The AFC South has been the laughingstock of the league for five years now. Last year Houston won the division despite being a bottom ten team in the league. These teams have been very bad for a very long time, and picking a winner in this division has been a tossup among mediocrity every year I've done this.
This isn't going to completely turn around this year. But it's on its way, and for the first time I find myself seeing something to like in every team in this division. There still aren't any obviously good teams, but I'm not sure there are any obviously bad teams either.
Indianapolis
Colts
Best
Case:
The
Colts are a very strange case. Outside of the quarterback position they have by
far the worst roster in the division. But their quarterback is so much better
than every other team’s that they are going to at least have a chance to
compete. Andrew Luck is a top five quarterback in
the league, and already in his young career he has shown the ability to carry a
mediocre team to the playoffs. Two down seasons for the Colts shouldn’t trick
us into believing he can’t do what he did over his first three years in the
league.
Things
are tight among the top three teams in the AFC South, and I put the Colts
number one because I believe they have the most upside. Of these teams,
Indianapolis is probably the only one with realistic Super Bowl aspirations.
Their roster has turned over from a couple years ago, and it has the ability to
make a major leap forward, with a young and talented offensive line and a
defense pieced together from intriguing veterans. I think a deep playoff run is
probably too much to hope for, but if everything comes together it’s not out of
the question.
Worst
Case:
Indianapolis
has the potential to be better than they look on paper, but they still look
pretty mediocre on paper. They have a handful of exciting players like TY
Hilton, Vontae Davis, and Jonathan Hankins, but much of their roster is filled
with miscellaneous veterans like Frank Gore, Margus Hunt, and Sean Spence. This
is a team cobbled together out of whatever they could find on the street, and
we shouldn’t expect it to be more than the sum of its pieces.
Luck
will keep them competitive, and I don’t see them truly bottoming out. In a weak
division they’ll be competitive to the very end of the year, but they could
fall short down the stretch just as they did in 2016. I don’t have much faith
in Chuck Pagano, and in the long run another disappointing season may be what’s
best, allowing them to toss this regime aside and start anew around their star
quarterback.
Player
to Watch: Jack Mewhort, OG
Over
his first couple seasons Luck was hit more than any other
quarterback in the league, and after a couple years letting this happen the
Colts decided they should probably invest in their offensive line. Last year
they used their first, third, and fifth round picks on offensive linemen, all
of whom saw significant time on the field as rookies.
But
their best lineman is still their left guard Mewhort. A second round pick in
2014, he was a starter from the moment he joined the team, and a quality one at
that. He isn’t at the level of the top guards in the league, but he is
comfortably above average, which sets him apart from almost every one of his
teammates. Injuries limited him to ten games last season, but with him fully
healthy and partnered with the young trio, the Colts have the opportunity to
find genuine competence on the offensive line for the first time in Luck’s
career.
Tennessee
Titans
Best
Case:
The
Titans were a team that surprised me a year ago. I expected them to be among
the worst in the league, but they put together a strong season, nearly winning
a playoff spot by the end of the year. A strong bounceback year from DeMarco
Murray got most of the attention, but the true reason for Tennessee’s success
was the growth of their quarterback. Marcus Mariota has been put into a
relatively poor situation for a young quarterback, but he has thrived despite
it, quickly emerging as one of the future stars of the league.
The
Titans this year have the opportunity to put even more on Mariota’s shoulders.
The selection of Corey Davis in the draft and the free agent addition of Eric
Decker will allow them to open things up in the passing game, which in turn will
provide opportunities for a more wide open running attack. Mariota’s legs are a
weapon that haven’t properly been utilized, with only 600 rushing yards over
his first two seasons. If he is cut loose, he could easily take the next step
and carry this team to the top of the division.
Worst
Case:
The
success of the Titans a year ago didn’t do anything to eliminate my skepticism
about the coaching staff running things in Tennessee. Mike Mularkey still runs
an incredibly backwards offensive scheme, and though the backfield combo of
Murray and Derrick Henry is certainly talented, it is a poor fit for both the
modern NFL and the players on this team. If they continue running this
antiquated offense, they will prevent Mariota from continuing to develop to his
full potential and kill whatever hopes they have for this season.
The
defensive side of the ball brings cause for concern as well. Long time Titan
stalwart Jason McCourty is gone, and the secondary is a liability at best.
Adoree Jackson will provide a spark as a kick returner, but their second first
round pick is not ready to contribute on defense yet. This team will end up
surrendering a lot of points, and unless they’re willing to open things up on
offense I can’t see how they will keep up often enough to pull out this
division in the end.
Player
to Watch: Rishard Matthews, WR
The
Titans didn’t have many weapons last year, and Matthews was one of the lone
bright spots on the outside. He quietly put up 945 yards and 9 touchdowns
despite only starting ten of Tennessee’s games. By the end of the year he was
the clear number one receiver (assuming you don’t count tight end Delanie
Walker), supplanting former first round pick Kendall Wright and much buzzed
about rookie Tajae Sharpe.
This
isn’t the first time Matthews has produced. He put up 662 yards in 11 games for
the Dolphins in 2016, and that still netted him only 3 years and $15 million on
the free agent market. He won’t blow you away with his speed, but he’s built
like a boulder, and outside of his 40 yard dash his athletic numbers are very
respectable for a receiver. It’s not out of the question to imagine him taking
another step forward this year and becoming another legitimate threat for the
Titans to use (or ignore) on the outside.
Houston
Texans
Best
Case:
The
Texans won the division last year, and they did it with Brock Osweiler playing
quarterback and JJ Watt missing the majority of the season. They should be the
clear favorites in the AFC South, with a top flight defense and a star studded
offense. DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller are set up to bounce back from down
years, and Will Fuller and Braxton Miller are ready to break out in their
second seasons.
The
Texans shouldn’t need much from their quarterback, and a competent game
management style from Tom Savage might be enough to get them into the playoffs.
But their true peak could be reached if they hand the keys to rookie Deshaun
Watson. The talent that surrounds him in Houston is remarkably similar to what
he had at Clemson, and it shouldn’t be too hard for him to slide into a
starting role, distributing the ball and lifting this offense to basic
competence while the defense dominates as it has for years.
Worst
Case:
Houston
made the playoffs a year ago, but the truth is they weren’t very good. In fact,
a pretty good case could be made that they were a bottom ten team in the
league. They were outscored by their opponents, they finished 29th
in overall DVOA, and the only reason they won a playoff game was the good
fortune of facing Connor Cook. This is a team that screams regression, and even
the return of the best player in the NFL won’t stop that.
They
made plenty of moves around the quarterback position this offseason, but I’m
not sure if they actually got better. Savage looked roughly Osweiler’s equal a
year ago, and I didn’t think Watson was worth more than a second round pick. He
rarely makes plays with his arm, and he turns the ball over far too frequently
to be a “game manager”. And after three years that have seen them rotate
between Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Case Keenum, Brian Hoyer, TJ Yates,
Brandon Weeden, Osweiler, and Savage, I don’t think we owe Bill O’Brien any
benefit of the doubt when it comes to the quarterback position. This team is primed
for a collapse, and even their stellar defense won’t be enough to save them.
Player
to Watch: Jadeveon Clowney, DE
Clowney
is hardly the most under the radar player, but somehow the former first overall
pick has become one of the most underrated players in the NFL, an
accomplishment it takes a special sort of circumstances to reach. First of all
there was a lot of skepticism about him coming out, and those who were against
this selection jumped at any opportunity to tear him down. He struggled with
injuries his first two years, and when he came back he failed to put up the
sort of statistics we expect from a top flight defensive end. It doesn’t help
that he was selected ahead of Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald, two of the best
defensive players in the league, and that his career so far pales in comparison
with what they’ve done.
And
yet a year ago Clowney was one of the most dominant front seven players in the
entire NFL. He didn’t blow anyone away with only six sacks, and
there remain questions about if his repeated knee injuries may have stifled his
off the edge burst. But truthfully that doesn’t matter, as he proved last year
to be an overwhelming force against the run. He is unblockable at the point of
attack, swallowing offensive linemen and running backs no matter how many
blockers are sent his way. And it will only get easier this year with the
return of Watt, the two pairing with Whitney Mercilus to give the Texans one of
the most intimidating fronts in the NFL.
Jacksonville
Jaguars
Best
Case:
This
team would be so much fun if Blake Bortles wasn’t the quarterback. They have a
superstar receiver in Allen Robinson and excellent secondary options in Allen
Hurns and Marqise Lee. They have a rookie running back who specializes in
smashing defenders’ faces. Their defense took a major step forward a year ago,
and it’s only going to get better with young stars like Jalen Ramsey and Myles
Jack entering their second years.
The
best case scenario for the Jaguars would be to bench Bortles and sign Colin
Kaepernick as their starter. But since that seems unlikely, I don’t see any way
for this team to win more than six games. Whatever big stats he might have put
up two years ago, Bortles remains arguably the worst starting quarterback in
the league, and the fact that Jacksonville is just handing him this starting
job is a travesty. In theory I could throw in an “if he can put things
together” sort of scenario, but at this point with Bortles I don’t see that as
likely enough to bother considering.
Worst
Case:
The
best case for the Jaguars is pretty dour, and the worst case is pretty much the
same. The Jaguars aren’t going to make the playoffs this year, and their main
goals should be to see some growth from their young players before going out
and trying to find a quarterback in the offseason. But last year saw Robinson
take a significant step backwards, and any similar regression from their other
developing players would be a significant cause for concern.
Growth
isn’t linear in the NFL, and it’s a common error to assume that players will
just build off of their year to year development. The Jaguars improved
significantly on defense a year ago, but that can change back just as quickly.
These players know what they have at quarterback, and the fact that the team
hasn’t done anything about the situation is a clear message that they have no
intentions of winning this year. This is the sort of team that could fall to
pieces in a hurry and finish at the very bottom of the league.
Player
to Watch: Yannick Ngakoue, DE
After
missing his rookie year with a torn ACL, it was expected that 2016 would be the
year that Dante Fowler emerged as Jacksonville’s star pass rusher. And while I
still believe in Fowler (he just turned 23 last week), the best young pass
rusher on this team is their 2016 third round pick. Despite playing only two
thirds of the team’s defensive snaps he racked up eight sacks over the course
of the season, leading the team and ranking in the top thirty in the entire
league.
There
are reasons to be a little skeptical of Ngakoue. He is small for a defensive
end and middling as an athlete, and a year ago he was a significant minus as a
run defender. But he is even younger than Fowler, and another year of NFL reps
will only make him better. The Jaguars have impressive depth along the
defensive front, and if Ngakoue and Fowler can pick up their games harassing
the quarterback, this defense can take another step forward.
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