2017 AFC North Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Case:

The Steelers are the class of the AFC North again, and it really isn’t that close. They have the best quarterback in the division and the most proven offensive line. They have the best wide receiver and the best running back in the entire league, and they’re getting back a dynamic secondary threat in Martavis Bryant. Their defense is still a work in progress, but it has a lot of young talent, and it was playing at a high level down the stretch a year ago.

The question isn’t whether the Steelers can win this division. The question is whether they can knock off the Patriots when the two teams inevitably meet in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has struggled for years against New England, and in the AFC Championship last year they were hopelessly outmatched, with a defensive scheme that allowed Brady to pick them to pieces. They need to radically change the way they attack New England on defense, and they need to hope their offense can stay on the field together. If both these things happen, they are likely the only team in the AFC with a realistic shot of knocking off the Patriots.

Worst Case:

Things always seem to break down for Pittsburgh, and it’s entirely possible it will happen again this year. Both Le’Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger have struggled to stay healthy throughout their careers, and after a year away from football it’s hard to know what to expect from Bryant. This offense never quite hit its full stride a year ago, and they could run into the same problem again if they can’t maintain continuity.

Pittsburgh’s defense has been a problem for years, and strong play aside down the stretch in 2016, this still isn’t a unit that jumps off the board at you. Their secondary will be overmatched by almost every receiver they go against, and their edge rushers are a pair of athletic freaks with little proven success. Teams have thrown the ball all over the Steelers for years, and it could easily happen again. It likely won’t be enough to knock them out of the playoffs, but this team’s expectations are the Super Bowl, and falling short of that again would be a disappointment.

Player to Watch: Alejandro Villanueva, OT

Villanueva is the sort of story that almost seems like it was manufactured by the league as a marketing ploy. He played college football for Army, where he rotated between defensive end, offensive tackle, tight end, and wide receiver, before serving his mandated time in the military. Spending a total of 20 months in Afghanistan, he earned a Bronze Star for rescuing wounded soldiers, then decided to resume his football career after he was discharged.

This is an incredible story, and it became even more incredible when he moved into the starting lineup for the Steelers a year and a half ago. Now entrenched at left tackle, Villanueva has weathered some early bumps to become a reliable blind side protector. Much of the credit deserves to go to offensive line coach Mike Munchak, who has crafted Pittsburgh’s front into one of the best in the league. Villanueva is his greatest success, a raw athlete with limited background and an incredible story who has become a major contributor on one of the best teams in the league.

Cleveland Browns

Best Case:

Somebody should probably check to make sure I’m okay, but I think the Browns have a chance to make the playoffs this year. The wild card race in the AFC is extremely thin, and the Browns have added a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. They paid big money this offseason to add JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler, potentially elevating their good offensive line into one of the best in the league. They added Kenny Britt at wide receiver (he had over 1000 yards last year catching passes from Case Keenum and Jared Goff) and drafted David Njoku to play tight end, giving them two more dangerous offensive weapons. And let’s not forget first overall selection Myles Garrett, who has the potential to contribute double digit sacks right off the bat.

As with most teams, the fortunes of the Browns are going to come down to their quarterback. They smartly decided to turn things over to rookie DeShone Kizer, giving them another spark of upside. There are some major concerns about Kizer’s accuracy, but his intelligence and physical tools make him ready to start in the NFL from day one, and if he can clean up his main glaring flaw he can lead this team to nine or ten wins.

Worst Case:

A lot has to go right for the Browns to pull this off, and things rarely go right for the Browns. In all seriousness, Cleveland is a very young team, and young teams often face more rough patches than you’d expect just looking at the talent on their roster. The players they have can produce at a very high level, but most have little experience in the league, and the margins for error in the NFL are slim enough that these first and second year players can be burned by a few mental mistakes here and there.

Even with the talent they’ve added, there are still major holes along Cleveland’s defense. The star power is there with Garrett, and they have a good veteran cornerback in Joe Haden, but outside of that this is a unit that is very unproven. Players like Jabrill Peppers, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Danny Shelton have the ability to become major contributors, but I’m less optimistic about their success than I am about the more veteran offense. There is a way things work out for the Browns to take a leap forward this year, but there are ten ways for them to fall flat on their face once again.

Player to Watch: Duke Johnson, RB

Johnson was a favorite of mine coming out in the draft in 2015, and going into his third season he is in prime position to break out. Over his first two seasons he had only 737 yards rushing (on a respectable 4.2 yards per carry), but he surpassed 500 yards receiving in each season as a threat out of the backfield. With Cleveland’s increased stable of weapons he will have even more opportunities, especially if they turn the offense over to Kizer.

Hue Jackson is one of the most creative offensive minds in the league, and word out of training camp is that he’s taken a shine to Johnson. This year Johnson won’t be confined to just operating out of the backfield. He will likely spend time split out at wide receiver, presenting difficult matchups for defenses as he uses his quickness and receiving skills to overwhelm linebackers and safeties. Johnson may not be a feature running back, but his versatility makes him the ideal weapon for a clever offensive system.

Baltimore Ravens

Best Case:

Baltimore is one of the best managed and best coached organizations in the league, and it’s hard to ever count them truly out. They did a good job filling a major hole at wide receiver when the Chiefs oddly decided to release Jeremy Maclin, and they added a good piece to their secondary by picking up Tony Jefferson.

Baltimore isn’t going to be a fun team. They can win some games nasty, bolstered by a strong run defense centered around Brandon Williams and CJ Mosely. And if they get immediate contributions from rookies like Marlon Humphrey and Tyus Bowser, this defense could return to the top of the league. It doesn’t look like they’ll get much from their offense, but they may not need much, if they can scrape together a few ugly wins and make it into a wild card spot.

Worst Case:

Baltimore is good at stopping the run, but against the pass their defense could be in serious trouble. Their secondary would have looked fantastic three years ago, but Brandon Carr and Jimmy Smith haven’t performed well in recent years, and Eric Weddle is 32 years old. Even more troubling is the pass rush, where the only proven contributor is the 34 year old Terrell Suggs.

Baltimore hasn’t drafted well in recent years, and their attempts to bolster depth through free agency have mostly resulted in players like Mike Wallace. This was a team that was built on homegrown talent surrounding a serviceable quarterback, and without that talent we are seeing just how mediocre Joe Flacco is. He struggles under pressure, and he doesn’t make enough tight window throws to bail out a shaky receiving corps. And there is little real hope on the horizon, with almost no young talent on offense and a contract that will keep Flacco around at least through the end of the 2018 season.

Player to Watch: Austin Howard, OT

Baltimore’s offensive line was looking very shaky after the departure of Ricky Wagner this offseason. Marshall Yanda is still a beast, and Ronnie Stanley looked promising in his rookie year, but with very little skill position talent on offense they need a line that is far above average. And going into the season it looked like average was the best they were going to do, before fortune handed them a gift.

Howard isn’t going to replace Wagner by any means, but he is at least competent, which might be enough to elevate this unit to the level it needs to be. Howard was a key part of Oakland’s elite offensive line last year, before injuries stifled him and ended his stint with the team. The Raiders chose to cut him loose a couple weeks ago, and the Ravens snapped him up in an instant. Howard is the sort of player a team like Baltimore desperately needs, a reliable veteran who can plug into one of the many holes on their roster.

Cincinnati Bengals

Best Case:

Cincinnati isn’t going to make the playoffs this year. They snuck into first round playoff losses for several years, but their roster has slowly eroded since then, removing their greatest strengths and leaving them with little surrounding Andy Dalton. This team needs to start looking at 2018, and the best that can come from this year is seeing growth from the young talent already on their roster.

There is talent here, even if it hasn’t shown it yet. 2015 first round pick Cedric Ogbuehi is probably a lost cause, but their second round selection in that draft Jake Fisher still has potential manning the right tackle spot. They have good depth in the backfield, but rookie Joe Mixon is by far their best option, and getting him on the field to develop as a runner and receiver will offer another dynamic playmaker for the future. The defense is a bit more of a concern, but Carl Lawson has pass rush upside, the sort of thing that can shine in an otherwise miserable five or six win season.

Worst Case:

It’s amazing how bad a team can get when they constantly let their best players walk in free agency and make no effort to replace them. A year after watching their offense suffer when their number two and number three receivers moved on, the Bengals were content to let their two best offensive linemen follow them out of town. Kevin Zeitler just got $60 million from the Browns, and longtime Bengal Andrew Whitworth is now holding down the blind side for the Rams. Cincinnati’s biggest addition was Kevin Minter, a middle of the pack linebacker who was anonymous in Arizona.

There is no way this team is better than they were a year ago, and a year ago they finished with a top ten draft pick. Their draft picks over the past few years have shown little promise, and they are stubbornly insistent on avoiding free agency. For the first time in his career Dalton is going to have to carry a mediocre supporting cast, something he is not equipped to do. The Bengals are likely a bottom five team this year, and while we should no longer be shocked by Marvin Lewis’s survival skills, I have to believe this is his last year in Cincinnati.

Player to Watch: Tyler Boyd, WR

First round pick John Ross is going to get all the attention, but Cincinnati’s best hope for a young wide receiver to contribute is second year player Boyd. Boyd doesn’t have the physical gifts of Ross, but he is a much better fit for what Dalton and this offense need. While Ross gives them another down the field option in addition to AJ Green, Boyd will excel at attacking the underneath parts of the defense, far easier and more reliable throws for their shaky quarterback to make.

Boyd’s rookie season wasn’t spectacular, but he did haul in a respectable 54 passes for 603 yards. More importantly, he converted targets into catches at a higher rate than Green, Brandon LaFell, or even Tyler Eifert. He should have a bigger role in the offense this year, with a skillset that perfectly complements the other receivers on this team and gives the Bengals the sort of depth of receiving targets that they lacked a year ago.