The Next Step

Eight teams are left in contention for a Super Bowl title, and I should probably use this space to write about them. But in truth, none of the four teams that won last weekend particularly impressed me, and it wouldn’t shock me if all four were eliminated in a week’s time. All season it has seemed as if there was a set of teams that was a step ahead of all the others, and very little we saw in the Wild Card round dissuaded me from that impression.

So instead, let’s not talk about the winners. Let’s talk about the losers, the teams that fought all year to reach the playoffs then dropped out in the first round. Disappointment has clouded what should be considered successful seasons, and there are a lot of teams out there who wish they made it as far as these four.

But the NFL never stops, and these teams can’t focus on 2015 for too long. Already the coaches and front offices are turning their attention to 2016. Because a taste of the playoffs only leaves teams hungry for more, and a first round exit can often be a prelude for something more. Taking the next step is always more difficult than people believe, but here are my thoughts on how each of the four first round exits can accomplish it.

Houston Texans

I think it was pretty obvious on Saturday what the biggest problem on Houston’s team is. Brian Hoyer is a below average starting quarterback in the league, but no one could have expected what we saw against Kansas City. Four interceptions and a lost fumble robbed the Texans of whatever hope they had of winning the game. Their defense kept them in it for most of the first half, but Hoyer couldn’t turn it around after halftime, and the game quickly turned into a rout.

Texans fans are justifiably furious with Hoyer, and they’re going to be even more furious when he’s their starting quarterback again next season. Because even though that’s the most obvious hole on Houston’s roster, it isn’t one they’re going to be able to fix. With the 22^nd pick in the draft they won’t be in position to take a franchise quarterback, or at least not anyone who is ready to start off the bat next year. They might be able to grab someone with high upside in the second or third round, but their best bet for next year will be to start with Hoyer back out there.

This is a no win situation. Replacing Hoyer could erase the progress they made over the second half of 2015, but sticking with him will limit their upside in 2016. With Andrew Luck coming back and Blake Bortles developing, a mediocre quarterback won’t be able to win this division like he did this year.

The quarterback situation makes it hard to look at Houston with much optimism, but there are still pieces to build around on this team. Obviously JJ Watt is a nightmare, and both Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney performed well as complementary pass rushers as the season went along. Add to that the continued growth of Benardrick McKinney and Kevin Johnson, and this is not the aging defense around Watt that we saw coming out of last season.

The offense, however, is a problem. Arian Foster is still a productive back when healthy, but his health has become too unreliable to build an offense around. They need any sort of weapon to rely on besides DeAndre Hopkins, and they need an influx of youth on their offensive line.

These are issues that can be addressed early in the draft. I’ll hopefully be able to get more in depth with my breakdown of the prospects, but from the early looks I’ve seen, both receiver and lineman have decent depth in the latter half of the first round. The best bet for Houston would be to add through the draft, bottom out in 2016, and hope they can find a quarterback solution after that. Because even though this team has talent to work with, they aren’t ready to take the next step until a couple years down the road.

Cincinnati Bengals

 

This is hard. I mean, how do you figure out the next step for a team that has been trying to figure it out for the past four years? For the fifth season in the row the Bengals dropped out in the first round of the playoffs, and at this point it has become more of a joke than anything else. This is a solid football team, but they haven’t been able to put together what they need to win a playoff game, and right now people are justified in asking whether they should make drastic changes in the way they run things this offseason.

The most obvious place to start is at head coach. I was an advocate of them letting Marvin Lewis go after last year, and it would only seem reasonable to be even more vocal after another year of stagnation. But strangely, I find myself rather ambivalent on the topic. Lewis did a good job this season, managing to win the division and nearly earn a first round bye. Had Andy Dalton stayed healthy, they would very likely still be alive right now. He fixed their pass rush, showed a willingness to embrace creativity from his offensive coordinator, and very nearly won a playoff game without his starting quarterback.

Lewis has received a great deal of criticism for how their playoff loss went down. He’s been accused of losing control of the team, and while I’m not going to argue that the Bengals weren’t out of control, I’m not sure it’s fair to give Lewis the blame. Everything about that game was out of control—the Bengals, the Steelers, the referees—and at a certain point there is only so much a coach can do.

Vontaze Burfict in particular was a major problem, but I’m not sure there’s a force on Earth that can keep him under control. He is simply emotionally unstable on the field, as everyone has known for the past five years. That was part of the reason why the Bengals were able to find a player of his talent as an undrafted free agent, and at this point it might be something that simply can’t be fixed. Some may criticize Lewis for bringing in a player like Burfict in the first place, but this is out of his control as well. He is living under the mandate of owner Mike Brown, who believes that he can bring in and fix any character issues.

It wouldn’t be a mistake if the Bengals fired Lewis, but it wouldn’t be a mistake to keep him around either. If this team is going to take the next step, the key will be getting better on the field. It’s become popular to heap scorn upon free agency as a tool for building a team, but the Bengals are a perfect example of how crucial it can be. No team (except maybe Green Bay and Pittsburgh) spends less on free agency than the Bengals, year after year not even bothering to pursue anyone on the market.

Despite what many fans believe, free agency is an invaluable tool to building a roster. People roll their eyes at failed big money deals like Albert Haynesworth and Mike Wallace, and they forget about the smaller deals given to championship contributors like Michael Bennett. Free agency is a bad way to build a roster, but it is an essential tool to filling in the gaps. Cincinnati (and, to a lesser extent, Green Bay and Pittsburgh as well) has found consistent success in the regular season thanks to the core of their roster, but they haven’t been able to add the talent to get over the top.

The Bengals need to be aggressive in improving their roster. There are plenty of places for them to attack in free agency. Another receiver opposite AJ Green would be nice. A situational pass rusher or another cornerback would push their defense to an elite level. One way or the other, the Bengals have to acknowledge that business as usual isn’t working, and they need to take advantage of all the tools they have to improve their teams.

Minnesota Vikings

The first two breakdowns have been a bit depressing, so let’s get into some optimism. There may not be a team in the NFL with a brighter future than Minnesota. A year in which they were expected to improve and compete for a playoff spot turned into a division title and a near victory over the defending NFC champions, and as crushing as this Sunday’s loss was, the game showed that this team is capable of competing with anyone in the league.

A couple days have passed, and I think I am now in an emotional state where I can talk about this game. By my reckoning this was the fourth most painful loss I’ve experienced as a Vikings fan (behind, in no particular order, 2009 against the Saints, 2003 against the Cardinals, and 1998 against the Falcons). The Vikings absolutely should have won this game, having outplayed Seattle almost from start to finish. And it isn’t just the field goal that sticks in my mind. There was the fumble by Peterson, the dropped interception by Sendejo, and that ridiculous play by Russell Wilson on the botched snap. The Vikings had so many opportunities to win this game, and it hurts that they weren’t able to grab them.

That said, one major factor keeps this loss from joining the other three a the top of my list. Even if they had won on Sunday, the Vikings still would have been long shots to win the Super Bowl. This team isn’t quite at that level yet, and as much fun as it would have been to see a deeper playoff run, I came into the game with very reasonable expectations. The Vikings weren’t in position to compete for a championship this year, but they will be next year, and in the years after that. A team loaded with young talent, they are a few pieces and a little development away from being one of the best teams in the NFL.

Like Cincinnati, this is a team that would benefit from being active in free agency. The Vikings can clear up $11 million in cap space by releasing Mike Wallace, and they can create a similar amount of space if they do as I’ve suggested and part ways with Adrian Peterson. He doesn’t fit with the rest of the talent on their team anymore, and Jerrick McKinnon performed well enough down the stretch to show that he can be a full time runner going forward. By freeing themselves of underperforming veterans, the Vikings can create more than $50 million in cap space, enough to give extensions to some of their young players and to sign free agents to bolster their roster.

There are three positions where the Vikings most obviously came up short this season. On the defensive side of the ball, while they could benefit from less Chad Greenway on the field, their only real weakness was at safety opposite Harrison Smith. This is a position that could definitely be addressed in free agency. Some of these players will ultimately be franchised or resigned, but for right now the league is looking at a free agent field headlined by Eric Weddle, Eric Berry, and Reggie Nelson. A good value choice would be to go after Tashaun Gipson, an excellent cover safety who has become lost in the mire of Cleveland. His skills would perfectly complement Harrison Smith’s and would solidify the Vikings on the back end.

The offense will be more difficult to fix. The offensive line has been the most glaring problem throughout the season, but it may not be the most pressing area to address. They will see immediate improvement with the return of John Sullivan and possibly Phil Loadholt (though Loadholt could end up cut for age, health, and money reasons). Matt Kalil was quietly okay at left tackle, and I still like the potential of TJ Clemmings on the right side. And between Joe Berger, Brandon Fusco, and Michael Harris, they should be able to find two starting caliber guards. Minnesota’s offensive line was a mess this season, but I wouldn’t be hugely disappointed if they made no major changes.

The same cannot be said about the receiver position. Stefon Diggs came on strong early in the season, but he struggled once coverage was directed his way. He has the look of a very good number two receiver, but the Vikings still need a primary option. What I would really like to see going forward is more aggression from Teddy Bridgewater, a willingness to force a ball into tight windows and let his receiver make a play. This year, however, they didn’t have any receivers capable of winning contested catches, which is why Bridgewater ended up sailing so many passes out of bounds.

Unless the Bears let Alshon Jeffery slip through their fingers, free agency doesn’t offer a lot of solutions here. Fortunately, the draft has a good collection of big, physical receivers. Josh Doctson of TCU and Michael Thomas of Ohio State could be available when the Vikings pick at 23, and I wouldn’t be stunned to see a fall from Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss, who won’t impress anyone with his 40 yard dash time. Any of these three would give Bridgewater a big, physical target who can attack the defense underneath and in the middle of the field.

That brings me to the final big adjustment they have to make on offense, and that’s to the scheme they are running. While I don’t think they necessarily have to replace Norv Turner, the entire coaching staff does need to sit down and discuss how their offense is run. Because right now, the scheme they’re running does not fit the players they have, and at this point it is far easier to change their playbook than their roster. Bridgewater’s sophomore year was a disappointment after a stellar rookie season, and most of the blame for this goes to the coaches for not putting him in a position to succeed. But with better play calling and some key additions to their roster, this team is capable of competing for a Super Bowl as early as next year.

Washington Redskins

This team is harder to figure out, because it still isn’t clear whether or not they were any good this year. Over the course of a 9-7 season they faced only three teams that ended up making the playoffs, losing by 17 to New England, 28 to Carolina, and 17 to Green Bay this past weekend. They looked good down the stretch of the season, but right now there is plenty of reason to wonder if they were just a mediocre team that happened to get hot against an easy schedule.

Even if they weren’t all that good this year, there is still reason to hope for improvement next year. Preston Smith became a force as an edge rusher over the final month of the season, capped by his sack of Aaron Rodgers for a safety on Sunday. They still need a lot of help on the back end of their defense, but with Smith and Ryan Kerrigan coming off the edges, this has the makings of a competent defense.

The key to their offseason will be Kirk Cousins. After what he did over the second half of the season, they cannot possibly justify letting him leave in free agency. They will have to spend big money to bring him back, either with a new contract or the franchise tag. If I was them, I would probably go with the latter option, giving him one season to show that he can repeat his success this year. He played extremely well down the stretch, and more than anyone else he is responsible for their playoff appearance. But eight games doesn’t justify a long term deal, and if they give him more time than he’s earned, they could end up digging themselves into a deep hole next year.

There is more reason for optimism for the Redskins than for either AFC team, but they still have to tread carefully going forward. If everything breaks right, this could be the first year of a serious run. The keys to this making this happen will be adding talent to their secondary (a likely target in the draft), trusting that their offensive line can come together, and hoping desperately that Cousins works out where so many similar quarterbacks have failed in the past.