Regular Season Wrapup

The playoffs are about to start, but before we turn our focus entirely to that, we should probably address some of the lingering issues from the regular season. I don’t feel like splitting these things into two separate posts, so I’ll wrap them together, dealing with both the coaching openings and the awards today. Starting on the coaching side of things, I'll go through the seven teams that have fired their head coach so far, sharing my thoughts on the firings and the state of the team going forward.

Coaching Carousel

Tennessee Titans

The order of these teams will be based on how desirable their opening is for a potential coach, and it should come as no surprise that Tennessee leads off the list. The Titans fired Ken Whisenhunt back in November, and they rode interim head coach Mike Mularkey to the worst record in the league. It was a mistake to hire Whisenhunt in the first place, and even though they probably jumped the gun firing their head coach after only a season and a half on the job, it’s hard not to agree that they need to start over.

Fortunately, no team is in a better position to start over than the Titans. Marcus Mariota quieted down after his torrid start, but he still has all the makings of a franchise quarterback, something that gives them an easy leg up over most of the other teams on this list. The other talent around him doesn’t jump off the page, but this is a roster filled with young players who, despite disappointing to this point in their career, have the ability to develop into stars with good coaching. Kendall Wright, Taylor Lewan, and Chance Warmack can form the core of a very good football team, if things break right. Add to that the number one pick in this year’s draft, and Tennessee may be a year or two away from becoming the best young team in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This one came out of nowhere on Wednesday night and nearly stole the top spot from Tennessee. In a lot of ways, the Buccaneers are actually better version of the Titans. Their young franchise quarterback was more highly thought of coming into the draft and had a better rookie season. Mike Evans is better than Kendall Wright, and while their young offensive line doesn’t have the same pedigree as Tennessee’s, it actually looked better this year. The only real advantage the Titans have is in draft position, and Tampa Bay’s ninth overall slot is nothing to shake your head about.

So why do I have them ranked below the Titans? Because of how they ended up here. Both the Titans and the Buccaneers hired their last coach in the same season, both bringing in veteran coaches who were gone within two years. The difference is, the Buccaneers actually had a coach who’d produced consistent success at his last stop, and they improved significantly in the time he was with them. Lovie Smith didn’t deserve to be fired, and the instability of the Buccaneers will be enough to unsettle some coaching prospects.

New York Giants

I have mixed feelings about the Coughlin firing. He’s not a bad coach by any means, as two Super Bowls in his twelve years with the Giants attest, and I’m not sure if they’ll be able to find anyone better on the market. There is a strong case to be made that firing him was an overreaction, and there’s a decent chance that this completely ruins the team.

But this is a weird case, since we’re dealing with the oldest coach in the league heading a team with a shrinking championship window. The Giants have fallen short for four straight years, and at a certain point the injury excuse starts to lose its merit. Something was clearly wrong in New York, and they couldn’t just wait to make a change, not with Eli Manning entering the final years of his career.

There are things to like about the Giants job and things not to like. The thing to like is Manning. No other coaching vacancy can boast a quarterback of his caliber, which gives the Giants a leg up on the rest of the field. On the other hand, the talent on the roster is pretty bare outside of quarterback, and it’s possible that whoever ends up as coach, the Giants will end up fighting the same battle of mediocrity over the next few seasons as they would have with Coughlin.

Miami Dolphins

Like the Titans, the Dolphins spent the latter portion of the season with an interim coach at the helm. And like the Titans, there is a lot of very appealing talent on this team. Lamar Miller is criminally underused, but when he has been allowed to contribute, he has been a dynamic playmaker. Ndamukong Suh was better this year than most people realize, and he will live up to the hefty contract the Dolphins gave him. Perhaps the most talented position is wide receiver, where rookie DeVante Parker came on strong after struggling with injuries early in the season, giving them the perfect big, fast complement to the small and shifty Jarvis Landry.

So why are the Dolphins so low on my list? Because of the quarterback. I’m sure most of you are familiar with the concept of Schrodinger’s Box (you know, the analogy a physicist came up with to explain how ridiculous it was to compare a quantum system to macro phenomena, which over the past eighty years has been used exclusively to compare macro phenomena to quantum systems?). Well this is Schrodinger’s Coaching Vacancy. It is either a perfect opportunity or a career killer, and there is no way to know until we open the Ryan Tannehill box.

Tannehill was bad in 2015. And he wasn’t that great in 2014 either. His 2014 season looked like it would be a perfect bridge year, a season of decent play that showed his growth before an explosion the following season. That explosion never came, and now his contract is casting a pall over the entire Dolphins franchise. Whether he plays well or not, the Dolphins are stuck with him for next season, and possibly even the season after that. If Tannehill is a bust, then the entire team will likely be scrapped in two years, and whoever takes this job will be thrown out the door with the quarterback they inherit.

Philadelphia Eagles

Who wants Chip Kelly’s mess? As good a coach as I think Kelly is, it’s hard not to argue that he was a disaster in his one year as a GM. Maybe if he’d been given more time, he would have been able to shape this roster into what he wanted, but as a one year project it stands as a major problem for whoever follows him up. The lack of playmakers on offense, the contracts given to Byron Maxwell and DeMarco Murray, the questions at the quarterback position. Even with young talent like Fletcher Cox and Jordan Matthews, it’s hard to imagine anyone leaping at the opportunity to coach this team.

If only for this reason, I think Philadelphia should have given Kelly another chance. This year was a disaster, but they were actually closer than most people realize, and with another year Kelly might have been able to pull something together. Of course, he also could have sunk them into a much deeper hole, and I’m not sure to what extent we need to give him the benefit of the doubt. But what’s done is done, and the fact remains that this team is in seriously bad shape going forward.

San Francisco 49ers

Huh. Who would have guessed that firing one of the best coaches in the world and replacing him with the first guy to walk through the door would prove to be a bad decision? In all seriousness, did anyone actually expect the Jim Tomsula era to go well? He was fun for a little while, and maybe we thought he would last more than a year, but it was clear to everyone from the start that the 49ers had taken a significant step down at the coaching position. Followed by an exodus of players the likes of which has never been seen before, there was no way anyone could have expected more from San Francisco than what they got this year.

In terms of the talent on the roster, the 49ers are in a better position than Philadelphia, with more intriguing prospects and fewer onerous contracts. But as ugly as things got in Philadelphia, they don’t compare to the mess that’s been made in San Francisco. Jim Harbaugh proved that simply winning football games isn’t enough to cut it in this organization, and Jim Tomsula showed that even being well liked didn’t guarantee more than a single season.

The problem here is at the top end of the organization. Trent Baalke has combined disappointing drafting with terrible management of the staff, and he’s sticking around for another year primarily because the ownership doesn’t want to face the PR nightmare that would come if they canned their GM only a year after choosing him over Harbaugh. He is hanging on by a tenuous thread, and any coach who signs on will have to do so understanding that the top of the organization is in a very fragile state. If they bring in a new GM in a year or two, there's a good chance he'll want to start over with a coach of his selection, lending a level of uncertainty to this job not found in other places.

Cleveland Browns

Are you surprised that the Browns are at the bottom of this list? Is there any way I could have possibly justified putting anyone else down here? The Browns are an absolute wreck of a franchise, and somehow they keep finding new ways to sink lower. The last five coaches fired in the AFC North have all been by the Browns. Their last four head coaches have all lasted two years or less. They’ve taken instability and turned it into their brand, and now they’ve made things worse by completely reshaping the structure of their front office. They’ve brought in a lawyer and a baseball administrator to help run the team, creating a power structure that simultaneously reduces the power of the GM role and scares off anyone who would want to come in. The last time the Browns were looking for a coach they had to go to their fourth or fifth option before they found someone to agree to do it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they had to go even deeper now.

This team is dysfunctional to the point that it’s hard to blame Mike Pettine for what has happened. Normally the situations around Johnny Manziel and Justin Gilbert would be enough to justify getting rid of a coach, but in Cleveland they can’t possibly be this picky. Pettine may or may not be a good coach, but there is no way anyone could have succeeded in the position he was put in. I hope he gets another chance someday, because it really isn’t fair what this organization is doing to the coaches they end up hiring.

End of Season Awards

This awards season should prove to be one of the most interesting in recent memory. Of all the races there isn’t a single one that is clear cut, and for several awards there is a case to be made for three or four different winners. In some instances this is due to the strength of the field, in others due to weakness, but either way it will lead to some highly entertaining discussions to follow going forward.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Who Should Win: Ronald Darby, CB Bills

Who Will Win: Marcus Peters, CB Chiefs

This one will fall into the classic trap of cornerback evaluation. Peters has gotten the most attention, earning a trip to the Pro Bowl, and it is easy to see why. He finished with a league leading eight interceptions, the most by a rookie cornerback since Anthony Henry in 2001. But as impressive as this is, interceptions aren’t the best way to measure a cornerback. Peters has made a lot of big plays, but he has also surrendered a lot of big plays too, near the league in receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed.

A closer look reveals that Ronald Darby has actually been the better rookie cornerback. Buffalo’s defense was disappointing this year, but it wasn’t because of their coverage on the back end. Darby combined with former first round pick Stephon Gilmore to give the Bills one of the best cornerback duos in the league, a pair of athletic and physical lockdown defenders. It’s a shame that Peters’s interceptions total has distracted people, because beyond that it’s hard to argue that he does anything as well as Darby.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Who Should Win: Todd Gurley, RB Rams

Who Will Win: Jameis Winston, QB Buccaneers

I honestly don’t know how to approach this one. Early in the season it looked like Marcus Mariota was going to run away with it, only to fall off and be replaced by Amari Cooper as the favorite. Then Gurley turned it on, performing over a span of several weeks like the best running back in the league. But he slowed down as the year progressed, and Winston came on, putting himself in position to grab the award only to fall off down the stretch.

No one has put together a complete season, so I will give the award to the player with the highest peak. Gurley was truly a game changing force for a stretch, and in a year of historically bad rushing production, his thousand yard season stands up against any runner in the league. I think Winston will end up winning the award, both because he plays quarterback and because his stretch came most recently. But any of Winston, Gurley, or Cooper could reasonably end up winning it, and I wouldn’t be too heartbroken to see any of them lose in the end.

Comeback Player of the Year

Who Should Win: Eric Berry, S Chiefs

Who Will Win: Eric Berry, S Chiefs

I don’t know if there has ever been an award with this deep a field of potential winners. Doug Martin recovered from two subpar seasons to finish second in the league in rushing. DeAngelo Williams was pulled off the scrap heap to become a key part of the best offense in the league. And then there is Arizona, who could conceivably make a case for Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Patrick Peterson, Chris Johnson, or Dwight Freeney. Any one of these players would be deserving, and probably would win in another year.

But in the end, this is the easiest award to pick of all. I do wish we could get into a more in depth conversation for this, but when a guy comes back from cancer and plays at an elite level in the league, he’s going to win.

Coach of the Year

Who Should Win: Ron Rivera, HC Panthers

Who Will Win: Ron Rivera, HC Panthers

A few weeks ago this was a very interesting race, but a sort of consensus seems to have been reached. As excellent a job as Bruce Arians, Mike Zimmer, Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, and Mike Tomlin have done, I don’t see any way we can give this award to anyone but Rivera. Maybe we all just collectively misjudged the Panthers before the season, but it still seems hard to reconcile the results they’ve gotten with this talent. If a coach can turn Ted Ginn into a top receiving threat and develop a fifth round cornerback into a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, then it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t deserve this award. It’s closer than the final results will probably end up looking, but Rivera is the right choice in the end.

Offensive Player of the Year

Who Should Win: Antonio Brown

Who Will Win: I have no clue

This is the most awkward award of them all, because no one can really seem to agree on a definition. Since every year the MVP goes to the best offensive player, it often seems redundant to give this award as well. So in the past it has become sort of a runner up MVP, which means it would go to either Cam Newton or Carson Palmer. But at times the voters seem to forget all about this and hand it off to whoever wins the MVP, meaning it will again go to either Newton or Palmer. (You’ll have to scroll down a couple inches to find out who I actually think will win. I’m sure the suspense is killing you.)

I think at some point soon we need to sit down and give a hard definition of this award, and I think we should make this an award for the best non-quarterback in the league. Let the quarterbacks have the MVP every year, and give this award to a running back or wide receiver or offensive lineman (like that is ever going to happen) who dominates at the highest level. And this year that would be Antonio Brown, who finished with 136 catches for 1834 yards, both marks in the top five in league history.

Julio Jones had better numbers, but he did so in a more pass happy offense with a quarterback who played all sixteen games. Brown had to deal with Michael Vick and Landry Jones for four games this season, and he still nearly broke every receiving record in the book. If Roethlisberger had been healthy all year, Brown would have finished with 150 catches for over 2000 yards, and even with the drop in production, he still had the best season of any receiver in the league.

Defensive Player of the Year

Who Should Win: JJ Watt

Who Will Win: JJ Watt

In many ways, a slightly down year has demonstrated just how dominant Watt is when at his best. He was his usual destructive self for the first half of the year, before a broken hand limited his playmaking ability down the stretch. He still finished with a league leading 17.5 sacks, and he was a major part of Houston’s run over the second half of the year.

But if there was a year that someone would challenge him, this was it. Josh Norman took the next step and became one of the best cornerbacks in the league, the clearest case of player growth on a team that leapt to the best record in the NFL. Before a torn ACL ended his season, Tyrann Mathieu showed himself to be every bit the unique playmaking force he was in college. Von Miller led the best defense in the league, Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack took massive steps forward in their second seasons, and Seattle’s defense was filled with its usual depth of athletic playmakers.

And none of them could touch Watt. Even though was injured, even though he wasn’t at his best the entire year, he was still the class of the NFL on the defensive side of the ball. With every season that passes he is moving himself further into the conversation for greatest defensive player of all time, and over the next five years he should be the first name in any conversation for this award.

MVP

Who Should Win: Cam Newton

Who Will Win: Cam Newton

This is another award that has emerged as a consensus after a tumultuous season, and I can’t say I disagree with the outcome. For the past month this has been essentially a two man race, with Carson Palmer and Cam Newton battling for the award as their teams raced for the top overall seed. The final outcome of their teams doesn’t mean a lot to me (though it does to some of the voters), but in the end Newton proved that he deserved the award more than Palmer.

The traditional stats favor Palmer, but once you factor in Newton’s 636 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, things become a lot closer. And when you sit down and watch the two of them play, it’s hard not to be staggered by the way Newton is performing this year. He is everything to this offense, elevating a mediocre receiving corps and turning a potent running attack into one of the most dangerous in the league. The ball just comes out of his hand different than it does for other quarterbacks, making up for the inability of his receivers to create separation by fitting into windows that other quarterbacks simply can’t hit.

Carolina put together one of the best seasons in recent memory, despite not being all that impressive on paper. Their performance can be attributed to many things, but a great deal of the credit belongs to their coach and quarterback. If everything goes as expected, they will celebrate with well earned hardware, and will be able to move on from the regular season and turn their attention to a playoff run.