We are now nine weeks through the season, meaning every team
in the NFL has played at least half their games. This is as good a time as any
to check into these teams to see how they’re faring, how they’ve lived up to
expectations or fallen short so far. It’s also a chance to fix up some of the
predictions I made before the season (this may surprise you, but I’m not
batting 1.000) and to make a whole host of new predictions that will
fall apart over the next eight weeks.
I’ll be using the same method this year as I have during the
past two, sorting each of the teams into tiers based on my thoughts on the
likelihood of them making the postseason. Today I’m starting with the bottom
half of the league, the teams who will most likely be watching from their
couches with the rest of us when the playoffs start. I’ve split them up into
three groups, first the teams who still have a sliver of hope, followed by
those who might as well just give up, and finally the teams that I really don’t
know how to list.
The order within each tier doesn’t mean that much, though if
you want to take issue with that sort of minutia, I am always happy to argue
with people on the internet.
Long Shots
Miami Dolphins (3-5)
That was fun for a little while, wasn’t it? After a brutal
start to the season, the Dolphins finally cleared out Joe Philbin and replaced
him with interim coach Dan Campbell. They responded by winning their next two
games in decisive fashion, inspiring talk of a turnaround by a team that many
(including me) expected to make the playoffs this year.
Two weeks later, they look like nothing has changed. It
turns out that results against the Titans and the Texans aren’t really
representative of what will happen to a team against actual NFL competition.
Two straight losses have knocked the Dolphins back into the dregs of the AFC,
and they’re schedule gets only marginally easier from here, depending on your
opinion of their next two opponents Philadelphia and Dallas. There’s still some
talent here, and if they can get Lamar Miller going again, they might be able
to take advantage of a wide open AFC playoff field. Of course, there’s just as
good a chance that they lose their next eight games and end up picking first
overall.
Kansas City Chiefs
(3-5)
The Kansas City Chiefs are still technically alive in the
playoff hunt, which says far more about the AFC Wild Card race than it does
about the Chiefs. Once Jamaal Charles went down for the season, most people
assumed that this team would quickly fold as well. But they’ve hung in there,
winning their past two games by virtue of facing Landry Jones and the Detroit
Lions.
The schedule actually doesn’t get much tougher as, aside
from the game this coming week in Denver, they don't face a single team that currently has a winning record. But there are no easy
wins out there either, not for a team still struggling to find an identity in
the wake of losing their star player. Their defense is both solid and flawed,
as it has been for the past two years. Alex Smith is as nauseatingly conservative
as ever, and even though their offensive line has been improving, it is still a
constant threat to their offense. If everyone in the AFC continues to fall to
pieces, Kansas City might be able to make a run. But in all likelihood the final Wild Card spot will go to the team that can find an extra gear they haven't shown so far, a gear the Chiefs simply do not have.
Philadelphia Eagles
(4-4)
Before the season there was a pretty solid understanding
about the Eagles. Their offseason rebuild would either be a wild success or a
total disaster, but however it turned out, it would certainly be entertaining.
The one thing no one saw coming was what ended up happening, the dull
mediocrity of a team that has taken a small but significant step back. Sam Bradford
is a more boring version of Nick Foles, DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews lack
the explosiveness of LeSean McCoy, and Nelson Agholor hasn’t been close to the
Jeremy Maclin replacement they expected.
There was some optimism surrounding the offense coming into the season, but most people understood
that it was going to take a step back. The hope was that it would be competent
enough to let their defense carry them to the next level. The struggles on
offense have gotten most of the attention, but the real disappointment on this
team has been their defense. The front seven is as good as everyone expected,
but the secondary (Byron Maxwell in particular) has let them down. All in all,
this is a team that perfectly reflects their record, and I wouldn’t be
surprised if they match it over the second half of the year.
Baltimore Ravens
(2-6)
One of the most popular Super Bowl picks coming into the
season, the Ravens have been victims of terrible luck so far. Their six losses
have come by a combined 30 points, and if even a couple of them had gone their way
they’d be in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. But instead they’re looking
up at seven teams fighting for the final two spots, and they are as close as
can get to sliding down into the next tier.
Only the expectations of the preseason and their misfortune
are enough to convince me that there is still a sliver of hope. The Ravens have
been unlucky, but they’ve also been pretty bad, their secondary showing very
little improvement as it’s gotten healthy and their offense stuck somewhere
between first gear and park. The talent and the expectations are still there
for the most part, and the field is open enough that they could make a run. But
to turn it around at this point they would almost need to win out, leaving an
incredibly slim margin of error for a team that might not be very good.
Trash Heap
San Diego Chargers
(2-7)
Injuries have gotten a lot of attention in San Diego, and it
is absolutely deserved. No other team in the league has come close to the
volume of injuries the Chargers have suffered, and only the Cowboys and the Steelers
can really match the significance. Over the first few weeks it seemed like the
Chargers were losing an offensive lineman with each series, then they were
struggling to field a stable defense, and now they can’t find more than three
healthy wide receivers. Keenan Allen was one of the most fun parts of the early
season, but, since he’s a Charger, we’ll have to wait for next year to watch him
again.
Chargers fans have plenty to be upset about when it comes to
health, but let’s not let these injuries hide the fact that San Diego isn’t a particularly good football team. They are one of three teams with a
winning percentage below .250, and both their victories have come against the
other two. They’ve maintained an illusion of competence by keeping things close
early in the season against quality opponents like Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and
Minnesota, but even if the Chargers were at full strength, their lack of a
running game and holes across their defensive unit would keep them from
competing with the top teams in the AFC.
Cleveland Browns
(2-7)
The Browns are actually kind of fun while they’re losing
this year, which at least makes an improvement over past seasons. Josh McCown
has been silently not terrible, though he’s still not as good as the numbers
he’s putting up. And Johnny Manziel has actually looked halfway decent when he’s
been on the field, impressing both with his abilities to make plays on the move
and to deliver from the pocket (though if you want to see an argument for this not being the case, I highly recommend you read this).
Of course, this is still a 2-7 football team, and there are
plenty of reasons why. Despite two talented runners in the backfield, Cleveland
hasn’t found the consistency on offense to get their running game moving. They
can’t stop the run on defense either, despite spending the twelfth overall pick
on 340 pound Danny Shelton. Pleasant surprises like Mitchell Schwartz and Gary
Barnidge aren’t enough to make up for the fact that the young talent on this
team is still an utter mess, and that there is very little reason to be hopeful
for the future.
Washington Redskins
(3-5)
People seem to be of two minds when it comes to the
Redskins. They either believe that Kirk Cousins is a total bum who doesn’t
belong on the field, or they believe that he is a savior sent to rescue the
team from the destruction wrought by Robert Griffin III. I seem to be among the
small minority who believes that both quarterbacks are terrible, and that it
really doesn’t matter which one this miserable team puts out on the field.
Cousins is a disaster whose occasional success running an
NFL offense is hindered by the small flaw of him being the most turnover prone
quarterback in NFL history. Griffin is a talented athlete who has coasted long
enough on skill alone that a single year of NFL success convinced him he didn’t
need to work to improve himself, a delusion he somehow still maintains. Put
them together beneath a coach who has no idea what he’s doing and an owner who will happily take on the field controversy to distract from issues
off the field, and you get a team that is as irrelevant now as they will be for
the next three years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(3-5)
After an ugly start, Tampa Bay is starting to pull things
together. They’ve won two of their past four, and they’ve been competitive in
each of the losses, a far sight from their opening weekend thrashing at the
hands of the Titans. Jameis Winston struggled mightily early on, and while he’s
still not playing at a particularly high level, he’s showing signs of
improvement with each and every week. Doug Martin looks like the player he was
his rookie season, and even though Mike Evans had some ugly drops on Sunday
(and also a couple more ugly drops, plus another ugly drop just in case you
didn’t see the first bunch), he’s made plenty of spectacular plays as well.
The point of all that circuitous optimism? Tampa Bay has
plenty to be hopeful for. Just not this season. They’ll scrounge together a few
more wins against a gentle schedule, and then they’ll be in a good position to
add more talent to their roster next year. This team is trending up, though not
by enough to get the casual fan excited. Even so, they’ve got more to look
forward to than a certain division rival.
New Orleans Saints
(4-5)
I’m not sure there’s a team in the league right now more
depressing than the Saints. There are definitely worse teams out there, and
there are definitely more boring teams out there, but no one quite has New
Orleans’s combination of dull mediocrity and hopelessness for the future. This
team has spent the past two years doing everything within their power to try to
make one final run with Drew Brees under center, and every move they’ve made
has backfired.
Their defense has shown no signs of the unit that was
quietly very good in 2013, and their offense has become stunningly bland with
the departures of Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham. They’ve put up points in
volume over the past two weeks, but it has done very little to actually help
their cause, as their defense just finds new ways to be inept each week.
Theoretically they could make a run if their offense continues to click, but in
the highly competitive NFC I think it’s safe to say this team will fade into
indifference.
San Francisco 49ers
(3-6)
Nope, not buying the Blaine Gabbert train. They beat the
Falcons with their new quarterback, but that says far more about the Falcons
than the 49ers. It’s incredible that I’m saying this about the team that had
the most complete roster in the league two years ago, but there simply isn’t
much left in the cupboards in San Francisco. The retirements that hit their
defense are the obvious story, but the bigger problem has actually been on
their offensive line. Losing Mike Iupati to free agency hurt, and the
retirement of Anthony Davis left them perilously thin at a position that was once
their greatest strength.
I don’t think that benching Colin Kaepernick was the correct
decision, and I think it will ultimately hurt their team down the stretch. But
I also think it’s clear by now that, whatever Kaepernick could have become, he
is simply not an NFL level quarterback right now. He’s always relied mainly on
arm strength and athleticism, and his mechanics have regressed to remove any
accuracy he once had. The problems on the offensive line and in the receiving
corps have helped highlight his shortcomings, but at this point San Francisco
has to acknowledge the heart of the problem and move on from Kaepernick when
the offseason arrives.
Chicago Bears (3-5)
The Bears aren’t a very good team, but they’re better than
the public perception of them. For some reason people seem to have gotten it in
their heads that the Bears are one of the worst teams in the league, the sort
of team that is an embarrassment whenever they step on the field. This is far
from the case. Chicago is perfectly competent in several areas of the game,
held back only by their lack of a truly elite element.
The offense has never really rebounded from the high
expectations coming into last season, but they have the potential to pull
things together down the stretch. Alshon Jeffery is finally healthy, and he’s
starting to dominate physically like he did two years ago. Matt Forte is
dealing with some injury issues, but if he comes back close to full strength,
this can be a dangerous offense again. The NFC is too competitive for them to
get into the playoff hunt, but if their offense picks it up and their defense
continues its quiet competence, they can make a run at a .500 record.
Detroit Lions (1-7)
I didn’t have high expectations for Detroit, but I never
imagined it would get this bad. Only the Dolphins fell apart faster than the
Lions this year, and I can’t imagine they have the same sort of turnaround in
them. Even if they did, it would be too little too late for a team that looks
like they’ve given up on the season.
As it turns out, letting two of your three best defensive
players leave in free agency can have some negative consequences, as can losing
the other top player to injury. Without DeAndre Levy, Ndamukong Suh, and Nick
Fairley, this defense has shown no signs of the aggressive playmaking that
earned them a playoff spot last year. More troubling, the return of a healthy
Calvin Johnson has not given their offense the boost it expected, which has
spiraled into the mess they find themselves in now.
The Lions have the worst record in the league, but that’s
not the only reason I see them as having the inside track for the first overall
pick. Most people expect the top selection to go to the worst team, but more
often than not it goes to a team that had decent expectations coming into the
season, a team that struggles early and gives up down the stretch. It happened
with the Colts in 2011, the Chiefs in 2012, and the Texans in 2013. And right
now, the Lions have given up in much the same way, giving them an edge over bad
but still trying teams like Tennessee or Cleveland.
I Have No Damn Clue
Dallas Cowboys (2-6)
The NFC East is a mess. Dallas is in last place among the
four teams, but they are also clearly the best of them, held back only by the
injuries that have effectively ended their season. They lost one of last year’s
big three to free agency, but they would have been able to weather the loss of
DeMarco Murray, and possibly even the early season injury of Dez Bryant, had it
not been for the ensuing injury to Tony Romo. They’ve lost six straight now,
leaving them with the second worst record in the NFC.
The first half of the season was a disaster, but they still
have hope to fix things over the second half. Bryant is back and looking close
to full strength, and there are hopes that they’ll get Romo back within the
next couple weeks. Their current record puts them in a bad situation, and it
doesn’t help that they’ve already played both their games against the Giants
and the Eagles, but the teams ahead of them aren’t going to be running away
with the division. The injuries have robbed the Cowboys of any margin of error,
but they have enough of an edge in talent over the other teams that they have a
chance to make up the deficit.
Pittsburgh Steelers
(5-4)
The Jets have essentially clinched the first Wild Card spot
by default, and that leaves the next three teams fighting for the final slot.
Of the teams, there is no doubt that the Steelers are the best. Even without
Le’Veon Bell they have one of the most potent collections of offensive talent
in the league, with Martavis Bryant and DeAngelo Williams stepping up to
support the best receiver in the league Antonio Brown. Their defense has been
playing surprisingly well, and if they can get Roethlisberger healthy down the
stretch, this team can compete with any in the league.
But of course, that’s the problem. Roethlisberger already
missed four games with a knee injury, and he was clearly playing at below one
hundred percent over the past two games prior to going down against the Raiders
with a foot sprain. He will miss next week’s contest against the Browns, but
the bye the following week might be able to limit his absence to just that one game. But
even if he does make it back, there’s no way to know what Roethlisberger we’ll see,
whether he can perform at a high enough level to fight into the final playoff
spot.
Buffalo Bills (4-4)
It is often said that a team takes on the personality of
their head coach, and never have we had better evidence of that than this
year’s Bills. It is truly remarkable how quickly Rex Ryan managed to turn his
new team into an exact duplicate of his old. The Bills are sloppy,
undisciplined, and wildly erratic, but they have enough talent on the defensive
side of the ball that, when paired with an expert in defensive scheme like
Ryan, makes them entertaining and occasionally successful.
In a normal year that’s all they would be, but the AFC has
been set up perfectly for them to make a run at the playoffs this year. And at
times they’ve actually looked like a team deserving of that spot, only to come
out and lay an egg the following week. They need to find a way to harness some
consistency going forward, and to do that they will need more from their
offense. Tyrod Taylor has been a pleasant surprise in that he’s not an utter
disaster, but they are going to need more performances like they got last week
from LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins. So far their role players have done their
part, and to make a run down the stretch, the stars in Buffalo have to show up.
Oakland Raiders (4-4)
This still seems hard to believe, but right now if I had to
bet on a team to claim the final AFC playoff spot, I’d probably put my money on
the Raiders. They are a more complete team than the Bills, a healthier team
than the Steelers, and their record puts them right in the middle of the race.
The loss in Pittsburgh last week was a serious blow to their chances, but with
a schedule that has the Chiefs twice, the Chargers, the Titans, and the Lions,
there are plenty more opportunities for wins.
If any of you still believe Oakland is a fluke, you should
get over it right now. There will undoubtedly be bumps along the road, but this
is a quality team from top to bottom. Most of the attention has gone to Derek
Carr, Amari Cooper, and Khalil Mack, but there is a lot more to this team than
just the stars. Their offensive line has fallen perfectly together, and they
are getting major contributions from veterans like Charles Woodson and Michael
Crabtree. They aren’t to the point where they will be dangerous once the
postseason arrives, but they can definitely push for their first playoff berth
since 2002.
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