And if you’re
curious, here are links to my breakdowns for the prospects available in this
draft.
Cornerback
Wide Receiver and Tight EndRuning Back
Linebacker and Safety
Defensive Interior
Offensive Line
Edge
1.
Cleveland
Browns – Sam Darnold, QB, USC
This
is the first year in a while with real uncertainty about
who will be the first player selected. I’m confident saying that the Browns are
going to take a quarterback, but I think there’s a reasonable chance that they
select Josh Allen, and I’ve even been hearing rumors that they like Baker
Mayfield. (They haven’t been linked to either of my top two quarterbacks,
because they're the Browns). But in the end I think they will stick with the
quarterback that's been the favorite throughout the process.
2.
New
York Giants – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
If
the Browns do pass on Darnold, it sounds very likely that he will end up as a
Giant. But it also seems like Darnold is the only quarterback the Giants are
interested in, and with him off the board they’ll take their pick of the
non-quarterback options. Trading down is certainly an option too, but all
indications are that they believe they can get a superstar at this position.
Barkley definitely has the physical ability to be that player, even if I have a
lot of skepticism about how his game will translate to the NFL.
3.
New
York Jets – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
The
Jets are taking a quarterback. They gave up an insane three second
round picks to jump up three slots, and there’s no scenario in which they can
justify going after any other position. The smart move would be to take Josh
Rosen, but that seems like the third most likely scenario. They will consider
Allen as well, but the strongest signs point to them being in love with
Mayfield.
4.
Cleveland
Browns – Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State
This
is the first spot where I think we could see a trade, though I would
still bet on the Browns holding their ground. They would love to get Barkley,
but with him gone they’ll double up on talented pass rushers. The combination
of Chubb and last year’s top overall selection Myles Garrett gives them a
strong foundation at the most important position on defense to go along with
their potential star quarterback.
5.
Denver
Broncos – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
If
Denver goes with a quarterback, I think Allen is the way they go. A trade is
definitely possible (the Bills will be very nervous by this point in the
draft), but if they stay where they are I think it comes down to Allen versus
Quenton Nelson. They spent a first round selection on their offensive line a
year ago, and they still need help there, but the pressure on John Elway and
Vance Joseph makes me think they will go for a splash in this year’s draft.
6.
Indianapolis
Colts – Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
This
is a pick the Colts will sprint to the podium to make. Nelson will immediately
elevate their offense in both the run and the pass game, and after losing an
entire season of Andrew Luck protecting him has to be their top priority. If
Nelson isn’t available, they will likely look to the defensive side of the
ball, going after someone like Roquan Smith or Derwin James.
7.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers – Derwin James, S, Florida State
There
are a lot of ways Tampa Bay could go with this pick, and they’re all on the
defensive side of the ball. They could use a cornerback like Denzel Ward, a linebacker
like Smith, or a pass rusher like Harold Landry. But I think their best bet
will be to stay local and grab a player who can play a variety of different
positions, a high upside athlete who could turn into a superstar in a couple
years.
8.
Chicago
Bears – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
The
Bears have built a solid foundation on defense, and now they have the
flexibility to take a flyer on a high risk/reward player. Edmunds is a
sensational athlete who can occupy the space in the middle of this defense,
with the potential to become the next in the line of Butkus-Singletary-Urlacher
to lead the Bears on that side of the ball.
9.
San
Francisco 49ers – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
Things are looking complicated for last year’s first round selection Reuben Foster as he
faces off the field issues that could end his time with the 49ers. If they are
forced to move on from him, that leaves a massive gap at the most important
position on this defense. Smith is a player with many of the same skills as
Foster, a fantastic athlete who can contribute in both pass coverage and as a
blitzer.
10. Oakland Raiders – Mike McGlinchey, OT,
Notre Dame
Oakland’s
offense fell apart a year ago as their offensive line slipped from total
dominance to mere excellence. Derek Carr is a good quarterback, but he
consistently melts down under pressure. The Raiders need to ensure that their
offensive line is solid in front of him, and that means reaching for the most
NFL ready tackle in the draft.
11. Miami Dolphins – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio
State
A
year ago Ward’s teammate Marshon Lattimore went off the board eleventh overall,
and he completely turned around the Saints defense. Ward isn’t the same caliber
of player, but he has the skills to be an immediate starter for a Dolphins
defense that has spent years looking for a solution on the outside. I’m not
entirely sure what the Dolphins are doing right now, and I could see them going
in a lot of different directions with this pick. But Ward seems like the best
combination of talent and need available.
12. Buffalo Bills – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
Obviously
the Bills aren’t just going to sit and wait for a quarterback to drop to them.
They are going to be on the phone with every team drafting ahead of them, and I
expect they will find someone willing to deal. I don’t think Rosen will be
their top choice, but they may have to settle for him if three go in the top
five as I expect. I’m guessing they would most likely rather have Allen, and
they will be holding their breath to see if Denver will let him slide.
13. Washington Redskins – Vita Vea, DT,
Washington
This
is a pick based on what I’ve read from writers I trust, and it’s not one I
really understand. The Redskins spent a first round pick on the defensive
interior a year ago, and even though Vea is a very different player from
Jonathan Allen this doesn’t seem like the best use of their resources. But Vea
is a talented athlete, and if it works out this pairing could spend the next
five years wrecking the interiors of opposing offensive lines.
14. Green Bay Packers – Marcus Davenport, EDGE,
UTSA
Green
Bay could use help at almost every position, and I’m not sure if there is a
non-QB player who would surprise me here. Either Josh Jackson or Minkah
Fitzpatrick would fit well in their secondary, while Vea would be useful up
front if the Redskins pass on him. But I’ll give them one of the more
intriguing players in the draft, a raw athlete who dominated against mediocre
competition. It may take some time for Davenport to adjust to the NFL, but he has
the talent to be the heir apparent to Clay Matthews as he continues to trend
downward.
15. Arizona Cardinals – Lamar Jackson, QB,
Louisville
Jackson
is going to go higher than many people think. He’s the sort of player that a
couple front offices will absolutely fall in love with, and even if 28 teams
aren’t interested the other four are enough to start a bidding war. The
Cardinals seem like a team that would definitely be intrigued by Jackson’s
ability (as evidenced by former coach Bruce Arian’s comments about him), and
this would be an excellent fit for the most exciting player in the draft.
16. Baltimore Ravens – Calvin Ridley, WR,
Alabama
The
Ravens love players from Alabama, and despite them going aggressively after
every wide receiver available in free agency that remains a glaring hole on
their offense. Ridley will provide them with a down the field threat they had
hoped to get from Breshad Perriman, though it remains to be seen if they have
the quarterback and the offensive line to attack with a vertical passing game.
17. Los Angeles Chargers – Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
Payne is a player who keeps popping up in first round conversations, and I really don't understand why. At times he can get good penetration into the backfield, but he doesn't ever make plays once he's back there. Still, this could be useful for a Chargers team that excels at disrupting off the edge, shoring up their middle and making life easier for Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
18. Seattle Seahawks – Josh Jackson, CB,
Iowa
There
may not be a better fit of talent, scheme, and need in the draft. Seattle’s
defense is entering a bit of a rebuilding phase, with star cornerback Richard
Sherman off in San Francisco. They need fresh blood on the outside to continue
to play their unique press Cover-3 hybrid, and Jackson is exactly the type of
cornerback they’re looking for. He isn’t as big or as physical as Sherman, but
he has the downhill closing speed and ball skills to fill the same role as they
try to keep their defense rolling through its loss of talent.
19. Dallas Cowboys – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
Fitzpatrick
was once in the conversation as a top five pick, but he has slid through the
draft process as questions have popped up about his athletic ability and
ceiling. But he is a highly intelligent and instinctive player who can
contribute immediately in a wide variety of roles. If he is available at this point Dallas will be happy to have him to plug in as a versatile attacker and long term leader on their still shaky defense.
20. Detroit Lions – Sony Michel, RB, Georgia
It’s
a bit laughable just how bad Detroit’s running backs have been in recent years,
and I think that’s the most likely position for them to address with this pick.
For a while I would have gone with the more physical Derrius Guice out of LSU,
but there are reports that teams have concerns about his maturity and
coachability. Michel has risen as the draft process has gone along, and he’s a
name that could surprise some people by going higher than they expect.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Harold Landry, EDGE,
Boston College
This
isn’t the biggest need after getting a productive rookie season from Carl
Lawson, but the Bengals are historically a team that drafts more on talent than
need. Landry’s speed up the field is a rare gift, and they can find a role for
two explosive young pass rushers. If they don't go after Landry, I could see this as a spot for an offensive lineman or a wide receiver to come off the board.
22. Buffalo Bills – Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
The
Bills lost Richie Incognito to retirement and traded away Cordy Glenn to move
up for a chance at a quarterback. They desperately need help on the offensive
line, and Miller is one of the hot rising prospects of this class. I haven’t
had a chance to study him yet, but by all indications he is one of the most
physically gifted offensive linemen available this year, even if these gifts
haven’t yet translated to consistent blocking success.
23. New England Patriots – Josh Reid, S,
Stanford
Reid
seems like the perfect Patriots prospect. He isn’t a traditional safety
prospect, but he can be a very effective player put into the right role on a
defense. He can fill holes on the back end as New England’s starting safeties
age, or he can bounce inside as a cornerback matching up against slot
receivers. Bill Belichick loves versatility, and Reid is one of the most
versatile players in the draft.
24. Carolina Panthers – Will Hernandez, OG,
UTEP
The
Panthers always seem to surprise me with the direction they go. They’re a team
that seems to prefer stacking up talent at a specific position, spending high
draft picks in recent years on a linebacker and a defensive tackle despite
appearing set at this position. I don’t know what to expect from them this
year, but I do know they lost one of their best offensive players in Andrew
Norwell. Their offensive line was shaky even before he left, and they need
someone to stabilize the middle. Hernandez is big and athletic, and he fits the
power rushing attack the Panthers have cultivated over the past few years.
25. Tennessee Titans – Leighton Vander Esch,
LB, Boise State
Tennessee
has quietly had a very good offseason, adding useful veterans Malcolm Butler
and Dion Lewis in positions of need. They’ve patched up a lot of the holes on
their roster, but they still have some issues to address. I would probably
point myself first at wide receiver, but after spending a top five pick on
Corey Davis last year I doubt they want to invest another first round
selection. So instead they’ll try to fill the gap in the middle of their
defense. Vander Esch put up great numbers at the Combine, and even though this
athleticism doesn’t show up on film, he brings some intriguing potential late
in the first round.
26. Atlanta Falcons – Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
There
are a lot of signs suggesting that the Falcons want to beef up the middle of
their defense, and over the past couple drafts they have prioritized raw
athletes over fully developed players. Bryan fits both these criteria
perfectly. He is insanely explosive off the ball, able to appear in the
backfield sometimes before the lineman across from him has even left his
stance. There’s not much more to his game right now besides this initial burst,
but that’s the sort of starting point that could develop into one of the most
dangerous interior defenders in the league.
27. New Orleans Saints – Mike Gesicki, TE,
Penn State
I
don’t think Gesicki is a first round talent, but someone is going to fall in
love with his athletic ability. It would be a good fit on both sides of the
equation for the Saints to make this move. Gesicki is a similar player to their
former star Jimmy Graham, a dominant down the field athlete who is more of a
wide receiver than a true tight end. They need a down the field threat to
complement the more technical game of Michael Thomas, and Gesicki could add an
explosive element to an offense that was missing it last year.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers – Rashaan Evans, LB,
Alabama
Ryan
Shazier isn’t going to be available in 2018, and he may never make it back.
Linebacker was already a weakness for the Steelers, and losing one of their best
defensive players from the position is a blow that will be difficult to absorb.
Evans is a very different player from Shazier, but he would fit in well in
Pittsburgh’s defense, combining devastating hits with menace as a blitzer to
give them some hint of a spark at that position.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars – DJ Moore, WR,
Maryland
This
was one of the hardest positions to fill. I ended up going with a wide
receiver, but I don’t feel great about it. Even after making Norwell the
highest paid guard in football I could still see them addressing their
offensive line, and I could also see a tight end. This would be a good spot for
someone to trade up to try to grab a quarterback before the end of the first
round. But if the Jaguars stay here, I think they’ll try to replace some of
what they lost with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns leaving this offseason.
Moore has enough upside that I think he’ll sneak into the first round, even if
there are several more NFL ready receivers left on the board.
30. Minnesota Vikings – Isaiah Wynn, OG,
Georgia
Minnesota
needs to draft someone who can contribute right away, and they need to target a
specific need on their team. More depth on the defensive line or in the
secondary is definitely a possibility, and I could see someone like Maurice
Hurst or Jaire Alexander sliding into this spot. But the most pressing need is
once again along the offensive line. Wynn’s short frame will likely consign him
to guard for most of his career, but he has the flexibility to play four
different positions on the line, and the Vikings will hope to slide him in as a
starter right away as they make another push for a Super Bowl title.
31. New England Patriots – Mason Rudolph,
QB, Oklahoma State
Five
quarterbacks are absolutely going to go in the first round this year, and I
wouldn’t be stunned to see Rudolph make it six. The Patriots are once again
looking for a backup/heir apparent for Tom Brady, and if they don’t trade up to
go after someone like Jackson or Rosen, Rudolph is the best option they’re
going to get. They could also trade down with a team who missed out on a
quarterback in the early run and wants to make sure they come away with
something at that position.
32. Philadelphia Eagles – Jaire Alexander,
CB, Louisville
There
aren’t many holes on Philadelphia’s roster, but they could still use some help
at cornerback. There are health concerns that could knock Alexander out of the
first round, but if he can stay on the field he has the ability to contribute
either as an outside cornerback or in the slot. Adding another lockdown
cornerback would make this defense a nightmare to go against and get
Philadelphia one step closer to repeating last year’s success.
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