There are six weeks left in the
season, and this is the time when the race for the playoffs starts to get
interesting. The contenders have separated themselves from the pretenders, and
now is the chance for the top teams to pull away and earn their way into the
postseason. Over the next six weeks we’ll see game after game of exciting
meaningful football, as team by team the twelve playoff spots are filled.
Let’s take a look at where things
stand right now. In the AFC, well, the division races aren’t super interesting.
The Patriots are undefeated with a five game lead over the Bills and the Jets,
and they could conceivably clinch the division this weekend. The Broncos are
8-2 with a three game lead over the Chiefs, and Cincinnati is two games ahead
of Pittsburgh with the tiebreaker edge. The Wild Card race is a bit more
interesting, though if the Steelers can keep Ben Roethlisberger healthy, they
look like they’ll run away with the five seed.
Things aren’t much more
competitive in the NFC. The Panthers have run away with the division, and with
the schedule they have coming up, it’s hard to see them losing out on the top
seed. Things could get interesting if Seattle makes a run at the NFC West, but Arizona’s
three game lead seems pretty safe. Green Bay’s recent struggles have made
things far more competitive than they should be in the NFC North, but I still
think they’ll beat Minnesota pretty handily in the end.
So with six weeks left, it feels
pretty safe to set the playoffs up as follows:
AFC NFC
1. New England 1.
Carolina
2. Denver/Cincinnati 2.
Arizona
3. Denver/Cincinnati 3.
Green Bay
4. AFC South 4.
NFC East
5. Pittsburgh 5.
Minnesota/Seattle/Atlanta
6. Buffalo/Jets/Kansas City 6.
Minnesota/Seattle/Atlanta
There are a few things worth
watching, but for the most part the playoff field is not particularly wide
open. I suppose you could get invested in the battles in the NFC East and AFC
South, but outside of that there is very little drama present in this year’s
races.
Of course, there’s another race
to watch at this time of year, and to our great luck, it is going to be very
competitive this season. I am of course talking about the race for the first
overall pick. And with fourteen teams having between two and four wins, this
could be one of the great races of our lifetime.
I really would like to break down
every team in contention, but with so many great options to choose from, I’m
going to have to restrict myself to teams I believe have a legitimate shot. It’s
very possible that the team that ends up with the first pick is not on this
list, but in the end it will most likely be one of these ten teams.
As a reminder, draft order is
decided based on reverse order of finish. For teams that finish with the same
record, the higher pick goes to the team with the easier strength of schedule.
So the teams below with the best current chance are the teams with the worst
records and the easiest schedules.
Detroit Lions
Record: 4-7
Strength of Schedule: .515
Remaining
Opponents: Green Bay, @St Louis, @New Orleans, San Francisco, @Chicago
The first overall pick seems
suddenly out of reach for the Lions, winners of three straight games. They are
playing their best football of the season right now, and it’s not impossible to
imagine them getting another two or three wins down the stretch. Their biggest
problem early in the season was on the offensive line, and even though it’s
still far from a strength, it has come together well enough to allow the stars
on their offense to flash their abilities.
Offensive line is also what they
should address with their first draft pick. I could also conceivably see them
going for a piece on their suddenly shorthanded defense, perhaps a cornerback
to put opposite Darius Slay or a defensive lineman to support Ziggy Ansah. But
a lineman could fix the inconsistency of their offensive line and turn them
into one of the better units in the league. Grab someone like Laremy Tunsil or
Ronnie Stanley, plug them in at left tackle, and slide Reilly Reiff over to the
right side, and this has the look of a top notch line, the sort that could
carry this team back to the playoffs regardless of what becomes of their
defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 4-6
Strength of Schedule: .491
Remaining
Opponents: San Diego, @Tennessee, Indianapolis, Atlanta, @New Orleans, @Houston
The next two weeks are crucial
for Jacksonville. If they want any hope of winning the first overall pick, they
need to find a way to lose to both San Diego and Tennessee. Of course, Jaguars
fans have other ideas, since as a member of the AFC South, they are in that
special place where they are still alive for both the division and the worst
record in the league.
Honestly, I don’t think there’s
any chance the Jaguars end up with the first overall pick. There’s too much
talent on the offensive side of the ball, and their schedule is too easy for
them to go winless. But I wanted to talk about them, because even if they don’t
end up with the top pick, they could still be in position to get a selection in
the top five or the top ten. Ad of all the potential prospect-team matchups, I
can’t think of any that would be more perfect than Joey Bosa going to
Jacksonville.
The Jaguars have a lot of talent
on offense, and even though they could use some help on their line, I think
their best bet is to spend their first pick on defense. They did the same last
year with Dante Fowler, who unfortunately lost out on his rookie season due to
a knee injury. He’ll be back next year, and there would be nothing better than
pairing him with another elite young pass rusher. Assuming they keep Gus
Bradley around (which they should), their defense will continue to run the same
scheme as Seattle’s, and these two players would absolutely thrive in that system.
I see a lot of Michael Bennett in Bosa, and Fowler can become a rich man’s
Cliff Avril, giving them two versatile pass rushers who can attack from any
angle. It’s probably out of reach, but this has to be the dream scenario for a
team capable of taking a massive step forward next year.
Miami Dolphins
Record: 4-6
Strength of Schedule: .475
Remaining
Opponents: @Jets, Baltimore, Giants, @San Diego, Indianapolis, New England
Remember that brief stretch where
we thought that replacing their coach had turned things around for Miami? Yeah,
it turns out that was just the luck of playing two straight AFC South
opponents. Since then they’ve lost three of four, and they’ve looked like the
same team that struggled through the early part of the season. Their running
game isn’t working, their defensive line isn’t controlling games, and Ryan
Tannehill has regressed severely since receiving his new contract.
In order to receive the first
overall pick, the Dolphins will need to lose their next six games. That should
be doable for this team, and their strength of schedule will give them a
fighting chance in any tiebreaker situation. If they do get the first pick,
things become a bit trickier from there. They don’t need a defensive lineman,
and they are probably comfortable at offensive tackle as well. As bad as
Tannehill has been, they can’t replace him this offseason. Their best option
would probably be to take an inside linebacker like Myles Jack or Jaylon Smith,
even though that isn’t a position of particularly great value. Both are
fantastic players however, and if their defensive line can live up to its
potential, there will be plenty of opportunities for them to make plays.
Washington Redskins
Record: 4-6
Strength of Schedule: .500
Remaining Opponents:
Ugh. That’s all I can really say
about the fact that Washington is still very much alive in the NFC East race.
This is not a good football team, but they’re occasionally capable of playing
at a high enough level to compete with anyone. They can also be blown out by
anyone, all depending on the performance of Kirk Cousins. Cousins can certainly
make some good plays, but he also turns the ball over at an absurd rate. If he
goes on a bad run, this team could give away their final six games, and they
have a soft enough schedule that they could win a tiebreaker for the first
selection.
There are a lot of holes that
need to be filled on this team. Quarterback is the obvious one, and there could
be a few options available at the top of the draft. They could also use
improvement in their secondary, where the best options available are Jalen
Ramsey or Vernon Hargreaves. This team is sorely lacking top talent after
giving away three first round picks for Robert Griffin III, and they really
need to hit in this year’s draft.
San Francisco 49ers
Record: 3-7
Strength of
Schedule: .534
Remaining
Opponents: Arizona, @Chicago, @Cleveland, Cincinnati, @Detroit, St Louis
How the mighty have fallen. It’s
amazing just how quickly losing several Pro Bowl players and one of the best
football coaches in the world can demolish a team, but here we are. San
Francisco is truly awful, worse than they should probably be with the talent
still on their roster, and they could conceivably finish the season with three
or four wins. The only game they might be the favorites in is Cleveland, and
even that is on the road. The relatively tough schedule will hurt them if it
comes down to a tiebreaker, but with some luck they could still end up with the
top pick.
There are multiple holes on this
roster that could be filled in the top ten. They could use an offensive tackle
like Tunsil or Stanley if Anthony Davis doesn’t unretire, and even though there
are no glaring weaknesses on their defense, they could always use a player like
Jaylon Smith or Robert Nkemdiche.
But the number one need is pretty
obvious. This is one team that could reasonably claim they’re a quarterback
away from contention, and there are a couple of options available. The most
obvious choice would be Jared Goff, a local quarterback who would provide nice
symmetry after the last time they had the top pick, when they passed up local
Cal prospect Aaron Rodgers for Alex Smith. I’m not saying Goff will turn into
Rodgers, but he’s the best quarterback I’ve seen in college football this
season, and he is well worth using the top pick on.
Tennessee Titans
Record: 2-8
Strength of Schedule: .522
Remaining Opponents: Oakland, Jacksonville,
@Jets, @Patriots, Texans, @Colts
Tennessee is one of those teams
that, when I look at their record, I simply don’t understand how they’ve won as
few games as they have. I really like a lot of the pieces on this roster, on
both sides of the ball, and it perplexes me how they haven’t put together a
more complete team. Of course, I’ve felt the exact same way about them over the
past few seasons, so maybe this is the sort of thing I should start expecting.
When it comes to earning the
first pick, they have a couple obstacles to overcome. The first is their remaining
opponents which, with three games remaining against the AFC South, are littered
with opportunities for wins. The second is their strength of schedule,
surprisingly tough for a team in a division as bad as theirs. Matchups against
both Carolina and New England will hurt them if it comes to a tiebreaker,
meaning they probably can’t afford even one win down the stretch.
Their biggest weakness is on the
offensive line, but they spent first round picks on Jonathan Cooper and Taylor
Lewan in 2013 and 2014, so I can’t see them going that route again. Their
defensive front is strong, and they have no need at quarterback. The one
position that makes a lot of sense both in terms of the talent on their roster
and the prospects available is cornerback. Even if they don’t get the first
pick, they should have a chance at one of Ramsey and Hargreaves, giving them an
option to support, and eventually replace, the perennially underappreciated
Jason McCourtey.
Baltimore Ravens
Record: 3-7
Strength of
Schedule: .513
Remaining
Opponents: @Cleveland, @Miami, Seattle, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, @Cincinatti
“Most people expect the top
selection to go to the worst team, but more often than not it goes to a team
that had decent expectations coming into the season, a team that struggles
early and gives up down the stretch.”
I wrote that two weeks ago. At
the time I was talking about the Lions, but they proved me wrong and pulled
things together. But it looks like we’ve found a new contender in the Baltimore
Ravens, a team that was among many people’s Super Bowl picks prior to the
season. They were never that good, and some bad luck early in the year turned
into a total collapse. Injuries have only made things worse, and they will have
to play the rest of the season without Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, Justin
Forsett, and Steve Smith. Their next two weeks offer opportunities for a win to
even this depleted team, but after that they face four straight opponents in
contention for the playoffs, and it’s very possible to imagine them running off
six straight losses.
As someone who openly hates the
Ravens, this really frustrates me. I think they have enough pride in this
organization that they’ll at least try to play spoiler down the stretch, but
there is only so much they can do with Matt Schaub at quarterback. One way or
another they are going to end up with a top pick, giving them a chance to
restock their aging defense with talent. Grab a pass rusher to take over for
Suggs and Dumervil, or a cornerback to complement Jimmy Smith once he gets
fully healthy next year. With the quarterback position settled, they have the
luxury of just grabbing the best player. And as miserable as this season has
been, it will work out in the long run for one of the most consistent good
teams in the league.
Dallas Cowboys
Record: 3-8
Strength of Schedule: .537
Remaining Opponents: @Washington, @Green Bay,
Jets, @Buffalo, Washington
How things can change in a couple
days. On Monday the Cowboys were a popular pick for a late season run,
bolstered by a weak division, an easy schedule, and the return of Tony Romo.
Now, after being embarrassed on Thanksgiving by Carolina and losing Romo for
the rest of the season, their hopes of the division are gone, and they suddenly
find themselves in excellent shape to end up with the top pick.
Two games against Washington give
them opportunities to add a win, and their strength of schedule means they
probably have to go winless the rest of the way to have any shot. Even with
Matt Cassel at quarterback the rest of the way, I don’t think that’s
particularly likely. But if they do end up with the top pick, they’ll have an
interesting decision to make. They have some nice young pieces already on
defense, and they certainly don’t need an offensive lineman. Their biggest
obstacle on a yearly basis is the health of Romo, something that won’t get any
better as he continues to age.
I haven’t watched much Paxton
Lynch, but if he does end up as a top ten prospect, Dallas could be an ideal
destination. This could be the rare case where drafting a quarterback to
develop from the bench is actually worthwhile, giving them a path for the
future while also potentially bolstering their depth. Two years ago they
reportedly gave serious consideration to spending their first pick on Johnny
Manziel, and even though it’s clear now that they made the correct decision,
they have already shown signs that they are willing to draft for long term
needs rather than something more immediate.
Cleveland Browns
Record: 2-8
Strength of Schedule: .519
Remaining
Opponents: Baltimore, Cincinnati, San Francisco, @Seattle, @Kansas City,
Pittsburgh
A couple weeks ago in my
midseason review, I wrote that while the Browns are still bad at football, at
least now they’re fun to watch. Well, I take that back. The Browns aren’t good,
and they aren’t fun, and it’s absolutely ridiculous that they have a ntionally
tellivised game this week. The drama surrounding Johnny Manziel is just tiring
at this point, made even more so by the fact that even at his best he’s been
merely a league average quarterback.
Their schedule has a couple
winnable games, but that doesn’t mean much for a team like this. I could easily
see them losing out and running away with the top pick. Of course, even if they
get the first pick, I’m not sure what they’re supposed to do with it. They need
a quarterback, but after using a first round pick on one in both 2012 and 2014,
I’m not sure if they can continue to use resources on that spot.
On this roster they’d be smart to
simply take the best player available, perhaps another defensive lineman to put
beside last year’s first pick Danny Shelton in the hopes of developing some
part of their roster that could be called a strength. Whether that’s Bosa or
Nkemdiche, or if they decide to strengthen their front with a linebacker like
Smith, it probably doesn’t matter. Their player development is terrible no
matter what they do, and the franchise environment is simply toxic. It’s
possible to turn that around as Oakland is showing this year, but it’s also
possible to waste years failing to do so, as Oakland showed over the past
decade.
San Diego Chargers
Record: 2-8
Strength of Schedule: .497
Remaining
Opponents: @Jacksonville, Denver, @Kansas City, Miami, @Oakland, @Denver
Even people who were pessimistic
about San Diego’s chances this season couldn’t have expected things to be this
bad. Of course, no one expected them to suffer from injuries like they have.
Their offensive line is in pieces, Keenan Allen is out for the year, and Eric
Weddle has been fighting through injuries for the past month. The only player
they’ve been able to keep consistently healthy is Philip Rivers, and as good as
he is, he can’t carry a team by himself. They’re still not healthy, and they
could conceivably keep losing games and finish the season with only two or
three wins.
The biggest problem they need to
address this offseason is depth, but if they end up with a high draft pick,
their best bet would be to grab someone for their defense. Brandon Flowers has
been disappointing, and they could use a cornerback like Vernon Hargreaves or
Jalen Ramsey. But the best prospects are available on the defensive line, and I
could see them being a good fit for Nkemdiche. Trading back would also be a
good option, but that is always harder than it sounds, especially when there’s
no top of the line prospect teams are willing to sell the farm for. Adding one
good piece and getting healthy could definitely turn things around for San
Diego, and I could see this being a brief stop in the top ten of the draft.
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