2018 AFC East Preview

This is New England’s division, and that’s not going to change while Tom Brady still has a functioning arm. At this point the other three teams seem to have accepted this, and have turned their attention a couple years down the road in the hope he won’t be around by then. I don’t know how effective a strategy that is, but it’s not like anything else they’ve tried has succeeded in the past fifteen years, and turning belly up to let the Patriots walk all over them won’t affect the ultimate outcome of this division.

New England Patriots

Best Case Scenario:

I’m sick of writing this section by now. It’s the same thing every year, and I’m tempted to just link to my 2017 preview. The Patriots are the favorites to come out of the AFC, because they are a very good team in a weak conference that has a stylistic edge over all of the teams that might challenge them. Brady won another MVP a year ago, Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all time, and they will coast through the regular season in a laughably easy division, likely securing the top seed in the AFC and an easy route to the Super Bowl. And from there it’s just a matter of having better luck against the team that comes out of the NFC than they did last year.

Worst Case Scenario:

This is also the same as in years past, though potentially with higher probability than before. This section is all about when age inevitably catches up with Brady, because as soon as it does this team is essentially dead. But it is worth noting that they had a rough offseason, losing players like Nate Solder, Brandin Cooks, and Dion Lewis. First round pick Isaiah Wynn is now out for the year, and this team is as thin as at any point in the recent past. There are more flaws here than a year ago, and there has to be some point at which the combination of Brady and Belichick can’t compensate for an otherwise dismal roster. Doesn’t there?

Player to Watch: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR

Patterson is the best kickoff returner in the league, and it seems inevitable that he is going to bust off a big return at a crucial moment in a huge game. The more interesting question is whether Belichick can do what coaching staffs in Minnesota and Oakland failed to, which is find some way to utilize his rare athletic gifts on offense. At this point it seems reasonable to conclude that he is never going to become a technically skilled receiver, but he is still a menace in the open field, and the Patriots have been experts over the years finding ways to get talented playmakers involved in unique roles (Lewis, Shane Vereen, Aaron Hernandez). If they can find some way to get Patterson in space, whether through screens or jet sweeps or tosses out of the backfield, he can bring an explosive element that is otherwise missing from their offense.

New York Jets

Best Case Scenario:

Teddy Bridgewater is the best quarterback on this team, but the combination of age and contract situation means that Sam Darnold is still their long term plan, and even if he doesn’t start opening week it won’t take him long to claim his spot under center. I’m not the biggest fan of Darnold, but he definitely has upside, and if he can harness that playmaking ability he could at least make this offense interesting. The playoffs are likely too much to hope for, but forward momentum has to be the main goal of this season, and I could see this team coming on strong down the stretch as they figure out which players on their roster they can trust to contribute long term and which are better to cast aside as they continue to rebuild.

Worst Case Scenario:

Even with the changes they made this offseason, this team is still very short on talent at nearly every position. This team is starting someone named Eric Tomlinson at tight end, Brandon Shell at right tackle, and Josh Martin at linebacker. Most of this team is still very much replacement level, and no matter who they send out at quarterback, it’s going to be a struggle to compete with actual NFL talent. They’re a couple years away from being a couple years away, and in the meantime it is going to get ugly. Darnold will be beat up, the fans will turn against the team, and in all likelihood Todd Bowles will be gone before the season even reaches its end.

Player to Watch: Quincy Enunwa, WR

The saving grace of the dreary Jets offense a year ago was supposed to be the breakout of Enunwa, until he tore his ACL in the preseason. The former sixth round pick showed a lot of promise as a third receiver in 2016, catching 58 passes for 857 yards, and last year was the year he was supposed to assume the mantle as this team’s top playmaker. Now he is having to fight to earn his spot back on the field, with Jermaine Kearse and Robbie Anderson holding him off for now. But if he shows the same tenacity to fight for tough catches over the middle of the field that he had two years ago, he will quickly become Darnold’s favorite target and will provide a rare spark for this offense.

Miami Dolphins

Best Case Scenario:

The last time the Dolphins had Ryan Tannehill healthy they were a playoff team, and they have the potential to reach that height again. They’ve lost some important pieces on both their offense and their defense, but they’ve brought in some interesting additions as well, and they have a potential breakout star in Kenyon Drake, who has averaged 5 yards per carry in a smaller role over his first two years in the league. With strong performances from developing young players Laremy Tunsil and Xavien Howard, they could put together a stretch of competence enough to compete in the weak AFC.

Worst Case Scenario:

I have no idea what to think of Miami’s offseason, largely because I don’t think they had much idea what they were doing either. They made a decision in trading Jarvis Landry that suggested they were ready to rebuild, then they brought in veteran lineman Josh Sitton. They released Ndamukong Suh for salary cap reasons, then brought in Robert Quinn’s $11.5 million cap hit. They are caught in an awkward position, largely because they don’t know what to make of their starting quarterback. Tannehill was far from a sure thing even before his injury, and with a $27 million cap hit coming up in 2019, they could find themselves in a position where they have to move on this coming offseason. This team has more upside than the other bottom feeders of this division, but they also have the hallmarks of a franchise that could implode as the season goes along, and it wouldn’t stun me to find them selecting at the very top of the draft next year.

Player to Watch: Albert Wilson, WR

The obvious choice for this is Drake, but I already mentioned him above, so let’s select someone else with the potential to break out on their offense. Wilson was never much of a threat in Kansas City, even as they fed him a steady diet of screens in the hope that his quickness could produce big plays. But he’s a better option as a deep threat, and in Miami he finally has a quarterback who will attack with him down the field. He is fighting for that role with the more proven Kenny Stills, and he might be better off challenging Danny Amendola for playing time in the slot. But one way or another he will find his way onto the field, and he’s one of the few unknown quantities on an otherwise bland offense

Buffalo Bills

Best Case Scenario:

Let’s get this out of the way. Whether he starts from opening week or not, this is going to be Josh Allen’s team very soon. There is no way that Nathan Peterman and AJ McCarron hold off a top ten pick, and Allen’s solid performance so far in preseason (and the too harsh criticism he’s received from the media) has already united the fanbase behind him. When he gets in, he will be an unprepared quarterback behind a bad offensive line and throwing to the worst receiving corps in the league. Buffalo’s goal this year shouldn’t be to win games, because that isn’t going to happen. Their goal should be to protect and develop their talented but raw quarterback, and if they can get out of this year with something positive from him they should be happy.

Worst Case Scenario:

Things got pretty grim in the section above, and they aren’t going to get much better here. Buffalo has the foundations of a very good secondary, but outside of that even their defense isn’t much to write home about. Busting on Shaq Lawson has killed whatever hope they had of developing a pass rush, and the lone bright spot on their offense is LeSean McCoy, an aging running back caught up in off the field trouble. This is the worst possible situation to drop a rookie quarterback into, and Allen is the worst possible quarterback to be dropped into it. This season will probably get very ugly very quickly, and for a team that made the playoffs a year ago it will only get worse as the frustration and the failure seeps back into the locker room.

Player to Watch: Lorenzo Alexander, LB

Alexander has been in the league for eleven years and played with four different teams. For most of his career he was known primarily as a special teams contributor, until he broke out in his first season as a regular starter since 2010 after joining the Bills two years ago. On his career he has 24.5 sacks, more than half of which came in his first season in Buffalo, which earned him a fresh new contract with the Bills. Obviously that didn’t pan out, dropping from 12.5 sacks to 3 a year ago. This was about the most predictable outcome possible, but for now he’s still entrenched as a starter on this defense. If they can get even 60 percent of what he was in 2016, it will go a long way towards preventing them from becoming an embarrassment. Of course, I don’t think that’s going to happen, and it seems inevitable that the Bills finish this year near the very bottom of the league standings.