Defense From Offense

 

We are five weeks into the NFL season, and no undefeated team remains. This last happened in 2010, but before that you have to go all the way back to 1987. But while we don’t have any undefeated teams remaining, we have plenty with only a single loss. Denver, Seattle, Arizona, and Cincinnati are all 3-1, while San Diego, Dallas, and Philadelphia have a leg up at 4-1.

(In a fun, if not surprising coincidence we can construct a decent sized chain out of these teams. Denver’s only loss was to Seattle, whose only loss was to San Diego, whose only loss was to Arizona, whose only loss was to Denver. But I digress.)

Most of these teams are no major surprise. Seattle and Denver faced off in the Super Bowl. Philadelphia and Cincinnati both won their divisions, and Arizona managed to win 10 games despite missing the playoffs. The other two are more interesting cases. San Diego snuck into the playoffs last year thanks to the weakness of the AFC, and Dallas has been sitting on mediocrity for the past three years. No one expected much of anything from the Cowboys this season, and many (including me) thought the Chargers would take a step back. Yet here they are, five weeks into the season, tied atop the league.

These two teams had similar outlooks coming into the season. Both were expected to be strong on offense, but the general belief was that their abysmal defenses would hold them back. Dallas allowed more yards than anyone else in the league last season, and they lost their two best defensive players DeMarcus Ware (free agency) and Sean Lee (injury). San Diego’s defense was possibly even worse, and they managed to make the playoffs only thanks to some good fortune on the offensive side of the ball. If their offense regressed at all, it made sense to expect their team to struggle.

Yet five weeks into the season, both these defenses rank in the top ten in points allowed per game. San Diego actually leads the league while also being in the top ten in yards allowed per game. Dallas isn’t performing quite as well on that side of the ball, but simple competence has been enough to make a unit everyone expected to be dismal look fantastic. How is it that these two teams have salvaged such success on this side of the ball?

Before I go any further, I need to address one major factor: the competition. So far San Diego has matched up with Arizona, Seattle, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and the Jets while Dallas has played San Francisco, Tennessee, St Louis, New Orleans, and Houston. These are far from the best offenses in the league. In fact, most of these teams rank among the worst. Strength of schedule undoubtedly plays a role in the success these defenses have found, but it cannot be the entire explanation. Both teams managed to shut down extremely dangerous offenses—New Orleans for Dallas and Seattle for San Diego. They are doing something right, even if it isn’t as right as the numbers would make it appear.

Playing defense in the NFL is a very difficult thing these days. 2013 was only the third season ever in which the average team scored more than 23 points per game, and we’re on pace to break that mark again this year. Offenses are becoming more complex, and players on the field are becoming smarter at exploiting defensive schemes. The rule changes in recent years have only made it more difficult for defenses to operate, giving away first downs even when an offense has stalled. We have seen an absurd number of come from behind victories this year (culminating with Cleveland’s victory over Tennessee last Sunday, the largest road comeback in NFL history) because defenses can no longer be relied upon to get the opposing offense off the field.

Based on the talent of their rosters, San Diego and Dallas should be among the biggest victims of defensive lapses. And while neither defense is particularly good, they have found a way to effectively stop the other team from scoring. In the current NFL, the best way to stop an opposing offense is to keep them off the field. For the Chargers and the Cowboys, the most crucial piece of their defense is their offense.

San Diego and Dallas currently rank third and fifth respectively in time of possession. For the Cowboys it isn’t difficult to see why. The easiest way to control the clock is to run the ball, and so far this year Dallas has been the best rushing team in football. They are tied with the Giants for the most rushing attempts per game, and they are second only to Seattle in rushing yards per game. Even when they’ve fallen behind in games, such as against the 49ers and the Rams, they haven’t abandoned the run. The offensive line is the strength of their team, and by continuing to lean on their running attack they are able to shorten the game and keep their defense off the field.

San Diego’s success is a bit more difficult to figure out. Last year they followed a formula similar to the one Dallas is using this year, feeding the ball to Ryan Mathews down the stretch in order to protect their defense. But until this past week they found absolutely no success on the ground, and they are still last in the league in rushing yards per attempt. They haven’t been able to sustain rushing success, but they have been able to keep the clock running by being efficient with their passing game.

Since the firing of Norv Turner and the hiring of Mike McCoy the Chargers have completely changed their style of offense. Under Turner they were a team that constantly stretched the field in search of a big play. With McCoy’s arrival they switched to a scheme of short, quick passes, and Philip Rivers has flourished. He led the league by completing 69.5% of his pass attempts last year after never completing more than 66% over his first seven years as a starter, and he is currently leading the league with a completion percentage of 70.3%. He’s done this by sharply cutting how far downfield he targets his passes. This year he sits at 12^th in the league in air yards per attempt. This doesn’t sound like a big deal, but it is a significant step down for a player who was in the top six of this category five times over his first seven seasons. Most of San Diego’s passes are high percentage throws, limiting incompletions and keeping the clock moving.

These two teams keep the clock moving while they’re on offense, but this doesn’t do them much good unless they can sustain drives. This is where these two teams really shine. Last season the Chargers managed to stay on the field thanks to a third down conversion rate of 47.39%, good for second in the league. Many people expected to see some regression from this astonishingly high figure, but through five weeks they sit third in the league with a conversion rate of 53.16%. Sitting at the top of the league are the Cowboys, who are managing to convert 55.56% of their third down opportunities this season. Both these numbers are unsustainable (only three teams in the past ten years have broken 50% over a full season) but as long as they continue to keep drives alive at an above average rate they should have no trouble keeping their defenses off the field.

It isn’t difficult to see the effects these strategies have produced. Both these teams rank in the top four in fewest plays run by the opposition per game. This is how the Chargers are third in yards per game allowed while being seventh in yards allowed per play, and how the Cowboys are 21^st in yards against per game despite being last in the league in yards allowed per play. San Diego’s defense may actually be good (though, again, look at who they’ve played) but Dallas’s certainly isn’t.

So now that we’ve seen how these teams have found success defensively, the question we have to ask is: will it continue? A 4-1 record is a great way to start a season, but it is by no means a guarantee of a playoff berth. As I mentioned above, many of the things these teams have done are unsustainable. Their third down success will fall off, their competition will become more difficult, and their defenses will likely regress as the season goes on. This is inevitable, and the only question that remains is whether it will cost them a chance at the playoffs.

We’ll start on the defensive side of the ball. So far San Diego has had a significantly better defense than Dallas, and of the two they are the team I would expect to keep up some level of their performance. Dallas’s improvement on the defensive side has come mostly from good fortune and ball control. They are still last in the league in yards allowed per play, and that is without facing any truly dangerous competition.

San Diego is in a bit different situation. They have benefited from all the same things as the Cowboys, but there were reasons before the season to suggest that their defense might improve, reasons that have held up so far. Dwight Freeney has returned after missing most of last year and has been surprisingly effective as a pass rusher. Free agent signing Brandon Flowers looks like he has returned to his pre-2013 form, and rookie first round pick Jason Verrett has been solid as their third cornerback. This defense has received a major infusion of talent since last year, and there is no reason to suspect that talent will fall apart down the stretch. Their defense will probably regress some, but even an average unit should be enough to carry the Chargers to the playoffs.

I’ve mentioned the schedules throughout this piece, and that is something else we have to look at going forward. These two teams have played garbage offenses for most of the season, and surprisingly it doesn’t appear they will face stiffer competition going forward. San Diego still has two games against the Raiders and Chiefs each, and no one in the NFC East looks like they have a particularly menacing offense. The Chargers still have a couple games against the Broncos, and Philadelphia could bounce back enough offensively to put pressure on Dallas. But I don’t think these teams have to worry about their units falling apart based on the competition.

But even with all that said, these teams are getting by thanks to their offenses, and offense is where we need to look if we want to figure out how their seasons will develop. Both the Cowboys and the Chargers have found success this year due to a player on their offense performing at a ridiculous level. If the season ended today, Philip Rivers would be the MVP. DeMarco Murray is probably the only offensive player who would be able to make a case against him, thanks to five straight 100 yard rushing performances to start the season.

These players have carried their teams this far by playing well above expectations, a level they won’t be able to sustain the rest of the season. Rivers is a known commodity, and even his best performances of five years ago never touched his dominance this season. He will slip back somewhat, though he will remain one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Murray is a bigger questionmark. He has never played a full 16 game season before, and the 130 carries he has received so far will only lead to more health issues as the season wears on.

Murray and Rivers will fall back to reality sooner or later, and it will be up to their offenses to compensate for this. Again, I am more optimistic about San Diego’s chances. Dallas still has one of the best offenses in the league, and their passing game with Tony Romo, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant is enough to provide a high quality attack. But all these facets are already performing at peak level, and there is nowhere for them to go but down. Compare that to the Chargers, who have put together a high powered offense despite the total absence of a running game. If they can get their rushing attack clicking—whether with Brandon Oliver or the return of Ryan Mathews—they will be able to weather Rivers’s inevitable drop in productivity.

Dallas and San Diego are surprises at the top of the league thanks to their ability to control the ball. They are not the only teams to try this—Indianapolis, Detroit, and Pittsburgh are other teams with mediocre defenses who have a winning record thanks to being in the top ten in time of possession—but so far they have found the most success. That success is unlikely to continue for the Cowboys, but everything I see points to San Diego remaining among the top teams in the NFL.