The Cynicism of the Quarterback Change

We’re rapidly approaching the end of the NFL season, which means it’s the time of year when teams really start getting stupid. Eleven weeks of action have effectively killed any early season optimism, leaving teams to face the wrath of fan bases that realize they’ve wasted yet another year. And as this time has come, we are once again witnessing an annual tradition: the pointless shuffling of the starting quarterbacks.

Over the past two weeks we have seen a couple truly perplexing quarterback decisions. The most glaring was the decision by Buffalo to bench Tyrod Taylor, a move that lasted only a single half before five interceptions by Nathan Peterman forced Taylor back into the game. Much less high profile (for several reasons) has been the pair of quarterback switches in Denver. Three weeks ago the Broncos benched Trevor Siemian for Brock Osweiler, only to realize to their horror that they were now starting Brock Osweiler, which prompted them to switch this week to last year’s first round pick Paxton Lynch.

These moves are as exhausting as they are predictable. Across the league people have mostly shrugged their shoulders, as you would expect from a series of moves involving players named Taylor, Peterman, Siemian, Osweiler, and Lynch. These teams likely aren’t going anywhere regardless of who they put under center, and it makes some sense that they would want to try something different to turn their seasons around.

The problem is, this isn’t why they made these moves. Buffalo and Denver didn’t switch quarterbacks because they hoped they would be ale to compete. They did it entirely to appease the local fanbases, making a decision that flies against all football logic and hurts their team for the sake of public relations.

First of all, we should make one thing very clear: Taylor and Siemian are the best quarterbacks on each of these rosters. You won’t hear much debate about Taylor after Peterman’s debacle last Sunday, but I think there might still be some people holding Denver’s performance against Siemian. But we saw both Siemian and Osweiler play a season ago, and Siemian was clearly better. And the coaches saw enough of both Lynch and Siemian prior to the season to convince them that Siemian was the better option at the start of the year, and nothing has happened that would change that.

These two teams made decisions at the quarterback position that made them worse, and they did so fully understanding that they would make them worse. And while they can spout half baked excuses for why they did so—Buffalo wanted to get a look at their rookie quarterback, Denver wants to know if they can move on from Lynch if they end up with a high draft pick—the real reason is much more cynical. The fans are frustrated with the product they’ve seen on the field, and it’s far easier for the coaches and owners to make the quarterbacks the scapegoats than to take blame on themselves.

This isn’t a new phenomenon, but it’s particularly glaring for two teams that, despite their mediocre performances, are still very much in the race for the AFC Wild Card spot. Buffalo and Denver aren’t good football teams, but there are only four or five teams in the AFC that fall into that category, and this year a bad team is going to make the playoffs. When Denver benched Siemian, they were 3-4. When Buffalo benched Taylor, they were 5-4. Currently the last playoff spot in the AFC belongs to Baltimore, at 5-5.

There was no rational justification for any of these moves. If the sole goal of the coaching staff was to put out the best football team, Taylor and Siemian would be the starters for each of these teams.

But of course, that’s not the way things work. The first goal of an NFL head coach is not to win games—it’s to keep from getting fired. And while those two are pretty strongly correlated, they don’t always line up perfectly, and the handling of the quarterback position is another area like conservative fourth down decisions and a lack of aggression going for two where NFL coaches embrace flawed decisions in order to try to save their own skins.

It is underappreciated just how much power an NFL fanbase has on the team they follow. The fans are the ones who buy the tickets and the merchandise, money that flows to the owner who decides the coach’s fates. So if the fans are angry, the owner starts to get nervous, and if the owner gets nervous, the coach gets nervous as well.

It’s very clear in both Buffalo and Denver that these factors played into the decisions made at the quarterback position. John Elway is likely the most famous GM in the league, and after he assumed most of the credit for building their Super Bowl team, it was inevitable that he received most of the blame for their failure to sustain that level of performance after Peyton Manning’s retirement. His frustrations became clear in the media, calling out the team for being “soft”, and head coach Vance Joseph saw how quickly the blame could be turned towards him. So he tried to get ahead of it, shifting the blame to the shaky performance of his starting quarterback, ignoring the fact that Siemian has been everything they expected when they went into the season with him as their best option.

The behind the scenes struggle hasn’t been as public in Buffalo, but there has been quite a bit of speculation that the decision to start Peterman was not entirely made by Sean McDermott. There are rumors that these orders came from the ownership, to make it easier to cut him and save $16 million next year. These are the sort of calculations that truly drive NFL decision making, and these are the decisions that may have doomed Buffalo’s and Denver’s seasons.

Interestingly enough, this season has given us a chance to see this sort of process working in the other direction as well. While losing streaks have convinced Buffalo and Denver to bench their starting quarterbacks for inferior options, a series of wins have left the Minnesota Vikings with their best quarterback stuck on the bench.

Minnesota’s quarterback situation is a bit complicated, so let’s go over everything involved. In 2014 the Vikings spent a first round pick on Teddy Bridgewater, and after his first two seasons it looked like they had their quarterback of the future. He looked ready to break out headed into last year, before a random and devastating knee injury knocked him out. Desperate, the Vikings traded another first round pick for Sam Bradford, who played the best football of his career last season.

This is where they were at headed into 2017, with Bradford leading the way and Bridgewater potentially coming back. They signed journeyman backup Case Keenum as insurance, which paid off big time when Bradford got hurt following a stellar performance in their opening game. Bradford’s injury lingered, and Keenum improved after some early struggles, leading the team on what is now a seven game winning streak and holding off Bridgewater after he was cleared to play again.

It appears there is a lot going on here, but it is actually pretty simple. Bridgewater is the best quarterback on the team, and he is their long term answer at the position. When the 2018 season starts, both Bradford and Keenum will be 30 years old. Bridgewater will still only be 25, the same age as “young” quarterbacks Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott.

Keenum was never meant to be a long term answer at the position, and his performance this year shouldn’t have done anything to change that. He’s putting up excellent numbers, but most of the credit for that deserves to go to the talent around him. The offensive line is significantly better than anything either Bradford or Bridgewater has ever played with, and the combo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs is possibly the best receiving duo in the league. Keenum has done a lot of good things (especially moving in the pocket to evade pressure and extend plays), but he has regularly gotten away with poor decisions and inaccurate throws thanks to the talent around him.

Sooner or later things are going to fall apart for Keenum, and the Vikings will have to turn to Bridgewater. A lot of people have expressed concerns that he may be rusty, but that’s not going to get any better with him sitting on the bench. The Vikings only have five games remaining, and they need to find a way to get Bridgewater some reps during this time. Otherwise they may have no choice but to stick with Keenum through what they hope will be a deep playoff run.

(An underappreciated part of this story is the fact that all three quarterbacks are free agents at the end of the year. Bridgewater has the youth, and he is beloved in the Vikings locker room, and the coaches have been adamant that he is their long term plan. But it would still be a lot better if he got some work in on film before they had to think about offering him a new deal this offseason.)

Minnesota’s coaching staff knows that Bridgewater is their best quarterback, and they have all but said as much. But until Keenum plays poorly and they lose a game because of it, they can’t bring themselves to make the switch. Quarterbacks like Taylor and Siemian received unfair blame for their teams’ losses, and now Keenum is receiving unfair credit for his team’s wins.

This is why it is so tricky to handle quarterbacks in the NFL. At any other position players rotate routinely throughout the game, and it would be possible to get a look at someone like Peterman or Bridgewater without having to make a big, bold move. But quarterback is a unique position in all of sports in that there really is only one. He plays every snap of every game, and any move you make to change that is an all or nothing proposition.

Changing quarterback isn’t just about changing one player on the field. It has become a statement about the state of the franchise as a whole. Buffalo’s defense fell to pieces over several weeks, and the only way they could convey to their fans that they were trying to make a change was to bench a player who had nothing to do with it. Denver had no hope of competing this year, but because their fans didn’t realize that they have to keep shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. And the Vikings can’t afford to make a change in the middle of the winning streak, even if it is the best move for their team going forward.

If the only goal of the coaching staffs was to put the best team on the field, then Taylor, Siemian, and Bridgewater would be starting right now. (Actually Colin Kaepernick would probably be starting in Denver, but that’s a whole different story.) But the pressures from fans, media, and ownership drive these decisions every bit as much as the actions on the fields, forcing coaches to make decisions that they know will ultimately do more harm than good.