2021 AFC North Preview

 Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario:
Innovation tends to move in cycles in the NFL. A creative scheme emerges on offense and lights the league on fire, only to be put out once defenses start adjusting. But given enough time, the offense adapts to the response and finds success again. This is what Baltimore is counting on happening in 2021. Two years ago their offense was the most dynamic in the NFL, with an almost unstoppable ground game powered by Lamar Jackson. Last year they were still good, but they hit a few more bumps in the road, somewhat due to injuries and somewhat due to new challenges thrown their way by opposing defenses.

Baltimore has one of the best coaching staffs in the league, and they’ve had an offseason to study where things went wrong a year ago. Jackson remains a uniquely dangerous weapon, and their offense is positioned to be very good once again. Ronnie Stanley is returning from injury, and they added Kevin Zeitler and Alejandro Villanueva on the offensive line. They’re deeper at receiver than they’ve been in recent years, with Sammy Watkins and rookie Rashod Bateman to complement the speed of Marquise Brown. Toss in their always reliable defense, and they can be as good as anyone in the AFC.

Worst Case Scenario:

The Ravens are a playoff team in just about any scenario, but there are a few red flags that could keep them from living up to their full potential. On offense the loss of JK Dobbins to a torn ACL could have major impacts on how they call the game. This is a team that wants to run the ball as many times as possible, and over the past few years that has meant feeding a two or three deep lineup of running backs. With Dobbins out, the only proven back on their roster is Gus Edwards, and he alone can’t bear the load of their rushing attack.

If Baltimore can’t run the ball as much as they want to, they’re going to have to find a way to generate a more consistent passing game than they’ve had the past few years. Jackson can absolutely throw the ball at a high level, but he experiences just enough lapses to cause this offense to stall out at times. The additional receiving talent will help, as will the improvements on the offensive line. But at a certain point they may need him to be able to drop back and reliably find and hit open receivers. If he gets hot, he can still carry this team with his arm. But he also makes enough mistakes that he could sink them.

Player to Watch: Ty’Son Williams, RB

Baltimore is going to try to find some more depth at running back. They’ll likely peruse the free agent market, but there aren’t a lot of good options out there on the street. Their top returning running back after Edwards is Justice Hill, whose 60 yards last year were fewer than wide receiver Devin Duvernay and backup quarterback Robert Griffin III. Baltimore is very shallow when it comes to proven running backs, but they are a team well suited for someone surprising to emerge.

Williams is a flyer, but he has as good a chance as anyone of being that breakout player. After a college career that saw him bounce between three different schools and suffer a torn ACL his senior year, he ended up making the Ravens practice squad last year as an undrafted free agent. Now with the season about to start, his performance in the preseason seems like it may have earned him the second running back role. He doesn’t have much of a track record, but he has a strong, stout body that can handle a lot of contact between the tackles, potentially opening things up for Jackson to make plays on the outside.

 

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario:
Last year Cleveland finally escaped from the sewer they’d spent the past two decades in, and now they’re set up to do it all over again. They returned all of their important starters on offense, and they will actually be giving Baker Mayfield some consistency with their scheme for the first time in his career. Last year they put together a quality offense despite Nick Chubb missing four games and Odell Beckham missing nine. It’s hard to be too confident saying they’ll get more out of these injury-plagued players in 2021, but if they do this offense could be something special.

The big weakness for Cleveland a year ago was their defense. They have the first couple pieces they need in stars Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, but they were desperately lacking in supporting pieces. They attacked this in the offseason, signing quality veterans Malik Jackson, Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Walker, and John Johnson III. None of these players is a big needle-mover on their own, but together they fill out a unit that suddenly has the potential to be a championship quality defense.

Worst Case Scenario:

There are some red flags from last year that suggest this team may be due for some regression. Despite winning 11 games, they actually finished with a negative point differential, and were just middle of the pack in most advanced stats. Most of this was due to a miserable defense, and that side of the ball is the easiest to see a big year over year change, especially with all the free agents they added. But expecting them to repeat their record from last year is counting on defensive improvement, which isn’t guaranteed for a unit still figuring out their chemistry.

I’m also still not completely sold on Mayfield and this passing attack. The Browns are extremely thin at wide receiver. Jarvis Landry is good at what he does, but he’s much better suited as a third wide receiver picking defenses apart in the slot. Beckham hasn’t been reliable or healthy in years, and if he goes down again, suddenly Mayfield is going to have trouble finding anywhere to go with the football. If this happens, he could start forcing plays down the field and revert to the player who threw 21 interceptions in 2019. The Browns are good enough to win some games even if he’s throwing the ball away, but not against the top teams they’ll have to face come playoff time.

Player to Watch: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR

As I mentioned above, Cleveland doesn’t have a lot to get excited about past the top two pass-catchers on their depth chart. Rashard Higgins is a fine depth piece but not someone you want to rely on. Austin Hooper should hopefully be more useful after a disappointing first season with Cleveland. And while Kareem Hunt brings some useful versatility as a receiver, Chubb offers basically nothing in that part of the game.

The one player who could end up playing a major role in the fate of this offense is Peoples-Jones. Peoples-Jones never quite lived up to his potential at Michigan, but his physical tools are off the charts, and they were enough to make him a sixth-round pick in 2020. He didn’t see a lot of playing time as a rookie, but when he did he was explosive, averaging over 20 yards per reception and making some spectacular leaping grabs. He’ll be a much bigger part of the offense this season, and if he can develop into more than a situational deep threat, he’ll go a long way towards closing the biggest hole in Cleveland’s roster.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario:
Pittsburgh is coming off of a fascinating 2020 season that makes it hard to predict what exactly they’ll be in 2021. They started last year with 11 straight victories, only to lose five of their final six games on the way to an uneventful playoff exit. They fell apart down the stretch thanks to an offense that became totally lifeless. They couldn’t run the ball, and they didn’t attack down the field, so defenses were content playing tight to the line to disrupt their timing passing game.

Pittsburgh changed offensive coordinators this offseason, and there is hope this may kick their offense back to life. Another year removed from his elbow injury, Ben Roethlisberger may still have the tools needed to lead a high octane offense. They have plenty of talent at wide receiver, and they added Najee Harris with their first round pick to revitalize their rushing attack. And the truth is, the Steelers don’t actually need that much from their offense. They have the best defense in the NFL, and even an average offense will get them in playoff contention. If they somehow manage to pull together one last run of elite quarterback play from Roethlisberger, they may even have an outside shot of competing for the Super Bowl.

Worst Case Scenario:

That last part is a very big if. Roethlisberger has been wildly inconsistent for several years now, and it’s hard to know just how far he has fallen off physically. His down the field accuracy was gone even before they started losing games a year ago, and if he still can’t stretch the field it won’t take defenses long to adjust once again. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is a major concern as well, and it’s likely that Roethlisberger is going to take his usual pounding and wear down as the season goes along once again.

The defense and the coaching still do give the Steelers a pretty decent floor. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record in his career, and while I wouldn’t be surprised if this year broke the streak, I still expect they’ll get to at least seven or eight wins. Their defense has some questions at cornerback, but with TJ Watt, Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, it’s hard to imagine them not being at least a top ten unit once again.

Player to Watch: Zach Banner, OT

A former college All-American, Banner has had a winding road to becoming an NFL starter. He was selected in the fourth round in 2017 by Indianapolis but never even made it out of training camp. After spending the next two years bouncing around the league, he found a home as a backup tackle in Pittsburgh. Last offseason the Steelers were very excited by his potential as he moved into the expected starting lineup, only for him to tear his ACL in the first game.

He’s healthy now, and the Steelers will be hoping for a lot from him as part of a rebuilt offensive line. The only starter they return from the unit that started most of last year is Chukwuma Okorafor, and even he is switching from right tackle to left. They need their offensive line to be at least competent if they’re going to get what they hope from Roethlisberger and Harris. That seems like a stretch at this point, but a breakout performance from Banner could give them a chance.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario:
If the Bengals can keep Joe Burrow upright through the entire season, that will be an improvement on 2020. If he actually looks good, even better. He was solid when he was on the field a year ago, in circumstances that were just dreadful, with a top wide receiver who didn’t want to be there and an offensive line that couldn’t block a stiff breeze. Things are a bit better this year, if still not great, and hopefully he’ll take enough of a step forward to make them feel good headed into 2022.

I suppose there is a chance they could sneak into the wild card conversation. If Burrow breaks out, if their talented receiving corps is ready to contribute immediately, if they can get something from their offensive line. I’m not sure we can really hope for anything better than mediocrity from the defense, but maybe the additions of Trey Hendrickson and Trae Waynes will help them slow down a few passing attacks.

Worst Case Scenario:

Zac Taylor wasn’t given much to work with over his first two years, but he really hasn’t done anything to help matters either. It wouldn't be the worst thing if the Bengals finish with another dismal record this year, as it would encourage them take another run at hiring a new coach. Provided Burrow still looks at least promising. If he struggles, then none of this matters anyway.

The offensive line is still the major concern. Jonah Williams looked decent in his first year as a starter and should hopefully be even better this year. The acquisition of Riley Reiff should help stabilize the right tackle spot as well. But the inside three were their biggest weakness last year, and they haven’t made any changes to that unit headed into 2021. If they can’t give Burrow at least some space to work with, he will struggle as he returns from his knee injury.

Player to Watch: Sam Hubbard, DE

The Bengals don’t have many expensive veterans on their team, which means it really doesn’t hurt that much that they gave $10 million a year to Hubbard as he reached the end of his rookie deal. They’ve drafted extremely poorly in recent years, and they couldn’t really afford to let one of the few viable starters they’ve found walk away as a free agent. It’s still a lot of money to give to someone, and Hubbard is likely going to have to step up his performance to justify it this year.

Hubbard is an excellent run defender, but defensive ends get paid to go after the quarterback, and through three seasons he hasn’t shown an ability to consistently do this. He flashed some in 2019 with 8.5 sacks, but this oversold him a bit as he had only 13 QB hits, not even in the top 50 in the league. Last year his sack total over-reverted to only two, which simply isn’t good enough for a starting defensive end. With Hendrickson added on the opposite side and with an offense that should hopefully keep games more competitive, he’s in a much better position in 2021, and he’ll be expected to improve his production.