Wednesday, April 12, 2023

2023 Defensive Back Prospects

Last year saw maybe the best performance by a rookie cornerback class in NFL history. Historically it has been a position that is very difficult to transition from college to pro, but in 2022 we saw an All Pro season from Sauce Gardner, a league-leading six interceptions from Tariq Woolen, and strong performances from several other rookie cornerbacks. Whether that success can be repeated in 2023 remains to be seen, but this is a solid and deep cornerback group that has the potential to have an immediate impact once again.

 

Joey Porter, CB, Penn State

Detroit Lions 2023 draft watch: 7 players, including PSU CB Joey Porter Jr.  - Pride Of Detroit

Porter might not reach the heights as a prospect of Gardner a year ago, but he’s still a phenomenal player who should go in the top ten of the draft. He is a physically dominant specimen on the outside, 6-2 with long arms that make him a nightmare matchup at the catch point. He moves phenomenally as well, with the ability to turn and run with almost any receiver on vertical routes and to break explosively downhill on passes thrown in front of him.

Physicality is Porter’s number one tool. He will walk up to the line and start the play by punching the opposing wide receiver in the chest, stopping them from getting into their route before they can make it more than a yard downfield. He does this while staying in balance so he can turn in any direction, flipping his hips quickly to avoid being beaten over the top or breaking downhill to erase slant routes. He is very good at using the sideline as an extra defender, and with his speed and long arms he is almost impossible to beat on vertical routes. At times though he can be a little too eager to grab on, and I expect his first couple years in the NFL he will produce some frustrating penalties, while still providing generally excellent coverage.

The biggest questions I have about Porter are around versatility. He pretty much just played press man coverage in college, and he was physically overwhelming enough that he didn’t have to mix things up. He will face more challenging situations in the NFL, receivers who are more skilled at quick releases from the line and schemes designed to attack this style of play. The few times he was asked to play zone coverage he would sometimes get lost or leave position to play too aggressively. This is likely a matter of experience as much as anything else, as he generally shows very good intelligence on the field, an ability to read and predict routes in front of him. I think he can develop into a more complete player down the line, and I wouldn’t let this bother me too much if he’s available for my team.

 

Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

NFL Combine notes: Illini CB Witherspoon the 'complete package' - Chicago  Sun-Times

Witherspoon isn’t as physically and athletically imposing as the other top cornerbacks in the draft, but he makes up for it with his attitude and aggression. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a cornerback lay out as many people as Witherspoon does, with at least one play each game where he flies downhill and buries a ball-carrier into the ground. He can sometimes be a bit too aggressive and get out of position, but the splash plays make him a rare player, a cornerback who can be just as dangerous defending the run as he is against the pass.

It's easy to get caught up on Witherspoon’s physicality as a tackler, but he’s also very effective when asked to play in coverage. He’s capable of sharp cuts to match the route in front of him, though he does sometimes get a little off-balance, which he can and will clean up at the next level. He’s incredibly explosive breaking downhill and makes very good plays on the ball. He’s at his best when he can sit several yards off the line and read the play in front of him, giving him the ability to shut down quick routes as they develop.

It will be interesting to see how Witherspoon ends up being used in the NFL. His quickness and his physicality would make him one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league, but that’s less valuable than someone who can genuinely dominate on the outside. The best-case scenario for him is probably someone who can play on the outside in early-down situations and then bounce into the slot when opposing offenses throw three or four receivers out there, though that sort of versatility and scheme knowledge could take some time to develop. This concerns me enough that I probably wouldn’t grab him in the top half of the first round, but if it all comes together he has the ceiling to be a rare playmaking force on the defensive side that offenses have to be aware of no matter where he lines up on the field.

 

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon | NFL Draft Scouting Report

Gonzalez is one of the toughest evaluations in the draft this year. He is a sensational athlete who dominated at the Combine, and he shows off this rare movement ability on the field, changing direction and covering ground in the way other players simply cannot do. He has good size as well, and basically every tool you could ask for in a cornerback. The only thing he doesn’t have is consistent tape showing him shutting down opposing receivers.

This isn’t to say Gonzalez’s tape is bad. It’s just kind of blank. The scheme he played in college asked him to be very passive, dropping a lot into deep zones that surrendered easy passes underneath. Every now and then he would be asked to play tighter man coverage, and there were moments where he looked really good doing this. But it never really all came together. He’d flip his hips and run with the opposing receiver with ease, then lose a contested catch. He’d track a receiver stride-for-stride on a slant route, and then not make a play on the ball. He’d get his hands on a receiver with a perfect jam, but not really have the strength to impact the route. He’d be in perfect position and have the movement skills to stay with a receiver’s break, but wouldn’t anticipate it enough to actually erase him in coverage.

Gonzalez has all the tools to be an elite coverage cornerback, and he really isn’t that far away from putting it all together. In another college system that had challenged him more, he may have already figured it out. After a couple of years to sort things out in the NFL, there is a decent chance he could emerge as a genuine superstar. But he also has tremendous bust potential if he can’t take this next step, and I see him more as a gamble late in the first round than someone I’d be willing to pass up on surer things for.

 

Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

New York Giants 2-Round Mock Draft: Finding a CB1 and solving center

Banks is a sensational athlete who I will bet on turning into a good and possibly elite cornerback in a few years, once he irons out the glaring holes currently in his game. He can be too grabby when he tries to play physical and will draw a number of penalties. He doesn’t make great plays on the ball, though he’s usually in good position to do so and probably just needs a little more experience. And he doesn’t do much in the way of route recognition, which means he’s often a beat slow getting to where he needs to go. Again, experience and repetition should hopefully get him there.

When it’s all working for Banks, he can be a truly dangerous weapon on the defensive side. He has experience playing a variety of techniques, either in man where he can flip his hips and run with receivers without a care in the world or in zone where his explosive speed allows him to make sharp breaks on the football. Even if he’s beaten, his 4.35 speed is enough to erase any gaps and get him back into position.

Banks is a very similar player to Gonzalez, and I’ve probably actually seen more from him that I like on film so far. So why do I have Banks ranked lower? Because Banks is a couple years older than Gonzalez, and when we’re talking about two elite athletes with holes in their game, I’m more worried about the player who has had longer to patch these holes and hasn’t figured it out yet. Banks probably has less downside, and their ceilings are comparable. But I think there’s a much better chance that Banks settles in as a talented but frustrating NFL starter, while Gonzalez is more likely to pull everything together to become a true superstar.

 

Brian Branch, S/CB, Alabama

2023 NFL Draft: Scouting Alabama safety Brian Branch and his fit at the  next level - The Athletic

Branch played primarily as a slot cornerback in college, and that’s where I expect him to spend most of his career in the NFL as well. This is largely a matter of necessity. He doesn’t have the size to play as a box safety, nor the athleticism to play cornerback on the outside. He might be able to fill the role of a traditional safety in a deep zone, but I worry his lack of speed will limit him there. And his best skills come to the forefront in man-to-man coverage, so the ideal outcome would be to let him stick in the slot and master that position.

Branch is a polished coverage man who does a good job reading the routes in front of him and sticking with quick-cutting receivers. He doesn’t bite on fakes, and he never loses his balance. He can be vulnerable to attacks over the top, and at times he gives ground a little too easily underneath. These flaws can be covered by experience and by good defensive scheming, and I don’t have many concerns about his coverage skills long-term.

Branch is an almost sure-thing NFL starter with very little upside beyond that, almost the prototypical second-round pick. Positionally he will always be limited, and he doesn’t have the dynamic ability needed to become a star in the slot. He’s a good tackler, but only because he almost always slow-plays things. He has the burst to make very impressive closing plays, but if he’s asked to change direction while coming downhill, he’ll often end up whiffing on the tackle. Plug him in on your defense and be satisfied with what he gives you, but don’t ask him to do much more.

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