The Worst of the Best

In the two years that I've been sharing my thoughts on the NFL in this blog, I have made no secret of the fact that I am a fan of the Minnesota Vikings. I've often seen people express the belief that analysts should remove themselves from any partiality, that being a fan renders a person incapable of rendering sound judgment. And I've always thought that this was complete nonsense, something that sounds good in theory but never works out in practice. Every person who writes about sports does so because they enjoy sports, and the vast majority of people who enjoy sports do so through the lens of cheering for a particular team. There is no such thing as a truly impartial commentator, and those who pretend to not have an emotional stake are often even more hindered by their ignorance than those who are open with their personal feelings.

This is all tangential to the main point of this article, but it’s something I’ve been thinking about quite a bit lately. I believe that I can be rational in my analysis despite my biases. I am a Vikings fan, but I have no problem saying that their 8-3 record vastly overstates the quality of their team. I despise the Packers, but I didn’t shy from writing glowingly about Aaron Rodgers a few weeks ago (incidentally, right before the Packers started their downward tumble. I should have praised Rodgers years ago.)

Everyone who knows me knows that I am a Vikings fan. And most are also aware that I have a soft spot for the Steelers, the results of a lot of family ties to the Pittsburgh area. I follow them, and I cheer for them anytime they are facing an opponent other than Minnesota. Over the course of my life, this has actually been much easier than cheering for the Vikings, and there are times I almost regret that the Vikings are stuck first in my heart for the rest of my life.

This past weekend, however, cheering for the Steelers was one of the most frustrating experiences I’ve had as a football fan. I’ve cheered for elite football teams before, and I’ve cheered for bad football teams before, but there is something uniquely maddening about cheering for this year’s Steelers. With a bad or mediocre team, you understand what you’re getting into, and you never have to deal with the reality of unreasonable expectations. When they falter, it is only mildly frustrating, as it’s what you expected the entire time.

This Steelers team is something different. Injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell have held them back, but even with Bell still out of the lineup over the past few weeks one thing has become very clear. This is the best offense in the NFL, loaded with weapons and orchestrated by a quarterback playing at as high a level as any in the league. This offense is championship caliber, and they showed it on Sunday as they carved apart an elite Seahawks defense.

On the defensive side of the ball, there is a ton of talent along their front seven. Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt make up one of the more underrated defensive lines in the league, clearing space for veteran presences like James Harrison and Lawrence Timmons as well as developing youngsters like Ryan Shazier and Bud Dupree. They aren’t elite by any means, but with this offense, they should be more than enough to get this team into the conversation as a Super Bowl favorite.

But of course, the Steelers aren’t a Super Bowl favorite. They are 6-5, currently outside the playoff picture, and on Sunday they suffered a heartbreaking loss despite the dominance of their offense. The problem is their secondary, the worst in the league and quite possibly the worst I have ever seen. On Sunday there was absolutely nothing they could do to stop Seattle, with receivers running wide open on nearly every play giving Russell Wilson all he needed to pick them apart for five touchdown passes.

The loss was frustrating, but it also got me thinking about how a single unit can sink a team. And while the Steelers are an extreme example, they aren’t the only playoff contender being held back by one part of their roster. So I decided to put together a team, picking the worst units from the best teams in order to figure out what may sink these playoff contenders, or to see how they are covering their flaws to find success that just might be sustainable.

Quarterback: New York Jets

Brian Hoyer has been playing better of late, well enough to get Houston back into contention, and since I’m still not really sure how to handle the situations in Indianapolis and Denver, I’m left with the Jets almost by default. Fortunately, Ryan Fitzpatrick has done more than enough to earn this ranking, almost singlehandedly holding back this team from running away with a playoff spot.

I was a bit skeptical of the Jets at the start of the season, but all the moves they made over the past couple years look like they’ve really paid off. Darrelle Revis has been disappointing, but he is still an above average corner, protected by the best defensive line in the league. Any shortcomings here are more than made up for by the success of their additions on offense, revitalizing a unit that looked dead in the water just a couple years ago.

Brandon Marshall is in his sweet spot right now, enjoying a new situation for the first couple years before he and his team get sick of each other. The age he showed in Chicago last season has melted away, leaving a big, physical receiver who can dominate to win Fitzpatrick’s inaccurate throws. Complemented by Eric Decker, this gives the Jets the most underrated duo of receivers in the league, which works with the powerful running of Chris Ivory to lead to a balanced offense. All they really need from a quarterback is someone who can play efficient, distribute the ball smartly, and avoid any killer mistakes.

Fitzpatrick is, unfortunately, not that guy. He has a reputation as a reliable, intelligent veteran (hey, did you know he went to Harvard?), but in reality he is one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks in the league. He’s tied with Ryan Tannehill for the seventh most interceptions in the league, and he’s suffered a couple of fumbles as well. As long as he’s protecting the football, the Jets have a chance to beat anyone. But at this point it’s too much to hope that Fitzpatrick can change, and sooner or later he will attempt to force a play that his team doesn’t need him to make.

Wide Receiver: Carolina Panthers

It was very tempting to go with the Patriots on this, particularly after all the injuries they’ve suffered. Since I’m ranking these units based on expectations down the road, injuries are very much part of the picture, and the absence of Julian Edelman and the hobblings of Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski put New England in a very perilous position. They’ve found offensive success this year by getting the ball out of Brady’s hands quickly to receivers who win off the snap, and against Denver we saw what happens when they don’t have that luxury. If their receivers can’t win, Brady has to hold the ball, leaving him vulnerable to his banged up offensive line and forcing him to make more throws down the field, the clear weak point of his game.

But as bad as the situation in New England is, it still looks like they’ll have Gronkowski down the stretch, and that gives them an edge over the abysmal receiving corps of the Panthers. It’s remarkable that Ted Ginn is even still in the league, and it’s simply laughable that he is the top wide receiver for a playoff team. Kelvin Benjamin wasn’t as good last year as many people have convinced themselves, but he was a hell of a lot better than what the Panthers have found to replace him. Greg Olsen is vital to their passing game, but aside from him they don’t have a single pass catcher who deserves to step foot on an NFL field.

So how is it that a team with this receiving corps hasn’t lost a game? The short answer is Cam Newton. He is putting together a masterful season that deserves to be in the conversation for MVP (I would currently have him in a close race with Carson Palmer for runner up behind Brady), and he continues to tear defenses apart both as a runner and a passer. Despite what many believe, he is at his best when throwing from the pocket, delivering precise lasers that can find their way into even the small windows created by his receivers. At a certain point, against more talented defenses, the burden may become too much for him to bear, but for right now he has shown himself capable of doing anything the Panthers ask of him.

Running Back: New England Patriots

The Patriots may not have the worst receiving corps, but following the loss of Dion Lewis they do have the worst running back group. This was never a top of the line unit to begin with, and even with Lewis healthy they were more dangerous as receivers out of the backfield than as runners. But without Lewis they are left completely reliant on LeGarrette Blount, a player who, while very good at what he does, is extremely limited as a player. He can pound the ball straight ahead, but his lack of straight line speed and change of direction leaves the running game very one dimensional.

This is why the thinness of New England’s receiving corps really hurts them in way it doesn't to Carolina. The Panthers can handle an unreliable passing game thanks to the running prowess of Newton and Jonathan Stewart, but all season New England used their receiving corps as a substitute for the running game. Their quick passes allowed them to move the ball in small chunks and keep the clock running, something they will now need to rely more on the running game to provide. It isn’t a coincidence that they couldn’t hold a fourteen point fourth quarter lead against the Broncos last week. Without running backs they can trust to move the ball the Patriots became dependent solely on their passing game, and without the receivers to win off the line of scrimmage they will now be forced to shift their focus back to their shaky running attack.

Offensive Line: Seattle Seahawks

There were a lot of possible choices for this one. The top of the league is filled with teams struggling across the front, largely because the entire league is filled with teams struggling across the front. Offensive line talent is in an extremely dark place, and I could easily have selected Denver, Minnesota, or New England as well.

But I decided to go with Seattle, a team that has slowly lost pieces from what was the weakest part of their roster when they won the Super Bowl two years ago. They lost Breno Giacomini and James Carpenter to free agency, and they traded away Max Unger to get Jimmy Graham. They are now starting two converted defenders on the right side of their line, and it definitely shows.

The flaws on the line are obvious when watching them play, but they don’t seem to show up in the numbers. Despite their problems on the line, Seattle’s offense ranks second in rushing DVOA and seventh throwing the ball, good for fourth total. And like Carolina, the explanation comes down to their quarterback. Anyone who still has doubts about whether or not Russell Wilson is a top quarterback in the league needs to shut up and watch them play. He tears defenses apart on a weekly basis, whether operating in the pocket, scrambling out to the side, or keeping the ball on a designed run. He is Seattle’s offense, and his elusiveness and playmaking ability neutralize the shabby line in front of him.

Pass Rush: Arizona Cardinals

This has been a problem in Arizona for years now, and just because they’ve made some positive strides doesn’t mean things are suddenly great. The recent success of Dwight Freeney is a great story, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a 35 year old pass rusher who hasn’t eclipsed five sacks in a season since 2011. The fact that he is on the Cardinals roster right now, much less playing a major role, is an indictment of the players they have in an edge rushing role.

Pass rushing has evolved over the past couple years, and teams are no longer as dependent on edge players. Arizona is a perfect example of this, especially a couple years ago when they had Daryl Washington in the middle to complement Calais Campbell as an interior rusher. But the edge is still the easiest place to get consistent pressure, and it’s the main reason Arizona is 27^th in the league in sacks this season. Markus Golden and Alex Okafor simply aren’t good enough to win consistently on the edge.

Of course, the lack of a pass rush certainly isn’t hurting Arizona’s defense, ranked fourth overall in DVOA right now. They don’t get after the quarterback, but with the best secondary in the league they often don’t have to. Patrick Peterson has bounced back after a down season in 2014, and Tyrann Mathieu is developing into a weapon every bit as dangerous as he was in college. The strength of their secondary gives them the freedom to be more aggressive with blitzes, and it helps them generate more pressure than the talent on their roster would otherwise be able to. A dominant pass rush is the easiest way to build a strong defense, but Arizona is proving that it is not a necessity.

Defensive Interior: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have been knocked out of the playoffs the past two seasons by the rushing game of New England (see above), and they really haven’t done anything to fix the middle of their defense. They found some brief early season success thanks to rookie Henry Anderson, but with him on injured reserve they’re back to their anonymous defensive line.

The struggles of the defensive front puts even more pressure on Indianapolis’s secondary. The safety combination of Mike Adams and Dwight Lowry has been forced to become even more aggressive to cover the holes in their front seven, which has in turn forced them to play more aggressive with cornerbacks Greg Toler and Vontae Davis. Davis is capable of playing at an All Pro level, but he is one of the more inconsistent cornerbacks in the league.

The weakness of Indianapolis’s front puts a strain on their entire defense, and when Davis isn’t playing at his best they are vulnerable at every level because of it. Their only hope is the pass rush they get from Trent Cole and Robert Mathis, a pair of veterans who are no longer capable of dominating on a play by play basis. Indianapolis’s defense knocked them out of the playoffs the past two years, and even though their offense has been a bigger source of problems so far this season, it will again be their defense that does them in.

Secondary: Pittsburgh Steelers

I already said most of what I needed to above, so I’ll just end with this. The Steelers have occasionally been able to compensate for their back end woes by generating pressure on the quarterback, but their front seven is too inconsistent to protect them from this disaster. This is a major vulnerability, and even though I think they will still make the playoffs, it will hold them back from doing anything once the postseason arrives. Their offense can keep them in games against opponents like Cleveland, but if they ever face a good quarterback throwing to competent receivers, there is simply nothing they can do to protect themselves. Ignore the secondary and the Steelers are probably the best team in the league, but as a whole, they might not be among the top ten.