2023 Quarterback Prospects

And now we get to the only position that actually matters: the quarterbacks. The more I watched this class, the more I fell in love with them, particularly with the talent at the top. Thinking back over the ten quarterback classes I’ve scouted, this is probably the third-best I’ve seen (behind 2018 and 2021). It’s an exciting and diverse group, with potential superstars and potential minefields lurking down the entire list.

 

CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

The top two quarterbacks in this class are neck-and-neck, and the difference between the two honestly comes down largely to stylistic preference. Stroud is the safer pick as an almost sure-thing high-level starting quarterback, but he’s less likely to make the superhuman plays we’ve seen from many young star quarterbacks in recent years. He’s a bit of a throwback, an old-fashioned quarterback who excels picking defenses apart from inside the pocket but who can get a little rigid at times and doesn’t make plays out of structure.

In fairness to Stroud, he very rarely had to make plays out of structure in college. Of the top five quarterbacks I looked at he was the only one I didn’t come away from hating his supporting cast, and they certainly made his life easy at Ohio State. But he also makes his own life easy at times as well. He’s an expert at the sort of subtle movements in the pocket that you don’t see much from young quarterbacks these days, able to erase pressure simply by drifting a step to the side while staying perfectly balanced to deliver the ball down the field. He’s the sort of quarterback who can make a below-average offensive line look competent, and make everything look far easier for himself than it actually is.

The other things that jump out from Stroud’s tape are his decision-making and his accuracy. The offense he ran at Ohio State asked him to make a lot of simple throws, but on the rare occasions he was asked to make more complex reads, he pretty much always found the right place to go with the ball. And while he misses more throws than past top-end prospects like Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow, he also creates throws down the field with pinpoint precision to hit windows other quarterbacks would never dream of attempting. He’s particularly lethal attacking seam routes down the middle, and playing Cover-2 against him is basically asking for a tight end or slot receiver to carve you open down your belly.

In the end I put Stroud ahead of Young largely because I believe his physical tools give more flexibility to build an offense around him in the NFL. I think he can still develop as a playmaker when things break down, but even if he doesn’t, he can operate an elite offense simply by running everything as its drawn in the playbook. He doesn’t have Mahomes/Allen/Herbert level arm strength, but he can hit every route on the field. And with time I believe he can patch up holes in his game like throwing on the run and finding space when the play breaks down in order to become a top quarterback in the league, even if he doesn’t have the upside of a true MVP-level player.

 

Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Young is the quarterback you go for if you want someone who can turn a bad play into a great one. He’s the best quarterback in this class when the play breaks down, thanks to his combination of athleticism and incredible instincts. He’s not an elite running threat like Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, but he can do some damage with his legs down the field, and he is incredibly elusive behind the line of scrimmage. He extends plays far beyond their normal boundaries, and he does so while always keeping his eyes down the field, with an astonishing sense both for where his receivers are and where the space is for him to throw the football.

Young is at his best when he’s improvising, but he’s pretty impressive within structure as well. He reads routes well over the middle of the field and throws with good anticipation, usually hitting his receivers in stride to let them continue running after the catch. His awareness of his receivers extends to finding checkdown options, though he could probably be a little quicker at getting to them at times. He has a habit of holding the ball too long or trying to break away even when there is nothing there, which will lead to a lot of sacks at the next level.

The biggest knock on Young is his size, and it’s a legitimate issue. I’m not too concerned about injury risk—the studies I’ve seen show no correlation between weight and injury rate—but I am concerned with how his lack of height affects how he handles pressure in his face. Simply put, if you get someone in front of Young, the play is over. Because of his height he is forced to fade away from throws to get them over defenders, and unlike similar short quarterbacks like Murray and Russell Wilson, his arm strength is below average. He cannot complete a throw unless he is able to step into it, but stylistically he doesn’t have the subtle pocket movements needed to create space while keeping his base beneath him. He’s built like Drew Brees, but he plays like Patrick Mahomes.

Young will still be a very good quarterback, but there are clear limitations with him. He struggles pushing the ball to the third level of the field, and it’s almost essential to have a good interior offensive line in front of him. His play style is aggressive, and I think he’ll have a rough transition to the NFL until he learns when to take chances and when not to. But in a couple of years, if you put the right talent in front of him and let him weather his bumps and bruises, he can become an elite quarterback with the sort of playmaking skills that will make him a nightmare to try to defend.

 

Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

For three years now every physically gifted but raw quarterback has been compared to Josh Allen, but Richardson is the first where I actually buy into that comparison. His arm isn’t quite at Allen’s level, but it is well above average, and he augments it by being one of the best athletes the NFL has ever seen at any position. He is a threat on both scrambles and designed runs, with every tool you could want from a ball carrier—speed, power, vision, patience, agility. He can extend plays behind the line to find receivers down the field, and he can tuck and run for massive gains if he sees even a little space in front of him.

I used the word “raw” to describe Richardson above, and that is certainly a valid description. He doesn’t go through his progressions as well or as quickly as the two quarterbacks I have listed above him, and as plays wear on he can get into trouble, either taking unnecessary risks trying to do too much or simply missing throws as his footwork breaks down. But when things are operating under control, he has everything you look for from a quarterback. He makes good decisions with the ball, and he fires it on-time and accurately, with either touch or velocity as needed.

The biggest thing missing from Richardson’s game is consistency, and I think that will come with experience. He only had one year as a regular starter in college, and it wasn’t in a situation conducive to good quarterback play. The default for whoever drafts him will be to sit him on the bench to let him learn, but this is the exact opposite of what he needs. Richardson is a smart player who knows what he needs to do—reading coverage down the field, moving in the pocket to extend plays, throwing to spots rather than waiting for his receivers to come open—and he just needs more reps to make that become natural, rather than something he’s thinking about on every play.

There is absolutely bust potential with Richardson, which is why I have him below the other two quarterbacks. He’s less accurate than those two, less polished as a decision-maker, and overall just less consistent. But his ceiling is far above either of theirs, and if I had to bet on one quarterback from this class winning an MVP someday, it would absolutely be Richardson. A lot of it will depend on where he ends up, and whether he’s given enough opportunity to struggle and figure things out early on in his career. I would absolutely still spend a top-five selection on him if the other two are off the board, and I think it’s more likely than not that he figures it all out and becomes a top-tier NFL quarterback.

 

Tanner McKee, QB, Stanford

The first thing I’ll say about McKee is that I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a quarterback get less help from a supporting cast. I was genuinely mad on his behalf watching his offensive line get shredded in front of him, and only got madder as I saw enough plays where he got time to throw down the field and discovered that his wide receivers couldn’t get open or catch a football. The situation he was in at Stanford was an absolute nightmare for a quarterback, and it’s not surprising to me that he still has glaring holes in his development, holes that may mean he is simply unable to play in the NFL.

But man, when he has time to stand in the pocket and throw a football, it is a sight to behold. His arm is electric, and the ball always ends up exactly where he wants to put it. He can hit receivers in stride in tight windows over the middle of the field, and he can drop throws with stunning precision deep down the sideline in the perfect spot for his receiver to make the play. He rarely puts the ball into danger, which is impressive considering he almost never has receivers with actual separation from defenders. As a pure thrower of the football, he’s right up there with Stroud at the top of the class.

Even if McKee ends up in a much better situation in the NFL, he still has quite a bit of work to do to become ready to play. His offense in college was a bunch of single-read throws, and it’s hard to judge why this was. Perhaps he isn’t mentally at a high level for a quarterback, or perhaps the coaches were as mediocre as the rest of the talent they put around him. When he was asked to do more, he usually made good decisions with the ball, though at times he’d get stuck as the pocket collapsed around him. He has some ability to maneuver within the pocket to eliminate pressure, but he is less naturally graceful than Stroud, and will need to clean up his footwork some as well.

I think there is a chance that McKee could put everything together in a couple years and become a top-tier quarterback, though he will always be somewhat limited by his lack of athleticism. He is a pure pocket passer, and unlike Stroud there isn’t some secret athleticism he’s holding in check. McKee is a willing runner, but he is simply too slow for it to actually be an effective part of his game. I still think a quarterback like this can succeed in the modern NFL, but it is a tougher path, and he won’t have that athleticism to lean on as he works out his kinks as a passer. The chances of him putting this all together are slim, particularly since I don’t expect him to get the support he needs to develop in the NFL. But the upside is enough that I would personally be fine spending a second-round or even a late first-round pick on him. There’s a pretty good chance he flames out entirely, but personally I prefer that to the sort of purgatory you’re likely to end up in with the next quarterback.

 

Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Levis is a prospect that has become extremely polarizing through this process, which is why I find myself in a weird place of thinking he’s just kind of fine. He’s not the top-ten pick that some people make him out to be, but he’s not the complete void of talent that others are claiming either. He’s the sort of player who will become a perfectly fine NFL quarterback, probably something like the 15^th to 20^th best in the league. And the value of a player like that is hard to pin down. On a rookie contract it’s probably a good deal, and I might be able to see justifying a second-round selection on him. The hard part will come after five years are up, and you find yourself in the situation the Giants were this year, either having to give a huge deal to a mediocre player or else start from scratch at the position once again (teams almost always choose the former).

There are certainly things that Levis does well. He’s extremely gifted physically, with an arm that can hit any point on the field and enough athleticism to make occasional, unspectacular plays with his legs. He’s built like a boulder and is totally unafraid of contact, either diving forward to pick up a couple extra yards or hanging in the pocket to take a big shot while completing a throw. As a passer he’s at his best working off play action and attacking the middle of the field. He’s very good at manipulating the football to hide it from the defense, then flipping his hips around to fire it to his target. His overall accuracy is below average, but when he’s operating in rhythm he can thread the ball through tight windows with anticipation over the middle of the field.

There are serious flaws in Levis’s game too, most of which are correctible but enough that I doubt he’ll manage to fix them all in the NFL. His accuracy will hold him back for a while, particularly on deep balls where he consistently underthrows his targets despite more than adequate arm strength. He is occasionally slow making his reads, and will predetermine throws before the snap, leading him to force ball to targets covered by unexpected late rotations. And his biggest issue is his pocket presence. He has basically no awareness of the pressure around him and operates just based off of a simple clock in his head. If the defense arrives before the clock elapses, he will take a sack. If his line keeps him clean, he will bail from clean pockets far earlier than he needs to.

Some of these warts will go away with experience, and I feel pretty comfortable that he won’t completely wash out of the league. But the path towards becoming a top-level quarterback is very narrow for him. He has the tools, but there is a ton of work to do, and he is already a couple years older than the top three passers in this class. The most likely path to success I see for him is to end up in the right offensive system with a talented supporting cast. He is basically the perfect Kyle Shanahan quarterback, and it’s almost a shame that there’s essentially no chance of him winding up with the 49ers. He could thrive in that situation, but in most other circumstances his limitations will lead to just as much frustration as success.

 

Stetson Bennett, QB, Georgia

Bennett is not thought of particularly highly as a draft prospect. He’s small for a quarterback, and his arm strength is underwhelming (though better than most people think, and probably similar to Young’s). He’s already 25 years old, and doesn’t appear to offer much upside on paper. But he also won two straight national championships, and he’s been written off enough times in his career that I thought he was at least worth a look, in case there’s something the numbers on paper are missing. And I think there’s a case to be made that he has more upside than people think, even if that still probably only makes him worth a fifth-round selection.

Admittedly, Bennett had a very easy time at Georgia. His offensive line consistently kept him untouched in the pocket, and while his wide receiver talent wasn’t extraordinary, he had multiple tight ends that presented him with huge targets he could trust over the middle of the field. Unsurprisingly he was at his best attacking this area, capable of occasional pinpoint throws into tight windows. That precision comes and goes however, as he just as frequently would be a little off from his target and force his receivers to adjust for difficult catches, robbing them of opportunities to pick up yards after the catch.

The biggest issue with Bennett is that he’s just kind of wild. He took more chances with the ball than he should have at Georgia, and this will only be more of a problem in the NFL against tighter coverage and with more pressure closing in around him. His footwork is atrocious, and he throws way too many passes fading away, making his arm look far weaker than it actually is. The fact that he’s had this much time to work on his mechanics and is still this sloppy suggests that this probably isn’t something that is fixable.

All that said, he made it work in college. He has a lot of those same instincts I talked about above with Young, the ability to just know where everyone is on the field and what he needs to do to make the most of a play. He throws well on the run, he understands how to alter his trajectory to get throws through defenses, and when plays break down he has enough athleticism to turn nothing into something. I don’t think this is enough for him to be a consistent starting quarterback, not with all the other flaws I discussed above. But it’s the sort of thing that could give defenses fits in small doses as a backup quarterback forced into action, and he’s a player I wouldn’t mind having around in case of emergency.

 

Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

Hooker has been climbing up draft boards recently, and most mock drafts now have him sneaking into the back-half of the first round. This is because he has reportedly been very impressive in interviews with teams, which isn’t something I can comment on. He certainly demonstrated a mastery of the offensive system he ran at Tennessee, but it was also about the easiest system a college quarterback can be asked to run, so it’s hard to know how that will translate to the next level. But even if he is some schematic savant who simply wasn’t asked to demonstrate this at the college level, I still don’t see anything that he did on film that suggests he has a future as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

The first huge red flag with Hooker is his age. Like Bennett he is already 25 years old, and is coming off of six years spent in college. Some people are willing to dismiss this, pointing out that quarterback careers are lasting longer than ever these days. But my concern is not one of longevity. My concern is that he played five years in college and was mediocre most of those seasons, before breaking out in his sixth and final year. How good would most quarterback prospects be if they had that sort of experience and time to develop? And how much more room does he actually have to grow, at a point where he should already be entering the prime of his career?

I have plenty of on-field concerns with Hooker as well. Like I mentioned, his offense was extremely simple, consistently asking him to read a very limited set of routes on only one half of the field on any given play. His second option was almost always to take off and run, and at times this meant burrowing straight ahead out of a stable pocket. He at least managed to avoid serious mistakes—he didn’t run backwards often, and didn’t force balls into coverage—but his ball security in the pocket left a lot to be desired.

The biggest problem I see with Hooker is that he’s just not very accurate. There are plenty of highlights where he delivers pinpoint deep passes, but that’s only because he threw more deep balls than any quarterback I’ve ever seen. Most of the time these deep passes came in off target, usually on underthrows. His arm strength is just fine for deep passes, and underwhelming when he tries to fire it with velocity. And his accuracy issues are only worse attacking over the middle of the field. He misses all over the place, but his most frequent error is throwing over his receiver’s head, which against NFL safeties is just asking for an interception.

I suppose there are enough decent physical tools to maybe justify spending a sixth or seventh round pick on Hooker, just on the off-chance he can be the sort of dynamic emergency option I described with Bennett above. He’s a very good athlete who is dangerous running with the ball, though he’s not the sort to extend plays behind the line of scrimmage to find receivers down the field. For the most part he’s just a flashy but limited quarterback with little-to-no upside, and whoever does select him in this draft is likely going to regret it very soon.