Green Bay Packers
After two straight disappointing exits in the NFC Championship Game, the Packers are back for (in theory) one last ride with Aaron Rodgers. This is a team with championship level superstars at multiple positions, and just a few key holes in their depth that elite teams have been able to exploit. Two years ago the 49ers ran all over them, and last year the Buccaneers brutally attacked Kevin King. They’ve brought in fresh talent to try to patch up these holes, though it remains to be seen how effective these will be. They’ll be helped if they continue to see growth from Rashan Gary, who stepped up as a contributor down the stretch in 2020.
Looking through the Packers roster is basically trying to pick out which weakness will let them down this year. Much has been made about their refusal to draft a second receiving option, but with Rodgers and Davante Adams they are going to have an elite passing attack no matter what. Their offensive line is already a bit banged up with David Bakhtiari missing the first six weeks, but they have one of the best young linemen in football in Elgton Jenkins. The star power is enough to carry this team to a division title and possibly the top overall seed in the NFC once again. From there it’s largely a matter of a lot of small breaks to get them over the top.
Worst Case Scenario:
The other question is Rodgers. Last year he was a deserving league MVP, but two years ago he was simply an above average starter. Better health may have played some role in his improvement, but the biggest change seemed largely to be with his attitude and aggression. After years of a slightly passive approach, he was much more aggressive in 2020 while still maintaining his insane ability to avoid turnovers. As easily as that switch flipped on, it could just as easily flip back off. I don’t think it runs the risk of them missing the playoffs, or really even finishing second in the division. But even one or two disappointing regular season losses could make their road in the playoffs much more difficult.
Player to Watch: De’Vondre Campbell, LB
Campbell isn’t a star, but he’s pretty good at a lot of things. He can stack up runs directly at him, and he has the range to cover a lot of ground. He has occasional struggles in coverage, but physically he has the size and athleticism to match up against most tight ends if the Packers ask it of him. Mostly he’s just a solid starter at a position the Packers haven’t had a solid starter in a long time. And he should help stop teams from exploiting Green Bay on the ground the way they’ve done in the past.
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota had a top-ten offense a year ago, and in theory it could be even better this year. Justin Jefferson emerged last year as a rookie superstar, Adam Thielen is still a productive receiver, Dalvin Cook is one of the best and most versatile running backs in the league, and Kirk Cousins is capable of producing at a high level when given a lot of talent around him. They retooled their offensive line some this offseason, and if it can get up to simply average this offense could become one of the elite units in the league.
The real place they’re looking for improvement is on defense. They brought in three veteran starters in the secondary in Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, and Xavier Woods. They have turned over their entire defensive line from a year ago, with star Danielle Hunter returning from injury, Michael Pierce coming back after opting out, and Dalvin Tomlinson arriving as a free agent. A year ago this defense couldn’t get pressure on the quarterback and put too much responsibility on young cornerbacks. This defense has the potential for a massive bounceback to become a top ten unit yet again. And if that happens, they have enough firepower to offense to take a run at the Packers for the division.
Worst Case Scenario:
This team has been clinging to a closing window for several years now, and this could be the year it finally slams shut and slices off their fingers. I think they have enough talent and competent enough coaches to keep them from a truly abysmal season, but I wouldn’t be shocked if by the end of the year we once again see a team that simply doesn’t have it in them to push for the playoffs. It doesn’t help that the league chose to add a 17th regular season game this year, just more wear for a thin and aging roster.
Player to Watch: Oli Udoh, OG
Udoh is a bit of a change of pace. He’s still a good enough athlete to be functional in their zone running scheme, but at his heart he is a big, powerful guard. Standing 6-5 and weighing 323 pounds, he is absolutely massive, and he will give them a new flavor on their offensive line. If he can slide into the starting lineup, he can lend his strength to help Bradbury in pass protection beside him. They have to hope he can move well enough that their running game doesn’t suffer, but if he can he might be just the piece they need to stabilize this unit.
Chicago Bears
Andy Dalton puts a clear ceiling on this team, but he isn’t going to be around for long. Within the first month of the season Justin Fields will take over this offense, and then things get intriguing. I was a big fan of Fields during the draft process, and nothing that has happened since has changed that opinion. He’s as talented as any quarterback to enter the league in recent years, and his combination of arm strength, accuracy, and athleticism could give this offense an immediate boost.
That said, I think he’ll have some learning curve as he enters the NFL. He’ll have some spectacular performances, but he’ll also fall flat in a few games this year. The supporting cast on offense is pretty poor outside of Allen Robinson, and I have concerns about their defense, particularly the cornerback position. Between Fields’s inconsistency and the other holes on this roster, I struggle to see them competing for more than a wild card spot. But if they can pull that off and let Fields grow through his struggles, they’ll be in a decent position headed into 2022.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Bears are in kind of a weird place when it comes to team-building. They’re clearly planning for a future with Fields, and the best time to try to win with a young quarterback is in years three and four, when he’s had time to grow as a player but is still being paid virtually nothing. But the rest of the Bears roster doesn’t really line up with that timing. The best players on their defense are Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks, and both are over 30. Allen Robinson is still just 28, but they don’t have much in the way of other young receivers to grow with Fields. They don’t have a first round pick next year, and it’s going to be hard to add talent to a team that is already fairly thin. If some of these players start to show their age, it could very easily slam shut Chicago’s 2023-2024 window before it even opens.
Player to Watch: Darnell Mooney, WR
Mooney’s rookie year was impressive for a player drafted as low as he was. He finished with 631 yards on 61 catches and became a bigger contributor as the season went along, ending the year with his best game with 11 receptions for 93 yards against Green Bay. Small and fast, he’s the perfect complement for the big-bodied Robinson. With him and free agent signing Marquise Goodwin, the Bears have a couple of legitimate deep threats that can help warp defenses once Fields and his talented arm make it onto the field.
Detroit Lions
I’m not sure where to even go with this one. This Lions roster is putrid, and it’s designed to be putrid. They have two first round selections coming up next year, and they might as well get started scouting right now, because there isn’t much to be gained during the regular season. They’d like to see immediate impact from Penei Sewell to give them an elite offensive line. It would be good to get some development from Jeff Okudah at cornerback as well. These two young players could give them a foundation when they officially start the rebuild next year.
In theory it would simplify things if they can discover this year that Jared Goff is the quarterback they want to build around. It’s just hard for me to see that actually happening. He can be an effective if uninspiring quarterback in the right circumstances, and circumstances in Detroit are at best a mixed bag. He has a strong offensive line, but he has absolutely no one to throw the ball to outside of tight end TJ Hockenson. Maybe the line can keep him upright long enough that even this abominable receiving corps can find some separation down the field. But in the end I still think we’ll mostly see a frustrated Goff forced to try to fit the ball into nonexistent windows.
Worst Case Scenario:
I’m interested to see how Dan Campbell performs in his first season as a head coach. People seem to genuinely love him as a person and a motivator, but some of the things he’s said make me a little skeptical of how well he’ll perform as an on the field coach. Ideally he’d be the answer at the position and let them develop a clear identity to build their team around over the next few years. But if he doesn’t work out, the Lions will be in a much less clear position.
Player to Watch: Romeo Okwara, OLB
With 18 recorded quarterback hits a year ago, Okwara’s sack total looks like a slight, if not ridiculous, outperformance. But he also did this on a tire fire of a defense, without any of the supporting pieces most top sack-producers have. If Okudah can improve in his second season, if the offense has a little more firepower to force teams into more passing situations, he could come close to repeating his 2020 production. At this point in his career it’s unlikely that he becomes the sort of star player who can lead this defense, but the Lions are also desperately in need of any sort of competent role player.
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