2018 NFC North Preview

I’ve been through the other seven divisions, and now it’s time to get to the NFC North, possibly the most interesting and most competitive division in the entire league this year. I had this all ready to go, until the blast of news on Saturday forced me to rewrite half of it. This division is fascinating, and it only got more so with the addition of one of the best players in football. And I cannot wait for it to get started a week from today.

Minnesota Vikings

Best Case Scenario:

This team made it within a game of the Super Bowl a year ago, and whatever you may think about Kirk Cousins, he is certainly an improvement over Case Keenum. The defense is absolutely stacked on every level, and most of their players are still just arriving in the primes of their careers. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen form arguably the best receiver combination in the league, Dalvin Cook looked like a star before tearing his ACL a year ago, and they’ve done a good job filling out the margins of their roster with free agent additions like Sheldon Richardson, Riley Reiff, and Latavius Murray. The only below average unit on this entire roster is the offensive line, and if they can find a way to keep that from killing them they will have a chance to push deep into the playoffs once again.

Worst Case Scenario:

There are two major concerns for this team: the offensive line and the quarterback (I suppose kicker is an issue too, but what are the chances of a Vikings season being ruined by a single missed field goal?) The line was their weak point even before suffering a rash of preseason injuries, and if they can’t keep the pocket clean, Cousins is in for a long season. Many people have claimed that he is going to be surrounded by the best supporting cast of his career, and while Minnesota's receivers are definitely better than what he had in Washington, the pass protection will be a major step down. Of the other top teams in the NFC, the Vikings are the only one without either an elite quarterback or someone like Jared Goff or Carson Wentz who could develop to reach that level. Cousins has a clear ceiling, and that may put a ceiling on the Vikings as well.

Player to Watch: Anthony Barr, LB

Barr is obviously not an under the radar player, but on a team loaded with defensive stars he can often get lost behind Harrison Smith, Xavier Rhodes, Danielle Hunter, Linval Joseph, and Everson Griffen. But in a lot of ways the explosive combination of size and athleticism that Barr brings is the key to this entire defense, and as he enters a contract year he may fill an even more crucial role. Minnesota’s pass rush was dominant at the beginning of 2017 but wore down as the season progressed, and they need to find a way to keep Hunter and Griffen fresh. Barr was a dominant pass rusher in college, and even though he’s played primarily off the ball in the NFL those skills are still there. The coaches have experimented with him switching to defensive end in certain situations, and if he can provide a reliable pass rush this defense could be even better than it was a year ago.

Green Bay Packers

Best Case Scenario:

This is still the Aaron Rodgers show, and after the massive contract he just signed that will remain the case at least through 2022. If he is healthy and at his best, he is a weapon like no other in football, a quarterback who effortlessly combines intelligence, athleticism, and arm strength to attack defenses in every conceivable way. Though the Packers lack star caliber talent elsewhere on their roster, they have enough good pieces to keep Rodgers’s life from becoming total hell (in other words, they aren’t Seattle or Indianapolis), and they will remain competitive in the NFC playoff picture and in the division throughout the season. The playoffs might be a different story, where they will likely face four consecutive opponents with much more complete rosters. I don’t know if Rodgers can carry this team to a Super Bowl victory, but I suppose in the playoffs anything can happen.

Worst Case Scenario:

Obviously the worst case scenario is what happened last year, with Rodgers getting hurt and this team bottoming out in his absence. But even assuming he stays healthy, there is a real path to this team missing the playoffs. They don’t have the depth of talent across their roster of teams like the Rams, Vikings, Eagles, Falcons, or Saints, and things could turn very messy fighting for the last slot in the playoffs if all those teams meet expectations. The Packers have invested a lot of high draft picks in their secondary, but that makes them very young on the back end, and very vulnerable. This defense can be exploited for big plays, this offense lacks weaponry around the quarterback, and if Rodgers is anything less than superhuman, the Packers will face an uphill battle for a wild card spot.

Player to Watch: Dean Lowry, DT/DE

Before you accuse me of picking Lowry just because he lived in the same dorm as me my junior year of college, I want to be clear that this was only part of the reason I selected him. Entering his third year in the league, Lowry has established himself as a very valuable piece of the rotation along Green Bay’s quietly excellent defensive front. After starting several games last year, he’s now looking up the depth chart at Mike Daniels, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Kenny Clark, but he should still see major time coming off the bench. Lowry is a tremendous athlete who can bounce through several spots on the defensive line, attacking from multiple angles against both the run and the pass. Green Bay hasn’t been able to fill the edge rusher role following the decline of Clay Matthews, but they generate solid pressure from their down linemen, which will make life a lot easier for their young secondary.

Detroit Lions

Best Case Scenario:

The Lions are a popular pick as a sleeper team, and if they weren’t fighting an uphill battle in the loaded NFC I could find a way to talk myself into them as well. They’ve settled into a steady rhythm in the passing game with Matthew Stafford and the extremely underrated receiving duo of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, and after a season undercut by ruinous offensive line injuries they have the ability to be an above average unit along that front as well. Their defense still raises concerns, but they have several good playmakers at the back end and some interesting young talent in the front seven. I’m not sure how high the ceiling is, but if everything breaks right they might be able to push for the last spot in the NFC playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario:

Detroit is another team with a fairly fixed window of potential outcomes. As much as I struggle to see them making a run to the top of the conference, I don’t really see them ending up at the bottom of it either. Their passing attack is good enough to keep them in any game, and while their defense isn’t going to lock down the opposition, it isn’t vulnerable to being torn to shreds either. They will win most of the games they play against lesser competition, and they might be able to snag a few upsets along the way as well. But their schedule is brutal, and the sort of leap they’d need to make to reach the playoffs is probably beyond the talent on this team.

Player to Watch: Kerry Hyder, DE

The Lions have struck out with most of the high picks they've invested on the defensive side of the ball, but they may have someone down the depth chart that can make up for it. Hyder was a pleasant surprise in 2016, coming off the bench to put together eight sacks in his first season as a regular player. He slowed down as the season went along, with only a single sack over his final seven games, but he offered a potential spark to a defense desperately in need of playmakers up front. Unfortunately, his 2017 season was erased by a torn Achilles, and he’s back fighting for a rotational role along Detroit’s defensive front. I don’t know if he can repeat the production he had two years ago, but the potential for him to do so provides one of the rare points of upside for this Lions team.

Chicago Bears

Best Case Scenario:

Unlike the Lions, there is definitely a scenario in which I can see the Bears breaking out. This team has rebuilt itself from the ground up over the past two years, and while so far none of their young players have really emerged as stars, most have proven themselves to be very capable starters. With players like Leonard Floyd, Cody Whitehair, and Eddie Jackson filling the depth of the roster, this team is only a couple of emerging stars away from competing with the best competition they’ll face. They found one of these stars with the trade for Kahlil Mack, and now they will look to their young players to join him as the faces of this team. Mitch Trubisky had an up and down rookie year, but he has the potential to experience Jared Goff like second year growth, with a new cast of weapons and a coach who will play to his strengths. Roquan Smith can contribute immediately to provide the playmaking talent they need on the defensive side, and they have plenty of other young players who could step forward also. They’re probably at least another year away from truly competing, and consistency will be hard to wrangle. But I can definitely imagine the Bears pulling together a couple noteworthy performances against tough competition, and heading into 2019 with high hopes for the future. 

Worst Case Scenario:

Building around youth is always a terrifying thing in the NFL. You never know what you’re going to get on a week by week basis, and a few bad moments can lead to loss of composure and meltdowns that can throw an entire season off course. For every story like last year’s Rams there are plenty like we’ve seen from the Buccaneers for the past decade, struggling to get the most out of players who always seem to be a step behind the development curve. This season will rise or fall based on the performances of players like Trubisky and Smith, potential stars who are still adjusting to the NFL. If they make these adjustments, the Bears can be a feisty opponent for anyone they face. If they fail, this team is only a few bad breaks away from picking near the top of the draft once again.

Player to Watch: Akiem Hicks, DE

I’ve highlighted nothing but defensive linemen in this division to this point, so why switch things up now? On a unit full of highly drafted talent, the 2016 free agent signing was Chicago’s best defensive player a year ago. Listed as a defensive end, Hicks plays pretty much anywhere along the defensive line, with the size at 332 pounds to stack up the middle and the movement skills to contribute farther to the outside. He isn’t going to fill up a stat sheet, but he does all the little things well to make this defense run. A veteran presence in the middle of their young front, if players like Floyd and Smith do break out they will likely owe a lot to Hicks for clearing the road ahead of them.