2021 AFC West Preview

 Kansas City Chiefs

Best Case Scenario:

The Chiefs have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl the past two seasons, so it’s pretty clear what the best case scenario for them is. This team has their eyes locked on another championship, and they mostly have the pieces they need to make that run again. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, and he has two of the most dangerous playmakers in football in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Their defense is a bit shallow, but with playmakers like Chris Jones and Tyrann Mathieu they have enough going on to make it work.

Injuries to the offensive line sank them in the Super Bowl a year ago, and they completely rebuilt the unit this offseason. Eric Fisher left in free agency and Mitchell Schwartz retired, but they brought in a pair of proven veterans in Orlando Brown and Joe Thuney to replace them. They added a pair of rookies on the interior in the draft by selecting Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, and they return Laurent Duvernay-Tardif after he opted out a year ago. If this unit comes together and stays healthy, there may be nothing stopping Kansas City this year.

Worst Case Scenario:

Building a brand new offensive line is always a tricky prospect. Mahomes isn’t an easy quarterback to protect, and it will likely take some time to establish the communication and rhythm that this offense needs to operate at its highest level. Of course, even running at 70% of full capacity this offense will still be one of the best in the league. They just need to figure this out by the end of the year to make sure they’re ready when the games start to matter.

That’s the tough part of where the Chiefs are at. Anything less than a championship is a disappointment, so the worst case scenario is that even one part of their roster isn’t firing on all cylinders when the playoffs come around. The offensive line is still shaky, there are holes at every level of this defense, and they don’t really have an established number two wide receiver. This is the last year before Mahomes’s big contract extension kicks in and starts eating up a huge chunk of their salary cap, which puts even more pressure on them to avoid any slipups down the stretch.

Player to Watch: L’Jarius Sneed, CB

Sneed is the classic example of the rich getting richer. A fourth round pick in 2020, by the end of his rookie season he had developed into an above average starting cornerback. For a team where the secondary is a real concern, this was basically a dream scenario. And if he can continue this level of play headed into 2021, it will go a long way towards smoothing over some of the issues I pointed out in the section above.

As I mentioned, starting next year Mahomes’s cap hit will jump from $7 million to around $40 million a year. That’s still a pretty good bargain considering what he brings to the table, but it changes the dynamic of how this roster is built. They are going to have to part ways with a lot of veterans, which means they are going to have to rely on more young players on cheap contracts. If they can continue to hit on mid-round selections like Sneed, they’ll remain a Super Bowl favorite every year. If not, they may struggle to make consistent deep runs into the postseason.

 

Los Angeles Chargers

Best Case Scenario:

The Chargers enter the year with a lot of excitement after a good debut from Justin Herbert a season ago. He produced tremendous volume with decent efficiency, and the key this year will be to maintain that volume while becoming more consistent and making fewer mistakes. His performance as a rookie was better than pretty much anyone expected, and as he’s still only 23 years old he has plenty of room to continue his growth.

Herbert is the key to this team, but for them to contend for the playoffs they are going to need to patch up a lot of other holes on their roster. They’ve invested a lot in rebuilding their offensive line over the past few years, and they need this to become an above average unit right away. On defense they need recent first round selections Jerry Tillery and Kenneth Murray to improve beyond being just starters and become genuine top-line players. New head coach Brandon Staley did a remarkable job building the Rams defense into an elite unit a year ago, and he has pieces to work with as he moves across Los Angeles. There’s potential for this defense to take a step forward and propel the Chargers to the playoffs, but it also may take some time to put things together.

Worst Case Scenario:

Herbert put together a strong rookie season a year ago, and it still didn’t really translate to wins. This is pretty much the story of the Chargers over the past decade. They have a lot of players to build excitement over, and it never really comes to anything. And as many stars as there are on this team, there are still questions about their depth. If the offensive line doesn’t come together, and if the young players on the defense don’t contribute, this is basically the same team that was mediocre a season ago.

I have big concerns about their depth at receiver and at cornerback. Their top two receivers are good, and they have other options in the passing game in Austin Ekeler and Jared Cook. But if anyone goes down, their passing game is going to have to lean on players like Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson. On defense their top cornerback is Chris Harris, who has been trending downhill for a couple years. They need rookie Asante Samuel to be an immediate contributor to help give them something on the back end. If they don’t get that, they could find themselves in a lot of shootouts.

Player to Watch: Jerry Tillery, DT

I mentioned Tillery above as one of the former first round picks who will be looked to as an essential piece of the Chargers defense. He’s particularly interesting in Staley’s system, as he will be occupying the position filled by Aaron Donald with the Rams last year. Obviously Tillery isn’t Donald and will never be Donald and shouldn’t be compared to Donald. But much of Staley’s system a year ago was built around the game-wrecking force he had at the front, and how much he gets from Tillery could go a long way to deciding how much he has to adapt his scheme.

Much has been made about how Staley’s system is built from the back to the front, varying coverage packages the way most defenses vary pressure looks. And while that approach certainly found success a year ago, it’s a lot easier to shift the scheme away from pressure when you have someone on the defensive line who consistently destroys the interior of the opposing offense. After limited playing time as a rookie, Tillery came on slowly a year ago. He has the explosiveness and the skill to be a dynamic pass rusher in the middle, and if he can step up it will make life a lot easier for everyone else on the defense.

 

Denver Broncos

Best Case Scenario:

Denver has quietly put together a hell of a roster. On the defensive side they’ll be getting Von Miller back after he missed the 2020 season, once again putting him opposite their developing young star Bradley Chubb to form maybe the most gifted pass rushing duo in the league. Rookie Patrick Surtain Jr should be able to make an immediate impact on the back end starting opposite free agent addition Kyle Fuller. With Justin Simmons emerging as a star at safety, this defense has the potential to jump back to a top five unit this year.

The ceiling probably isn’t as high on offense, but they have a lot to like there too. Garrett Bolles developed into a quality left tackle last season, stabilizing an offensive line that has been their weakness for years. Courtland Sutton will also be returning from injury, and partnering him with Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant gives them multiple explosive options on the outside. The big question remaining is the quarterback position. They still have to decide whether they’re going to gamble on the upside of Drew Lock or go with the steady presence of Teddy Bridgewater. In either case, I could see this offense doing enough for this team to be in the playoff hunt.

Worst Case Scenario:

Of course, the quarterback situation could be enough to sink their season. Lock is young and has shown flashes, but mostly he’s been well below average over his first two years. If they trot him out there and he bombs, the entire offense could quickly fall to pieces. Their receiving corps is still very young and erratic, and without a reliable passer to get them the ball their development as route runners and pass catchers could stall.

Denver is in a tough situation at quarterback. If their goal is to win games this year, Bridgewater is clearly the better option. But he wasn’t good enough to get things done in Carolina a year ago, and he puts a clear cap on whatever they’re trying to accomplish. Starting Lock on the other hand would likely be throwing this season away, but it would at least leave them in better position to start fresh in 2022. The worst case for this team may actually be putting together a decent season that keeps them from being in position to add a top option from next year’s draft who would have the potential to elevate this talented but unproven roster to the level of real contenders.

Player to Watch: Dalton Risner, OG

A quiet story from last year was the major improvement the Broncos saw on the offensive line. After being a disaster for close to a decade, this line took a major leap forward, and would have looked even better if they hadn’t had a revolving door at quarterback behind them. Offensive line coach Mike Munchak cemented his reputation as one of the best in the NFL, while left tackle Garrett Bolles received most of the attention and a big payday.

Risner was a quieter piece of that improvement, but an important piece nonetheless. Playing beside Bolles, he helped lock down the quarterback’s blind side and give Denver’s offense something to rely on. Risner is  entering his third season, and he should only get better headed into 2021. A year ago he was a functional starting NFL guard, which is a step above anything Denver has had for a while. If he can take the next step and become comfortably above average, the Broncos will have one more piece figured out on their line.

 

Las Vegas Raiders

Best Case Scenario:

Derek Carr played the best football of his career a season ago, and he may be set up to have an even better season this year. In his fourth year with Jon Gruden as his head coach, he’s mastered the system and now appears to have some talent to work with at the receiver position. Henry Ruggs didn’t give them what they hoped as a rookie, but he’s still a rare talent who can break defenses by stretching the field. Toss in other young players like Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow to go along with a good veteran addition John Brown, and this can be one of the top passing offenses in the NFL.

Even if that happens, I still can’t really see a path for the Raiders to make the playoffs. Their defense has been a mess for several years, and the additions they made don’t fill me with much optimism. Yannick Ngakoue can get after the quarterback but isn’t a real difference maker. Casey Hayward looked to be on his last legs a season ago. And Solomon Thomas might be a good reclamation project, but he still hasn’t shown anything to suggest he’s a quality starter. They are going to allow a lot of points, and I don’t quite see the firepower on the offense to keep up with that.

Worst Case Scenario:

Normally for a team stuck in no-man’s land like this, there’s some solace to be found if they completely collapse in a way that allows them to start over. And there may be something to be gained if the Raiders bring the Carr era to an end and get a young quarterback for next year. But quarterback is far from the biggest issue on this team. And of their major pieces, Carr is the only one that can really be replaced. Even after this year the Raiders still owe Gruden $60 million, so there is no way they make a change at coach this offseason, even if the team completely gives up on his leadership.

Another year finishing middle of the pack may give them time to develop their defense while the young pieces on their offense continues to grow. If they can spin their wheels through 2021, they have a chance to be competitive in 2022. I don’t love the plan they’re currently using to build this team, but at least it’s a plan. If this team falls apart and ends up drafting in the top five, they’ll be tempted to throw away pieces without being able to really start from scratch, which will leave them with an incoherent roster and no real hope for the future.

Player to Watch: Bryan Edwards, WR

I mentioned Edwards above as one of the young receivers who could step forward. Ruggs gets all the attention as a first round pick, but their third round selection from the same draft may be just as exciting. Edwards was a bit of a quiet prospect, hindered by an injury that ended his senior season and prevented him from testing at the Combine. But he had some very vocal advocates before the draft, and entering his second season healthy he has the potential to take a major leap forward.

Edwards has good size at 6-3, and in college he had a habit of making some spectacular leaping catches. With Ruggs challenging defenses down the field, he should have plenty of space to work in the intermediate zone, and he will likely become Las Vegas’s top target in the red zone. There has been a lot of buzz about him coming out of training camp, and if there’s any truth to these rumors, the Raiders may have two of the most talented young receivers in the NFL.