2017 NFC East Preview

After addressing one of the most predictable divisions last week with the NFC East, we move across the conference to look at one of the most up in the air. Mathematically there are 24 different orders in which this division could finish, and I can't say that any one of them is unlikely. I don't feel confident that any of these teams will be extremely good, and I don't feel confident that any will be extremely bad. There are a wide range of possibilities for every team involved, and it will likely take most of the season for anything to become clear.

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

Best Case:

Dallas excelled last year thanks to the addition of a pair of rookies, and Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott should only be better in their second years. The pending suspension of Elliott certainly hurts, but this team is deep enough offensively to weather the storm until his return. Last year they succeeded despite not really getting Dez Bryant involved in the offense, and if he can contribute more this year they can take another step forward.

Dallas’s defense is intriguing, though it is going to be more limited by suspensions than their offense. David Irving played really well last year, and losing him for the first four games will limit their already thin pass rush. But with Byron Jones developing in the secondary and the potential return of Jaylon Smith—the most talented player in the 2016 draft class—they have young talent to elevate them above what people expect. The absences across their roster could keep them from reaching the same heights they did a year ago, but as long as their roster is intact by the time the playoffs come around they have the potential to win a championship.

Worst Case:

Dallas succeeded last year by not asking a lot of their rookie quarterback. Prescott was extremely good in 2016, but his role was limited. He rarely attacked down the field, and he played behind an offensive line that kept him upright as well as any in the league. Handing off to the NFL’s leading rusher was another bonus, and with Elliott out for six weeks he’ll suddenly become the focal point of the offense. All signs are that he is capable of being this player, but until we see it there is still plenty of uncertainty.

Dallas wasn’t as good as their record a year ago indicates. Their defense was a major problem, and they didn’t do a whole lot to improve it during the offseason. They are going to need contributions from first round pick Taco Charlton, a big ask of any rookie. The margins are thinner for the Cowboys than for most 13-3 teams, and as talented as they are it’s easy to imagine them slipping back and finishing around 8-8.

Player to Watch: La’el Collins, OT

The story of Collins remains fascinating for so many reasons, but right now he is interesting on a purely football level. After a strong rookie season at left guard, injuries stole his starting spot from him a year ago, forcing him to watch from the sideline as the sixth man on the league’s best unit. But with the departures of Doug Free and Ronald Leary, he will now have a chance to move into the starting lineup again, this time likely at right tackle.

Collins is one of the most talented offensive linemen to enter the league in the past few seasons, and he has the ability to excel playing on the outside. He is a quick footed athlete with tremendous strength, and on just about any other team he would have a chance to protect the quarterback’s blind side. His career has hit a few more rough patches than anyone expected, but if he can play up to his potential it’s possible that Dallas’s offensive line just got even better this offseason.

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Case:

The Eagles are one of the widest variance teams in the league, and it will likely all swing on the arm of their quarterback. Carson Wentz showed some good things his rookie year, and he has the potential to take a significant step forward in year two. He finally has a quality wide receiver to work with in Alshon Jeffery, and that will bail him out of a lot of the trouble he found himself in last year.

However the offense fares and however the season goes, Philadelphia’s defense is going to be extremely good. They added Chris Long and Timmy Jernigan to a front that already had Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox, and then they went out and stole Ronald Darby from the Bills to fill their glaring hole at cornerback. This defense has the potential to be the very best in the league, and I can’t imagine them finishing outside of the top ten. And with any real improvement from their offense, this team can push the top competition in the NFC.

Worst Case:

Wentz showed some good things last year, but he showed far more bad. He rarely attacked down the field and he struggled when he did so, regularly launching desperate prayers that could have turned into far more interceptions than the 14 he threw. Adding Jeffery helps, and Torrey Smith might be able to bounce back, but the skill positions on this offense are still incredibly barren.

Philadelphia is going to struggle to score the ball. They received better than can be expected contributions from their defense and special teams a year ago, and there is bound to be some regression. Adding LeGarette Blount will help in the red zone, but they don’t have much of a running game outside of that. And they are placing a lot of faith on Jason Peters to hold down the left side, a big ask for a 35 year old. As good as this defense is, the offense still might not be enough to get Philadelphia within spitting distance of the postseason.

Player to Watch: Nelson Agholor, WR

A first round pick in 2015, most have already written Agholor off as a bust after two seasons that produced only 59 catches for 648 yards. And while he certainly hasn’t done anything to indicate he’s worth the high pick, reports coming out of training camp suggest there might still be some hope within the organization.

Agholor never had the athleticism to win consistently on the outside, and the free agency additions made by the team have allowed them to slide him down to play in the slot. He impressed enough in training camp for them to part ways with productive slot receiver Jordan Matthews, and now Agholor has a chance to reward their faith. I wouldn’t put much money on it, but if he can develop into the player people thought he was coming out of USC, he could be the depth weapon the Eagles desperately need on their offense.

New York Giants

Best Case:

New York revamped their defense a year ago in free agency, and it paid off big time. Olivier Vernon contributed 8.5 sacks and solid run defense. Damon Harrison ate the middle of the field, while Janoris Jenkins hauled in three interceptions on the outside. But their biggest step forward came with the improvement of Landon Collins from a mediocre safety to a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in his second season. And while Harrison and Jenkins are getting up there in years, Collins is young enough to play at just as high a level this year, and to make this defense one of the best in the league again.

The Giants have added weapons to their offense, which isn’t really something they were lacking. Odell Beckham is obviously a top five receiver in the league, and they are expecting big things from Sterling Shepard in his second year. Adding a pair of big bodies in Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram will only make things easier for Eli Manning, as will the ascension of Paul Perkins to the starting running back role. Perkins averaged 4.1 yards per carry in limited time during his rookie year, capped off with a 100 yard performance in Week 17. This offense has the potential to be significantly better than they were a year ago, and if their defense can continue to play at a high level the Giants are a contender in the division.

Worst Case:

The Giants made the playoffs a year ago, and they lost because of Eli Manning. Obviously other players did their part, but no one deserves more blame for their pitiful performance against the Packers. Manning was inaccurate, unreliable, and looked every bit a quarterback who simply doesn’t have it anymore. And while his performance in the regular season was better, it was still very up and down, enough that the Giants have to seriously start worrying about their quarterback.

The offensive line is still a mess, and they did very little to improve it. Ereck Flowers is the presumed starter at left tackle, despite being humiliated every time he steps onto the field. Their cadre of weapons doesn’t matter if they can’t keep Manning upright long enough to get the ball to them, and their defense can only do so much to bail out an offense that keeps surrendering big plays. New York’s offense may be better, but the regression coming for its defense could be even worse, resulting in a net negative for the team’s fortunes.

Player to Watch: Weston Richburg, C

The edges of New York’s offensive line have been a catastrophe for years, but the interior was the biggest disappointment a year ago. They couldn’t open lanes in the running game, and they repeatedly allowed pressure into Manning’s face, giving a quarterback who normally manages the pocket well very little room to move.

Richburg is the strength of this offensive line, but he didn’t play like it in 2016. He was excellent two years ago, but he struggled mightily last season. During the spring it came out that he had played most of the year with torn tendons in his hand, an injury that has taken the blame for most of his struggles. If that is the case, his return to form will be a major boost to the biggest weakness on this team.

Washington Redskins

Best Case:

Washington’s strength is along the offensive line, and that hasn’t changed. They make life easy for Kirk Cousins, and they allow the team to plug whatever running back they want behind them. The reliability of this unit covers up a lot of other flaws on the offense, and it will keep them from ever being worse than an average unit on that side of the ball.

The Redskins aren’t loaded with talent, but they have very few glaring weaknesses either. They have a talented group of receivers, a top notch tight end, and a functional quarterback. Ryan Kerrigan is one of the most underappreciated defenders in the league, Josh Norman is an above average cornerback, and they shored up their defensive line by selecting Jonathan Allen in the first round. On paper this team doesn’t look like much, but they are the sort that can coalesce into something more, a solid team without an obvious flaw. And in a division where everyone else is clearly lacking something, that may be enough to keep them alive.

Worst Case:

Cousins was bailed out a lot by his receivers over the past couple years, and now both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon are gone. Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson have potential as replacements, but together they really only have one season of NFL experience. If things start going bad for Cousins, he’s the sort of quarterback who will really start to press (especially with his lingering contract situation). So far the best thing you can say about him is that he protects the ball, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him among the league leaders in interceptions this year.

This defense has very little talent, and the only real addition they made during the offseason was Allen. He’ll help a defensive line cobbled out of castaways from the rest of the league, but it isn’t enough to overcome the holes elsewhere. Preston Smith took a step backwards a year ago, and with the injuries to Trent Murphy and Junior Galette their pass rush remains very one dimensional. And if they continue to treat Josh Norman like a shut down cornerback who can be trusted on an island, they are going to continue to be burned, this year in a way their offense can’t keep up with.

Player to Watch: Jamison Crowder, WR

The most continuity Cousins will have with any of his receivers is Crowder, his versatile weapon out of the slot. A fourth round pick in 2015, Crowder has slid comfortably into the third receiver role for two years now, catching 126 passes for 1451 yards and nine touchdowns over his first two years. Last season he added a punt return touchdown and averaged 12.1 yards per return.

Crowder fits the traditional mold of the quick, underneath slot receiver, but he is more dangerous down the field than most players in that role. He can beat defenses over the top as easily as he can beat them across the middle, and his tracking skills while the ball is in the air are a match for his agility with it in his hands. The loss of their top two edge receivers will hurt, but the presence of Crowder in the slot will smooth the transition as they get Pryor and Doctson up to speed.