Thursday, April 26, 2018

2018 NFL Draft: First Round Review


The first round is in the books, and it was actually kind of by the books. There were few trades, and only a couple major surprises. I’ll try to have more to say tomorrow, but here are my immediate thoughts.

1.     Cleveland Browns – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Well, the Browns proved they can at least keep a secret. After weeks of debate between Sam Darnold and Josh Allen, it was only in the past couple days that Mayfield’s name started popping up in connection to this pick. Of the top five quarterbacks I had Mayfield ranked fifth, not seeing much real upside in him. He thrived in college throwing to wide open receivers on simple reads, and when he was forced to go through his progressions his accuracy disappeared. In the right system and in the right circumstances he might be able to turn into a productive starter. Of course, he ended up in Cleveland, which is pretty much the exact opposite of right system and right circumstances.

2.     New York Giants – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
I thought for sure that the Giants would go with Sam Darnold here. I wouldn’t have been a fan of that pick, but I would have liked it better than this one. Barkley is a sensational athlete, and he can do some excellent things in space, but as a pure running back behind the line he is below average. He shies away from contact, ignores holes trying to bounce the play to the outside, and creates a lot of negative plays by refusing to take three to four yard carries. Three or four years down the road he could be a great player, but you don’t take a running back in the top five for three or four years down the road.

3.     New York Jets – Sam Darnold, QB, USC
Like the first two picks this is one I wouldn’t have made, but I can at least understand it. Darnold has tremendous physical tools, with excellent mobility and a live arm. He’s inconsistent reading the field, and his mechanics are an absolute mess in both the upper and lower body, and when he inevitably sees the field this year it will be very ugly on a team without much of a supporting cast. But if they stay patient with him, he could be a genuine star.

4.     Cleveland Browns – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
This was the first real shock of the night. I’d heard some talk of Ward making his way into the top ten, but I mostly dismissed it. He is nowhere near this good as a prospect, lacking the ball skills or the physicality of a truly elite cornerback. This was a position of need for the Browns, but they had lots of positions of need, and if they felt they were set at pass rusher and didn’t feel like drafting Bradley Chubb, they would have been better off going with someone like Derwin James or Roquan Smith instead.

5.     Denver Broncos – Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State
This pick makes more sense than the ones above from a value perspective, but I still don’t really understand it from a need point of view. Pass rush is the one part of the team where Denver seems pretty much set, with Von Miller, Shane Ray, and Shaquil Barrett coming off the edge. I’m not as big a fan of Chubb as most, but he has the potential to be a fringe Pro Bowl player, and it’s hard to pass up on adding that to a defense (despite what Cleveland may believe).

6.     Indianapolis Colts – Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
Nelson has some stuff to clean up, and he’s not the immediate All Pro player some have claimed him to be. But it’s hard to fault the Colts for finally adding some talent to their beleaguered offensive line. Nelson can be physically overwhelming in the running game, and once he fixes his occasionally sloppy hands as a pass blocker he can be exactly what the Colts need to keep Andrew Luck from being battered to pieces again.

7.     Buffalo Bills – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
The Bills had no quarterback, and they pretty much had to make this move. They managed to get up from the 21st selection into the top ten without giving up their other first round pick, which will allow them to address one of the other glaring holes on their offense. I like Allen, but this isn’t a great place for him to go. He falls to pieces quickly under pressure, and the Bills will have to add something to an offensive line that just lost their two best starters.

8.     Chicago Bears – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
The Bears are slowly putting together a really good football team. Smith is a burner in the middle of the defense, excelling racing sideline to sideline and dropping back into coverage. He can be a outmuscled in the running game, and putting him on the field will ask a lot more of Eddie Goldman and the other Bears defensive linemen. But in the modern league a linebacker being pushed around is a reasonable tradeoff to make for someone with the potential to be a star.

9.     San Francisco 49ers – Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
Joe Staley is nearing the end of his career, and the 49ers need someone to protect their big investment in Jimmy Garappolo. The problem is that college football really isn’t churning out NFL ready offensive tackles. This is too high for McGlinchey to go, but he’s a reasonable choice if you’re going to reach for a tackle. There are better ways the 49ers could have gone with this, but I don’t hate it that much.

10.  Arizona Cardinals – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The best quarterback in the draft is the fourth off the board. Not only is Rosen the best quarterback, he’s the best player period. He’s a phenomenally accurate passer, with wonderful footwork and an arm that constantly surprises you with its power and velocity. The only real thing lacking in his game is mobility, both making plays outside the pocket and maneuvering within it. But he has the ability to be an above average quarterback from the moment he steps on the field, and him versus Sam Bradford will be a very interesting quarterback battle to watch.

11.  Miami Dolphins – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
Fitzpatrick is a very skilled and very intelligent player who can contribute in a lot of different roles. He’s at his best as a slot cornerback, but he can be effective in the box as a linebacker or deep as a safety. I would have gone with the similar but more athletic version of Fitzpatrick in Derwin James, but it’s hard to hate this selection.

12.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Vita Vea, DT, Washington
I like Vea more than most, but I don’t understand this selection. James was the perfect fit for this team, and the fact that he was still available after they traded down five spots should have had them jumping with joy. But Vea has the ability to be an immediate contributor as a run stuffer, and it will be interesting to see how he develops as a pass rusher. If he can develop his athleticism into an effective pass rusher, he can be well worth this pick. But there’s a risk he will only ever be a run stuffer, which will render him only a part time player.

13.  Washington Redskins – Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
It’s hard to make sense of this. I heard that the Redskins loved Vea, so when he went to Tampa Bay did they just decide to say screw it and take the next defensive tackle on their board? Except that Payne is nothing like Vea as a player. He’s actually a lot like Jonathan Allen, the Alabama defensive tackle they took last year, except nowhere near as good. He’s not particularly athletic, he’s not an effective finisher in the backfield, and he shouldn’t have been a first round pick.

14.  New Orleans Saints – Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA
I’m not sure what to think of this. Davenport was my highest rated edge rusher, and I think a couple years down the road he could turn into a real star. But with an aging Drew Brees, the Saints really aren’t in position to play for a couple years down the road. And if they are trying to restock to ease their transition into the future, how can they justify giving up a first round selection next year to jump this high? Once again it seems like the Saints have no plan, and even adding an extremely talented player can’t make up for that.

15.  Oakland Raiders – Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
I haven’t studied Miller thoroughly, but I’ll try to get back to you tomorrow.

16.  Buffalo Bills – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
The Bills have no one at wide receiver or on the offensive line, and it’s hard to justify them not giving Josh Allen some help. But if they were going to go defense, it’s hard not to be intrigued by this selection. Edmunds is extremely raw, but he is a rare physical specimen, with impressive size and insane athleticism. He’s only 19 years old, and he improved as his last season in college went along. He has the potential to be one of the best defensive players in football if he’s given time to develop.

17.  Los Angeles Chargers – Derwin James, S, Florida State
This isn’t the biggest need for the Chargers after adding some very good young players to their secondary last year, but I’m not going to fault them for grabbing the best non-quarterback in the draft with the seventeenth pick. James is a fantastic athlete who is only going to get better with experience, and he has the flexibility to plug in wherever they want him on this defense.

18.  Green Bay Packers – Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
Alexander is a good player, and in Green Bay’s secondary he will likely start right away. He isn’t particularly big, and he struggles against receivers who can jump over him. He will likely be at his best playing in the slot, where his quickness can match in space against smaller receivers. Keeping him towards the middle of the field will make it easier to protect him over the top with a safety, where his aggression is less likely to burn his defense. There were better cornerbacks on the board, but this isn’t a terrible pick, considering need and upside.

19.  Dallas Cowboys – Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
I’m still not sure what to make of Vander Esch, but I’m pretty sure this is too high for him. He plays slow on the field, and he’s not as physical as you need someone of his size to be. But he flashes moments of excellence, and his testing at the Combine shows more promise than he did on the field. I wouldn’t be stunned if this pick worked out, but at this point I wouldn’t count on it.

20.  Detroit Lions – Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas
Another offensive linemen I haven’t studied yet. I’ll try to get on it tomorrow.

21.  Cincinnati Bengals – Billy Price, C, Ohio State
All indications are that Price is making excellent progress coming back from the chest injury he suffered at the Combine, and if that’s the case this is a fantastic pick. Price is a dominant run blocker who wins with his hands on almost every play, bending defenders backwards and moving them out of the hole. He absorbs contact well in the passing game, and if he was a better athlete he’d be up there with Quenton Nelson among top interior offensive line prospects I’ve scouted.

22.  Tennessee Titans – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
Evans isn’t a great athlete, but his tape was some of the most fun I watched this year. He’s the hardest hitter in the draft, able to sidestep blockers and explode downhill to demolish running backs. He’s also surprisingly effective coming off the edge as a pass rusher, fitting two needs for the Titans defense. There are a lot of interesting tools here, and it will be fascinating to watch how the Titans work to develop a role for him on the defense.

23.  New England Patriots – Isaiah Wynn, OT/OG, Georgia
I didn’t really understand the hype around Wynn when I watched him on film. He isn’t particularly athletic, and he isn’t particularly strong. He can get some good leverage playing down the field, but he doesn’t drive people out of the play. He’ll be a competent starting lineman, but I don’t see a lot of upside to this selection.

24.  Carolina Panthers – DJ Moore, WR, Maryland
The first receiver off the board is also the most interesting. Moore isn’t as polished as several of the other options in the draft, but he is a phenomenal athlete with tools that could translate to the next level. It will take him a while to iron out his inconsistencies running routes and playing at the point of the catch, but he will make several insane athletic grabs this year that will leave fans salivating about his development in the future.

25.  Baltimore Ravens – Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
All these linemen and tight ends I didn’t get around to watching. Looks like I’ve got some work to do tomorrow.

26.  Atlanta Falcons – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
I could maybe understand the Falcons adding another weapon to their offense in the second or the third round. But this high, I kind of feel like they needed to address one of the holes on their defense. Ridley fell more than people expected, but he’s not talented enough to justify this pick. He’s fast but he’s undersized, and he’ll likely never be more than a complementary deep threat.

27.  Seattle Seahawks – Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State
Wow, this is a player I never once saw mentioned in the first round conversation. So once again I’m going to have to defer until tomorrow.

28.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech
Okay, now they’re just trying to ruin my Friday. I’d heard some buzz that the second Edmunds brother was moving into the first round mix, but this still caught me off guard, especially with Justin Reid on the board.

29.  Jacksonville Jaguars – Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
It’s an interesting strategy to look at the strongest part of your team and decide to draft another player there. But defensive line is a good place to build depth, and Bryan will have the ability to develop as a situational player for a year or two. He has tremendous first step burst, and if he can round out the rest of his game he can be a real star by the time he hits his prime.

30.  Minnesota Vikings – Mike Hughes, CB, UCF
This isn’t a huge immediate need for the Vikings, and Hughes will probably not see the field much as a rookie. But like the defensive line, the secondary is a good place to build depth, and this give the Vikings more flexibility if they want to move on from Trae Waynes or Mackenzie Alexander going forward. The only issue I have is that this doesn’t make the Vikings better this year, which should have been the goal for a team that has invested so much in this season.

31.  New England Patriots – Sony Michel, RB, Georgia
Michel was my top running back in the draft, and this is excellent value at the end of the first round. He is an excellent downhill runner who will happily take the easy gains given to him in New England’s offense, and he can contribute in the passing game as well. The only real concern with him is ball security, which is a notorious sore spot for Bill Belichick. But the talent is enough to overcome that and to add an extra spark to New England’s offense.

32.  Baltimore Ravens – Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
When this pick came up I knew someone was going to trade up to grab Jackson. I did not expect that team to be Baltimore, but I don’t hate the decision. They’re stuck with Joe Flacco for two more years at least, but I expect sometime this season he will find himself on the bench. Jackson is a playmaker of unlimited upside, and even if he doesn’t live up to his potential as a passer, his abilities as a runner are more than enough to power an offense.

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