Earlier this week I brought you
the first half of my midseason preview, covering the teams who probably won’t
end up making the playoffs. Today I’m covering the other half of the league,
the teams who will be competing down the stretch for a postseason berth. Again
I’ve separated them into tiers. The first is made up of the teams who have
essentially already clinched a spot, the teams who would have to suffer
historic collapses in order to be left out in January. The final tier is made
up of the teams who will be fighting for the last few spots. And in between I
have a very special tier for a very special group of teams who, through some
breaks that definitely don’t show a flaw in the entire system, still have a
chance of making the postseason.
Again, these rankings are tier by
tier. I suppose you could read into the order of the teams within each tier,
but you probably shouldn’t spend more than fifteen seconds thinking about it. I
certainly didn’t.
Locks
New England Patriots (8-0)
The Patriots have been the best
team in the league so far this year, as their record suggests. Tom Brady has
been phenomenal and would probably get my MVP vote if the season ended today
and I had an MVP vote. He’s reached a new level of efficiency distributing the
ball to a corps of weapons constructed to perfectly fit his skills. Even the
issues on the offensive line haven’t slowed them down, as Brady continues to
get the ball out too quick for any pass rush to have an effect.
The Patriots are fantastic, but
let’s stop getting ahead of ourselves. They are not as good as the team in 2007
was. They are not going to go undefeated. Their defense is built on a flimsy
foundation of a pass rush which, while very good, isn’t dominant or versatile
enough to carry this mediocre secondary. Someone will exploit it sooner or
later, and they’ll drop a game or two down the stretch. But even if they lose a
couple, they are still the most dangerous team in the league, and right now
they are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-0)
I’ve been skeptical for a while
on the Bengals, and even though I’m not willing to admit that they’re as good
as their record suggests, I am going to surrender to the math and say that they
are going to win the AFC North. A three and a half game lead with the
tiebreaker in hand is as good as it gets halfway through the year, and even if
my concerns about their defense catch up to them or the wax finally melts on
Andy Dalton’s wings, their last two victories have given them enough cushion
that they can coast into the playoffs.
They are still not up to the
level of the Patriots, and with the Broncos picking it up on offense, they find
themselves in a desperate race for the number two seed. Right now the Bengals
are firing on all cylinders, and they will need to continue to do so down the
stretch if they have any hope of finally taking the next step. At the level
they’re playing right now, they can absolutely compete for a championship. They
just have to hope that things continue to go their way.
Carolina Panthers (8-0)
The other undefeated team in the
league, it’s still a little perplexing how Carolina has performed well so far.
Cam Newton is fantastic, but he isn’t good enough to carry an offense on his
own, and even the improvement of their line hasn’t been enough to explain their
success on offense this season. They are getting contributions from players we
never saw coming, solid production from Ted Ginn and superstar numbers from
Greg Olsen.
The schedule has certainly
helped, but it’s not going to get any harder from here, and Carolina should
have no trouble coasting into the playoffs. Once they get there, things may be
different, as they are forced to fight through at least three straight
opponents with talent that surpasses theirs. But I’ve counted the Panthers out
far too frequently, and this may be the sort of roster that can continue to
surprise people, built around depth that sustains them when more shallow teams
hit bumps along the road.
Denver Broncos (7-1)
The Broncos slipped up last week
against the Colts, but we shouldn’t allow ourselves to forget that their
victory the week before against the Packers was possibly the most impressive
game any team has played this year. Their defense has been the best in the
league from the first snap of the ball, but what they did to hold Aaron Rodgers
to 77 passing yards was a historically great performance. The talent on this
unit is awe inspiring, built from every possible source you can imagine. A high
drafted superstar in Von Miller, an undrafted steal in Chris Harris, high
priced veteran free agents like Aqib Talib and DeMarcus Ware, and unheralded
role players like Brandon Marshall and Derek Wolfe. There are no holes in this
defense, and they will continue to be an all time great unit as the season goes
along.
The concerns over the first six
games were entirely on the offensive side of the ball. After injuries limited
him down the stretch last year, Peyton Manning came back at the start of 2015
looking like he didn’t belong in the NFL. There was no zip to his passes, and
it led to him forcing the ball into windows he simply couldn’t hit. He was bad
enough that many were willing to write the Broncos off despite their historic
defense, until their bye restored the life to Manning’s arm. He still isn’t
close to what he was even two years ago, but he is at least functional
physically, and with his mind and Denver’s defense, that’s enough to make them
Super Bowl contenders again.
Green Bay Packers (6-2)
There is something wrong with the
Packers offense right now, but fortunately they have eight weeks to get it
figured out before it actually matters. Winning the first six isn’t a guarantee
of a playoff spot, but it would require a historic collapse for the Packers to
drop out now, the sort we aren’t going to see from a team with Aaron Rodgers at
quarterback. They may have to fight a little harder, and they probably won’t be
able to earn home field advantage, but they are still the best team in the NFC
North, and they have to be considered favorites to get a first round bye.
Of course, even if they pull
their offense out of its current skid, they aren’t going to be the same team
we’ve grown to fear over the past few years. The loss of Jordy Nelson was
devastating, and there is something wrong physically with Eddie Lacy, either an
injury or a weight issue or some combination of both. In addition to all this,
their offensive line has regressed after playing above their heads last year,
leaving Rodgers to shoulder even more of the offense than usual. He’s still the
best quarterback in the league, and he’s still capable of destroying defenses
in ways no other player in the league can, but without the easy options
available to him on every play, the Packers will have to settle for only
occasional flashes of greatness.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
I just don’t know what to think
anymore. I’ve spent the entire season waiting for the Colts to turn it around,
and last week it looked like it was about to happen. Their defense hasn’t been
good all year, but it’s solid enough that it can ride a good offense to the
playoffs. The problem has been offense, and they finally got it going on Sunday
against Denver, the best defense in the league. Andrew Luck looked good, their
offensive line held up, and their receivers lived up to expectations for the
first time all year.
And then on Tuesday the news
broke that Luck had suffered a lacerated kidney, an injury that will keep him
out anywhere between two and six weeks. Half of their wins this season have
come with Matt Hasselbeck under center, but that doesn’t change how much the
loss of Luck hurts them. They’ll still probably win the division, thanks to the
fact that no other AFC South team can beat them, but at this point I think we
should probably get over any notions that this team will put it together enough
to compete when the playoffs come around.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
Here’s something you may not
realize: Jacksonville’s offense is really good. More importantly, they’re only
going to get better. The young talent at the skill positions on this team is
staggering, headlined by Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns at wide receiver and
bolstered by rookie running back TJ Yeldon, who has shrugged off draft night
criticisms to prove that he was absolutely worth a second round pick. Of
course, skill position talent only means so much if there isn’t a quarterback
to get them the ball, and it’s starting to look like Bortles might be that guy.
He still has plenty of rough patches, but he is significantly improved on last
year and is in an excellent position to continue to get better with the loads
of talent that surround him.
The Jaguars are still a two win
team, and this is normally where I’d talk about how even their defense has some
hope to the future, getting Dante Fowler back healthy next year as essentially
an extra first round pick. But next year is still next year, and with the mess
in the AFC South, the Jaguars still have hope for this year. They have been the
second best team in the division through the first eight games, and with Andrew
Luck down for the foreseeable future, they have the best shot of leaping the
Colts to claim the division title. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but
there is definitely enough talent here for a late season surge, earning them
possibly the first of many playoff berths to come.
Houston Texans (3-5)
The Texans have a bye this week,
which is the kindest thing that has been done to the city of Houston since
Oklahoma City decided to give them James Harden for a bag of seeds. There is no
team in the league that is less fun to watch this year than Houston, which is
strange since they have two of the league’s most fun to watch players in JJ
Watt and DeAndre Hopkins.
Both can absolutely dominate a
game, but both play at positions where individual dominance can only go so far.
Even when they’re dominating, it only makes a difference on plays here or
there, and the rest of the time we’re watching the other players on this team
drag them down into the abyss. Fortunately, we are into the second half of the
season, and in eight short weeks the city of Houston will once again be free
from having to watch this team. Because even though they are technically still
in contention for the division, nothing short of a Herculean effort from their
two stars will earn them extra games this year.
Tennessee Titans (2-6)
The Titans are not as bad as
their record indicates. They certainly aren’t bad enough that their coach
needed to be fired, though you could make an argument they were just correcting
the mistake they made hiring Wisenhunt in the first place. Still, over the
first seven weeks they probably should have had two or three victories, after
outplaying both the Colts and the Bills in heartbreaking losses.
The Titans won their first game
under Mike Mularkey, and they’re talented enough that they could grab a few
more wins down the stretch. Under any other circumstances that would matter
very little in the grand scheme of things, but the AFC South is the one
division where a 2-6 team has a chance to turn things around and make the
playoffs. Their defense is already playing at a high enough level to get them
there, and if they can keep Marcus Mariota healthy and effective, a playoff
berth is surprisingly within reach.
Contenders
Arizona Cardinals (6-2)
The Cardinals were one of the
most divisive teams coming into the season, with some pegging them as a bottom
ten team and others as a playoff contender. Yet somehow they have outperformed
even the highest expectations and currently sit atop the NFC West. Their
defense has been strong despite the loss of coordinator Todd Bowles, helped by
a bounceback year from Patrick Peterson. They still have issues getting after
the quarterback, but right now their secondary is the best in the league, and
that’s enough to cover issues on their front line.
The real surprise has been on the
offensive side, where they’ve managed to cobble together a collection of
unwanted veterans into one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. It
seems strange that four years ago Carson Palmer actually announced his
intention to retire, before coming back when the Bengals traded him to Oakland.
He is now having the best season of his career, leading an explosive deep
passing attack bolstered by the resurgence of Chris Johnson behind him. This
offense shouldn’t be working as well as it has, and even though I’m still
skeptical, we’re quickly reaching the point where it’s difficult to dismiss it
as a fluke.
Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
The Vikings have the same record
as the Packers, so I understand if people are upset that I’ve placed them in
two separate tiers. As a Vikings fan myself, I know I’d be a bit disgruntled if
I read someone else do the same. But as an analyst, I can’t deny that that the
Packers are the better team. The Vikings are sitting in a very good position
right now, with a two game lead in the Wild Card race and a tiebreaker
over St Louis, one of the teams chasing them. Their defense is playing as well
as any non-Denver team in the league, and Adrian Peterson looks like his old
self after some early season struggles.
All that said, there are plenty
of reasons to be skeptical about their playoff chances. Realistically they
probably need to win only four of their final eight games to get in, but their
schedule makes even this an optimistic projection. Over the next five weeks
they play Oakland, Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle, and Arizona, five straight
opponents with a winning record after playing only one during the first half of
the season.
It’s an uphill climb, but there
is one way the Vikings might make it work. Their defense has been great so far,
and their running game has been solid, but they’ve been held back by their
passing attack. The emergence of Stefon Diggs has helped pick things up over
the past few weeks, but they are still facing the reality that Teddy
Bridgewater hasn’t taken the step forward we all expected. He hasn’t been as
bad as some people have suggested, but they are going to need him to play a lot
better to win over the next few weeks. He’s been leaving plays on the field all
year, and they’ve survived thanks to the rest of the team, a luxury they will
not have going forward.
Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
Atlanta’s record indicates that
they’ve slowed down after a hot start, but they’ve been the same team from the
first victory to the most recent loss. They’ve dropped three of their past four
after winning their first five, all against very suspect competition, and there
is a wave of panic starting among Falcons fans, worried that their early season success was just a flash in the pan.
It’s hard not to see where
they’re coming from. Looking back, this recent downturn is something we should
have seen coming. Atlanta won their first five, but aside from a blowout win
against Houston they were all very competitive games, and it only took a minor
increase in the difficulty of their schedule and some reversal of luck for
things to turn against them. Davonta Freeman was a good story at the beginning
of the year, but he had only 12 yards in last week’s game, and he hasn’t had a
rushing touchdown in three weeks. There are flaws with this team that their
early season success covered up, and there are strengths that have been lost in
their more recent struggles. They’ll find balance going forward, but with a
more difficult schedule down the stretch, they are going to have a difficult
time staying at the head of the Wild Card race.
Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
With a .500 record coming out of
their bye, Seattle is both still in the mix for the playoffs and far back from
where they expected to be. After two straight Super Bowl appearances, the
Seahawks were the favorites in the NFC coming into the season, yet if the playoffs
started today they would be on the outside looking in. There are small problems
all over their roster, but the biggest issue is their offensive line, among the
worst in the league. They aren’t able to open holes in the running game, and
Russell Wilson is having to scramble for his life even more the normal this
season.
The good news for Seahawks fans
is that this team appears to be slowly pulling things together. Their line is inexperienced, but with every game they play they seem
to get a little better. And their defense is still one of the top units in the
league, if they can eliminate some of the mental lapses that plagued them early in
the season. The Seahawks have an uphill road to climb, but they should still be
considered a favorite to grab a playoff spot.
New York Jets (5-4)
In Part One of my preview I said
that the Jets had earned a playoff berth almost by default, and even after
their Thursday night loss to the Bills, I’m not going to back down. This is a
flawed team, but so are the teams that are chasing them, and with an easy
schedule ahead the Jets should be able to close out the season strong and earn
their way into the postseason.
The results so far may be a small
surprise, but nothing about this Jets team looks any different than we
expected. Their offense is built around a deep and solid core that supports a
shaky quarterback situation, and their defense destroys opposing offensive
lines with reckless abandon. Nothing about that is shocking, and there is no
reason we should expect that to change down the stretch. The Jets aren’t going
to make some final push to challenge New England for the division, and they’re
not going to fall back to be leapfrogged by the Dolphins or the Bills. They are
going to finish with nine or ten wins, and they have a decent chance of a
favorable first round matchup against whoever rolls on top of the AFC South.
New York Giants (5-4)
No team has gotten luckier this
year than the Giants. At the end of last season they were very clearly the
third best team in their division, yet halfway through 2015—without really
doing anything to improve themselves—they are the clear favorites to emerge as
champions of the NFC East. It started in the offseason when Chip Kelly burned
down the Eagles for insurance money, then continued into the regular season
when Tony Romo and Dez Bryant went down for the Cowboys. This is the exact sort
of luck that propels a team into a surprising playoff berth, and we all know
what the Giants can do with that.
They do deserve a little credit
for playing slightly above expectations. Eli Manning looks really good this
year, and if they can get Victor Cruz back to his old self, their offense can become one of the
more dangerous units in the league. They’ve found pieces to bolster their
defensive line, and somehow they’re holding it together on the back end. A deep
playoff run looks like it should be out of reach for them, but I’m not going to
count this team out anytime soon.
St Louis Rams (4-4)
I feel like being honest here, so
I’ll just come out and say it. The only reason the Rams are in this category is
because I wanted sixteen teams in each of my previews. After last weekend’s
loss to Minnesota, the road is very much uphill for the Rams, a team that
pulled off a couple of interesting early season wins but remains the flawed and
limited group that wins between six and eight games every single year.
Still, there is more to like
about this version of the Rams than past incarnations. Their defensive line is
still a nightmare, and the other pieces of their defense are starting to come
together as well, but where they’ve really stepped forward is on offense. It
wouldn’t be unfair to say that the entire unit is built around two players
doing spectacular things, but when those two players are Tavon Austin and Todd
Gurley, that’s enough to make a functional offense. Gurley is already one of
the best running backs in the league, and now that Brian Schottenheimer is not
standing in his way, Austin has proven to be the versatile weapon we all
expected. These two players are their only options on offense, and every
defense is geared up specifically to go after the two of them, yet it still
isn’t enough to slow them down. The Vikings managed to limit Gurley thanks to
Linval Joseph giving possibly the best performance by a defensive tackle I
have ever seen, but they were still vulnerable to Austin’s speed and skill on
the outside. It’s not enough to get St Louis to the playoffs, but it’s
something to build on, hopefully once they wise up and clear out their coaching
staff.
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