2018 Season Preview: Part Two

On Tuesday I went through every division and broke down what record I expected every team to finish at. Today I’ll get into the other big predictions of the year, who will win the major awards. As always, these awards are as much about narrative as they are about production. You can’t just look for who will have the best season. You also have to try to predict who will have the best story to go along with their season. Which means this is somehow even more random and pointless than Tuesday’s predictions.

Oh, and if you’re into that sort of thing I also have a Super Bowl prediction at the bottom.

Let’s just get football started already.

Awards

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns

Other possibilities: Sam Darnold, Calvin Ridley, Saquon Barkley

Everyone is still desperately searching for some spark of life in Cleveland, and this may finally be the year that it arrives. They have torn down their roster and reshaped it with an absurd quantity of young talent, and now it’s time to plug in their most recent savior at the quarterback position. Mayfield is currently stuck on the bench, but that won’t last long, only until Hue Jackson starts feeling the seat getting hot beneath him. And while he won’t light the world on fire when he eventually takes over, he will avoid being an embarrassment to the franchise, which will make him stand out against all the other young quarterbacks the Browns have trotted out over the years.

Currently the only rookie quarterback who has earned a starting spot is Darnold, and he’ll have the edge when it comes to counting stats at the end of the year. But the talent around him is not as good as it is in Cleveland, and he has more room to grow before he’s truly ready to play at an NFL level. There will be some ugly games—sub 50% completion with three or four interceptions—and that will be enough to keep him out of the running for this award, even though I’d still take his long term upside over Mayfield’s.

As much quarterback talent as there was in this year’s draft, I have to imagine one of them is going to take home the award. The path to the starting role is a bit shaky for both Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen is in the worst situation of any quarterback in the league. Should all the quarterbacks falter, the best bet for the skill positions are Ridley and Barkley.

Ridley will be a key piece in a high flying offense in Atlanta, and if he can have a few big games in high profile matchups he could swing the conversation his way. Barkley is an early favorite, and his habit of making explosive plays that show up on every highlight will keep him in it. But people are expecting too much from the Giants, and as they wallow through another disappointing year some of the dissent will inevitably turn against their talented but undisciplined running back.

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers

Other possibilities: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Bradley Chubb, Josh Jackson

James does everything for a defense that has the potential to jump into the conversation among the best in the league. He will snag a few interceptions playing over the deep middle, make some hard hits coming up in run defense, and impress shutting down tight ends in man to man coverage. He has the potential to fill up the stat sheet, and provided no one else stacks up big sack or interception totals he could have the most complete resume by the end of the year.

Fitzpatrick is a very similar player to James, just with more polish and less athleticism. He is probably more ready to contribute as a disciplined team defender, but he won’t fill up the highlight reel and stat sheet the way James will. He’ll also be stuck on a worse team, drawing much less praise for what might ultimately be a better rookie campaign.

I mentioned the possibility of putting up big sack or interception numbers, and the two players most suited to do this are Chubb and Jackson. Chubb was the most polished pass rusher in last year’s draft, and he’ll get plenty of opportunity to face single blocks with Von Miller terrorizing quarterbacks from the other side. If Denver’s defense leaps back to the level it was at a couple years ago, Chubb will be a big reason why.

The Packers spent their first two selections on cornerbacks this year, and either of them has a shot at the award. But if I had to put money on one, I’d actually go with their second round pick Jackson. Though he has some issues to polish before he can be truly reliable in coverage, ball skills is one area he certainly isn’t lacking in. I could easily see him snagging five or six interceptions as offenses target the occasional big play they will be able to hit over top of him, giving him a Marcus Peters like shot at the award.

Coach of the Year – Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers

Other Possibilities: Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid, Bill Belichick

This award goes to whichever coach exceeds expectations the most and ultimately makes the postseason. I have four teams rising to the playoffs after missing last year. If the Packers make it, no one will even glance at Mike McCarthy, giving all the credit (rightfully so) to the return to health of Aaron Rodgers. The health boost will also stifle some of the Bill O’Brien campaign, and John Harbaugh has been around so long that people have forgotten just how amazing a coach he is. That leaves Lynn as the favorite for this award if the Chargers do as I expect and finally play to the level of their talent to win the division.

There are a couple more outside names who could earn it if their teams fare better than I expect. Shanahan has a reputation as an offensive genius, and that will only grow if he can turn Jimmy Garoppolo into a star bright enough to carry a mediocre 49ers team into the playoffs. And Reid will get credit for boldness, after casting aside a quarterback who took him to the playoffs three straight seasons for a raw and unproven second year player. Reid’s challenge this year will be to combine player development and scheme in a way to get the most out of Pat Mahomes, and if he can do so it will be fascinating to see whether people can overlook his (mostly deserved) reputation for poor in game management to reward him for the less tangible aspects of coaching.

Also, Belichick for good measure. Because everyone knows he’s the best coach in the league, and if no one else runs away with this award he’s as good a default as any.

Comeback Player of the Year – Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Other Possibilities: Andrew Luck, JJ Watt, Odell Beckham

2017 was a brutal year for injuries, and some of the best players in the league will be coming back to full strength this year. Any one of the players listed above could take home this award (as well as some longer shots, like David Johnson or Deshaun Watson), and I went with Rodgers mostly because he’s the quarterback for a team I think will make the playoffs. When healthy Rodgers is still the best quarterback in the league, and merely playing at his normal level will be enough to win him this award. The toughest competition he will face will come from Luck, but I expect Luck to be a bit rusty, and the Colts will be out of the playoff race by the time he’s back to full strength.

Watt has missed most of the past two seasons, and it will be very interesting to see what he is and is not capable of when he finally makes it back on the field. It’s possible he gets back to his normal dominant self, but it’s also possible that his repeated back injuries have sapped his once spectacular athleticism.

Beckham is at a disadvantage because he’s a wide receiver and because his reputation across the league isn’t stellar, but he is capable of putting together a season where he leads the league in both yards and touchdowns, the sort of production that would be hard to ignore, especially if the Giants can take a leap forward and make a run at the playoffs.

Defensive Player of the Year – Joey Bosa, DE, Los Angeles Chargers

Other possibilities: Aaron Donald, Harrison Smith, Fletcher Cox

Donald is a destroyer of worlds, and his life will only be easier this season with Ndamukong Suh beside him. He’ll top double digit sacks once again, and assuming the Rams live up to expectations he should be the favorite for this award. But it’s difficult to claim it in back to back seasons, and I felt like going for someone a little off board.

People finally seem to be realizing just how incredible Smith is as a player on every level of the field. He’s a shut down safety in deep coverage, a lockdown defender matched up against tight ends and running backs, and a force against the run coming down into the box. He does whatever Mike Zimmer asks of him, and he does it at an insanely high level. If the Vikings finish at the top of the league defensively again, they are going to have some player get buzz for the award, likely either Smith or whoever produces the most sacks out of Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. Similarly, an elite defensive performance from the Eagles will bring attention to their best defensive player, though Cox will need to elevate his sack production to earn the award.

The past couple years this award has gone to a player on a team that has leapt from obscurity into the playoff mix. Two years ago it was Khalil Mack tearing offensive tackles to pieces on an otherwise miserable Raiders defense (I’m sure they’re glad to have him, and they’ll do whatever they can to keep him around for years). Last year it was Donald, doing the same stuff he’s done for years but finally on a winning team.

The player who fits the bill this year is Bosa. With double digit sacks in each of his first two seasons, he has already established himself as one of the premier defensive players in the league. He has the potential to go even further this season, elevating his count to 15 or more sacks as the Chargers race to an AFC West title. He is an elite pass rusher and just as good against the run, and this award could be a nice boost to his younger brother’s case for being the number one overall selection in next year’s draft.

MVP – Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Other possibilities: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers

The mainstays of this contest will be there as always. Brady is going to fall off one of these days, but until it happens I’m not going to bet on it. Rodgers is still lethal when he’s on the field, and the Packers will be leaning on him just as much as ever, giving him a chance to put up monster stats. And the decline of Ryan has been vastly overstated, and the MVP of two years ago could be in excellent shape for a statistical bounceback and another run at the award.

But I think this is the year that Brees finally brings home the elusive trophy. One of the best quarterbacks of all time, his rotten luck has caused him to lag behind his contemporaries when it comes to this award. Peyton Manning has five, Brady has three, and Brees is stuck at zero, despite a statistical resume that stacks up against the other two.

The story of Brees last year was mostly around his apparent decline, but that was a product of people looking at the wrong numbers. Yes, he had his lowest totals in passing yardage and touchdowns since his days in San Diego, but this drop was in volume only, and he remained an absolute terror in all the efficiency categories. He led the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and net yards per attempt. In fact, despite ranking only ninth in pass attempts he finished fourth in passing yards and led the league in passes completed.

The efficiency will still be there for Brees this year, and the volume will pick up as well. With Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games, they will lean more heavily on the pass early in the season. There will be a few more games where they have to battle down the wire, giving Brees more opportunities to air it out down the field. I could easily see him leading the league in yards again (for the eighth time in his career!), and his touchdown numbers will jump back to his usual level as well.

Super Bowl

Atlanta Falcons over New England Patriots

Two years later, the Falcons finally get their revenge.

I’d really like to pick someone else to represent the AFC, just for the sake of variety. The problem is, there’s really no one else I can talk myself into. The Steelers are the most consistent team besides the Patriots in the conference, but they have struggled against New England for years, and certain things around the team make me feel like they’re trending in the wrong direction (the change of offensive coordinator, the absence of Ryan Shazier, the prolonged holdout of Le’Veon Bell). This team seems to come up short every year, and I don’t know why 2018 would be any different.

So who else in the AFC could challenge the Patriots? The Jaguars took a good run at it last year, but I expect them to fall significantly back this season. The Chargers have the talent to give New England problems, with an elite pass rush and cornerbacks that can erase the quick throws for Brady. But outside of Philip Rivers this team has essentially no playoff experience, and it’s hard to buy into them making a run this season. More likely we’re talking a year or two down the road.

If I was given a choice of New England versus the field, I honestly don’t know which way I would go. This feels like a safe bet, picking the one consistently elite team in a weak conference.

The NFC is a completely different story. I have the Falcons, Rams, Eagles, Packers, Saints, and Vikings as the playoff representatives, and I could honestly see any of these teams going on a run and making the Super Bowl. The toughest pick would probably be Green Bay, as the one team that has the most ways it could lose a game. Rodgers is enough to carry them to a victory against any opponent, but asking him to do it for three straight games is tough, when the other five representatives outmatch the Packers at virtually every other position.

The Rams and the Vikings are two teams that are loaded with talent that I can’t bring myself to pick because of the quarterbacks. Either Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins can play well enough to ride these talented rosters far into the playoffs, but with the exception of last season the general rule in the playoffs is to bet on the more reliable quarterback. And even despite Carson Wentz’s MVP caliber performance a year ago, I’m going to lump him in with this group as well. It is extremely difficult to repeat as Super Bowl representatives, and I think the Eagles will miss out on a lot of the good breaks they got a year ago (most notably home field advantage).

That leaves a pair of bitter rivals in the Falcons and the Saints. New Orleans has my pick for MVP, a lot of talented offensive weapons, and some good young defenders who could pull together to form an above average unit. But just as I picked the Falcons to win the division, I have to stick with them to pull out the conference victory as well. They are deeper and more experienced than the Saints, and they are my pick for the best team in the NFC in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Atlanta should have won the Super Bowl two years ago. They outplayed the Patriots in every way in that game and needed several ridiculously bad breaks to blow their massive lead. In the two years since though, these teams have gone in opposite directions. The Patriots have lost several key contributors from their last championship roster, most notably Nate Solder and Malcolm Butler. The Falcons haven’t added a lot of new talent, but they have grown in experience, now sending out a defense that measures up against the best in the league. They are top to bottom the most complete roster in the NFL, and I think this year the franchise will finally grab the elusive Super Bowl title.