2017 AFC West Preview

Los Angeles Chargers

Best Case:

Every year I fall for this, but that isn’t going to stop me from doing it again. When I look at the rosters in this division, it’s hard for me to pick anyone other than Los Angeles as the best. They have the best quarterback. They have the best wide receiver. They have the best running back. They have an elite pass rusher. They have two excellent cornerbacks. On paper this is the clear best team in the division.

Health has been the problem with the Chargers for years, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that overall team health is mostly random from year to year. The Chargers have caught some bad breaks, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen again. They have the opportunity to get out to a strong start with games against the Broncos and the Chiefs in the first three weeks, and if they can get rolling and keep things together they could run away with this division.

Worst Case:

Team health is random, but individual players can be more prone to injury, and it’s possible that the Chargers may have just put together a rare collection of fragile players. Keenan Allen is one of the best players in the league, but we’re far past having any hope he can stay on the field. Jason Verrett is a lockdown cornerback, but he’s played 24 games in three years in the league. And already they are facing injury concerns from their top two draft picks, with Forrest Lamp out for the season and Mike Williams struggling with a back injury.

There’s a psychological factor to this as well. Last year the Chargers got a few unlucky breaks to start the year, and when the injuries started to toll the team rolled over and gave up. They very easily could do the same again this year. A season ago I wrote that the Chargers were the team I’d be most likely to bet on to win this division, and the team I’d be most likely to bet on to finish last. A year has gone by, and I haven’t changed the way I feel about this team one bit.

Player to Watch: Tyrell Williams, WR

Injuries are never a good thing, but they occasionally do reveal something buried deeper in the roster. And the Chargers may have found such a thing a year ago in Tyrell Williams. A second year player out of Western Oregon, he took advantage of the opportunity provided to catch 69 passes for 1059 yards and 7 touchdowns. Standing 6-4 he is the sort of big target they drafted Mike Williams to be, and the injury to his supposed replacement could give him another chance to show what he’s capable of.

Continuity is crucial in the NFL, and it’s something the Chargers have been lacking in their receiving corps for years. Rivers is as comfortable throwing to Tyrell Williams as anyone, and his faith in the young receiver has been rewarded. As charted by Marcus Mosher, Tyrell Williams was the most productive receiver in the league last year on both crossing routes and post routes, eating up the middle of the field and making life easy for his quarterback.

Oakland Raiders

Best Case:

Oakland returned to the playoffs last year for the first time since 2002, and as a team loaded with young talent it’s hard not to see things looking up from here. They have one of the best young defenders in the league, one of the best young receivers, and one of the best young quarterbacks. These players fill around a top five offensive line, and they could be augmented with the addition of Marshawn Lynch this offseason.

This offense is talented, and it’s deep. They won despite their defense a year ago, and if they can get mere competence on that side of the ball this is a team that can compete at the top of the AFC. They still have to feel the sting of last season ending with an injury to their quarterback, but Derek Carr will be back this year with the potential to take another step forward. Of all the teams in the division this is the one with the most upside and the only one for which I can see any realistic path towards a championship.

Worst Case:

Oakland was not nearly as good as their record indicated last year. They won a lot of close games that came down more to dumb luck than anything else, the sort of good fortune that won’t repeat this year. Outside a couple excellent pieces this defense is still filled with below average NFL talent, and there’s no reason to believe that Khalil Mack can do any more to elevate them than he did a year ago.

There are a lot of pieces of this team that are due for regression, and none is more glaring than Carr. Despite the light MVP buzz he received, he wasn’t a top ten quarterback a year ago. He benefited greatly from the talent around him, distributing the ball to open targets behind a line that kept him as clean as it was possible to be. Any adversity he faced caused him to break down completely, and he will inevitably face adversity this year. The future for the Raiders is still bright, but I think it’s reasonable to expect a step backwards this year.

Player to Watch: Kelechi Osemele, OG

Osemele is hardly a small name, after signing the largest contract in NFL history for a guard a year ago. But I just feel like I have to remind you to watch him, because he is one of the most fun players at any position in the league. He might be the strongest player in the NFL, and no one enjoys burying defensive linemen quite like him. Four or five times a game he will take his defender and drive him straight down into the ground, often just because he can.

Oakland’s offensive line is the best part of their team, and Osemele is the fulcrum of this. He is the road grading force they run behind, and he is the anchor of their pass protection. Carr struggles under pressure, but with Osemele in front of him he can count on having space to move up into, giving him the freedom to step into his throws and launch the ball down the field to his talented core of receivers.

Kansas City Chiefs

Best Case:

The Chiefs have won at least nine games in every season under Andy Reid and made the playoffs three times out of four. At this point Reid deserves the benefit of the doubt as one of the best coaches in the league, and he has the ability to get the most out of this roster. They have played most of the past two seasons without Jamaal Charles, so they should be able to take his departure in stride, and if they can find a way to creatively use Tyreek Hill this offense could gain an explosive element it’s been missing for years.

Defensively they’ll receive a boost with Justin Houston back to full health, joining with the usual suspects like Marcus Peters, Tamba Hali, and Eric Berry to make this defense as potent as it’s been for years. No team consistently generates big plays on the defensive side of the ball like Kansas City, and they have shown the ability to compensate for the lack of playmaking on offense. This team may still be short of a Super Bowl ceiling, but they could easily coast to another division title.

Worst Case:

Kansas City is a team that is normally viewed as a pretty safe bet, but I have a sneaking suspicion that this could be the year it all falls apart. The decision to release Jeremy Maclin was extremely suspect, and it leaves them without a single reliable wide receiver on offense. This puts even more pressure on Alex Smith, a quarterback who has repeatedly wilted when asked to make plays since entering the NFL. This is not a comfortable situation for him to be in, and it could lead to disaster on offense.

For a team with a reputation for stability the Chiefs have loaded up on a lot of high variance players. Hill can score any time the ball is in his hands, but he also requires touches in a way that doesn’t integrate with their offense well. He was a nonfactor in their playoff loss to the Steelers, and unless he can learn to play a normal role in the offense teams will have no trouble keying on his gimmick touches. On defense they produce a lot of turnovers, but they can also be susceptible to big plays, and if things start going badly this is a team that could surprise its way to a bottom ten finish.

Player to Watch: Mitch Morse, C

A couple years ago Kansas City’s offensive line was one of their biggest weaknesses. It has since become one of their biggest strengths, without a lot of big names or bold moves. They signed Mitch Schwartz from Cleveland to lock down their right side, essential in a division with Von Miller and Khalil Mack. Eric Fisher has grown from a presumed bust into a capable left tackle. And they used a second round pick on Morse, who stepped in after Rodney Hudson after he went to Oakland and kept this line from missing a beat.

Kansas City’s running backs are solid, but they aren’t the sort of players who can make something out of nothing. The same can be said of Alex Smith, who doesn’t have the sort of pocket presence to neutralize pressure. This team has potential on offense, but they need their line clicking at a high level for that to happen. And standing at the center of that line is Morse, maybe not their best offensive lineman (it’s probably Schwartz) but in many ways their most important.

Denver Broncos

Best Case:

It is insane that a team with this roster is so clearly at the bottom of their division, but of all the teams in the AFC West the Broncos are the ones I most struggle to come up with upside for. They have the second best defensive player in the world, the best cornerback tandem in the league, and a pair of wide receivers who have each gone over 1000 yards in three straight seasons. Where they are good, they are very good, and that will be enough to win them several games.

I just can’t really see any scenario where they put it all together. Spending a first round pick on Garrett Bolles was smart, but one piece is not going to fix their offensive line. And the quarterback situation is as bleak as any in the league. Trevor Siemian was okay last year, but the failure of Paxton Lynch to claim the starting role does not bode well for his future. In theory he could take over and lead a high flying, down the field passing attack that generates enough big plays for their defense to win them games. But until I see it, I’m not buying in.

Worst Case:

I didn’t like Lynch coming out in the draft, and his limited action during his rookie year only strengthened my doubts. I haven’t seen any evidence that he can play in an NFL offense, and I don’t think his physical tools are enough to generate enough plays on their own.

Starting Siemian offers a limited ceiling, but it provides a reasonable floor of six or seven wins. If they decide to go the Lynch route, things could turn very ugly. Their pass protection is abysmal, and they are even worse blocking in the running game. Aside from occasional shots down the field this offense has nothing going for it, and both their quarterbacks turn the ball over too often to win defensive slugfests. In a lesser division they might have a chance, but against the competition in the AFC West they could be the first team to fall completely out of the picture.

Player to Watch: Ronald Leary, OG

You’re probably sick of hearing me talk about offensive linemen by now, so I’ll keep this short. Denver’s line was an absolute mess last year, both in the running game and protecting the quarterback. Their biggest investment was a first round pick in Garrett Bolles, their likely starter at left tackle, but the most impactful might have been the addition of Leary through free agency.

Leary has been the smallest name on the most high profile line in the league for years now. He was a more than capable member of Dallas’s front, and now he’ll have a chance to step out of their shadow to show what he can do. It will be an adjustment to shift to playing with the mess up front in Denver, but he has the ability to stabilize things while they bring along their younger players.