2021 NFC South Preview

We’re rapidly approaching yet another NFL season, which means it’s time for yet another series of preview posts. Because I’m a creature of habit, I’ll be following the same format I’ve used in years past. I’ll go division-by-division through the NFL, starting today with the NFC South and winding my way through the other 7 over the next four weeks.

For each division I’ll list the teams in rough order of how I expect them to finish, then lay out what I think of these teams in 3 categories: best case scenario, worst case scenario, and player to watch. The last category is basically just a grab-bag for me to talk about whatever I want. Sometimes this is a lesser-known player due to break out. Other times it’s a keystone piece whose performance will play an outsized impact on the fate of the team. And sometimes it’s just a player I feel like writing about.

NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Best Case Scenario
The Buccaneers won the Super Bowl a year ago by being the deepest team in the league, and they experienced astonishingly little turnover this offseason. They are the first championship team since 1979 to return all 22 of their starters, and they even have useful players like OJ Howard returning. So obviously they are among the favorites to win the Super Bowl yet again. 

In many ways Tampa Bay is set up to be even better than they were a year ago. They have young stars like Tristan Wirfs and Devin White who only got better as the season went along in 2020. Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski should be even better after somewhat shaky returns to football after extended time off. And another year for Tom Brady in this new offense will only make things smoother. Tampa Bay was playing their best football when 2020 came to an end, and there’s no reason not to expect that to continue headed into 2021.

Worst Case Scenario

I’ve spent this section talking about the inevitable decline of Brady for years, and the decline is still inevitable. But I don’t feel like retreading old ground. If it happens, Tampa Bay is still good enough to win this division, but probably not enough to make a run at the Super Bowl.

So let’s focus on what might go wrong outside of the quarterback position. Tampa Bay has the depth to absorb a lot of bad breaks, but they were still remarkably healthy a year ago, and we saw how much an impact it did have when Vita Vea returned to their lineup for the postseason run. Their defense plays with fire a bit on the outside, and if their cornerbacks start to struggle or their pass rush is stifled, they are vulnerable to big plays over the top. They still don’t have a reliable running back either, and I could see them losing a handful of shootouts where they just don’t have the strength to put opposing teams away at the end of games.

Player to Watch – Donovan Smith, OT

The other thing we need to discuss is the offensive line. When the marriage of Brady and Bruce Arians was first announced, it seemed like an odd match on paper. Arians is known as a high-flying attacker who has a tendency to get his quarterbacks killed. Brady has played in a wide variety of schemes, but at times in New England he leaned almost exclusively on a quick-hitting underneath passing attack. There were questions if he had the physical ability to push the ball down the field as Arians prefers, and if he would be willing to hold the ball as long as the plays demanded.

It took about halfway through the season for these two to figure things out, and then it became a match made in heaven. Brady integrated his masterful knowledge of protection schemes with Arians’s attacking style, and the offense took off on their Super Bowl run. This still puts a lot of pressure on the offensive line, but the Buccaneers were set up to handle this, with stars along the front like Wirfs, Ryan Jensen, and Ali Marpet.

The one big question that remains on the line is at left tackle. Smith is a solid enough starter, and he played the best football of his career a year ago. It certainly helps being placed alongside an elite guard and in front of a genius quarterback. But there will always be times when a left tackle has to be counted on to hold his ground. It’s the most important piece of the offensive line, and Brady is the sort of quarterback who can be completely thrown off his game if he can’t count on the men in front of him.

 

Carolina PanthersBest Case Scenario
I’m still skeptical about the Sam Darnold addition, but I sneakily like a lot of the other things Carolina has done with their roster. Their offense a year ago was successful despite a prolonged absence by Christian McCaffrey, and if they can keep him healthy they have the ability to throw out a truly dangerous set of skill position players. DJ Moore and Robby Anderson both went over 1000 yards receiving a year ago, and Darnold is a quarterback better suited to stretching the field than they had with Teddy Bridgewater.

The defense was a disaster last year, but it was also insanely young. Every single selection in the 2020 draft was on the defensive side of the ball, and many were immediate starters for them. Jeremy Chinn was in the conversation for Defensive Rookie of the Year, while Derrick Brown and Yetur Gross-Matos give them two talented bodies on the defensive line. Toss in top ten rookie Jaycee Horn at cornerback, and this is a defense with the potential to take a massive leap forward.

Worst Case Scenario

Darnold probably isn’t a good quarterback. He’s definitely a downgrade from Bridgewater, and he’s about to be plopped down behind an offensive line even worse than the one he played with in New York. As good as their weapons are, there isn’t much they can do if the quarterback can’t get them the ball.

The defense has possibly even more downside than it has upside. Young defenses are always total wild cards, and sometimes it takes them longer to come together than anyone expects (and if you want an example of them never coming together, just look across the division to where Atlanta was five years ago). Things could fall apart very quickly for this team, and they could find themselves sliding into the top five of the draft in desperate need of a quarterback once again next year.

Player to Watch – Brian Burns, EDGE

I usually try to steer clear of picking recent first-round selections in this spot, but Burns is too fun and too overlooked. Two years into his career, he’s already arguably a top ten pass rusher in the league, and if the defense takes the leap forward I mentioned above, he has a chance to push his name into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.

Burns is a lanky, explosive athlete who excels coming around the edge and has already developed enough power to be a true headache for offensive tackles. He had nine sacks a year ago, and only injury will prevent him from getting to double digits this year. He wins every way you could ask a defensive end to win, but perhaps most impressive is the spin move he pulls out once or twice a game. It’s the sort of move that will become iconic if he continues his development path, a move that cannot be stopped by a single blocker and will leave every other pass rusher in the NFL working desperately to copy him.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario
The Saints were a Super Bowl contender a year ago with a declining Drew Brees under center. Now they find themselves in a weird situation, with a loaded depth chart and no idea who they are going to play at quarterback. Will it be the dynamic athlete Taysom Hill, or the experienced if flawed Jameis Winston? Both situations have some upside, but I think to have the consistency they need to make a playoff run over a long season, Winston has to be the guy. I still haven’t seen anything to convince me that Hill has what it takes to throw the ball more than every now and then, and you need some functional passing offense to succeed in the NFL.

There is a dream scenario where Winston steps in and leads this team on a charge through the NFC. He certainly has talent, and maybe a year on the bench has taught him caution to avoid the mistakes that doomed his time in Tampa Bay. There are questions about the Saints receiving corps, but their offensive line remains a top-tier unit, and their defense has been an above-average unit for a few years now. They likely can’t push Tampa Bay in the division, but they have a chance to snag a playoff spot.

Worst Case Scenario

There is a real scenario where the Saints simply cannot pass the ball. Michael Thomas is out indefinitely with an injury that just won’t seem to go away, and that leaves them with Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris as their top two wide receivers. Sean Payton has been infatuated for years with Hill, and I’m not convinced he’ll go away from him even if it’s in the best interest of the team. And while Alvin Kamara is one of the most skilled and versatile running backs in the league, he hasn’t shown the ability to be a player who absorbs 20-plus carries a game and lets the offense ride on his shoulders.

The defense can keep them in games, as it did when Brees missed time over the past few years. But if things start to slip away from this team, I could see a veteran unit more-or-less giving up on the season. The most likely outcome is that they finish with six or seven wins, but I can envision a small chance of a total collapse that leaves them picking near the top of the draft next year.

Player to Watch – Marcus Davenport, EDGE

Davenport has not lived up to what the Saints expected when they spent a pair of first-round selections on him (especially when you compare what the Packers ended up getting with those picks). But he hasn’t been a bust either. He’s been a solid starting piece on a defense that hasn’t needed him to be more than that. Until now.

Davenport is a very gifted athlete who has occasionally been able to turn those gifts into pressure on the quarterback. A year ago, with Trey Hendrickson and Cameron Jordan terrorizing quarterbacks ahead of him, these spurts were enough to add a dangerous spark to the defense. But Jordan is now 32 years old, and Hendrickson is in Cincinnati. The Saints need Davenport to become a star, something he hasn’t shown yet but still has the potential to grow into as he enters his age 25 season.

 

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario
This team is hard to pin down. They were atrocious a year ago, and they didn’t really make many changes in the offseason, aside from swapping in Kyle Pitts for Julio Jones. On paper this should make them worse, but it’s still hard for me to quit this team. Matt Ryan has slipped from his peak, but he’s still a solid quarterback with a quality group of weapons. The offensive line is young and could take a step forward, and if they do this offense could be a top ten unit.

The defense is harder to be optimistic about, but they have some pieces to like. Deion Jones and Grady Jarrett are quality veterans, and AJ Terrell is coming off of a strong rookie season. I don’t know if this unit can be good, but they might be able to sneak up to league average. It’s not enough for me to consider them a playoff contender in a deep NFC, but they could probably push towards eight or nine wins.

Worst Case Scenario

It’s similarly challenging to pin down how bad this team can be. On the one hand I feel like the presence of Ryan and Calvin Ridley slinging the ball around on offense gives them a basic floor of competence. On the other hand, they ended up well beneath that floor a year ago. So the evidence of our own eyes suggest they could collapse and finish with a top five draft selection, even if on paper they look better than that.

This roster has some big names on top, but whiffs in recent drafts have left them with very little talent across the rest of their team. Their starting unit includes players like Tyeler Davison, Christian Blake, and Erik Harris, the sort of names that would typically be rounding out the bottom of a depth chart. The Falcons need a lot of young talent to step up to reach bare competence, and it seems overly optimistic to bet on all of that coming together this year.

Player to Watch – Mike Davis, RB

One of the many journeyman veterans filling out this starting lineup is Davis, a running back who has been given the presumed starting role after signing as a free agent in the offseason. He was solid enough as a fill-in for McCaffrey in Carolina a year ago, after less stellar performances with Chicago and Seattle. But on this team, he really doesn’t have much in the way of competition. The other running backs listed on the roster are Qadree Ollison—who has 23 carries for 53 yards across two seasons—two rookies, and Cordarrelle Patterson, a converted wide receiver that four other teams have tried and failed to turn into an offensive weapon.

Arthur Smith comes over from Tennessee where he leaned heavily on Derrick Henry in the running game. Davis obviously isn’t going to be that, but this offense will try to focus more on the run in order to power the play action game and take pressure off of Ryan. It’s hard to say whether Davis will actually be effective enough to make this work, but he will certainly be given plenty of opportunities.