First Overall

As we approach the Championship Round, we find ourselves once again reminded of the greatness of Tom Brady. This is the tenth time that Brady has made it this far in the playoffs, by far an NFL record. This level of consistent success is particularly impressive, considering where Brady started. As the 199^th pick in the 2000 NFL Draft, he was never supposed to be a starting quarterback, much less a first ballot Hall of Famer. And as we enter draft season, Brady stands once again as a reminder that a team can solve their quarterback problem anywhere in the draft.

Of course, if you’re a fan of this argument, you probably shouldn’t look too closely at the other three quarterbacks playing today, each of whom was selected with the very first pick in the draft. In fact, more than a quarter of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL were selected first overall, and over the past five years it has become increasingly clear that the surest way to solve a quarterback problem is to end up with the worst record in the league.

So I decided to have some fun on this occasion. Below I’ve gone through and ranked every quarterback selected first overall between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton, starting from the worst and working my way up to the very best. It is a very interesting group, with a wide variety of career paths, and three of the most interesting will be on the field today, fighting for a chance to make it to the Super Bowl.

2007: Jamarcus Russell

When talking about the biggest draft bust of all time, there are only two possible answers. The first is Ryan Leaf, picked second overall after a player you’ll find lower on the list. The other is Russell, the very first player off the board in 2007.

The debate between who was a bigger disappointment is actually very interesting. Both players were as big a problem off the field as they were on it, so I can’t give either an edge there. Leaf put up worse stats during his time in the NFL, but he played in a more difficult era for quarterbacks, so simply having worse numbers might not do it.

In the end, I think the difference comes down to two things. Leaf was picked second overall, ahead of two surefire Hall of Famers (Randy Moss and Charles Woodson) and a pretty good collection of players. Russell went first overall, ahead of Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, and Darrelle Revis, all of whom have earned their places in Canton. Add to that the difference in their contracts ($13 million guaranteed to Leaf vs $32 million guaranteed to Russell), and I have to call Jamarcus Russell not just the worst pick on this list, but also the worst of all time.

1999 and 2002: Tim Couch and David Carr

I’m putting these two together because they both belong in the same category, the “what might have been”. These two quarterbacks followed remarkably similar paths, as they were drafted to be the face of an expansion franchise and failed miserably. Based solely on their accomplishments, they should be considered busts, but the circumstances around their careers make these cases more like tragic accidents than cautionary tales.

Prior to the return of the Browns to Cleveland in 1999, the NFL’s last expansion had come in 1995, when Jacksonville and Carolina entered the league. These two teams had remarkable immediate success, both reaching the championship round by their second season. As quickly as they rose, the NFL decided that they had to reevaluate the expansion process during the next round, giving Cleveland and Houston significantly less to work with.

Of course, their course correction went too far in the opposite direction, and when the Browns and Texans spent their first ever selections on quarterbacks, they immediately set up these two players for failure. Carr is the obvious example everyone thinks of, and he is still responsible for two of the three worst sack seasons by a quarterback in NFL history. But Couch was victim of the same circumstances, and under better conditions he may very well have lived up to his draft slot.

It is, of course, impossible to say, which is why I have to put them below every other quarterback on this list. Perhaps it was the team around them, or perhaps these were just two players incapable of playing at a high level in the NFL. Maybe Carr was never good enough to adjust to the talent jump between Fresno State and the NFL. Maybe Couch was another example of a quarterback who put up big numbers in college but failed once he was taken out of his system. I’m tempted to move them past the next quarterback on the list, but as unlucky as they were, I still have to give the edge to someone else lingering on the edge of bust conversation.

2010: Sam Bradford

I’ve never liked Bradford. I didn’t like him coming out of college, I didn’t like him after his Rookie of the Year season, and I don’t like him now, after he put together arguably the best season of his career in Philadelphia. I’ve been consistent on Bradford, but everyone else seems to have changed their positions two or three times.

There are multiple possible narratives we can fit Bradford into. The first is the talented quarterback whose career was ruined by poor coaching and health issues. A fantastic rookie season quickly evaporated behind uninspired play calling and injuries that robbed him of his physical gifts. Another version is that of a fundamentally limited passer who showed flashes when he first entered the league but never had the tools to grow into something more. The league probably should have given up on him years ago, and the fact that he’s likely going to open next season as a starting quarterback is an indictment of the talent in the league right now.

I think it’s a little bit of all of this. Bradford is undoubtedly talented, but he thrived in very specific conditions in college, conditions that couldn’t be replicated in the NFL. Everyone talks about “system quarterbacks” when a player is mobile like Tim Tebow or Robert Griffin III, but Bradford was every bit the system quarterback in Oklahoma’s spread passing attack. When he got to the NFL and was suddenly not standing behind a behemoth wall and throwing to the best athletes on the field, he lacked the tools to take over a game himself.

This is all true, but I do believe there is an alternate reality in which Bradford is a successful NFL player. The scheme he ran in college isn’t all that different from the one New England is running now, and even though he clearly isn’t Tom Brady, the Rams could have found a better way to use him. Chip Kelly actually managed to pull some of that off down the stretch in 2015, but by this point it is too late. Bradford is what he is, a bust of a first overall pick.

2001: Michael Vick

At his best Vick was the most exciting player in the NFL, but excitement was never enough to revolutionize the game in the way many people expected when he was selected first overall. The talent was always undeniable, the arm strength and the elusiveness as a runner, but he wasn’t able to put the full package together.

It’s impossible to talk about Vick without mentioning the dog fighting conviction, which cut into the prime of his career and permanently tarnished whatever legacy he was building. But even if he’d remained in Atlanta, I think he had established the sort of player he was.

His athleticism was always an asset, and he certainly could make enough plays to win his team any game. But in the end, he never had the discipline to truly refine his game, and he was never able to mesh with the NFL as it existed ten years ago. Perhaps things would have been different if he entered the league now, when coaches are more open to trying innovative schemes to support unique talents. But I think the reality is that Vick was always limited, and that as fun as he was to watch, he wasn’t worth the pick that was used on him.

2005: Alex Smith

 

Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be the first overall pick in 2005. This isn’t something I’m just saying in hindsight, not an idea I’m just coming up with after seeing how their careers progressed. For most of the predraft process, Rodgers was the favorite to go first off the board. He was better in college than Smith, from a system that was more suited to an NFL transition, and he had all the local connections to San Francisco.

So why did Smith end up going first? There were a number of factors, all of which seem stupid now. For one, people were worried that Rodgers was just a system quarterback. Cal coach Jeff Tedford had produced five former first round picks, and by this point all five had been ruled off as busts. There were worries that Rodgers would be just another Trent Dilfer or Joey Harrington. The 49ers also wanted someone more mobile, and after succeeding in Urban Meyer’s system at Utah, Smith’s versatility moved him up to the first pick.

Smith is another one who has had an interesting career. I honestly don’t know whether or not to call him a bust, but for his first six years in the league there was absolutely no debate about it. He was bad from the moment he stepped onto the field, and he stayed bad until his career was rescued by Jim Harbaugh. We know what happened after that of course, with an injury leading to his replacement by Colin Kaepernick and eventual trade to Kansas City.

It would have surprised no one if he regressed after leaving Harbaugh, but it turns out that Andy Reid is a pretty damn good coach too. Smith had the best year of his career in 2015, carrying the Chiefs to a ten game winning streak and a playoff victory. He has proven to be worth the two second round picks Kansas City gave up for him, even if he was never worth the pick San Francisco used to take him.

2009: Matthew Stafford

It’s hard to say anything decisive about the career Stafford has put together so far. A couple years ago it looked like he had a chance to become one of the best quarterbacks in the league, as he threw for over 5000 yards and led the Lions to the playoffs. With Stafford at quarterback, Calvin Johnson on the outside, and Ndamukong Suh anchoring the defense, the Lions looked like a team ready to break out.

But they didn’t, and Stafford’s stagnation bears a lot of responsibility for that. His numbers have always been fantastic, but they are propped up by playing in a pass heavy scheme with a truly dominant wide receiver. And now that the Lions look like they’re on a downward trend, with Johnson nowhere near what he used to be and even discussing retirement, there are questions about whether or not they should stick with Stafford as their long term solution at quarterback.

The contract situation is a bit of a problem, but other than that I can’t imagine any reason to part ways with Stafford. This is a team about to enter another rebuilding phase, and I can understand why they wouldn’t want to stick with a big money quarterback through that. But Stafford is still only 27 years old, and if the Lions do things right, they can rebuild the team around him while he’s still in his prime. Things are looking bad for Stafford right now, but he is the sort of player I can see having a late career resurgence, much like one of the quarterbacks we’ll get to further down the list.

2011: Cam Newton

Newton is the most recent draft pick on this list (I decided to exclude Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston because they haven’t been around long enough), but he has already earned a high spot, and could climb even higher by the end of his career. He is likely to walk away from this season with the league’s MVP, one of only two players on this list to claim that award. After some ups and downs over his first few seasons, he has developed into one of the best players in the NFL, and he has a chance to earn a championship this year to further his growing legacy.

I have to admit that I was wrong about Newton. I thought he was a borderline first round pick, a quarterback who dominated by running in college but would struggle when forced into the NFL’s pass heavy system. I underestimated him on two counts. First of all, he was a much better passer coming into the league than I realized, as he demonstrated by setting an NFL record for passing yards in a debut. And second, he has grown better than I expected, in five years turning into one of the preeminent passers in the league.

I cannot stress this last point enough. Newton has a reputation as a mobile quarterback, and he certainly has the skills to justify this. He is an absolute weapon in the running game, either through read option plays or designed quarterback keepers. But unlike some other mobile quarterbacks (notably Vick), he is at his best when throwing from the pocket.

Carolina isn’t a very heavily watched team, so it’s understandable that people have some misconceptions. But if you really watch the Panthers this weekend, you’ll be surprised by what you see from Newton. Unlike other mobile quarterbacks like Alex Smith and Russell Wilson, the majority of the damage Newton does with his legs comes on designed carries. When a play is called as a pass, he almost always completes the play from the pocket. In fact, he actually could probably benefit from being more aggressive with his legs, not that he needs much improvement. Newton was the best player in the league this season, and he could very easily hold onto that title for the next five years.

2003: Carson Palmer

The two quarterbacks facing each other in the NFC Championship Game find themselves back to back on my rankings, and in truth I could have put them in either order. I gave Palmer the edge for now due to longevity, but I think before long Newton will climb past him on the list. But for now I give the edge to Palmer in this one, even though I think Newton will beat him for the MVP this year and for the game this weekend.

Of all the players on this list, Palmer may have had the most fascinating career. He’s the only one not to start a game his rookie year, sitting for an entire season on the bench behind Jon Kitna. But when he did make it onto the field, he absolutely exploded, quickly earning the title of best young quarterback in the league. In 2005 he finished fourth in the league in passing yards, second in quarterback rating, first in completion percentage, and first in touchdowns. He led the Bengals to the playoffs for the first time since 1990, and on his very first pass of the game he completed a 66 yard bomb to get the Bengals in position to take an early lead.

Unfortunately, he also suffered a torn ACL on that play, ending any hopes the Bengals had of a playoff run. The Steelers went on to win that game and eventually the Super Bowl, and Ben Roethlisberger took over as the preeminent young quarterback in the AFC North. Palmer came back in time to start the opening game of the next season, but he was never the same in Cincinnati. He toiled along as a slightly above average quarterback for the next five years, another case of what might have been.

In 2011 the Bengals used a second round pick on Andy Dalton, signaling the impending end of the Palmer era. For obvious reasons, this upset Palmer, and he announced that he would rather retire than play for the Bengals. And for the first half of the 2011 season, that’s exactly what he did, until Jason Campbell’s injury in Oakland forced the Raiders to sell everything they had to get Palmer. But that was the era of Oakland as a death trap for veteran players, and after a year and a half there he was shipped out to Arizona for a sixth round pick.

That was supposed to be the end of Carson Palmer, but clearly it wasn’t. Somehow, ten years and two torn ACLs removed from his breakout year, Palmer finally became one of the best quarterbacks in the league. While he isn’t a Hall of Famer, he has certainly shown himself to be one of the best of the next level, and even though he’s put together a damn fine career (which definitely still has more to be written), it’s hard not to wonder what he could have been.

2004: Eli Manning

Eli Manning is the quarterback for the New York Giants, which means everyone already knows everything there is to know about him. Younger brother of a superstar, he went first overall to San Diego, then was immediately shipped to the Giants. He got off to a slow start to his career, not truly breaking out until the Super Bowl run in 2007. He’s been up and down since then, putting together some very good seasons to go along with some decidedly mediocre ones.

Manning is the third best quarterback to come out of his draft class, but when the time comes for the Hall of Fame to give him consideration, his two championships will likely get him in. And he has certainly earned those championships, playing at a spectacularly high level in both games (even if he probably doesn’t deserve two Super Bowl MVPs). This is a rare situation where things worked out for everyone. Eli got to play in a big market, the Chargers got the superior player in Rivers, and the Giants got two championships. If Manning has been disappointing at times, that’s only reasonable. It’s a rare quarterback who can constantly live up to the superstar billing.

1998: Peyton Manning

And now we come to it, that rare quarterback. There isn’t much to say about Manning that hasn’t already been said. He struggled some at the very start of his career, but for nearly fifteen years he was among the five best quarterbacks in the league, often at the very top of the list. Five MVPs, just about every passing record you can name, and insane success during the regular season. He is the greatest quarterback the NFL has ever seen, and I almost wish I didn’t have to address the one thing everyone will continue to hold against his legacy.

But in the end, it is about Super Bowls, and over the course of his career Manning only has two appearances and a single victory. Time and time again he came up short in the playoffs, a blemish that stands in particularly sharp contrast to his contemporary Tom Brady. The two face each other once again today to decide which of them will make another appearance in the Super Bowl, and right now everything seems to be in Brady’s favor, with Manning playing like a shell of his former self.

But that’s the thing about judging quarterbacks by championships. While it certainly helps to have a superstar under center, no single player can win a championship by himself. And for the first time in nearly a decade, Manning is actually at the head of a more talented team than Brady. If the Broncos manage to win a championship this year, it will be because of their defense and their running game, not because of the Hall of Famer they have at quarterback.

And that would be as fitting an end as any to Manning’s career. His teammates have held him back for far too long, and if he was put in the exact same situation as Brady he likely would have just as many Super Bowls, perhaps even more. A second ring wouldn’t be diminished at all by his ineffectiveness this year, because he has already done more than enough to earn it. Football is a team sport, and there is no greater example of this than Manning, the most valuable individual player the league has ever seen stuck with only a single championship as he draws near the end of his career.