2018 Mock Draft: GM for a Day

We’ve got two days to go until the NFL Draft, which means that it is finally mock draft time! As always I’ll be putting out two mock drafts. This first one is what would happen if I was responsible for making every pick. The one I’ll put up tomorrow will go through what I think will actually happen. Once again, I will not be including any trades in these mock drafts, because I frankly think they’re more fun this way.

This year’s draft is extremely light on talent at the very top of the draft, which meant that I was forced to reach on a lot of players that probably should not have gone as high as I have them going. But as the draft wore on I was surprised to see a couple names slipping farther than I expected. There’s some good talent out there to be found later in the first round.

I include a brief explanation of my logic with each pick, mostly focused on the needs of the teams making the selections. If you want to read more on the prospects I selected, here are the links.
Cornerback
Wide Receiver and Tight EndRuning Back
Linebacker and Safety
Defensive Interior
Offensive Line
Edge 
Quarterback 

1.     Cleveland Browns – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

This was by far the easiest selection I had to make. Not only is Rosen the best quarterback in the draft, he’s the best player overall, so there was no need to waste time debating the relative importance of various positions. I’m a little worried how he’ll far behind an offensive line playing without Joe Thomas for the first time in a decade, but the Browns still have more talent up front than most of the teams selecting this high, and they should be able to cover for Rosen’s struggles under pressure.

2.     New York Giants – Derwin James, S, Florida State

This is where the draft gets tricky. I was tempted to give the Giants a quarterback, but I’m not a believer in letting a rookie sit on the bench, and as long as Eli Manning is still on the roster he is going to be the starter. It helps that they have a shot at James, by a wide margin the best non-quarterback in the class. I was a little worried about selecting someone who fills the same role as Landon Collins, until I remembered that the role James and Collins fill is “everything”. He’s a dynamic player with superstar potential, and I couldn’t pass that up.

3.     New York Jets – Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

I was also tempted to have the other New York team pass on a quarterback as well, mostly because I wanted another opportunity to gush about Teddy Bridgewater. But there are real questions about Bridgewater’s knee, he’s only under contract for one season, and there is no player of James’s quality to grab instead. So I gave Jackson to the Jets, letting them figure out how to use his unique and remarkable talents.

4.     Cleveland Browns – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

The Browns are in a good place here. They got their quarterback, and now they have their pick of all other positions. Unfortunately, with James off the board there really isn’t a player worth selecting this high. There’s no skill position star, no dominant edge rusher, and no star tackle to replace Thomas. The best I could give them is Smith, a versatile linebacker who could turn into a star, if he can overcome some clear and serious flaws.

5.     Denver Broncos – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

Denver needs help on the offensive line, and it was sorely tempting to give them Quenton Nelson. But when there’s a talent like Allen there on the board, I had to make the pick. Allen’s physical tools are undeniable, and he’s more polished than people give him credit for. I’m concerned about putting him behind a mediocre offensive line, and Denver’s utter inability to develop Paxton Lynch makes me worry that this isn’t the best place for a raw quarterback. But Allen is a much better prospect than Lynch ever was, and if Denver’s coaches can’t get something out of him as a rookie there will very likely be a new regime to give it a shot next year.

6.     Indianapolis Colts – Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

This is the perfect situation for the Colts. If they had stayed at number three I would have had them drafting Nelson as well, and they got an insane bounty to get the best player on the board who fits their needs. Whenever Andrew Luck does come back, he is going to need a lot more help than he had earlier in his career, and that starts with pass protection from the players lined up right in front of him.

7.     Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA

Tampa Bay has spent years looking for someone who can bring consistent pressure off the edge. Noah Spence still has promise, but he hasn’t worked out as they had hoped. Davenport brings quite a bit of risk, but he’s an above average athlete who dominated against lower level competition in college. It may take him some time to adjust and develop in the NFL, but if he can live up to his potential he has the ability to be the superstar their defense needs as Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David age.

8.     Chicago Bears – Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State

The Bears have a lot of young talent in the front seven of their defense, but they are still searching for a consistent threat off the edge. Two years ago they spent a top ten selection on Leonard Floyd, who has been equal parts unremarkable and promising early in his career. Adding Chubb will take the pressure off of him to contribute as a pass rusher, freeing him up to use his athleticism in a wider variety of ways.

9.     San Francisco 49ers – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

The situation with Reuben Foster is messy, and even if he can make it back the 49ers will need another piece at linebacker. Evans has slipped some during the draft process after putting up disappointing athletic numbers, and it’s reasonable to be concerned about if he can live up to this draft billing. But he has the ability to jump in immediately as a starter on the interior of this defense, bringing physicality and nastiness that could power this young and improving unit.

10.  Oakland Raiders – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

A year ago the Raiders spent their first round pick on Ohio State cornerback Gareon Conley, and their pass defense was still a complete disaster. So I figure they might as well grab another Buckeye. Ward isn’t as good as Conley was coming out, but he’s more versatile, able to bump in and play the slot as the need demands. With two young, physical cornerbacks guarding the back end of their defense, the Raiders might actually have some hope of slowing down opposing offenses next year.

11.  Miami Dolphins – Lorenzo Carter, EDGE, Georgia

I really don’t know what Miami is doing this offseason. Half their moves have seemed like they’re tearing things down, while the other half make it look like they’re gearing up for a run in the weak AFC. If they are rebuilding, it might make sense to grab a young quarterback to take over for when they part ways with Ryan Tannehill. But I think that’s premature. Carter is a player who can contribute immediately in a number of roles on their defense, and who has the ability to develop into a top line player with elite athleticism a couple years down the road.

12.  Buffalo Bills – Sam Darnold, QB, USC

Buffalo is going to take a quarterback in the first round. In all likelihood they are going to have to trade up into the top ten, but in this scenario they are lucky enough to have Darnold drop into their lap. There’s a decent dropoff after the top three quarterbacks, and I think the risk of Darnold turning into a complete bust are higher than I would normally like from a pick this high. But the Bills have no one else at that position, and if Darnold pans out this is a pick that could turn their team around for the next decade.

13.  Washington Redskins – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

Washington is a team with a lot of decent players and no real great ones. They need a star, and Edmunds has the potential to become that star. He is big, he is fast, and while he is still learning the position, he has flashed enough ability to make me believe he can improve into a top level defender a couple years down the road.

14.  Green Bay Packers – Justin Reid, S, Stanford

Green Bay needs something in the secondary, and it’s just a matter of what position they target. It wouldn’t be a mistake to grab a pure cornerback like Mike Hughes or Josh Jackson, but I think the higher value approach is to grab the versatile Reid. He is the sort of player that makes it easy to build a secondary around, able to play a number of roles varying from deep coverage to man-to-man in the slot.

15.  Arizona Cardinals – Vita Vea, DT, Washington

The Cardinals could use a quarterback, but Baker Mayfield isn’t worth selecting this high. So instead they start the slow process of rebuilding the defense that was so deep and talented just a couple years ago. Vea is a run stuffing presence in the middle, which on its own wouldn’t be worth a first round pick. But I think he shows enough as a pocket collapsing presence in the pass rush to contribute to a defense on all three downs.

16.  Baltimore Ravens – Billy Price, C, Ohio State

Baltimore’s offense has been an utter disaster for a couple years now. There’s not much they can do about the biggest problem, which is Joe Flacco, but if they can continue to rebuild their offensive line they can at least get back to the mediocrity that made them regular playoff contenders a couple years ago. Price is dealing with a torn pectoral muscle which will limit him some this offseason, but if he can get back healthy for the regular season he’s the sort of solid presence in the middle that can stabilize and elevate this entire unit.

17.  Los Angeles Chargers – Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford

The Chargers have rebuilt their defense around an elite pass rush and a talented secondary, and now they need some toughness in the middle. I would like to go with a linebacker here, but with the top choices at that position off the board, I’ll grab a lineman instead. I’m higher on Phillips than most, and his performance at the Combine certainly adds intrigue to film that is otherwise impressive but uninspiring. He has the ability to be an immediate presence in the middle, and possibly the potential to grow into something more disruptive.

18.  Seattle Seahawks – Sony Michel, RB, Georgia

Michel probably should have gone higher than this, but I had trouble finding a team that needed a running back. Ideally the Seahawks would be grabbing an offensive lineman, but there isn’t one worth taking at this point. So instead they take the pressure off of Russell Wilson another way, giving him a reliable rushing attack and checkdown weapon so he doesn’t have to account for all the yards the offense gains.

19.  Dallas Cowboys – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

Once again Dallas is in desperate need of help on their defense, and Fitzpatrick has the ability to plug a bunch of holes at once. If they need a slot cornerback, he can play there. If they need an athletic linebacker, he can play there. If they need a deep safety, he can play there too. His lack of athleticism sets him apart from the top prospects in the draft, but on film he was one of the most productive players in college football, and he’s good value here in the second half of the first round.

20.  Detroit Lions – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Obviously Barkley is going to go a lot higher than this on Thursday night. And while I’m not opposed to running backs being selected in the top ten of the draft, I just don’t think Barkley is that guy. His physical ability is undeniable, and he is a true game changer in open space. But he spends far too much time dancing behind the line, and it will take a lot of coaching to turn him into a consistent, productive runner. And with the general brevity of running back careers, a high investment at this position requires immediate impact, something I’m not confident Barkley can provide.

21.  Cincinnati Bengals – Arden Key, EDGE, LSU

There is a lot that goes into the decision to draft Key, a player who had a tumultuous final year in college both on and off the field. But the talent is absolutely there, and no team has more experience dealing with these sort of concerns than Cincinnati. Carl Lawson is coming off of an impressive rookie season, and adding Key would give them a pair of high upside pass rushers to terrify quarterbacks over the coming years.

22.  Buffalo Bills – Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

Buffalo got their quarterback, and now they need to address one of the other gaping holes on their offense. There aren’t any offensive linemen worth taking at this point, so they’ll grab the first receiver off the board. With Jordan Matthews moving on and Zay Jones dealing with off the field issues, they need someone desperately for their new quarterback to the throw to. I was tempted to jump my rankings to grab someone with more speed, but in this case I think talent trumps fit, and they can’t pass up on the more talented player just because they’re already bogged down with slow receivers.

23.  New England Patriots – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

New England’s passing offense was much more aggressive down the field last year than at any point in recent memory, but with Brandin Cooks traded away they are going to have to either change their scheme or find a player with the speed to replace him. With Ridley on the board I’ll go for the latter approach. He has the speed to take the top off of defenses, and with some work he has the tools to develop into a quality route runner. The Patriots are an ideal situation to utilize his talents and minimize his weaknesses, and this is the sort of pick that could look like a real value in several years.

24.  Carolina Panthers – Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College

Julius Peppers continues to be a nightmare coming off the edge, and at this point I’m not sure if it will ever be reasonable to write him off. But even with Peppers, the Panthers still could use another pass rusher to get after the opposing quarterback. Landry has the best pure speed rush in the class, and with the talent Carolina has clogging up lanes in the middle, his ability to bend around the corner could make him an instant ten sack contributor.

25.  Tennessee Titans – Sam Hubbard, EDGE, Ohio State

The Ohio State connection between Hubbard and new Titans coach Mike Vrabel are obvious, but outside of that Hubbard is exactly the sort of player Tennessee needs. This defense is slowly coming together, but they’re aging along the front. Hubbard can contribute in both the run and the passing game, making up in consistency what he lacks in upside.

26.  Atlanta Falcons – Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

Desmond Trufant came back from injury last season and didn’t really look himself. He is still a good cornerback, but he was far from the elite player he was a couple years ago. Only time will tell if he will ever bounce back, and even if he does the Falcons still have a hole on the opposite side of the field. Hughes would be a good pickup, a safe option who can slot into a variety of roles and fill out a defense that is already stocked with talented youngsters.

27.  New Orleans Saints – Josh Sweat, EDGE, Florida State

The Saints got an incredible performance out of their rookie class on the defensive side of the ball last year, but they still need young talent there. In particular they need to beef up their pass rush, which can’t rely on Cameron Jordan destroying things in the middle forever. Sweat falls this far because of a lack of production at the college level, but his physical tools are as good as any player in the draft, and he’s the sort of player who could turn into a star a couple years down the road.

28.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

Pittsburgh’s defense is improving, but they still regularly give up too much on the outside. Their defense plays a bit too conservatively at times, giving up underneath routes and hoping they can make enough plays to stymie the opposition as they approach the endzone. This scheme plays perfectly to Jackson’s talents. He’s not going to lock down a receiver man-to-man, but he can make plays coming downhill, with the best ball skills in the class and the ability to swing games with a single huge play.

29.  Jacksonville Jaguars – James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

The Jaguars will remain hampered on offense until they move on from Blake Bortles, but with the extension they signed this offseason, it’s hard to justify spending this pick on a quarterback. So instead I’ll try to salvage their offense the best way I can. They won’t be able to move the ball consistently through the air, but with Washington streaking down the field they might be able to convert a few key deep shots, enough to elevate this unit from mediocre to acceptable.

30.  Minnesota Vikings – Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP

Minnesota is all in on a Super Bowl run this next season, so they have to look to fill the biggest hole currently on their roster. With the retirement of Joe Berger they have a big gap on the interior of their offensive line, and Hernandez certainly has the size to fill it. He might not be the best schematic fit, but he has the power and the nastiness to contribute day one against NFL defenders, which is what the Vikings need more than anything else.

31.  New England Patriots – Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Baker Mayfield will end up being a first round pick on Thursday, but I couldn’t find any way to fit him into this mock draft. I definitely considered dropping him in New England, but in the end I decided it was more important to grab a player who might contribute while the Tom Brady Super Bowl window is still open. Hurst may not bring the immediate impact they would like, but his ceiling is high, and I can’t think of anyone better than Bill Belichick to get the most out of his explosive ability.

32.  Philadelphia Eagles – DJ Moore, WR, Maryland

Philadelphia is sitting in a really good spot, with a deep roster and a Super Bowl title in their back pocket. They are able to make a luxury pick, so they go after the highest ceiling receiver in the draft. Moore needs to do some developing still, but in a couple years he could be the best skill position player to come out of this class, a weapon to pair with Carson Wentz as he enters the prime of his career.