2017 NFC West Preview

Of all the divisions in the league this is probably the easiest to rank (the only real competition is the AFC East). There is one clear top tier team, one fringe playoff contender, one mediocre also-ran, and one absolute disgrace of a franchise. I would be shocked if these teams finished in any order other than the one below.

But I’ve been wrong before. So let’s run through and see what we have to work with in the NFC West.

Seattle Seahawks

Best Case:

We know what the Seahawks are at this point. They have an excellent defense that, when playing at its best, can take over games and absolutely dominate the opposition. They play with a remarkable combination of aggression and discipline that generates opportunities while also shutting down any hope for the offense. On the other side of the ball they struggle with consistency, but they make enough big plays to keep them ahead and let their defense play their attacking style.

After a couple years fighting through one of the most competitive divisions in the league, things have gotten a lot easier for Seattle. They should be able to coast to a division title and focus on their real goal for the end of the year. Health has done them in during the past couple seasons, but if they can keep things together they are the most complete team in the NFC, and quite possibly the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Worst Case:

I mentioned health in the previous section, and that is the most important factor for this team. Their starting lineup is filled with talent, but after a couple years of letting second tier talent leave in free agency and failing to develop young talent they are sorely lacking for depth. Their offensive line is still a travesty to the sport of football, and they’ve already lost starting left tackle George Fant for the season (he isn’t good, but his replacement is going to be worse). Every game is going to be another struggle to keep Russell Wilson upright and on the field.

The truth is that Seattle has done nothing to improve their team in the past three years. They’ve done an admirable job keeping the core of their roster together, but if you look at their best players it is the exact same list it was three years ago. They’ve whiffed on draft picks like Germain Ifedi and Paul Richardson, and they haven’t been able to add any useful free agents. This team is moving backwards with each passing year, and their window could close a lot quicker than we expect.

Player to Watch: CJ Prosise, RB

The backfield in Seattle is crowded, with Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls, and Prosise all bringing intriguing and varied talents to the fold. All three will have their opportunities to contribute, and in the end I expect that Prosise will bring the most value to their offense. In his rookie year he only carried the ball 30 times, but those carries went for 172 yards, and he added over 200 yards as a receiver on fewer than 20 targets.

Prosise’s versatility as a receiver sets him ahead of the other two backs. Seattle’s offensive line woes will prevent them from establishing any sort of a running game, and they’ll need to find another way to attack the underneath parts of the defense. Prosise has the ability to flex out wide as a receiver, getting the ball into his hands in space on the second level. He is the perfect complement for Wilson’s scrambling, improvisational style, and if he can stay healthy he’ll bring a dynamic to this offense that it hasn’t had before.

Arizona Cardinals

 

Best Case:

Of all the teams in the division Arizona is the one most likely to prove me wrong. They won the division two years ago, and they bounced back well down the stretch after a slow start last season. They still play a high variance style that can produce wild swings in fortune, and it’s easy to imagine their failures last year as bad luck that will swing the other way this year. It’s not hard to believe they could get back to their 2015 form chucking the ball down the field and blitzing the hell out of opposing quarterbacks.

Even if they can’t keep up with Seattle, the Cardinals have to be a favorite to earn a wild card spot. They have one of the best offensive weapons in the league in David Johnson, a running back who can spread out wide and create impossible matchups running routes as a wide receiver. They are similarly loaded with playmaking talent on the back end of their defense, with Patrick Peterson manning the outside and rookie Budda Baker joining Tyrann Mathieu to give them a pair of versatile and dangerous attacking forces to run sideline to sideline.

Worst Case:

The headliners of Arizona’s defense are mostly intact, but on the whole the unit looks very little like it has over the past few years. Most of their supporting talent is gone, and they have a lot of fresh faces they’re counting on to make major impacts. None is more critical than last year’s first round pick Robert Nkemdiche, who will need to make major improvement to replace the impact and consistency of Calais Campbell.

Even with Johnson controlling things on the ground, this offense will swing on the 37 year old arm of Carson Palmer. He was better last year than people realize, but there were still a lot of worrying signs that he may be reaching the end of his physical abilities. If he can no longer consistently push the ball down the field, this offense is going to have to adjust on the fly. The talent is there to do so, but Bruce Arians has struggled over his career to adjust his scheme, and a little stubbornness could be enough to sink this season.

Player to Watch: Antoine Bethea, S

Bethea had the bad luck of signing on to join the 49ers right as their team started to fall apart, and he has to hope he didn’t just make the same mistake with the Cardinals. He has played excellently on a terrible team for the past three seasons, and in Arizona he finally has the talent around him to let him thrive.

He will likely occupy a role playing the deep middle of the field while Mathieu and Baker wreak havoc underneath. At 33 years old he doesn’t have the range he used to, but his experience and recognition will be a huge help to this transitioning defense. Arizona still wants to attack, and they need someone on the back end they can trust to do what is asked of him on every play.

Los Angeles Rams

Best Case:

Give the Rams credit, they definitely tried to improve their team this offseason. They added some critical talent to their offense, starting with Andrew Whitworth on the offensive line and finishing up with the trade for Sammy Watkins. They now have actual talent around Jared Goff, and if he can take a big step forward this could be at least a league average offense (and he certainly can’t get worse than he was a year ago).

This is still a defense first team, and the addition of Wade Phillips as a defensive coordinator has the potential to elevate this unit into one of the best in the league. Aaron Donald is an unstoppable force up front, and they have complementary pieces that can thrive in well defined roles. There is still a clear ceiling to this team, likely defined by their quarterback, but in the absolute best case I could see this team making a surprise run at the playoffs.

Worst Case:

I liked Goff entering the draft, and that’s about the only reason I’m not giving up on him yet. His rookie season was atrociously terrible, far beyond what you could conceivably blame on the talent surrounding him. Adding new wide receivers doesn’t help if he can’t hit open targets. Giving him better protection is worth nothing if he consistently runs from clean pockets.

This team made some nice moves during the offseason, but they are still missing too many pieces to have a realistic chance of competing. And if their quarterback doesn’t significantly improve, they could be headed for a top five selection. The back seven of their defense is a mess, the offensive line is a work in progress, and for some reason they aren’t willing to give Donald the money he deserves (he deserves all of it). Another bad year from Goff, some key free agent departures, and this is a team that could be looking at starting from scratch once again in 2018.

Player to Watch: John Sullivan, C

Before injuries drove him out of Minnesota, Sullivan was one of the best centers in the league. He was a consistent anchor in the pass game, and he did enough to open holes for the best rushing attack in the league. After a year riding the bench in Washington, he’s getting another opportunity to start with the Rams as part of a rebuilt offensive line in front of their young quarterback.

Sullivan is 32 years old, and he hasn’t played meaningful time since 2014. In all likelihood whatever skills he had are long gone and never coming back. But if he can provide even a little bit of veteran stability on the interior, it could set the tone for the entire offense. It’s a long shot, but everything about this team is, and a bounceback year from a talented veteran is the sort of thing that could elevate them above what I believe they’re actually capable of.

San Francisco 49ers

Best Case:

The 49ers deserve some credit. They aren’t going to be good this year, but for the first time in several seasons they at least aren’t trying to be good. After screwing up the Jim Harbaugh situation, this team scrambled through two coaches in two years trying to recapture the magic before hitting the reset button. Now with a new GM and new head coach—both under six year contracts—they are beginning a long rebuilding process.

The absolute upside of this team is four wins. But they can still have a good four win season. They have an interesting, if slightly imbalanced young defense, and they can use these games to experiment and see how Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas fit together. Kyle Shanahan has a chance to play around with some new ideas on offense, even if he doesn’t really have talent to work with. This is a year for experimentation, for screwing things up with no consequences and learning from their mistakes. And hopefully they can come back in 2018 with slightly more talent and start working towards a playoff spot two or three years down the road.

Worst Case:

This team is absolutely brutal to look at on paper. In any other year this would be by far the worst team in the league, and they’re spared from that only by the Jets putting together the worst roster I have ever seen in the NFL. Brian Hoyer is their starting quarterback. Pierre Garcon is their best skill position player. They just gave more than $20 million to a fullback.

This team isn’t good, and they won’t even be fun either. This isn’t the Browns last year. They don’t have a Terrelle Pryor or an Isaiah Crowell to distract us from the rest of their roster. There are a couple of young players worth watching on the defensive side of the ball, but for the most part this is a team of random pieces assembled from short term throwaway contracts. I’m sure I’ll watch them play a couple times this year, but I would not recommend that you do the same.

Player to Watch: Elvis Dumervil, OLB

Elvis Dumervil is in San Francisco! Did you know that? Because I certainly didn’t. I’m not sure what, if anything, Dumervil still has in the tank, after managing only three sacks in eight games last year. But he’s still a fun player, a veteran who will have nothing to do but attack the passer in a situational role.

Dumervil is actually a sneaky candidate for a ten sack season. He’s an extremely clever pass rusher, and he will know instinctively how to play off of San Francisco’s young and athletic defensive front. He knows this team is going nowhere, and he’ll likely be willing to freelance a little and abandon his responsibilities to chase blindly after the quarterback. It isn’t much, but it’s a ray of light on an otherwise dismal team.