The
first round is in the books, and it was actually kind of by the books. There
were few trades, and only a couple major surprises. I’ll try to have more to
say tomorrow, but here are my immediate thoughts.
1.
Cleveland Browns – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Well, the Browns proved they can at least
keep a secret. After weeks of debate between Sam Darnold and Josh Allen, it was
only in the past couple days that Mayfield’s name started popping up in
connection to this pick. Of the top five quarterbacks I had Mayfield ranked
fifth, not seeing much real upside in him. He thrived in college throwing to
wide open receivers on simple reads, and when he was forced to go through his
progressions his accuracy disappeared. In the right system and in the right
circumstances he might be able to turn into a productive starter. Of course, he
ended up in Cleveland, which is pretty much the exact opposite of right system
and right circumstances.
2.
New York Giants – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
I thought for sure that the Giants would
go with Sam Darnold here. I wouldn’t have been a fan of that pick, but I would
have liked it better than this one. Barkley is a sensational athlete, and he
can do some excellent things in space, but as a pure running back behind the
line he is below average. He shies away from contact, ignores holes trying to
bounce the play to the outside, and creates a lot of negative plays by refusing
to take three to four yard carries. Three or four years down the road he could
be a great player, but you don’t take a running back in the top five for three
or four years down the road.
3.
New York Jets – Sam Darnold, QB, USC
Like the first two picks this is one I
wouldn’t have made, but I can at least understand it. Darnold has tremendous
physical tools, with excellent mobility and a live arm. He’s inconsistent
reading the field, and his mechanics are an absolute mess in both the upper and
lower body, and when he inevitably sees the field this year it will be very
ugly on a team without much of a supporting cast. But if they stay patient with
him, he could be a genuine star.
4.
Cleveland Browns – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
This was the first real shock of the
night. I’d heard some talk of Ward making his way into the top ten, but I
mostly dismissed it. He is nowhere near this good as a prospect, lacking the ball
skills or the physicality of a truly elite cornerback. This was a position of
need for the Browns, but they had lots of positions of need, and if they felt
they were set at pass rusher and didn’t feel like drafting Bradley Chubb, they
would have been better off going with someone like Derwin James or Roquan Smith
instead.
5.
Denver Broncos – Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State
This pick makes more sense than the ones
above from a value perspective, but I still don’t really understand it from a
need point of view. Pass rush is the one part of the team where Denver seems
pretty much set, with Von Miller, Shane Ray, and Shaquil Barrett coming off the
edge. I’m not as big a fan of Chubb as most, but he has the potential to be a
fringe Pro Bowl player, and it’s hard to pass up on adding that to a defense
(despite what Cleveland may believe).
6.
Indianapolis Colts – Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
Nelson has some stuff to clean up, and he’s
not the immediate All Pro player some have claimed him to be. But it’s hard to
fault the Colts for finally adding some talent to their beleaguered offensive
line. Nelson can be physically overwhelming in the running game, and once he
fixes his occasionally sloppy hands as a pass blocker he can be exactly what
the Colts need to keep Andrew Luck from being battered to pieces again.
7.
Buffalo Bills – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
The Bills had no quarterback, and they
pretty much had to make this move. They managed to get up from the 21st
selection into the top ten without giving up their other first round pick,
which will allow them to address one of the other glaring holes on their
offense. I like Allen, but this isn’t a great place for him to go. He falls to
pieces quickly under pressure, and the Bills will have to add something to an
offensive line that just lost their two best starters.
8.
Chicago Bears – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
The Bears are slowly putting together a
really good football team. Smith is a burner in the middle of the defense,
excelling racing sideline to sideline and dropping back into coverage. He can
be a outmuscled in the running game, and putting him on the field will ask a
lot more of Eddie Goldman and the other Bears defensive linemen. But in the
modern league a linebacker being pushed around is a reasonable tradeoff to make
for someone with the potential to be a star.
9.
San Francisco 49ers – Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
Joe Staley is nearing the end of his
career, and the 49ers need someone to protect their big investment in Jimmy
Garappolo. The problem is that college football really isn’t churning out NFL
ready offensive tackles. This is too high for McGlinchey to go, but he’s a
reasonable choice if you’re going to reach for a tackle. There are better ways
the 49ers could have gone with this, but I don’t hate it that much.
10. Arizona Cardinals
– Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The best quarterback in the draft is the
fourth off the board. Not only is Rosen the best quarterback, he’s the best
player period. He’s a phenomenally accurate passer, with wonderful footwork and
an arm that constantly surprises you with its power and velocity. The only real
thing lacking in his game is mobility, both making plays outside the pocket and
maneuvering within it. But he has the ability to be an above average
quarterback from the moment he steps on the field, and him versus Sam Bradford
will be a very interesting quarterback battle to watch.
11. Miami Dolphins –
Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
Fitzpatrick is a very skilled and very
intelligent player who can contribute in a lot of different roles. He’s at his
best as a slot cornerback, but he can be effective in the box as a linebacker
or deep as a safety. I would have gone with the similar but more athletic
version of Fitzpatrick in Derwin James, but it’s hard to hate this selection.
12. Tampa Bay
Buccaneers – Vita Vea, DT, Washington
I like Vea more than most, but I don’t
understand this selection. James was the perfect fit for this team, and the
fact that he was still available after they traded down five spots should have
had them jumping with joy. But Vea has the ability to be an immediate
contributor as a run stuffer, and it will be interesting to see how he develops
as a pass rusher. If he can develop his athleticism into an effective pass
rusher, he can be well worth this pick. But there’s a risk he will only ever be
a run stuffer, which will render him only a part time player.
13. Washington
Redskins – Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
It’s hard to make sense of this. I heard
that the Redskins loved Vea, so when he went to Tampa Bay did they just decide
to say screw it and take the next defensive tackle on their board? Except that
Payne is nothing like Vea as a player. He’s actually a lot like Jonathan Allen,
the Alabama defensive tackle they took last year, except nowhere near as good.
He’s not particularly athletic, he’s not an effective finisher in the
backfield, and he shouldn’t have been a first round pick.
14. New Orleans Saints
– Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA
I’m not sure what to think of this. Davenport
was my highest rated edge rusher, and I think a couple years down the road he
could turn into a real star. But with an aging Drew Brees, the Saints really
aren’t in position to play for a couple years down the road. And if they are
trying to restock to ease their transition into the future, how can they
justify giving up a first round selection next year to jump this high? Once
again it seems like the Saints have no plan, and even adding an extremely
talented player can’t make up for that.
15. Oakland Raiders –
Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
I haven’t studied Miller thoroughly, but I’ll
try to get back to you tomorrow.
16. Buffalo Bills –
Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
The Bills have no one at wide receiver or
on the offensive line, and it’s hard to justify them not giving Josh Allen some
help. But if they were going to go defense, it’s hard not to be intrigued by
this selection. Edmunds is extremely raw, but he is a rare physical specimen,
with impressive size and insane athleticism. He’s only 19 years old, and he
improved as his last season in college went along. He has the potential to be
one of the best defensive players in football if he’s given time to develop.
17. Los Angeles
Chargers – Derwin James, S, Florida State
This isn’t the biggest need for the
Chargers after adding some very good young players to their secondary last year,
but I’m not going to fault them for grabbing the best non-quarterback in the
draft with the seventeenth pick. James is a fantastic athlete who is only going
to get better with experience, and he has the flexibility to plug in wherever
they want him on this defense.
18. Green Bay Packers
– Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
Alexander is a good player, and in Green
Bay’s secondary he will likely start right away. He isn’t particularly big, and
he struggles against receivers who can jump over him. He will likely be at his
best playing in the slot, where his quickness can match in space against
smaller receivers. Keeping him towards the middle of the field will make it
easier to protect him over the top with a safety, where his aggression is less
likely to burn his defense. There were better cornerbacks on the board, but
this isn’t a terrible pick, considering need and upside.
19. Dallas Cowboys –
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
I’m still not sure what to make of Vander
Esch, but I’m pretty sure this is too high for him. He plays slow on the field,
and he’s not as physical as you need someone of his size to be. But he flashes
moments of excellence, and his testing at the Combine shows more promise than
he did on the field. I wouldn’t be stunned if this pick worked out, but at this
point I wouldn’t count on it.
20. Detroit Lions –
Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas
Another offensive linemen I haven’t
studied yet. I’ll try to get on it tomorrow.
21. Cincinnati
Bengals – Billy Price, C, Ohio State
All indications are that Price is making
excellent progress coming back from the chest injury he suffered at the
Combine, and if that’s the case this is a fantastic pick. Price is a dominant
run blocker who wins with his hands on almost every play, bending defenders
backwards and moving them out of the hole. He absorbs contact well in the
passing game, and if he was a better athlete he’d be up there with Quenton Nelson
among top interior offensive line prospects I’ve scouted.
22. Tennessee Titans –
Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
Evans isn’t a great athlete, but his tape
was some of the most fun I watched this year. He’s the hardest hitter in the
draft, able to sidestep blockers and explode downhill to demolish running
backs. He’s also surprisingly effective coming off the edge as a pass rusher,
fitting two needs for the Titans defense. There are a lot of interesting tools
here, and it will be fascinating to watch how the Titans work to develop a role
for him on the defense.
23. New England
Patriots – Isaiah Wynn, OT/OG, Georgia
I didn’t really understand the hype around
Wynn when I watched him on film. He isn’t particularly athletic, and he isn’t
particularly strong. He can get some good leverage playing down the field, but
he doesn’t drive people out of the play. He’ll be a competent starting lineman,
but I don’t see a lot of upside to this selection.
24. Carolina Panthers
– DJ Moore, WR, Maryland
The first receiver off the board is also
the most interesting. Moore isn’t as polished as several of the other options
in the draft, but he is a phenomenal athlete with tools that could translate to
the next level. It will take him a while to iron out his inconsistencies
running routes and playing at the point of the catch, but he will make several
insane athletic grabs this year that will leave fans salivating about his
development in the future.
25. Baltimore Ravens –
Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
All these linemen and tight ends I didn’t
get around to watching. Looks like I’ve got some work to do tomorrow.
26. Atlanta Falcons –
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
I could maybe understand the Falcons
adding another weapon to their offense in the second or the third round. But
this high, I kind of feel like they needed to address one of the holes on their
defense. Ridley fell more than people expected, but he’s not talented enough to
justify this pick. He’s fast but he’s undersized, and he’ll likely never be
more than a complementary deep threat.
27. Seattle Seahawks –
Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State
Wow, this is a player I never once saw
mentioned in the first round conversation. So once again I’m going to have to
defer until tomorrow.
28. Pittsburgh
Steelers – Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech
Okay, now they’re just trying to ruin my
Friday. I’d heard some buzz that the second Edmunds brother was moving into the
first round mix, but this still caught me off guard, especially with Justin
Reid on the board.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
– Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
It’s an interesting strategy to look at
the strongest part of your team and decide to draft another player there. But
defensive line is a good place to build depth, and Bryan will have the ability
to develop as a situational player for a year or two. He has tremendous first
step burst, and if he can round out the rest of his game he can be a real star
by the time he hits his prime.
30. Minnesota Vikings
– Mike Hughes, CB, UCF
This isn’t a huge immediate need for the
Vikings, and Hughes will probably not see the field much as a rookie. But like
the defensive line, the secondary is a good place to build depth, and this give
the Vikings more flexibility if they want to move on from Trae Waynes or
Mackenzie Alexander going forward. The only issue I have is that this doesn’t
make the Vikings better this year, which should have been the goal for a team
that has invested so much in this season.
31. New England
Patriots – Sony Michel, RB, Georgia
Michel was my top running back in the
draft, and this is excellent value at the end of the first round. He is an
excellent downhill runner who will happily take the easy gains given to him in
New England’s offense, and he can contribute in the passing game as well. The
only real concern with him is ball security, which is a notorious sore spot for
Bill Belichick. But the talent is enough to overcome that and to add an extra
spark to New England’s offense.
32. Baltimore Ravens –
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
When this pick came up I knew someone was
going to trade up to grab Jackson. I did not expect that team to be Baltimore,
but I don’t hate the decision. They’re stuck with Joe Flacco for two more years
at least, but I expect sometime this season he will find himself on the bench.
Jackson is a playmaker of unlimited upside, and even if he doesn’t live up to
his potential as a passer, his abilities as a runner are more than enough to
power an offense.
