2018 AFC North Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case Scenario:

The stars are still there for Pittsburgh, and in the AFC a few stars will be enough to keep them in contention for a first round bye. Ben Roethlisberger has been up and down for the past couple years, but his life is fairly easy, behind one of the best offensive lines in football and distributing the ball to Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. In the best case scenario this offense captures the consistency that has been elusive in recent years, while the defense steps up and reaches the level of competence they’ve hinted at the past few seasons. The Patriots still stand as a roadblock, as does Pittsburgh’s own inconsistency, but this is the same team that was among the class of the AFC a year ago, and there’s no reason to think 2018 will be any different.

Worst Case Scenario:

This team is built around a trio on offense that are all approaching the point in their career when players typically fall off. Roethlisberger is 36, Brown is 30, and while Bell is only 26, he has had a lot of touches going back to his time at Michigan State. If this offense falters even a little, there is no reason to believe the defense will be there to catch them. This unit fell to pieces when Ryan Shazier went down a year ago, and they didn’t find anyone to replace his playmaking role in the middle of the defense during the offseason. They still match up terribly against the Patriots, and they struggled both times they faced the Jaguars last year. The window is closing on the Steelers, and it isn’t out of the question for them to fall to pieces and fail to make the playoffs.

Player to Watch: Stephon Tuitt, DE

The style of defense we got used to seeing from Pittsburgh when they dominated a decade ago asked very little of their defensive ends. They were there to eat up blockers while the linebackers roamed free, leading to players like James Harrison and Joey Porter stacking up sack totals from the edge. But as Pittsburgh has struggled to develop highly drafted edge rushers like Jarvis Jones, Bud Dupree, and TJ Watt, they have been forced to ask more of their down linemen. Cam Heyward stepped up last year with 12 sacks, and Tuitt has the ability to perform at that same level. He needs to stay healthy, and he needs to get better at finishing plays in the backfield. But if he and Heyward can control the line of scrimmage, it will go a long way to covering up the holes in Pittsburgh’s back eight.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case Scenario:

No matter what happens, the Ravens always seem to find quality players to fill out their defensive lineup. Most of the big names are no longer present on this defense, but they’ve put together quite a roster of valuable lesser names, from Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce controlling the front, to Matt Judon rushing the passer opposite Terrell Suggs, to Tony Jefferson and Eric Weddle roaming the back end. The offense is still a catastrophe, but this defense can win them games on its own. That’s not enough to make them real contenders in the AFC, but if Pittsburgh slips up they could push for the division.

Worst Case Scenario:

I talked about the defense above, so now is where I get into the offense. There are some decent pieces here, mostly along the front, though a great deal of that depends on the health of Marshal Yanda. But there’s not much this pass protection can do when they’re blocking for Joe Flacco throwing to Willie Snead and John Brown. Flacco has regressed for several seasons in a row, and he might be the worst starting quarterback in the league right now. Lamar Jackson could offer some excitement, but he isn’t polished enough to command a functioning offense right away. This is still one of the better coached teams in the league, and that will keep the bottom from falling out on them, but any sort of real playoff push is beyond the talent on this roster.

Player to Watch: Alex Collins, RB

In an otherwise dreadful year for the Ravens offense, Collins was a rare bright spot in 2017. After being a fifth round pick by the Seahawks in 2016, he was cast aside only one season into his career and ended up finding a spot at the bottom of Baltimore’s roster. As the season went on he emerged as their feature running back, finishing the year just short of 1000 yards and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. But his effectiveness waned as the season progressed, and over the final three weeks he managed only 148 yards on 50 carries. He enters 2018 as the clear top option on the depth chart, but he’s going to have to be more consistent if he is going to become the central piece of this offense they need him to be. He has the talent to be an explosive weapon, and this is his chance to prove himself.

Cleveland Browns

Best Case Scenario:

I was high on Cleveland last year, and clearly that didn’t work out. But everything that made me buy into them a year ago is still there. They have a lot of excellent young pieces across their defensive front, headlined by Myles Garrett who has the potential to jump into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation if he stays healthy this season. On offense there are concerns about their line after the retirement of Joe Thomas, but they still have three above average players, which is more than most teams in the league can boast. And of course, there is first overall selection Baker Mayfield. I’m not as high on Mayfield as most people, and I think there is a definite ceiling to the player he can become. But when he inevitably takes over the starting role he has the ability to provide an immediate spark, and I wouldn’t rule out a push for a wild card spot this year.

Worst Case Scenario:

The problem for the Browns in 2017 wasn’t with the players on the field (okay, the players on the field were pretty bad, but they weren’t the central issue). The problem was with the coaching staff, and aside from bringing in Todd Haley as offensive coordinator, Cleveland didn’t do anything to fix that issue. They still have a head coach who makes a habit of putting out unprepared quarterbacks and asking them to do far too much. They still have a defensive coordinator so committed to his system that he doesn’t know what his players can do. There are talented young players on this team, but young players need the most guidance from above, and Cleveland’s coaching staff is not capable of giving that to them. They won’t be as bad as last year, but they could come very close, another lost season before they hopefully find a way to take advantage of their promising roster.

Player to Watch: Joel Bitonio, OT

Replacing a legend is never easy, and I have to imagine it’s only harder when that legend was literally the only good player a team had over the past decade. Until an injury knocked him out last year, Thomas was the most reliable player in football, a lockdown pass protector on the blind side who never missed a snap. Bitonio is a quality player in his own right, a very good guard who will now have to face the challenge of moving out to tackle. He will never be Thomas, but he has the ability to become a solid blindside protector, if everything goes right. If it doesn’t, the Browns will have a mess on their hands, as they’re forced to reckon with not having a sure thing at the most valuable spot on the line for the first time in more than a decade, all the while shooting themselves in the foot by moving Bitonio away from the guard position where he excelled.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case Scenario:

It is definitely possible to imagine the Bengals getting back to the level of mediocrity they were at during the first few seasons of Andy Dalton’s career. After letting their offensive line fall to pieces, they worked to restock it this offseason, adding Cordy Glenn via trade and Billy Price in the first round of the draft. Dalton can be a capable quarterback when everything goes right around him, and if they can keep him from being bothered he can move the ball down the field. This defensive line is aging but still very productive, and the secondary has good depth and talent on the outside, led by the emerging William Jackson. A run for the division is probably too much to hope for, but this team has a legitimate shot at a winning record and possibly a wild card berth.

Worst Case Scenario:

Coming off back to back finishes in the bottom third of the league, it would hardly be shocking to see the Bengals repeat. They came very close to firing Marvin Lewis a year ago, but they decided to stick with him, possibly choosing stagnation over forward progress. Dalton has regressed over the past couple seasons, and even with the offseason additions their offensive line still has glaring holes. Last year’s first round pick John Ross is coming off as bad a rookie season as you can imagine, and if he isn’t able to contribute they will find themselves once again lacking depth on the outside. This offense will not be good, and it could very easily be extremely bad, and even though I can’t see their defense bottoming out, I don’t think it has the ability to perform at an elite enough level to carry this team to consistent wins.

Player to Watch: Andrew Billings, DT

Billings was one of my favorite players in the 2016 draft, but it was only a little surprising when he ended up sliding the fourth round. He is a massive space eating tackle who can throw offensive linemen around like rag dolls in the running game, but in the modern NFL a defensive tackle that doesn’t provide a pass rush is only occasionally useful on the field. I thought Billings was better as a pass rusher than most people did, but his debut season in 2017 didn’t back me up (he missed all of 2016 with a knee injury). He has yet to record a sack in his career, and the Bengals need him to step up in a major way in 2018 to prove himself worthy of a starting spot. They have good depth along the defensive front, but depth is only worth so much if you have to pick and choose when to put players on the field.