2018 NFC East Preview

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Case Scenario:

Injuries have left questionmarks at the quarterback position, but outside of that this team is still as solid from top to bottom as it was a year ago. They somehow got even deeper on their defensive front, bringing in Michael Bennett to keep a fresh, versatile pass rush on the field at all times. And on an offense stocked with youth, they should only be better as Nelson Agholor, Jay Ajayi, Zach Ertz, and Lane Johnson enter the primes of their careers. If Carson Wentz comes back fully healthy and playing at the level he was at a year ago, this team will very reasonably have their sights set on a repeat of last year’s Super Bowl run.

Worst Case Scenario:

There were reasons to question Wentz even before he went down last year. In 2017 he threw touchdown passes on 7.5% of his attempts, a number that has only been reached ten other times among quarterbacks with more than 400 passes in a season since the merger, almost all of them by future Hall of Famers. This number is going to come down, and his interception total will probably go up as well. A year ago both Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota suffered disappointing seasons after coming off of serious injuries that cost them an offseason of work, and there is plenty of reason to worry that Wentz will be rusty out of the gate. As much as there is to love about this team, they face the same uphill battle as everyone else in the NFC, and it isn’t out of the question for them to start slow and miss the playoffs.

Player to Watch: Sidney Jones, CB

I normally avoid highlighting rookies in this section, and Jones isn’t technically a rookie. He did play in the season finale a year ago, but he contributed essentially nothing to this team after being selected in the second round. This was expected of course, after he tore his Achilles at his Pro Day. At one time viewed as a first round pick, his stock plummeted due to his injury, and if he’s fully healthy now he has the potential to become one of those players we look back at and wonder how the entire NFL let him fall. The secondary is likely the weakest point on Philadelphia’s entire roster, and adding a top of the line talent like Jones almost seems unfair.

Dallas Cowboys

Best Case Scenario:

2017 was a rocky year in Dallas, as a team that looked young and promising was plagued by the controversy around Ezekiel Elliott, the fading athleticism of Dez Bryant, and the regression of Dak Prescott. But the core of this team that was so exciting a year ago is still there, and they have the potential to explode again on offense. Their line is still the best in football, Elliott is still unstoppable as a downhill runner, and Prescott was better than people gave him credit for last year, even if he didn’t live up to the hype of his rookie season. Their ability to compete in the division will ultimately depend on what the Eagles do—a Philadelphia team firing at even 80 percent is above the best level Dallas can reach—but they have an outside shot to snag a wild card spot.

Worst Case Scenario:

This team still has no proven receivers, and they are even more barren on the defensive side of the ball. Their attempts to add young talent to this defense have mostly gone awry, and unless this is the year that Jaylon Smith, Randy Gregory, and Byron Jones finally emerge as stars, this is going to be a well below average unit. As good as their running game is, it can’t put up 30 points a game on its own, and they will have to hope to get out to early leads to dictate the game on a regular basis. If they find themselves in a lot of situations where they need Prescott to drop back and throw while their defense stops the other side from racking up points, things could get ugly in a hurry. This team is closer to a top ten pick than they are to the playoffs, and a competitive division race seems almost out of the question.

Player to Watch: Rod Smith, RB

Elliott is going to be the featured piece of this offense, but they should also give some playing time to their other running back out of Ohio State. After converting last year from the fullback position due to the suspension of Elliott, he became a useful piece in the Cowboys offense, carrying the ball at least six times in each game from week 11 to week 15. He finished the season averaging 4.2 yards per carry and added more than 200 through the air, earning himself a spot second on the depth chart. The Cowboys love to keep the ball on the ground, and with their weaknesses at receiver they are going to have to rely even more on the running game this year. Two of the past three seasons they’ve employed the running back who has led the league in carries, but it might be time to exercise some caution with Elliott. Smith can take over some duties in the middle of games, spelling their young star and keeping him fresh from the beginning to the end of the season.

Washington Redskins

Best Case Scenario:

Despite making an offseason quarterback change, it isn’t hard to envision what this team is going to be. Alex Smith is a stylistically different player from Kirk Cousins, but the expectations you have of him are pretty much the same. He can make plays to win you games, but you’re probably better off not asking him to. Surround him with talent and he can excel, and the Redskins do have some talent to work with. Their offensive line is excellent as ever, and it should bounce back after being decimated by injuries in 2017. Their defense remains solid without many clear stars (though I will ride the Ryan Kerrigan bandwagon to the end of the Earth), and they should be competitive against most teams they face. I don’t think they have playoff upside, but if a lot of things break right, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Worst Case Scenario:

The worst case scenario for the Redskins is pretty much the same as their best case scenario. This isn’t a team with a lot of volatility, and they are going to finish somewhere between five and eight wins. Barring injuries, the worst I can see from them are struggles to win tight games, as their receivers can’t get open and Smith struggles to fit the ball into tight windows down the field. This team isn’t good enough at anything to be able to afford becoming one dimensional, and if the opposition can dictate the flow of games, things could get ugly.

Player to Watch: Paul Richardson, WR

There are a few players on this team who might have the ability to break out. Josh Doctson and Jonathan Allen have flashed in the rare moments they’ve been able to find the field early in their careers. Chris Thompson is an interesting weapon, though they will miss the solid performance of injured rookie Derrius Guice. But if there’s one player who I point to as having real upside, it would be the free agent addition out of Seattle. A former second round pick, Richardson’s early career was derailed by injuries, and after he returned to the Seahawks he found himself in the unenviable position of a deep threat for a team that couldn’t keep its quarterback clean long enough to throw down the field. But he still possesses incredible athletic ability, and over the past couple seasons he’s made a habit of making sensational, almost impossible contested catches. In a larger role in Washington, he might be able to harness his abilities into more consistent performance, giving the Redskins a true threat on the outside.

New York Giants

Best Case Scenario:

New York’s defense fell apart in 2017, but two years ago it was one of the best in the league, and many of the most important pieces remain. Landon Collins is a young star, Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison are useful pieces along the front, and they have the ability to bounce back to what they were in 2016. If that happens, this team will try to grind out tough wins on the ground, feeding rookie Saquon Barkley behind second round pick and absolute behemoth Will Hernandez. With Odell Beckham back to provide a big play spark, this team may be able to score just enough to get them close to the .500 mark.

Worst Case Scenario:

This offense is all flash and no consistency. Beckham is a top five receiver in the league, but he doesn’t churn out consistent yardage the way someone like Antonio Brown or DeAndre Hopkins does. He relies on explosive moments, and those don’t come frequently enough to sustain an offense. Barkley is a similar type player, the sort of running back who will pick up two yards on each of his first nine carries then break one for seventy yards. This can be a formula for an effective offense, but it also leads to regular three-and-outs, putting a lot of pressure on a defense that hasn’t demonstrated an ability to consistently shut down the opposition in the past year.

Player to Watch: Ereck Flowers, OT

The question with Flowers isn’t whether he can help an offense. We know he can’t. The question is whether the Giants can find a way to hide him so he doesn’t devastate the offense. The addition of Nate Solder allowed them to move their former first round pick to right tackle, but that doesn’t mean all that much in the NFL these days. There are a lot of great pass rushers on both sides of the line, and Flowers will be just as outmatched at his new position as he was at his old. The question becomes whether they trust Solder enough on the backside to throw everything towards the front, leaving a team’s best pass rusher matched up one-on-one while they help Flowers with the secondary option.