2018 NFL Draft: In Depth

Additional Player Writeups

I try to study every eventual first round pick prior to the draft, but this process has an annoying habit of being unpredictable. So last night there were five players selected I hadn’t had a chance to study in depth. I watched a couple games of each of them today so I could give my thoughts on the picks below.

15. Oakland Raiders – Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

Miller is a rare athletic specimen, with a combination that makes you wonder how he was ever not in conversation for a first round pick. He scored better than the 85^th percentile in the forty yard dash, vetical and broad jumps, 3 cone drill and 20 yard shuttle. He is long, he’s fast, and he’s comfortable working in space, basically everything you could want from an offensive tackle.

All this ability only makes it more frustrating when he struggles with the basics of the position. He’s a quality run blocker, especially when he’s asked to reach and seal off a player that would be out of range for most NFLoffensive tackles. The passing game is a different story. There he looks like someone who has never played the position for doing it for the first time.

His footwork is atrocious, and it constantly gets him in trouble against rushers coming around the edge. His first step is more lateral than vertical, and his weight shifts unsteadily coming out of his stance, causing a false step that prevents him from getting to the outside. He often ends up lunging and leaning too far forward when he goes for his punch, and despite his athleticism he struggles to recover once he’s beaten to the outside.

Athletic potential alone probably makes Miller worth a late first round pick in a weak tackle class, but it was a reach for the Raiders to select him at 15. His ceiling is high, but he needs to completely rebuild his technique from the ground up, and I’m not confident Oakland is the place to do it. Raiders offensive line coach Tom Cable is coming off several years of utter failure trying to develop offensive linemen in Seattle, and now he will have his hands full with a player as raw as any he’s handled.

20. Detroit Lions – Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas

Ragnow is a quality run blocker who has quite a bit of work to do to reach NFL caliber when it comes to protecting the quarterback. He tested well at the Combine, but he doesn’t look particularly athletic on the field, looking awkward on his pulls and inconsistent moving to the second level. I could see him developing into a very good center someday, but I think it was a reach for Detroit to take him in the first round, especially with the superior Billy Price still on the board.

Ragnow fires out well and does a good job leading with his hands, striking a defensive lineman and occasionally knocking him backwards. He doesn’t really have the strength to turn defenders, but he takes good angles that allows him to strike with leverage and seal them off. In short yardage he can be physically overwhelmed, but for the most part he avoids glaring mistakes in the running game and can open some good holes as well.

The same cannot be said of him in the passing game. He is up and down absorbing contact, and at times he ends up blown backwards into the quarterback’s lap. When he does manage to stymie a lineman’s initial rush, he doesn’t latch on with his hands, and he has issues keeping the defender within his frame. He doesn’t shuffle his feet to mirror defenders, and very often they are able to slide over to one of his shoulders, which they can then leverage into creating a lane to the quarterback.

Ragnow’s testing numbers make him interesting, but he is going to have to develop a lot more strength and awareness in the NFL. He will likely start from day one for the Lions, but he won’t make a major impact as a rookie. He has the upside to become a very good starter in a few years, though until then the Lions may find themselves regretting this pick.

25. Baltimore Ravens – Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

Hurst is the epitome of a bland, replaceable rotation tight end. He has experience in a variety of roles, from an in line tight end, to a wing off the tackle, to a slot receiver, to a single receiver spread wide. He didn’t excel in any of those roles, but he didn’t embarrass himself in any of them either. He was merely competent, with an athletic profile that suggests little potential to become anything more than that.

Hurst can occasionally be overwhelmed physically as a blocker, and he will need to add strength to succeed in that role in the NFL. But he’s willing to stick his head in there, and he’s farther along than most tight ends that come out. Blocking will never be a strength of his, but he has the tools to become above average playing inside the box.

Hurst does a few good things as a receiver. He handles press coverage well and keeps steady through his route even as defenders try to push him off balance. His catch radius isn’t what you’d hope for from a first round tight end, but he can go outside his frame to make some difficult receptions, including fighting through contact. He doesn’t do much as a route runner, and his athletic numbers suggest that he likely won’t ever develop the ability to separate from man to man coverage.

I don’t understand what the Ravens were thinking spending a first round pick on Hurst. He’s a high floor player, but his ceiling is just as low. If they wanted a true receiving threat, they could have gone with Mike Gesicki. If they wanted a versatile tight end, they could have taken Dallas Goedert. And I can’t say I understand liking Lamar Jackson enough to trade back into the first round but not enough to select here. Hurst probably shouldn’t have gone before the third round and this is one of my least favorite picks of the first round.

27. Seattle Seahawks – Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State

Penny was the first player taken that I absolutely did not expect to see go in the first round, and after watching a couple games of film on him I can’t say it makes any more sense. He was extremely productive his final year in college, rushing for 2248 yards and 23 touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per carry. His stats were there, but his film shows very little reason to believe this will translate to the next level.

Penny isn’t a particularly fast back, but he can build up decent speed once he hits the second level. He’s best running straight downhill, and he knows it, only occasionally getting into trouble by trying to do too much. His vision is good, and he’s at his best in a zone scheme where he can spot a hole on the backside and make a single cut to turn himself upfield. He doesn’t make people miss in space, but he has decent acceleration coming off a sharp downhill cut in the backfield.

At 220 pounds he has good size, but this doesn’t translate to his style. He goes down at the first contact, showing no leg drive and no ability to make people miss. He doesn’t bring much in the passing game either. He can do a little damage as a checkdown threat, but he rarely lined up on the outside, looking sloppy with his routes and appearing to use these plays to catch his breath more than anything else. He is a disaster in pass protection, and he certainly won’t be able to play on third downs early in his career.

Last year Seattle’s offense was almost entirely on Russell Wilson to gain every yard they needed, and they couldn’t afford to put that much weight on him again this year. It would have been more effective to address the offensive line, but running back isn’t a bad direction to go either. The problem is that they spent a first round pick on a running back who probably shouldn’t have gone before the fourth round, passing up much better players for someone with little flexibility and little upside.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers – Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech

The older brother of the more highly touted Tremaine, Edmunds brings a similarly impressive collection of physical tools to the defense. He isn’t as big as his brother but has good size for a safety, and he impressed with a 4.47 forty and scoring better than the 95^th percentile in both broad and vertical jump. He is fast and explosive, and he has all the tools to be a dynamic, playmaking safety.

These traits show up when he’s asked to do something simple, like following a receiver in man coverage. His speed allows him to stick stride for stride on crossing routes, and he has good burst to close the distance between himself and the receiver as the ball arrives. He can get beaten by double moves, and he needs to be better at getting his head around to locate the ball in the air. But he still fares better here than he does when asked to play a deep zone, where he is constantly late with his rotations and struggles to anticipate passes.

Most of Edmunds’s issues are between his ears. He is generally slow processing the play in front of him. He doesn’t reach the sidelines on deep passes into his zone, and he doesn’t fill quickly enough against the run. He’s a reliable tackler in space, but he always seems to stop and catch a ball carrier, surrendering yards rather than trusting himself and closing. His situational awareness and instincts simply aren’t there, which is not something you want to say about a multiple year starter at a major college program.

This was a bad pick by the Steelers. Despite Edmunds’s athleticism, I don’t think he was worth more than a late second round pick. He has a lot more development to do to reach his potential, and I don’t think he fits in particularly well to a Steelers defense that already has plenty of good athletes who haven’t proven themselves as football players. There were better options on the board at multiple positions of need (notably Justin Reid, a superior safety to Edmunds who fits in better with what the Steelers are looking for.

Later Round Picks

Normally in this post draft recap I would run through a list of my favorite prospects left on the board headed into the second round. But because this took a couple days to put together, those players have all been drafted. So instead let me list a few of my favorite selections from the later rounds of the draft.

34. New York Giants – Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP

66. New York Giants – Lorenzo Carter, EDGE, Georgia

It’s becoming something of a running joke that I always hate New York’s first round selection, and this year was no exception. I thought it was a major reach to take Saquon Barkley second overall, especially with their need at quarterback. But they made up for this choice somewhat with their next two selections, taking two first round prospects in the second and third round.

Hernandez is exactly what they needed to make Barkley work. He’s a pure downhill blocker, the sort who blows open holes that even backs with Barkley’s questionable vision will see. Tell Barkley to take the ball and run right at Hernandez’s backside, and more often than not it is going to get him to the second level where he will have a chance to use his real talents.

Carter is a dominant and versatile athlete who can become whatever the Giants want for him on defense. If they want him to focus on rushing off the edge, he can become a ten sack a year guy. If they want to keep him off the ball as a linebacker, he can fly all over the field on all three downs. He’s a bit raw, but getting someone of this talent in the third round is a very rare thing.

41. Tennessee Titans – Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College

I’m not as high on Landry as some people who had him going in the top ten, but his ability to explode up the field and bend around the corner should have been enough to make him a first round pick. Injury concerns were part of the reason he fell, but even hobbled by an ankle injury in 2017 he was capable of moments of elite pass rushing ability. The Titans needed a young pass rusher, and they may have just found someone capable of putting up double digit sacks in the second round.

68. Houston Texans – Justin Reid, S, Stanford

I’m not sure why, but there seems to be a weird devaluation of safeties happening in the NFL this offseason. Derwin James fell farther than he should have, and a number of free agent safeties remain unsigned. And somehow, despite not having a first or a second round pick, the Texans added an elite coverage safety who can play either deep in the middle or up in the slot. Reid is a good athlete with plenty of ability and room to grow, and there is no way he should have lasted this long.

83. Baltimore Ravens – Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma

Brown is a risk. There’s no point pretending that his Combine wasn’t a disaster, and his lack of athleticism could doom him. But on film he simply got the job done, and it’s worth a chance in the third round to see if his sheer size is enough to find some success in the NFL. The Ravens don’t have an urgent need on the line, and they can give him a year or two to get into better shape before making up their minds.

130. Philadelphia Eagles – Josh Sweat, EDGE, Florida State

Sweat only fell this far because of injuries, and only time will tell if he can stay on the field enough to take advantage of his tremendous talent. But if that is a real risk, the Eagles are in a good situation to get the most out of him. With Philadelphia’s deep defensive line he won’t have to play more than 20 snaps a game, which will allow him to use his remarkable athleticism without wearing too much on his body or exposing his lack of secondary pass rushing moves.

Superlatives

Best Selection

Los Angeles Chargers – Derwin James, S, Florida State

I’m not really sure why James was available when the Chargers picked. There may have been some injury concerns after a knee injury cost him his sophomore career and hampered him some in his final college season, and I suppose there is some concern about what position he’ll fill in the NFL.

I’ll answer that. He’ll play every position. Deep safety, slot cornerback, box linebacker, whatever his team needs him to do. I had some concerns initially about whether he fits a need with the Chargers, but if the coaches use him properly he’ll have some way to contribute right away. And when he develops in a couple years he can be a true superstar to lead this defense and this team into the future.

Worst Selection

Washington Redskins – Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

James would have been a very good pick for the Redskins. In fact, there were a lot of excellent options on the defensive side of the ball that the Redskins could have addressed. I don’t understand why they felt a need to take another defensive tackle after investing a first round pick in Jonathan Allen last season, and I can’t possibly make sense of the decision to take Payne.

Payne is a subpar athlete who did not produce at anywhere near an elite level in college. He played high and was pushed around in the running game, and he offered very little in the pass rush. He can occasionally get a good initial burst off the line, but he doesn’t play with good bend and struggles to finish once he’s in the backfield. He will top out as a nondescript starter, at a position the Redskins already seem set at.

Best Fit

New England Patriots – Sony Michel, RB, Georgia

Michel may not have the star potential of some of the other picks in the draft, but he can be very good as a complementary piece in the backfield. If you open a hole for him, he’s going to hit it, and he won’t waste time dancing trying to create plays that aren’t there. He’s a good receiver out of the backfield and competent enough in pass protection to play on third downs in the NFL right away.

This is exactly the kind of running back the Patriots need. He may not be as dynamic as Dion Lewis who he’s replacing, but he has the ability to make the most of the opportunities engineered by this offense. He’s the sort of weapon that can immediately elevate an offense with designs on another Super Bown run this year.

Worst Fit

Buffalo Bills – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

Most of the talk about Allen before the draft surrounded his disappointing statistical production in college. He completed less than 60 percent of his passes and threw way too many interceptions, putting together as many highlights looking flustered and helpless as completing lasers down the field. Most of his supporters put the blame on his supporting cast, and the supporting cast was really bad, even compared to the competition he faced in the Mountain West Conference.

The hope was that things would get better when he went to the NFL, but that’s not going to happen. The Bills have possibly the most barren position groups in the league at both wide receiver and offensive line. They also don’t have anyone who could justify keeping Allen on the bench very long, and I would be stunned if he wasn’t starting by at least week six. I still think he has a chance at succeeding, but it’s going to be an uphill battle in Buffalo.

Awards

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Josh Rosen, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Once again there were very few skill position players that went in the first round. Saquon Barkley is likely the favorite, but I think he’s going to have a rough transition period. I don’t see big production from any of the receivers or running backs chosen at the end of the first round, so I’m going to go with a quarterback. And of the quarterbacks, Rosen is the best suited to have immediate success at the NFL level.

The situation in Arizona is not as positive as it initially looks. Obviously having a weapon like David Johnson makes life easier, and Larry Fitzgerald is still a reception eating monster. But they don’t have much else going for them at the skill positions, and their offensive line has failed to come together the past few years. Rosen’s ability to throw receivers open can help fix the first part, but he struggles under pressure, and to have the best success he will have to hope that DJ Humphries can stay on the field and the rest of the line can keep him upright.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Roquan Smith, LB, Chicago Bears

Smith is the sort of player who can fill up a stat sheet. Plugged into the middle of Chicago’s defense, I could see him ending the year with something like five sacks, three interceptions, and three forced fumbles. His athleticism and instincts will create big plays all over the field, for a team that is ready to make a big leap forward.

I could similarly see someone like Minkah Fitzpatrick or Derwin James putting up impressive numbers. Of the first round selections I don’t know if there is an edge rusher who can dominate from day one, but I could see a cornerback like Denzel Ward or Jaire Alexander grabbing enough interceptions to get their name in for this award, even while they give up a few too many big plays over the top.

Odell Beckham Award for Player I Am Most Likely to Be Completely Wrong About

Mike McGlinchey, OT, San Francisco 49ers

An easy choice for this award would be Beckham’s teammate Barkley, who has the upside to tear the league apart and make me look like an idiot. But I’ll go someone a bit less obvious who also ended up selected too high in the top ten. I don’t see a lot of upside in McGlinchey, but in a league running low on competent offensive linemen, simply being okay may be enough to make him an All Pro player down the road. He was up and down at Notre Dame, but he’s the most game ready of any tackle in the draft, and he could prove to be well worth the selection for a 49ers team with dreams of putting together a playoff run this season.