How the Wild Card Was Won

After one week of thrilling playoff action, we are just about ready to start the next. Last week was filled with surprises, with every home team falling for the first time in NFL history. Of course, surprise is an entirely relative term, considering that the favorites ended up winning each and every game.

There was nothing shocking about last week’s outcomes, as everyone with a minor familiarity with football kindly pointed out. As overly simplistic as ever, much of this analysis pointed towards a single player on each team. It was no coincidence, these people claimed, that the better quarterback came out on top in each and every game. Alex Smith beat Brian Hoyer, Ben Roethlisberger trumped AJ McCarron, Russell Wilson outlasted Teddy Bridgewater, and Aaron Rodgers ran away from Kirk Cousins.

I’m not going to deny that there’s some truth to this, but there was a lot more happening in these games than just the quarterback position. For one, Smith was the only quarterback in the entire field to play what I would describe as a “good game” over the first weekend, and Wilson was actually outplayed by the passer across the field from him. These teams certainly benefited from having a quality quarterback, but there are other aspects of their teams that were just as crucial for their victories, aspects that will prove just as critical for any deeper postseason run.

Kansas City Chiefs: Lockdown Coverage

This is the most obvious case of a quarterback situation being used to oversimplify the outcome of a game, but it’s hard not to blame people for doing so. Brian Hoyer was simply awful on Saturday, and while Alex Smith didn’t do anything spectacular, the gap between average and Hoyer was about as large as it is possible to get.

But as bad as Hoyer was, and as many of the mistakes go entirely on his shoulders, we need to give the defense of the Chiefs some credit as well. This unit has been playing at a top notch level for the past three months, and they delivered their best performance of the season when it mattered the most. Shutting out any NFL team, even one quarterbacked by Hoyer, is quite an accomplishment, and it shows just why Kansas City can be dangerous the rest of the way.

Things started up front where, even with Justin Houston clearly at reduced strength, the combination of Tamba Hali, Dontari Poe, and Dee Ford was enough to apply consistent pressure in the backfield. A couple of Hoyer’s interceptions were thrown with pressure in his face, forcing him into ill timed or inaccurate throws. The easiest way to build a great defense is by pressuring the quarterback, and Houston did that to great effect on Saturday.

If the pass rush was where Kansas City’s defense stopped, they would still be a dangerous unit. But there is more to this team than just the front seven, as they showed in absolutely strangling Houston’s passing game. With a pair of athletic and physical cornerbacks on the outside and an absolute lightning bolt in Eric Berry at safety, it is nearly impossible for any receiver to get open against this team.

I was critical of Marcus Peters last week when picking the Defensive Rookie of the Year, pointing out that his interception numbers are inflated and that he was beaten far more often than a Pro Bowl level cornerback should be. But being second to Ronald Darby among rookies still makes him a pretty damn good cornerback, and as a number two guy opposite Sean Smith he is certainly an excellent piece to have on the defensive side. Smith himself is incredibly underrated, and since coming back from an early season suspension he has been among the top pass defenders in the game.

Houston’s receiving corps doesn’t have the depth to scare anyone, but few teams can boast a receiver with the talent of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins finished third in the league in receptions and receiving yards despite the rotating door at quarterback in Houston this year, and the Texans did their best to force the ball to him against Kansas City. But eleven targets turned into just six catches for 69 yards, and Houston’s offense was rendered impotent without the contributions of their best player.

The Chiefs will be facing a different sort of test this weekend against New England. With Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola both reasonably healthy, the Patriots will once again have their full stable of unique receivers to attack the opposing defense. The quick and shifty pass catchers will be a difficult matchup for Kansas City’s larger and more physical cornerbacks, and they could struggle chasing them around the field on New England’s quick passes. This isn’t a great matchup for Kansas City, but if they can find a way to get their hands on the Patriots receivers at the line, they can push them around and disrupt the offense, giving their pass rush the time they need to close in on Tom Brady.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Run Defense

The book on Pittsburgh has been extremely clear this year. Apart from the games they played without Ben Roethlisberger, this has been a team defined by their offense, an explosive unit that needs to put up points to cover the holes on their defense. At times it works, like in their first matchup against the Broncos, but at other times it fails, such as in their shootout loss to the Seahawks. For the first time in recent memory, the Pittsburgh defense is a genuine liability for the team, something that would hold them back even if they didn’t have to worry about the injuries dotting their offense.

There is no way to sugarcoat the wretchedness of the Steelers pass defense, but quietly have been one of the better run defenses in the league this year, a strength that showed up last weekend against Cincinnati. With AJ McCarron under center, it was obvious from the first snap of the ball that the Bengals were going to try to feed their running game, and with a pair of talented backs in Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard, this seemed like an effective strategy. But 78 ground yards later, the Bengals found themselves on the wrong end of the outcome, scoring only 16 points and letting the Steelers take it with a last minute field goal.

The Bengals have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and over the course of the regular season they were one of the most complete and balanced offenses in the league. They should have been able to shove their way through the Steelers, and the fact that they didn’t is a testament to just how underrated Pittsburgh’s front seven is.

Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt don’t get the credit they deserve, but they are two of the best defensive ends in the league, trapped in a scheme that limits their sack numbers and keeps them from drawing national attention. And against the Bengals they were absolute wrecking balls, consistently controlling the line of scrimmage and letting the linebackers flow to the ball behind them.

The linebackers are another story as well, a group of high draft prospects who have unfairly earned the label of disappointments. Each of their four starting linebackers is a former first round pick, including the past three first round picks the Steelers have had. Bud Dupree is still a rookie, and after an up and down season most people have already stopped paying attention to the athletic but raw draft pick out of Kentucky. He had his usual bumps and bruises through the Cincinnati game, but he made several nice plays as well, and he will come along for the team eventually.

The one player that everyone has called a bust is Jarvis Jones. After tearing apart the SEC to the tune of 28 sacks in two years, his lack of athleticism has proven to be a fatal flaw in the NFL. Though he did manage to sack and strip McCarron on Saturday, he still has shown no sign of applying a consistent pass rush. But in his time in the NFL, he has developed into a very quality run defender, a stiff presence on the outside that plays with discipline and closes down running lanes.

And then there's Ryan Shazier. I'm not sure I can put into words what he did this past Saturday. He was absolutely everywhere against the Bengals, making plays in parts of the field no other NFL linebacker could even hope to reach. His speed has always been at another level, but so far in his career he has struggled to stay on the field. He made up for it against the Bengals however, by covering every single part of the field. In the run game and in the pass game, he was the true difference maker for Pittsburgh, keeping the Bengals down even as the Steelers offense was struggling.

Things are going to be difficult for the Steelers this weekend, facing off against a Broncos team with both their leading rusher and receiver sidelined. Ben Roethlisberger will be asked to carry this team on his own, but there’s no way to know what condition he will be in. If the Steelers are going to win this game, they will need to do so by keeping things to a reasonably low score again, hoping they can make a few big plays to fight through a better and healthier Broncos team.

My thoughts on the Broncos are difficult to make sense of. While I agree with the decision to start Peyton Manning, I think that Brock Osweiler might actually give them a better shot to win this particular game. Going forward the Broncos will need the upside brought to their offense by the experience and intelligence of Manning, but against the Steelers their best hope is to simply avoid mistakes. The Steelers will once again stack up against the run, and they will force the ball into the hands of the quarterback. Despite missing a large chunk of the season, Manning still finished second to only Blake Bortles in interceptions, and if pressed he could very easily end up throwing the game back into Pittsburgh’s hands.

Seattle Seahawks: Avoiding Negative Plays

The part of me that is still bitter wanted to make this all about luck, but I have to give Seattle credit for doing some things right. They put themselves in a position where a few breaks were enough to win them the game, and there is no shame in advancing through a few fortuitous bounces. Simply staying alive is the key at this point in the year, and Seattle has found an excellent formula to keep themselves in any game.

After the botched snap and faceplant by their punter on the opening drive, Seattle played an extraordinarily clean final three and a half quarters. They didn’t make a lot of big plays themselves, but they avoided any disasters, and in a game played in these conditions, that’s all a team really has to do. Sooner or later someone is going to make a mistake, and that team is likely going to be the one to lose.

For the Vikings their first mistake came in the form of an Adrian Peterson fumble, setting the Seahawks up for a lead taking field goal. But even before that, Seattle had managed to dodge a major bullet, with the unforgettable play in which Russell Wilson turned a snap over his shoulder into a forty yard gain. The completion was absolutely incredible, but it was really just a bonus on top of an already great play. The Vikings had Wilson dead to rights in the backfield, and he somehow managed to break their contain, to get away from a potential twenty yard loss that would have eliminated their excellent field position and killed the drive.

The key to avoiding negative plays on offense is usually an offensive line, but this is one case where all the credit has to go to Wilson. Though Bridgewater outplayed him in most measurable ways, Wilson did enough of the smaller things necessary to keep his team in the game. Time and time again he avoided pressure and made a play, either a completion or a throwaway that kept their offense on schedule. He contributed in the running game as well, carrying out fakes to slow Minnesota’s aggressive defense and keep Christine Michael clean in the backfield. The Vikings were tearing apart Seattle’s offensive line, but the versatility of Wilson kept them from making the big plays they are normally capable of.

There is no better example of this than a play that took place on the drive following Peterson’s fumble. Seattle took over at the 40 yard line of the Vikings, in excellent position but still not within reach for Steven Hauschka on this frigid day. Three plays gained them eleven yards and a new set of downs, getting them just barely inside their kicker’s range. The Vikings defense needed a play, and Everson Griffen nearly delivered. On first down Seattle ran a play action with a bootleg to the left, hoping to get Wilson clean to the perimeter. But Griffen stayed home on the fake, and he was in perfect position to bring down the quarterback for a significant loss. But somehow Wilson managed to stay upright long enough to throw the ball out of bounds, avoiding a sack and keeping them in range for what proved to be a game winning field goal.

Seattle’s offense was clicking on all cylinders at the end of the regular season, but things will become more difficult going forward. Against Carolina this weekend they’ll be facing a defense even tougher than Minnesota’s, and though the conditions will be friendlier, they could wind up playing a similar low scoring game. They will need their quarterback to once again use his athletic ability to avoid serious negative plays, because chances are good that Carolina won’t let them off the hook as easily as the Vikings did.

Green Bay Packers: Offensive Playmakers

 

After 35 points in a win against the Redskins, it's easy to forget how bad the Packers offense played over the second half of the regular season. Three times in their final six games they failed to eclipse 20 points, after doing so in all but two of their first ten games. After six straight victories to open the year, the Packers won only four games the rest of the way, in a large part due to the collapse of their offense.

This failure came out of nowhere, and it inevitably provoked a lot of speculation about what could be causing it. The most obvious explanation for the Packers was injuries. Their offensive line fell to pieces after being spectacularly healthy a year ago, and with Jordy Nelson out their receiving corps was as thinner than any that Aaron Rodgers had every worked with. The regression of Eddie Lacy only compounded the problem, stripping any hope of versatility from their offense.

Rodgers was stuck behind a broken offensive line throwing to receivers who couldn’t get open or catch the football, and even great quarterbacks would struggle in this situation. But there was more to Rodgers’s problems over the second half of the season than just the players around him. He was missing throws he normally makes, holding the ball too long and throwing inaccurately when he finally let it go. In a lot of ways, Rodgers was simply bad down the stretch of the season, and he deserves his share of the blame for what happened.

After Green Bay’s performance on Sunday, it is easy enough to give the credit to Rodgers for elevating a mediocre supporting cast. And while he certainly played better than he has recently, it wasn’t by enough to explain Green Bay’s jump in performance. Rodgers still missed a number of easy plays he normally makes, and he still is a reason to be concerned about the Packers going forward. But the performance of the rest of their offense is a reason for optimism, on the off chance they can keep it up.

For the first time all season the combination of Lacy and James Starks flashed the potential they’ve shown over the past two years, controlling the game in the second half as the Packers pulled away from the Redskins. Though Green Bay hasn’t run the ball well this year, their running backs have proven effective on screen passes, and that’s something they can exploit against Arizona’s aggressive defense.

But the real change was on the outside, where Green Bay's depleted and mediocre group of receivers made the sort of plays that have been missing from their offense all year. Randall Cobb looked genuinely elusive for the first time since signing his new contract, and James Jones and Davante Adams actually looked like quality NFL receivers. At times they looked like more than that, pulling contested catches away in crucial situations to keep the Packers offense moving.

Things will naturally become more challenging this weekend against a significantly better defense than Washington’s. As vulnerable as a defense is to a screen when blitzing, Arizona is one of the few teams in the league with the athletes who could make it work. And on the outside they have playmakers to match Green Bay’s, and they will make life significantly more difficult for the Packers receivers. It’s very likely that last week’s performance was just a flash in the pan, but if the Packers are going to have any hope going forward, they will need the players around Rodgers to continue to make plays like they did this past Sunday.