2018 NFC South Preview

We are a month away from the start of the NFL season, which means it is time for me to begin my annual preview series. Personally I wish we could just fastforward to the actual games, but as that is not yet technically feasible, I suppose these posts will give you and me something to do to kill the remaining time.

I’m going to be using the same format as I have over the past few years. In each division I will order the teams based on how I think they will finish this year (though this may change by the time my final predictions come around), and then break the individual teams down. I will list both a best case and a worst case scenario for each team, and then give a player to watch. In the past I’ve tried to highlight lesser known players with the potential to break out, but this year I will probably choose a few more higher profile options (one of the players below is already a three time Pro Bowler).  

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case Scenario:

Looking at this team, it’s hard to find a clear weak point. They have a strong offensive line, a good quarterback, and a varied set of weapons that got even deeper with the selection of Calvin Ridley in the draft. Their defense has been stocked with young talent for a couple years now, and this is the season where they should take a leap forward as a whole. The offense failed to return to the peak of 2016 after losing Kyle Shanahan, but it took until year two under Shanahan to fully click, and they could see a similar jump in efficiency in their second season led by Steve Sarkisian. The Falcons came within a play of knocking out the eventual Super Bowl champions a year ago, and they have the ability to be even better this year.

Worst Case Scenario:

This is going to be a common thing for me to say, so you might as well get used to it. The NFC playoff race is going to be absolutely brutal this year, and even teams that look stacked on paper could end up missing out. A single poorly timed injury, some bad luck at the end of games, and with an incredibly thin margin for error the Falcons could end up on the outside of the playoffs. We’re still putting a lot of faith in a defense that has been below average for years now, and they could find themselves in a lot of shootouts this year, forced to lean on an offense that was frustratingly inconsistent a year ago.

Player to Watch: De’Vondre Campbell, LB

There are so many talented young players on Atlanta’s defense that it’s easy for someone like Campbell to get lost in the shuffle. He doesn’t have the pass rushing skill of Vic Beasley or Takk McKinley, and he doesn’t deliver devastating hits like Keanu Neal. He was a lower draft pick than fellow linebacker Deion Jones. But of all the players on this defense his is the one still most clearly ascending, the one who has the potential to break out as a true star this season. With great length and tremendous speed, he is a major factor against both the run and the pass, and if Atlanta’s defense does take the leap that looks possible, Campbell will likely be a major reason why.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case Scenario:

The Saints had the bounceback season they needed last year, and now they’re headed into 2018 with high hopes of getting the most out of the remaining Drew Brees years. Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in football, and his drop in volume statistics last year shouldn’t distract anyone from the fact that he is still ruthlessly efficient. With young weapons like Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas on offense, as well as an emerging star in Marshon Lattimore on defense, the Saints have the young talent to take a major step forward and make a play for an even deeper push in this year’s playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario:

The Saints are in the same position as the Falcons. They are a very good team, but some good teams are going to end up missing the playoffs in the NFC, and on paper the Saints just don’t look as deep as their division rivals. Tedd Ginn is still starting for them at wide receiver. Their defense has a lot of young players, but their track record is even less proven than Atlanta’s. This team was fortunate with injuries a year ago (outside of the offensive line, where they are actually fairly deep), and they are a couple bad breaks from falling completely out of the playoff hunt.

Player to Watch: Marcus Williams, S

The last we saw of Williams, he was making a terrible play to cost the Saints a trip to the NFC Championship game. His awful whiff on Stefon Diggs has overshadowed what was a strong rookie season, and if it wasn’t for that he would be a key reason for hope for the Saints heading into 2018. But bad plays have a habit of lingering with players (see Rahim Moore, whose similar gaffe in the 2013 playoffs derailed a strong start to his career). Williams has spent the entire offseason hearing about his failure, and if he gets off to a rough start in 2018 it could easily derail the exciting young core being built in New Orleans’s defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case Scenario:

Jameis Winston is suspended for the first three games, but he is still the hope of this team. He was better than people realized a year ago, and if he can clean up some of his errors this offense has the weaponry to be high flying and aggressive down the field. They’re still looking at a very uphill fight towards the postseason, and they are outmatched on paper by basically every team in the NFC. But they have a higher upside quarterback than all but a handful of teams, and that could carry them to a surprise run.

Worst Case Scenario:

The playoffs are a possibility, but I think it’s much more likely that the Buccaneers completely bottom out. Their schedule is brutal, playing in the toughest division in football and facing off against the sneakily feisty AFC South. The pressure is on Winston both on and off the field, and a couple decent performances by Ryan Fitzpatrick could turn into a stupid quarterback controversy. This is the sort of team that could get off to a rocky start and completely spiral out of control, leaving them stuck starting essentially from square one in a year’s time.

Player to Watch: Donovan Smith, T

When Tampa Bay selected Donovan Smith with the second pick in the second round in 2015, he was supposed to be the anchor that locked down Winston’s blind side for the next decade. He was considered a reach at that position, a player who would need a lot of development before being a reliable starter in the NFL, and so far he hasn’t lived up to Tampa Bay’s hopes. The offensive line is one of many questionmarks heading into the season, and Smith is rapidly approaching the point where he either needs to prove himself worthy of the left tackle spot or start looking over his shoulder for a replacement.

Caroline Panthers

Best Case Scenario:

Cam Newton was the league’s MVP just three years ago, and he still has that ability inside him. Now surrounded by the best weapons he’s had at any point in his career, he will be under less pressure to do everything himself. Devin Funchess has developed into a quality starting receiver, Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel offer lots of versatility, and DJ Moore has the potential to develop into a playmaking star. The road to the playoffs is as tough for them as it is for Tampa Bay, but they have a more proven track record on offense and on defense, and it wouldn’t shock me if they find themselves fighting for a wild card spot down the stretch.

Worst Case Scenario:

This team made the Super Bowl in 2015 on the strength of an elite defense and a superhuman performance by their quarterback. In the two years since Newton has failed to reach those same heights, and their defense has slowly withered into Luke Keuchly, Kawann Short, and a bunch of veteran placeholders. A couple of star players can only do so much, and while I don’t think they’ll be one of the worst teams in the league, I could see them once again ending up drafting near the end of the top ten.

Player to Watch: Trai Turner, G

Carolina lost an All Pro guard to free agency this offseason, and now the pressure is on their other Pro Bowler to step up. Turner has been the third piece of one of the best interiors in football for the past three seasons, but with Andrew Norwell in Jacksonville and Ryan Kalil now 33 years old, he is the only reliable piece of a unit that looks extremely shaky. Carolina probably won’t have a good offensive line, and their only hope of competence is for Turner to step up and become one of the best in the league at his position.