Highs and Lows

Six weeks is a long time in the NFL. By this point in the season we have a good idea of each team's capabilities and what to expect from them going forward. The Chargers, Broncos, Seahawks, 49ers, Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Cardinals, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, and Eagles are good. The Jaguars, Titans, Raiders, Jets, Buccaneers, Rams, and Redskins are terrible. And the Bears, Saints, Browns, Bills and Texans are all consistently middle of the pack.

For those of you who aren’t into counting, I just listed 24 of the league’s 32 teams. But that still leaves eight teams out there, eight teams that are difficult to make sense of even after five or six games. These teams have reached tremendous highs and have seen wretched lows, and it is very difficult to get any sense of where they are going from here. Below I try to answer two questions about these teams. Why are they so inconsistent? And which version are we going to see over the rest of the season?

New York Giants

High Point: 45-14 Victory over the Redskins

Low Point: 27-0 Defeat by the Eagles

The Giants sit atop this list because both of their marquee games have come on national television. They trounced the Redskins three weeks ago on Thursday Night Football thanks to Kirk Cousins’s normal turnover woes and an explosive performance by the unheralded Larry Donnell. This past week, they appeared against division foe Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football and laid an absolute egg, becoming only the second team this year to fail to score a single point in a game (also the second from New York. Go Jets!) These wild results are not outliers this season. They were demolished by the Lions, and they easily beat both the Falcons and the Texans.

Of the two performances, I think the loss to Philadelphia is more of an outlier. The Eagles have struggled all season, and in a lot of ways I think the Giants were just unfortunate to be in their way when they finally turned it on. The struggles of their offensive line are a concern going forward, but the unit did not look anywhere near that terrible in previous weeks. The line isn’t the strongest point of the team, but they will offer Eli Manning competent protection going forward, which should be enough to allow their offense to function.

The loss of Victory Cruz hurts, but he wasn’t particularly productive this season prior to his injury. Odell Beckham has looked very good in his limited playing time, and hopefully he will be able to fill Cruz’s role. I don’t think this team has what it takes to make the playoffs in the NFC, but they won’t have to suffer through many more humiliations like last Sunday night.

Carolina Panthers

High Point: 24-7 Victory over the Lions

Low Point: 38-10 Defeat by the Ravens

I was firmly on the anti-Panthers bandwagon at the start of the season. Among other things, I wrote, “This team just does not have the talent to make the playoffs” and “They don’t belong among the top twenty teams in the league.” I was hardly alone in this perspective, and so far Carolina has been one of the season's pleasant surprises. They sit alone atop the NFC South (easily the most perplexing division in football right now) with wins over quality opponents like Chicago and Detroit and a tie against the Bengals. Kelvin Benjamin is the front runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, filling the hole at wide receiver everyone was pointing to at the beginning of the season. If everything keeps up for them, they are going to make my predictions look very stupid.

All that said, I’m not ready to jump on their bandwagon just yet. Their most impressive performance of the season came against the Lions, in a game that only got out of hand because Detroit missed two early field goals. They’ve made it this far thanks to the incredible performance of Cam Newton, who has been one of the five best quarterbacks in the league so far this season. He may or may not be able to keep up this level of performance, but the bigger concerns are on the other side of the ball.

Carolina’s defense was one of the best in the league last season, but over the past four weeks they have allowed three opponents to score more than 35 points. With Greg Hardy out indefinitely they have been incapable of pressuring the quarterback, leaving their weak secondary exposed for opposing quarterbacks to pick apart. And unless they make some major, unexpected improvements, they will have plenty of opportunities to be torn apart in the coming weeks. Their next five opponents are the Packers, Seahawks, Saints, Eagles, and Falcons. I wouldn’t be stunned to see them go 1-4 over that stretch and drop out of the playoff picture entirely.

Atlanta Falcons

High Point: 56-14 Victory over the Buccaneers

Low Point: 41-28 Defeat by the Vikings

After Week Three it looked like Atlanta was one of the best teams in the league. They beat the Saints to open the season, thrashed the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football, and their only loss was to the undefeated Bengals. The three weeks since then have taken a wild turn in the other directions, three straight defeats at the hands of the Vikings, the Giants, and the Bears. In that time their defense has looked utterly incapable of stopping anybody, and their offense seems to consist entirely of Julio Jones with an occasional cameo by Antone Smith.

I think we all know that this isn’t the team that dominated Tampa Bay. Their defense has never looked that dominant, and no one was surprised when Teddy Bridgewater and Jerrick McKinnon managed to shred them a week later. If this team is going to win, it is going to come in shootouts like their victory over New Orleans in Week One. As long as their offense can keep scoring they can compete with anyone in the league, but over the past few weeks their offense has looked nearly as bad as their defense.

There are still reasons to have faith in this offense. Julio Jones has been one of the three best receivers in football so far this season, and as long as he stays healthy he will continue to dominate. Their offensive line is riddled with injuries, but first round pick Jake Matthews has looked very strong at left tackle (his performance against Chicago aside.) Their receivers dropped seven passes this past week, a number that just isn’t sustainable. They will get better on this side of the ball, but it won’t be enough. Their running game isn’t going anywhere, and they no longer have the safety blanket of Tony Gonzalez to give their offense versatility. They’ll win a few more high scoring contests over the rest of the season, but they can’t do enough to get themselves into the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings

High Point: 41-28 Victory over the Falcons

Low Point: 42-10 Defeat by the Packers

If you want to talk about inconsistent teams, the Vikings belong at the top of the list. In their two victories, they have won by an average of 20.5 points. In their four defeats, they have lost by an average of 20 points. This team either gets blown out, or it blows out its competition. Their closest game of the season was a 20-9 loss to the Saints, a game that began with two first quarter touchdowns by New Orleans and was never really in serious contention.

Part of the reason for their inconsistency in performance has been the inconsistency of their roster. The Vikings are the only team in the league so far to have started three different quarterbacks. This wouldn’t have been as big of a problem at the beginning of the season, when their identity was all about handing the ball to Adrian Peterson and letting him do all the work. But Peterson has likely played his last game in a Vikings uniform, and this team is now struggling to figure out what their identity is. Can Bridgewater throw the ball around like he did against the Falcons? Or will they need their improving defense to take the next step to consistently shut down opposing offenses?

The Vikings are a very young team, and they will get better as the season wears on and they start to figure things out. Dynamic rookie Jerrick McKinnon looks like he’s already taken the primary running back role from the plodding Matt Asiata. The fullback has nearly disappeared from their offense as they have started playing more three receiver sets. And on the defensive side of the ball they are putting more responsibility on dynamic young players like Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, and Anthony Barr. If these players step up, they can be a team that can stick in any game. If not, they will likely see a lot more blowouts before the season ends.

New England Patriots

High Point: 43-17 Victory over the Bengals

Low Point: 41-14 Defeat by the Chiefs

Panic swept through the streets of Boston following New England’s loss to Kansas City, and hope surged through the rest of the league. Tom Brady’s gradual decline over the past couple seasons looked like it might be more than just a bad stretch, and everyone was wondering if New England’s run of success had finally come to an end. Fans across the league geared up for another beatdown the following Sunday against the undefeated Bengals, and in true Patriots fashion, they cruelly executed all rumors of their demise. Two straight weeks, two straight victories, two straight solid performances by Tom Brady to silence the doubts.

The Patriots aren’t what they used to be, that much is clear. They still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and those two alone are probably enough to earn them a playoff spot in the AFC. But everywhere else their team is still very lacking. Their offensive line and wide receivers offer them no help, and their defense has been a major disappointment to those who were expecting it to be one of the top units in the league. Darrelle Revis has been inconsistent, Vince Wilfork is a shell of himself, and they will now be without Jerod Mayo for the rest of the season. This team has not drafted well in recent years, and the shortage of young talent is beginning to bite them. The end of the Patriots is coming, just not this year.

Miami Dolphins

High Point: 33-20 Victory over the Patriots

Low Point: 34-15 Defeat by the Chiefs

What a difference a couple of weeks can make. Three weeks ago the Dolphins were coming off back to back losses against the Bills and the Chiefs, and they were drowning in turmoil. There were rumors that Ryan Tannehill was going to end up on the bench, and several people were speculating that Joe Philbin wouldn’t last through their bye week. Fortunately, playing the Raiders solves all problems. They earned a dominant victory to head into their bye week, and they followed that up with a close loss to the Packers, a game they should have won. No one in Miami is particularly happy about the way that game ended, but they aren’t panicking in the way they were after their loss to the Chiefs.

Miami is a better team than their record indicates. The losses against the Bills and the Chiefs should not have happened, and they could very easily be sitting at 4-1 at this point. Their pass rush has been as fantastic as ever, and they have been effective at slowing opposing rushing attacks. Their defense still has a few issues to iron out, but this can be one of the better units in the league. It is still difficult to assess what their victory over New England means, but there are no questions about their defensive performance in the second half of the game, one of the most dominating stretches any defense has had this year.

The Dolphins are a better team than they’ve shown so far, but not by enough to get them into the playoffs. Their remaining schedule isn’t particularly intimidating, but they’ve blown too many opportunities early in the season to have a legitimate chance. I expect we will see a more even performance by them over the rest of the season, and I don’t think we’ll have to worry about Tannehill being benched anytime soon. They’ve stabilized, but their ceiling is still very well defined.

Kansas City Chiefs

High Point: 41-14 Victory over the Patriots

Low Point: 26-10 Defeat by the Titans

Kansas City got off to a miserable start to the season with an embarrassing loss against the Titans, who have since revealed themselves to be one of the worst teams in the league. At that point—with games upcoming against the Broncos, Dolphins, Patriots, and 49ers—it was reasonable to wonder if they would make it to their Week Six bye without a single victory. Two straight dominant victories over the Dolphins and the Patriots on the back of their defense and Knile Davis helped them salvage their season, and they even managed to hang reasonably close to Denver and San Francisco.

This was a playoff team last year, mostly thanks to the ease of their schedule. Of the AFC playoff teams last year this is the one I thought most likely to fall off, and right now I don’t know whether or not to back off of that prediction. Their defense is strong, even with injuries at every level. Jamaal Charles is healthy and should be ready to get back on track, and Alex Smith will play better after some early season turnover woes. Their remaining schedule isn’t particularly daunting, with games against the Jets, Bills, Rams, and two against the Raiders.

The Chiefs are better than I expected, and I think they will finish the season with a .500 record. At the beginning of the season I might have thought this was enough to make the postseason in the AFC, but the Ravens, Bengals, and Chargers are all better than I expected. Kansas City had a lot of good fortune in getting the Patriots at their lowest point, and I can’t see them pulling off that sort of upset again this season. They will have to do so if they want to make the playoffs, with games remaining against the Seahawks, Broncos, and two against the Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers

High Point: 37-19 Victory over the Panthers

Low Point: 31-10 Defeat by the Browns

The Steelers have been the premier example of an inconsistent team over the past three seasons. In addition to last week’s blowout loss to Cleveland, they struggled to beat the Jaguars and lost in the last minute against Tampa Bay. But their victory in Carolina remains one of the most dominant performances of the season, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. This team looks great on paper, with one of the best QB-WR-RB trios in the game to go along with a defense loaded with big names. The Steelers are capable of beating anyone in the NFL, which makes their consistent struggles against mediocre competition so frustrating.

Part of their struggles in recent weeks can be explained by injuries. Ike Taylor wasn’t playing very well this season before he broke his arm, but he was still a starter at the thinnest position on their team. Jarvis Jones, last year’s first round pick, looked strong against the Panthers before dislocating his wrist, an injury that will keep him out for at least the next five weeks. They lost rookie Ryan Shazier as well, but it looks like he will return in time for their next game. His presence should help improve their shaky defense, even though replacement Sean Spence has played well over the past three games.

The much bigger concern is on the offensive side of the ball, where something just seems off. This team should not have trouble scoring the ball, not with one of the top five wide receivers in the league, the NFL’s second leading running back, and an offensive line that has improved greatly over the past couple seasons. And they have been moving the ball well. This offense rarely bogs down with three and out drives, but they never seem to be able to sustain anything past midfield. They are terrible in the red zone, and they seem incapable of picking up a third down shorter than five yards. These issues can, and probably will, be ironed out, but I don’t see them being able to make a run in the incredibly competitive AFC North.