2017 NFC South Preview

We’ve almost made it. The first game of the NFL regular season is less than a month away, and we’ve already had a little preseason action to whet our appetites. And in preparation I’ll spend the next four weeks running through each and every team to break down what I think will happen over the course of the season.

I’ll be following the same format as I have over the past few years. For each team I’ll list a best case and a worst case scenario, followed by a player to keep your eyes on. Sometimes it will be an underappreciated star, sometimes a young player on the verge of a breakout, and sometimes just someone I wanted to write a couple paragraphs about. Within each division the teams will be listed in roughly the order I think they’ll finish, though this could very easily change by the time my official predictions come around.

Atlanta Falcons

Best Case:

Atlanta came as close as possible to winning a championship last year while still falling short, so clearly their best case scenario is winning the Super Bowl. After a couple down years they have rebuilt themselves into the clear class of this division, and even some regression from their star players won’t change the fact that they are deeper and more talented than every other team in the NFC South.

Atlanta wasn’t great on defense last year, but they were very young, which suggests they could take a significant step forward on that side of the ball. The addition of Takk McKinley as a pass rushing threat opposite Vic Beasley will give them a new dimension, unlocking a defense that has the potential to dominate with aggression and make plays to take the pressure off their offense. Atlanta could be even better this year than they were a year ago, and a year ago they were a few unlucky breaks away from winning it all.

Worst Case:

The depth on Atlanta’s roster is certainly a step up from what it was a year ago, but I find myself worried about the stars that headline their roster. Beasley had a breakout campaign in his second year, but a lot of it was a matter of chance, converting sacks at a much higher rate than you would expect. Simple regression to the mean could knock him down to nine or ten sacks, and given his continued inability to defend the run this might not be enough for Atlanta to justify leaving him on the field for every play.

There is reason to worry as well about the reigning league MVP. Matt Ryan was sensational last year, and I still believe he deserved to win the award, but much of what he accomplished came thanks to offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. No quarterback in the league was put into position to succeed as consistently as Ryan was last year, and now that Shanahan’s gone to coach the 49ers we have to wonder if Ryan might become the player he was two or three years ago. Atlanta’s run last year depended on excellence from the very top of their roster, and if they can’t sustain that they could see a fall similar to Carolina’s from a year ago.

Player to Watch: Desmond Trufant, CB

When dealing with a team that made a surprise run to the Super Bowl, it’s hard to find a player who truly flies under the radar. Fortunately, Atlanta has a major contributor who wasn’t around for most of last season’s run. When healthy Trufant is Atlanta’s best defensive player, and he’s on his way back from a shoulder injury that cost him all but nine games a year ago.

Trufant has toiled for years now as the lone bright spot on a wretched defensive unit, and now that the talent has built up around him he’ll have a chance to truly shine. Even if Ryan and Beasley regress as we’d expect, the addition of one of the league’s top cornerbacks could give Atlanta the boost it needs to repeat as the champions of the NFC. Atlanta may not have the ability to run away in shootouts again this year, but they likely won’t need to do so anymore.

Carolina Panthers

Best Case:

It’s hard to know what to expect from Carolina at this point. Two years ago they shocked everyone by running out to a 15-1 record and riding that into the Super Bowl. Last year almost the exact same team fell to pieces from the opening kickoff, losing five of their first six and finishing in the bottom ten of the league. Most of the blame went to their quarterback, as it inevitably does, but the true problem is that the Panthers were asking way too much of Cam Newton. He carried the team on both his arms and his legs in 2015, and slipping from Herculean to merely excellent last year was enough to sink the team.

Carolina’s offense has been an absolute mess for several seasons, but it looks like they may be catching on. After years building an offense to launch the ball deep to clumsy statues like Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess, the Panthers spent their first two picks on Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel. Both players occupy a hybrid RB/WR role, the sort of threats that will thrive in a creative, quick hitting offensive scheme. It remains to be seen whether the Panthers can pull this off, but their openness to change suggests they might be closer to their 2015 level than we’d expect.

Worst Case:

On the other hand, if Carolina’s scheme hasn’t evolved with their personnel, they could be in for another long season. Their offensive line has continued to deteriorate, and a number of their best players on both sides of the ball are on the downhill side of their careers. Greg Olsen and Thomas Davis performed admirably last year, but they’re at the age when a decline can come quickly and sharply. Both are also up for new contracts as well, and the recent turmoil in the front office seems to point in the direction of them committing long term money to beloved but aging stars.

Carolina is hanging on by a few threads, and if things go badly this could be the beginning of a five year tailspin. But at the same time, this team played in the Super Bowl just a year and a half ago, and they still have a superstar quarterback who has proven himself capable of carrying mediocre talent on his shoulders. Of the teams in the NFC South, the Panthers are the ones I see with the best chance to push Atlanta for the division crown. But I think chances are just as good that they round out the bottom of the division.

Player to Watch: Shaq Thompson, LB

Carolina doesn’t have a lot of young talent on their defense, but Thompson is intriguing enough to make up for the dearth elsewhere. Last year’s first round pick, he enjoyed a quietly solid rookie year after being one of the most discussed prospects in the draft. Coming out of Washington he was portrayed as a jack of all trades athlete, a linebacker who doubled as a safety and also had experience carrying the ball on offense. People expected either a major boom or a major bust, and in the absence of the former it seems like a lot of people have assumed the latter.

But Thompson is a good player, even if he hasn’t yet proven to be the gamechanger he was expected to be coming out of college. He only played half the snaps for Carolina last year, blocked by a pair of superstars ahead of him, but he excelled in these opportunities, and he is only going to get more this year. Before the Panthers hand more money to Davis, they should give Thompson a chance to prove he’s ready to take his place. And if their young linebacker can step up, they might save themselves from making a financial mistake that will cost them down the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Best Case:

We’ve been waiting for the Buccaneers to break out for years now, but this might just be it. Looking around the league I’m not sure if anyone had a better offseason than Tampa Bay. The addition of DeSean Jackson on the outside brought another dangerous weapon for Jameis Winston to play with, and then they doubled down by selecting the best receiving option in the draft in OJ Howard. With Mike Evans already emerging as a star, this has the potential to be one of the deepest and most explosive offenses in the league.

The defense has held them back for years, but they may finally have young depth to support stars Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David. Both Vernon Hargreaves and Noah Spence had strong rookie seasons that leave them in position to explode in their second years, potentially giving them a pair of new stars to join an overall solid unit. Combine that with an offensive line that is equally young and nearly as promising, and this could be a team that makes a serious leap forward this year.

Worst Case:

It’s become customary to watch the Buccaneers disappoint in the face of a potential breakout, and it could very easily happen again in 2017. They’ve loaded up with weapons, and they have as much name recognition as any team in the league, but at their core they are still a very young team, and young teams never improve with the smooth pattern that everyone expects.

There are always fits and starts with young talent, and no player embodies that more than Winston. At times he looks like the next great quarterback in the league, but these stretches are broken by moments of horrendous play that will sink the entire team. If he can get these rough patches ironed out, the Buccaneers can push for the division title. But after two years waiting for him to figure it out, another bad season could be the time to start worrying about the future of him and this team.

Player to Watch: Cameron Brate, TE

The Buccaneers made OJ Howard their first selection, and he has all the tools to contribute immediately as an every down player. But quietly Tampa Bay already has an excellent player at the tight end position in fourth year player Brate. Last year he caught 57 passes for 660 yards and 8 touchdowns, a solid if unspectacular season for a tight end. But he is still on the upward slope of his career, and if he continues to develop he will be just another weapon for the Buccaneers to utilize.

New Orleans Saints

Best Case:

It’s impossible to count Drew Brees out, even after three straight disappointing 7-9 seasons. The lack of team success has killed a lot of buzz around Brees, but he is still a Hall of Fame quarterback, and he is playing very close to the superstar peak that won him a Super Bowl eight years ago. With receiver Michael Thomas coming off one of the most successful rookie campaigns in league history, and with a team restocked with young talent after a couple years of dedicated drafting, the Saints could finally have a core worthy of their quarterback.

That doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy, and it will still be an uphill slog to the playoffs. A division title might be too much to hope for, but a late season run could snag them a wild card spot. Young defenders like Von Bell and Sheldon Rankins will step forward to make that side of the ball at least passable for the first time in years, and their deep backfield will slightly lessen the load on their quarterback, giving Brees a chance for another run as his career winds down.

Worst Case:

Brees is old, and as we saw with Peyton Manning the decline of a quarterback in his late 30s can hit faster and harder than we ever anticipated. The entire Saints roster is built with the premise that their quarterback will be one of the five best in the league, and if he even slips a little this is a team looking at a bottom of the league finish. They’re already banged up along the offensive line, they traded away their best deep threat in the offseason, and they’re placing a lot of hope on a 32 year old running back who had 72 yards rushing last season.

There is a way for this season to work out for the Saints, but there are ten ways for it to go wrong. And if this year goes wrong, New Orleans will be looking at a grim future. This is probably the last chance for Sean Payton to pull it off, and even though I don’t think they would ever part ways with Brees until he’s ready, it’s something they will have to consider if they aren’t able to make a run this season.

Player to Watch: Alvin Kamara, RB

I’m going to try to avoid throwing a bunch of rookies into this category, but Kamara is just too much fun to ignore. And while I’m certainly worried about how his playing time will work out stacked behind Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson, the talent he displayed at Tennessee is bound to show through somewhere. As a kick returner, as a slot receiver, as anything that gets the ball in his hands, I still have faith that Sean Payton can use this unique weapon.

Kamara still has a lot of work to do to learn how to fit into a normal offensive scheme. But in space he is a rare weapon, combining raw speed, animal strength, and impossible balance to dance his way forward through defenses. He may not get many touches, but he will make the most of them, and it would shock me if he wasn’t the primary running back heading into the 2018 season.