Coming on Strong

Four weeks ago I posted my midseason review, an opportunity to look back at the previous nine weeks and forward at the eight still to come. We’re halfway through the second half now, and, in possibly the greatest surprise in history, several of the predictions I made have already been proven wrong. Green Bay is not running away with the division like I expected them to. New England has fallen out of the top overall seed in the AFC. And ever since I declared them the favorites to claim a Wild Card spot, the Raiders have won only a single game and are all but eliminated.

Of course, football is a zero sum game, and for every team that’s fallen off there is one that has risen up. Teams that I had written off are playing as well as any in the league, and teams once on the edge of playoff contention have now all but clinched a spot. Some of these teams have come out of nowhere, while others we could have seen coming all along. And with only four games left before the playoffs, we have to ask ourselves, what will we see going forward? Will we see the teams that struggled through the first half of the season, or the teams that have dominated over the past few weeks?

Seattle Seahawks

 What I said:

“The Seahawks have an uphill road to climb, but they should still be considered a favorite to grab a playoff spot.”

This is the one that is surprising no one, mostly because few people realized how mediocre Seattle was over the first half of the season. Everyone expected the Seahawks to get back on track, and their recent explosion has half aware fans nodding their heads in self congratulatory celebration. But the recent string of dominant victories says far more about the changes Seattle has made than the team they were early in the season, as they’ve transformed themselves from a fringe playoff team to a legitimate Super Bowl contender in a matter of weeks.

In retrospect it seems obvious that Seattle’s coaching staff would be able to turn this team around. They struggled early due to a few glaring flaws, flaws that were easily corrected over their bye week. The switch away from (and eventual release of) Cary Williams has covered some of the holes in their secondary. After some early inconsistencies, Thomas Rawls has settled more than comfortably into the role as starting running back, filling the hole left by Marshawn Lynch without much, if any, dropoff.

These flaws involved individual players, and with Seattle’s depth and development it isn’t a shock that they had replacements available on the bottom end of their roster. Fixing a hole here and there is something that happens all the time over the course of the season, but it is a lot more difficult to fix an entire failing unit, like Seattle’s struggling offensive line. In this case the problem wasn’t any single player as much as it was all five, and there is no substitution that could solve this. Seattle’s line is still not very good, but they’ve had less negative impact over the past couple weeks than earlier in the season. The changes here are entirely schematic, minimizing the damage done by the line by minimizing their responsibilities in the offense.

Early in the season Seattle’s passing game was built around collecting yards in big chunks, relying on Russell Wilson’s cannon of an arm to stretch the field with Doug Baldwin and Jevon Kearse. Since their bye week however, they’ve changed the way they throw the ball. They are relying on a lot more quick passes and rollouts, rubbing defenders off their tight coverage immediately off the snap and trusting their receivers to make plays after the catch. The straight line speed of Kearse has mostly disappeared from the offense, replaced by the tight area quickness of Tyler Lockett. They are asking Wilson to get the ball out of his hands quicker, and they are trusting their line to do less in protection.

These adjustments have worked remarkably well over the past couple weeks, leading to a shootout win over Pittsburgh and an absolute demolishing of Minnesota. This success has gotten the Seahawks in the conversation as a Super Bowl contender, and with an easy schedule ahead they should be able to coast into the playoffs.

But in order to go any farther than that, they will need to keep up this level of play, a prospect that will become more challenging as teams adjust to their new scheme. Jimmy Graham is done for the rest of the season, robbing them of a crucial piece in their quick passing attack. And as teams begin to play their receivers tighter, Wilson will have no choice but to hold the ball longer. He is still extremely dangerous scrambling when the play breaks down, and there will still be opportunities available when he extends a play. The offense going forward for Seattle will become a hybrid of what they had early in the season and what they are using now. Keeping up this level of play might not be possible, but they don’t have to do so in order to make a deep postseason run.

Houston Texans

What I said:

“Fortunately, we are into the second half of the season, and in eight short weeks the city of Houston will once again be free from having to watch this team. Because even though they are technically still in contention for the division, nothing short of a Herculean effort from their two stars will earn them extra games this year.”

The lessons you learn when making predictions. As it turns out, saying that something would require a Herculean effort JJ Watt is no reason to dismiss the possibility of that happening. Over the past four weeks Houston has leapt from out of the picture into playoff contention, now tied for the division lead and one game out of the Wild Card. They’ve done this on the back of the best player in football, who in all rights should run away with Defensive Player of the Year once again. He leads the league in sacks, and he performs even better when you look into the more advanced stats, with more quarterback hits over his past five games than any other player has the entire season.

Strangely enough, the other top player I mentioned has had less to do with their recent success. DeAndre Hopkins has gone quiet after a torrid start to the season, with only 20 catches for 299 yards over his past four games. That is still extremely impressive, but it is nothing compared to his first eight games, in which he put up 66 receptions and 870 yards. And it isn’t the case of other receivers stepping up either, as all other players on their roster—receivers, tight ends, and running backs—put together a total of two games in which one of them eclipsed 75 yards receiving.

Perhaps it’s the running game then responsible for their recent success. But no, the Texans have averaged below four yards per carry over this stretch. Maybe the credit goes to Brian Hoyer, who has settled into a stable role after the release of Ryan Mallett. Except that he has as many interceptions since the midway point of the season as he had before it, and only once during this four game stretch has his yards per attempt cracked seven.

Things have been going pretty well in Houston lately, but when you dig into the numbers it becomes very clear that this is the same miserable offense as always. They can’t run the ball, they can’t distribute the ball, they can’t really do anything but chuck it up to Hopkins. And so, to find the source of their improvement, we have to look squarely at the defensive side of the ball.

The easy explanation is Watt, and while he’s certainly stepped up his performance recently, their turnaround has more to do with the young players that surround him. Jadeveon Clowney is banged up once again, and at this point we have to wonder if he will ever be what he once was physically, but he still gets on the field enough to show flashes of his potential. And their first two picks from this past year’s draft are playing major roles on this team, with Benardrick McKinney clogging up the middle of the field and Kevin Johnson tracking receivers on the outside.

Even considering this, however, it is still hard to make sense of what Houston’s done to get back into the playoff conversation. And as worried as I am about putting my foot in my mouth again, I have to say that lady luck deserves her share of the credit as well. Houston’s turnaround on defense is too massive for simple talent to explain, and we saw the first cracks in their façade appear against Buffalo last weekend. Sammy Watkins torched them in the first half to give the Bills a wide lead, which they clung onto even after Houston tightened up defensively in the second half. Over the previous games Houston had the luxury of an early lead, and when they went down their offense was exposed as a unit that isn’t capable of playing from behind. A few unlucky swings, a couple bounces don’t go their way, and they simply can’t do anything to recover.

The Texans are still not a very good football team, but that doesn’t mean they’re doomed to miss the playoffs. After all, they still play in the AFC South, and they are tied right now with the battered and vulnerable Colts. The problem is, Indianapolis has already beaten Houston once this year, and they have quite possibly the easiest schedule remaining in the league. Both teams still have to play Jacksonville and Tennessee as well as a game against each other, but the Colts have the luxury of playing the Dolphins, whereas the Texans have to play the Patriots. There is no margin of error for Houston right now, and that is absolutely terrifying for a team as flawed as this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What I said:

“Tampa Bay has plenty to be hopeful for. Just not this season. They’ll scrounge together a few more wins against a gentle schedule, and then they’ll be in a good position to add more talent to their roster next year.”

As you see, I was optimistic about Tampa Bay’s chances over the second half of the season, but even I didn’t expect them to actually get back into the playoff conversation. Part of that has to do with the utter collapse by the Falcons, but most of the credit deserves to go to Tampa Bay. They have collected wins against opponents they are supposed to beat, and in doing so they have turned around their season. They now sit a game behind Seattle for the final Wild Card spot, and if they can win out, they have a chance to sneak into the playoffs.

Their next three games are very winnable, but the final week against Carolina will be a major hurdle. Theoretically Carolina could be resting their starters, but that is assuming that they have both clinched home field advantage and lost any chance of an undefeated season. This is possible, if they were to lose one of their next three games and Arizona loses to either Philadelphia or Green Bay. But in all likelihood this is a hill too tall for Tampa Bay to climb, and they will have to settle for ending their season on a high note.

Their recent turnaround can be attributed to the development of their offense. This was something pretty much everyone could have seen coming at the beginning of the season, from a talented but inexperienced group that would coalesce as they gained experience. Their offensive line is still shaky, but rookies Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith have stabilized things as the season has gone along. Mike Evans hasn’t exploded in the way we expected him to, hampered by drops and inconsistency. But he is talented enough to continue to swallow yards in big chunks, and now that Vincent Jackson is healthy again they have the pair of imposing towers on the outside we all expected to see.

The more surprising boost to their offense has come from the sudden resurgence of Doug Martin who, after following a stellar rookie year with two dismal seasons, was given up for dead by many. He is now second in the league in rushing, and he would be running away with Comeback Player of the Year if it wasn’t for the entire Arizona Cardinals roster (seriously, you could justify giving the award to Carson Palmer, Chris Johnson, Patrick Peterson, or Larry Fitzgerald).

These factors have all played a role in Tampa Bay’s offensive success, but they are secondary to the growth we have seen from Jameis Winston. It hasn’t gotten the publicity it probably deserves, both due to the anonymity of playing in Tampa Bay and the success of other rookies. But over the past month Winston has been the best offensive rookie in the league. He’s cut back on the interceptions after throwing seven in his first four games, and he’s showing improvement with each passing week. If the Buccaneers do somehow make it into the postseason, he will likely earn Offensive Rookie of the Year. But even if that doesn’t happen, he is still the brightest of the many shining lights in Tampa Bay’s future.

Kansas City Chiefs

What I said:

“In all likelihood the final Wild Card spot will go to the team that can find an extra gear they haven't shown so far, a gear the Chiefs simply do not have.”

Winners of six straight and the hottest non-Carolina team in the league, Kansas City has proven they do in fact have the extra gear. A 1-5 start looked like it doomed their playoff chances, but they have rallied back in a weak Wild Card field, and with games remaining against the Chargers, Ravens, Browns, and Raiders, they have the easiest path of any of the teams competing in the AFC.

The turnaround in Kansas City has happened on both sides of the ball. When Jamaal Charles went down, it was assumed their offense was as good as dead, and at first it looked like this was the case. Knile Davis is explosive, but he is too unpolished and unreliable to be a featured back. That left them with Charcandrick West, a second year player with a grand total of five career carries before taking over as the primary running threat. He’s been slowed down in recent weeks, but he did more than anyone could have expected in helping the Chiefs pull off big victories over Denver and Detroit.

Kansas City’s success has always been reliant on their running game, and even though Alex Smith has been playing well lately, they still need a reliable running attack to find any consistent success. Smith remains a low ceiling quarterback, and while this has hurt his teams in the postseason, his stability has proven to be a formula for consistent regular season success. He hasn’t thrown an interception during their six game winning streak, and he hasn’t eclipsed 260 yards passing in any game during that time. The Chiefs have won by getting off to early leads and controlling the game as the clock runs down, a formula they are much more capable of pulling off than the Texans.

This is an effective strategy, but it requires just as much from the defense as it does from the offense. And this is where Kansas City has really taken off. Their defense is playing as well as any in football over the past six weeks, shutting down opposing offenses and taking the pressure off of Smith and their running game.

This is the part that shouldn’t be particularly surprising, considering we’ve seen this from Kansas City before. Just two years ago they opened the season with nine straight wins on the strength of an elite defense, and they’ve rediscovered this dominance as this season has gone along. But we’ve also seen them fall off from this level of play, as they followed those nine wins with losses in six in their next eight, including a first round postseason exit. I’m not saying that this will happen again, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on going forward. Kansas City should make the playoffs, but I don’t think there’s any reason to consider them one of the top teams in the league, despite how well they’ve been playing lately.