The
AFC West is a puzzle every year, and this season is no different. None of these
teams ever seems to go out and establish itself as the clear dominant force,
and the one that seems closest to—Kansas City—just made a major quarterback
change this year. This division could go a lot of ways, and it will be one of
the most fascinating races to watch over the course of the season.
Los
Angeles Chargers
Best
Case Scenario:
If
I keep betting on the Chargers I have to be right eventually, don’t I? On paper
this team is set up to compete with the best in the AFC. Philip Rivers is
starting to show his age, but he can pull together another couple good years,
especially if the additions they have made to their offensive line can help
keep him clean. As long as Keenan Allen stays on the field he is a top ten wide
receiver, and for the first time in a while they won’t have to lean on their
offense for everything. This defense was very good a season ago, and it should
only be better as Joey Bosa develops and Derwin James slides into a playmaking
safety role. By now we’re used to watching things fall apart for the Chargers,
but I have to believe this year finally breaks their streak and gets them the
division title they’ve deserved for years.
Worst
Case Scenario:
I
don’t believe in curses, but man it’s hard not to buy into it with this team.
At this point Jason Verrett going down probably doesn’t count as newsworthy—his
promising career is likely over—but in the grand scheme of things it’s hard not
to think of this as a “Here we go again” moment. There is some truth to these
concerns, as the Chargers are a team without much depth and built around a
small group of elite level players, many of whom have extensive injury
histories. Allen is always a threat to go down, Melvin Ingram missed a lot of
time early in his career, and the older Rivers gets, the harder it will be for
him to absorb the constant shots he takes behind an unproven offensive line. Already
there was a scare as Bosa limped out of practice with a foot injury (he’s fine,
for now). This team has the upside to push deep into the AFC playoffs, but I
can’t rule out the possibility of another collapse like we’ve seen the past few
years.
Player
to Watch: Desmond King, CB
The
Chargers secondary took a blow with Verrett going down again, but even without
him they are set up to take the leap into the category of elite units. Casey
Hayward is a star, Trevor Williams was excellent as a rookie, and King is the
perfect complement as a nickel cornerback. Like Hayward he can play either in
the slot or on the outside, and he can rotate between cornerback and safety to
play games with James. He’s an excellent special teams player as well, offering
the potential to develop into the sort of depth player I said they were lacking
above.
Kansas
City Chiefs
Best
Case Scenario:
So
much depends upon Pat Mahomes, the second year quarterback they bet everything
on when they traded away Alex Smith. Outside of quarterback this team is loaded
with talent, led on offense by the lethal trio of Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and
Travis Kelce. They have a very good offensive line and several dangerous
playmakers on defense, from Chris Jones up front to Eric Berry returning at the
back end. And if Mahomes can slide in and produce consistent success—to go
along with the expected explosive plays he was drafted to provide—this team is
going to be tough for anyone to beat.
Worst
Case Scenario:
The
Chiefs are deeper and probably better than the Chargers, but I just am not
going to trust a second year quarterback who came out of college as raw as
Mahomes. Andy Reid has proven to be a quarterback master throughout his career,
and I think in the long run he’ll get something out of Mahomes. But there will
be struggles early on, and it will probably cost the Chiefs a few games they
would have won under Smith. It probably won’t be enough to knock them out of
playoff contention, but if the Chargers can keep from falling apart the Chiefs
will have to be nearly perfect to win the division.
Player
to Watch: Reggie Ragland, LB
For
the first time since 2004 the Chiefs will enter the season without their anchor
Derrick Johnson in the middle. It was long past time for them to move on, but
it is still a strange position for them to be in. Fortunately, they may already
have his replacement on their roster. Ragland flamed out after being a second
round pick by the Bills, but the Chiefs did a good job buying low and got
surprising productivity from him a year ago. He’s a thumper in the middle with
unexplored potential as a pass rusher, and he could slot right in and make them
forget all about the gap in the center of their defense.
Oakland
Raiders
Best
Case Scenario:
Derek
Carr struggled a year ago coming off an injury, but with a healthy offseason behind
him he’s ready to pick up where he left off two years ago. Amari Cooper should
bounce back after a 2017 season that was knocked off course by drops, and the
heavy investments they’ve made into their secondary have the potential to pay
off and lift them to at least mediocrity on defense. There are still plenty of
holes on this team, but Jon Gruden is an excellent football mind—there’s a
reason he was the hottest name in coaching for the past decade—and they can
pull together to make a run at a wild card spot.
Worst
Case Scenario:
Carr
was good two years ago when his offensive line kept him clean on every play,
but the slightest bit of adversity has always caused him to melt down as a
passer. This line is not as good as it was in 2016, and their biggest attempt
to improve it—first round pick Kolton Miller—is more of a long term project
than an immediate solution. Their front office spent the past couple weeks
feuding with starting tackle Donald Penn, and they still have had no contact
with their best all around player Khalil Mack. Things are off to a rocky start
for Gruden, and this is the sort of situation that can turn ugly in a hurry.
They need to get off to a fast start, which is why it’s unfortunate their
opening week matchup is against the Rams. A blowout in that game could spiral
into disappointing defeats, and this team could easily find themselves drafting
in the top five next year.
Player
to Watch: Martavis Bryant, WR
Three
years ago Bryant was the most dangerous deep threat in the league. He’s a freak
athlete, with insane speed, excellent quickness, and elite leaping ability. But
a year long suspension and a season riddled with drops ended his time in
Pittsburgh, and now he’s headed to Oakland attempting to rebuild his value. It’s
not off to the best start, plagued with reports of poor practices, an inability
to learn the playbook, and missed time due to migraines. He will always be an
up and down player, but if he can pull things together he has the potential to
add a lightning strike ability to this offense, opening things up for Cooper to work as a technician underneath.
Denver
Broncos
Best
Case Scenario:
On
paper the Broncos look like they got better during the offseason. Losing Aqib
Talib will hurt, but that was a position of decent depth, and they added enough
pieces to make up for it. They drafted a potential immediate impact pass rusher
in Bradley Chubb, who could help elevate their defense back to the elite unit
it was a couple years ago. And of course they signed Case Keenum to a big money
contract, improving at the most important position. It probably isn’t enough to
challenge the teams at the top of this division, but it could give them a whiff
of the wild card race, and with interesting young talent at several positions 2018
could be a stepping stone to more positive results down the road.
Worst
Case Scenario:
What
do we actually think of Keenum? I watched every throw he made for the Vikings a
year ago, and I didn’t come away thinking he was worth $18 million a year. His
numbers should have been far worse than they were a season ago, as he was
repeatedly bailed out by his receiving corps. Denver has good receivers as
well, but they aren’t on the level of Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen, especially
when it comes to winning contested passes. Prior to last year it would have
been a tough debate who was better between Keenum and Trevor Siemian, and if
Keenum doesn’t measure up to what they expect, this is more or less the same
team that ended up drafting in the top five a season ago.
Player
to Watch: Bradley Roby, CB
After
years living in the shadows of Talib and Chris Harris, now is finally Roby’s
time to shine. A former first round pick, he enters a contract year as an
entrenched starter for the first time in his career. He’s received plenty of
playing time over the past few seasons, usually on the outside with Harris
bouncing into the slot, and in all likelihood his role won’t change all that
much this season. But this is all about perception, as most people expect the
Broncos to fall off in the back end without Talib. If Roby can step in and
perform at a high level, he can elevate this defense above where they were a
year ago, and earn a boatload of money for himself in the process.
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