ball is a bit trickier. The key to beating Manning has always been a pass rush, and that is the part of the Colts defense most lacking. But Denver’s offensive line has struggled enough this season that we can probably look at that matchup as a wash. They will get occasional pressure on Manning, enough to throw him off his game every now and then.

The key will be how their secondary holds up. Vonte Davis has had the best season of his career, and the Colts managed to beat the Broncos in the regular season in 2013 largely because of his success blanketing Demaryius Thomas. Denver is even thinner at the wide receiver position now, and if they can limit Manning’s top target it will be a serious blow to their passing game. This will require Davis to play the game of his life, but if he does so the Colts offense might have a chance of being able to outscore the Broncos.