2018 AFC South Preview

Houston Texans

Best Case Scenario:

No team will be hungering for full health heading into 2018 more than the Texans. After getting only eight games out of JJ Watt over the past two years, they’re hoping he can get back to his old game wrecking ways. Even if he’s only 80 percent of his former self, that’s still an All-Pro caliber player that completely changes the defense around him. And of course, if Deshaun Watson performs like he did during his seven game run as the starter last year, the Texans will run away with the division, and in the best case situation they have the depth of talent to push their way into the upper echelon of the AFC.

Worst Case Scenario:

When breaking down the NFC South I mentioned that the NFC playoff picture is going to be an absolute bloodbath. Naturally, the AFC is the other side of this coin. Even if the Texans struggle, they are deep and varied enough to remain in the hunt deep into the season, competing against mediocre teams for one of the six playoff spots. Watson could struggle, Watt could be a shell of himself, and they could blow a few close games, and at the end of the year they will still have a chance. This team has a reasonably safe floor, and I don’t really see a circumstance where they truly bottom out.

Player to Watch: Bruce Ellington, WR

The Texans have been searching for a complementary threat to DeAndre Hopkins ever since he joined the team. Most people have pointed to first round pick Will Fuller as the guy, but the quiet addition of Ellington last season gives them another candidate. Ellington was a constant breakout threat in San Francisco who never seemed to put it together, and at this point it’s probably not worth counting on him to contribute. But the elite speed and quickness are still there, and at only 26 years old it would be a major boost if he can finally live up to his potential.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best Case Scenario:

Jacksonville is just as loaded on defense as they were a year ago, and they will likely only get better as many of their young players enter their primes. If they can keep stifling the opposition, they can control games offensively on the ground, pounding the ball with Leonard Fournette behind an offensive line that on paper looks like it could be one of the best in the league. I still don’t have faith that they can repeat last year’s deep playoff run, but they can absolutely win the division again.

Worst Case Scenario:

Jacksonville’s strategy is the sort of thing that works until it doesn’t. When everything is rolling well, they can keep the ball on the ground and out of Blake Bortles’s hands. If they get off to an early lead, they can dictate the flow of games, letting their defense tee off and force the opposition into mistakes. But this is a team with very limited paths to victory in every game, and things can fall apart very quickly for them. A few mistakes by their quarterback, less luck taking the ball from the opposition, and they could quickly find themselves playing catchup, a situation they don’t have the talent or the skill to succeed in.

Player to Watch: Blake Bortles, QB

A former top three pick and four year starter at quarterback, Bortles is hardly under the radar. But he is one of the most fascinating players in the league, and at this point I’m not sure anyone has a good grasp on what to think of him. A year ago at this time he looked like a dead man walking, and was even moved to the second team for one of Jacksonville’s preseason games. Yet at the end of the season he was given a contract extension that entrenches him as the starter for this year and likely next as well. The strange part is, he was still a bad quarterback last year, but he was bad in a way that didn’t kill the team. I don’t think anyone believes that Bortles is going to become even an average starting quarterback in the league, but with the rest of the talent on this roster, the Jaguars don’t need average. They just need someone who won’t constantly shoot themselves in the foot, and at this point the jury is still out on whether or not Bortles is that guy.

Tennessee Titans

Best Case Scenario:

This team made the playoffs a year ago despite running an offense that seemed specifically designed to limit Marcus Mariota. Mariota’s numbers were bad a year ago, but his performance was better than it looked, and a new, better scheme could open things up for him. A healthy Corey Davis can do more than just produce an occasional highlight, and this team could take a major step forward on the offensive side of the ball, while continuing to play solid defense that lets them compete for the division and make another playoff appearance.

Worst Case Scenario:

This was a weird team a year ago, and despite making the playoffs I still don’t feel like they were a particularly good team. They had a solid offseason, and I feel like they are better than a year ago, but I also feel like every team in their division got better as well. I think the Titans are a middle of the pack team, and in the AFC that could be enough to get them into the playoffs. But I think it’s more likely that they end up drifting out of the playoff picture as the year goes along. They still don’t have much elite talent, and there are enough holes (wide receiver, pass rush, interior offensive line) that I worry they won’t be able to compete with the rest of rising AFC South.

Player to Watch: Dion Lewis, RB

The running back job in Tennessee is held down by Derrick Henry, a physical monster who specializes in pounding the ball between the tackles. A year ago he was complemented by DeMarco Murray, who specializes in pounding the ball between the tackles. The Titans offense under Mike Mularkey was notoriously bland, and the addition of Lewis suggests that they are looking for a way to change that. Lewis brings versatility as an outside runner and a receiver out of the backfield, and if they can find a way to get him to contribute they will go a long way towards making their offense more varied and more flexible.

Indianapolis Colts

Best Case Scenario:

Andrew Luck is head and shoulders above every other offensive player in this division, and if he can come back at full strength he is enough to carry this team to a division title. TY Hilton is still a very good receiver on the outside, and they invested heavily in their offensive line in the draft, which should pay dividends in both the running and the passing game. Their defense still has a long way to go, but it just needs to avoid being a disaster for them to be competitive in the AFC playoff picture.

Worst Case Scenario:

Luck hasn’t played in almost two years, and he’s still only throwing footballs on a limited basis in training camp. If he isn’t full strength this season, or even if he’s a little rusty to the start the year, the Colts are going to have to lean on the rest of their roster. And there really isn’t much there to lean on. This team is simply bad at pretty much every position, and even in the weak AFC they are working with an incredibly thin margin of error. They need Luck to be the superhuman he was in the past, and if he’s not that guy they could be one of the worst teams in the league.

Player to Watch: TJ Green, S

Green was a late riser in the draft in 2016 based on an impressive athletic profile, running a 4.34 forty and jumping 10’9” in the broad jump. He was considered a project, but with elite athleticism and the ability to play either safety or cornerback, the Colts felt he was worth the selection late in the second round. Through two years that selection hasn’t panned out, as he played only about a third of their defensive snaps a year ago. On a team devoid of talent, they need some players deep on their depth chart to step up, and even though he hasn’t showed it at the NFL level yet, Green could be one of those guys.