Yesterday
I ran through the bottom half of the league. Today, I turn to the teams that
actually matter. Once again I’ve split these sixteen into three tiers, starting
with the Super Bowl contenders, then looking at the low upside teams in playoff
contention, and finishing off with the teams I genuinely don’t know how to
judge. This last category is a lot bigger than normal, in what has so far been the
most perplexing NFL season that I can recall.
The Teams That Matter
In
the past it’s been pretty easy to fill out this category, but that’s not the
case this year. All the best teams in the NFL seem to have something glaringly
wrong, something that has already cost them at least one game. But the
mainstays are still there, and the consistency of their success makes it easy
to pick out the ones I feel most confident will be alive competing at the very
end of the year.
Seattle Seahawks (5-2)
There
were a lot of trades made in the week leading up to the deadline , but
none will have nearly as big an impact on this season’s race as Seattle’s
acquisition of Duane Brown. Brown is past his prime and a league average left
tackle at best, but the jump to league average from where Seattle has been
cannot be overstated. One player isn’t going to salvage the mess that is
Seattle’s offensive line, but it might be enough to take some of the pressure
off Russell Wilson.
Sunday’s
victory over Houston was the perfect encapsulation of where Seattle is as a
team. All total their offense put up 479 yards. Wilson accounted for 482 of
this. Between sacks and other rushing attempts, Seattle actually lost yards
when the ball wasn’t thrown or carried by Wilson. He is everything for this
team right now, and I’m skeptical of how far he can actually carry them. But
this is one of the better coached and managed teams in the league, and they
have a history of coming on strong down the stretch. And with no one else
stepping up in the NFC, I have to stick with them as the favorites in the
conference.
Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Philadelphia
has the best record in the league, and by now they’ve assumed the title of
consensus favorites to win it all. Their defense is every bit as good as we
expected coming into the year, dominating up front with arguably the best line
in the league and supported on the back end by a quietly excellent secondary.
This defense can carry the Eagles to the playoffs, which makes it even more
remarkable that they might not have to.
Philadelphia’s
offensive leap this year has been staggering to witness, and it has earned
Carson Wentz the title of MVP frontrunner. That’s a bit of an overreaction in
my eyes, but I can’t deny how excellent he’s been, an eye opening jump after
his subpar rookie season. Some of the credit has to go to the additions of
Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, as well as the growth of Nelson Agholor, but
Wentz is undeniably better than he was a year ago. Is he good enough to win a
Super Bowl? Maybe, though I’m hard pressed to trust a team without any prior
playoff experience, no matter how good they have looked thus far in the regular
season.
Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
I
don’t think people appreciate just how good the Vikings could be this year.
They’ve run out to the second best record in the league over the first eight
weeks of the year, powered by a dominant defense and an offense that has
finally gotten its act together. They’ve done this despite losing games of their best
running back, one of their starting wide receivers, and their top two
quarterbacks. Case Keenum has made this team as good as any in the league, and
we should begin seriously asking how good they could be with something other
than a third stringer under center.
We
may get the answer to this question sooner rather than later. Teddy Bridgewater
has been cleared for practice, and it sounds like he’s ready to come back.
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding him, and there’s no way to know how
rusty he’ll be when he steps onto a field for the first time in nearly two
years. But before his injury he was on track to becoming one of the best
quarterbacks in the league, and for the first time in his career he has the
makings of a real offense around him. As they’re constituted now, the Vikings
have a very limited ceiling. But with Bridgewater back, they could conceivably
rise to join the top ranks of the NFC.
New England Patriots (6-2)
The
Patriots are vulnerable. Every team is vulnerable, but it feels remarkable to
say that about New England. This team has been dominant for years, and it’s
strange to see a glaring, gigantic, and potentially fatal flaw, but there’s no
other way to describe the current state of New England’s pass defense. After
losing Chris Long, Jabaal Sheard, and Rob Ninkovich over the offseason, it
isn’t shocking that they have struggled to generate a pass rush. It is shocking
to see horrid coverage breakdowns from a secondary containing Malcolm Butler,
Stephon Gilmore, and Devin McCourty.
Bill
Belichick is probably the greatest coach in NFL history, and if anyone can
patch up a defense on the fly, it’s him. Even if he can’t, the Patriots have a
chance to make it through thanks to one of the deepest and most versatile
offensive supporting casts in the league. There were a few bumps as they
adjusted to life without Julian Edelman, but the new down the field passing
game is coming along nicely, and it will only get better as the pieces continue
clicking. New England is still very dangerous, but their margin for error is
slimmer than we expected.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
I
didn’t think we’d ever reach this point, but the Chiefs are a legitimate Super
Bowl threat. For years now I’ve dismissed their offense as boring and
toothless, but Andy Reid has quietly crafted one of the best schemes in the
league, perfectly building around his talent to create something unique and
dangerous. Alex Smith is still a limited player, but Reid uses him within those
limits as well as any coach in the league utilizes the players at his disposal.
It's
strange to say, but if there are concerns in Kansas City they are on the defensive
side of the ball. Their secondary and pass rush are still lethal, but they live
on turnovers, the sort of big plays that can dry up in a hurry. Their defensive
front and interior are below average, and good running teams like Pittsburgh
rip them to shreds by attacking the heart of this defense. For the first time
in years Kansas City’s offense is good enough to keep them alive in a shootout,
and now they just have to hope their defense can prevent them from having to do
so too often.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Right
now if I had to pick one team with the highest upside, I’d have to go with the Steelers. Through eight games their defense
has exceeded all expectations, with young players like Artie Burns and Stephon
Tuitt taking the next step while being joined by recent additions TJ Watt and
Joe Haden. This defense has been one of the best in the league over the first
half of the season, and for a team that’s won despite being below average on
that side of the ball for the past few years, this should be enough to make
them the Super Bowl favorites.
Strangely
the problems in Pittsburgh have come on the offensive side of the ball, where
they simply haven’t clicked. They’ve moved the ball okay, though Roethlisberger
can’t hit a deep shot to save his life, but they haven’t been able to convert
for touchdowns when they get deep into enemy territory. They rank ahead of only
Tennessee and Arizona in red zone touchdown percentage and have yet to reach 30
points in a game. But the potential is still there, and if they can clean up
their issues reaching the endzone, this could very easily be the best team in
the league.
Once You Get to the Playoffs Anything Can Happen,
Right?
These
teams have some good thing going for them, but they aren’t in position to
compete for a championship this year. The field is wide open enough that they
can make their way into the postseason, but after that they’ll likely come up
short against one of the teams from the tier above.
Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
The
race for the AFC wild card spots is going to get ugly. If the season ended
today they would go to Buffalo and Jacksonville, hardly intimidating
competition for a veteran team like Baltimore. The Ravens aren’t good, but no
one they’re competing against is either, and they have the benefit of
potentially getting healthy down the stretch to get them over the hump.
Through
the first half of the season Baltimore’s defense has been amazing, carrying an
offense that is as inept as it is boring. The offensive line has struggled since
losing Marshal Yanda for the season, and the devastation of their receiving
corps hasn’t made life for Joe Flacco any easier. But Jeremy Maclin and Mike
Wallace are coming back, and while that is far from an elite unit, it’s better
than what they’ve been working with. The health of Brandon Williams has helped
patch up some holes in the run defense that cost them earlier this year, giving
them a unit that might just be enough to carry this offense to a first round
exit.
Tennessee Titans (4-3)
This
was supposed to be the year that Tennessee took the next step, and it hasn’t
quite worked out that way. Their defense has continued to struggle, which isn’t
necessarily surprising, but it’s become a problem as their offense hasn’t taken
the leap forward that some expected. Their passing game is still impotent, and
they aren’t dominating on the ground either.
Tennessee
is still one of the more talented teams in the AFC, and I believe they’ll pull
things together down the stretch. Their losses have either come against decent
teams (Houston and Oakland) or without their quarterback (Miami). They have an
easy schedule going forward, and the health of Corey Davis could open things up
more for them on offense. But they are still more limited than I expected, and
a first round exit is probably the best they can hope for.
Buffalo Bills (5-2)
The
Bills were supposed to be tanking this year. Before the season started they
traded away their best young offensive and best young defensive players,
getting in return a couple of replacement level starters and some more draft
capital. They made no commitment to Tyrod Taylor, and they simply shrugged as
Anquan Boldin announced he would rather retire than play for them. There is no
way this team should be 5-2 and on pace for a playoff spot, yet here we are.
On
the one hand Buffalo has benefitted from playing an extremely easy schedule,
with wins already over the Buccaneers, Broncos, and Jets. On the other hand,
their schedule doesn’t get much harder, with games left against the Jets,
Colts, and a pair against the Dolphins. Right now the Bills have the inside
track to a playoff spot, and they’re playing well enough on both sides of the
ball to convince me they might be worthy of that spot. I doubt they are up to
competing with any of the top teams in the AFC, but they are far better than
they planned to be.
New Orleans Saints (5-2)
The
turnaround of the Saints defense is unbelievable, and I mean that in the “I
don’t believe iit” sense. After starting the season with thrashings by the
Vikings and the Patriots, a unit that looked like it would once again be among
the worst in the league flipped the switch, holding each offense they faced
during their five game winning streak to 24 points or fewer. Backed by a Drew
Brees led offense with a rejuvenated running game, this defense looks like it makes the Saints a real Super Bowl contender.
I’m
not convinced. First of all, we need to talk about the quarterbacks they’ve
faced. They caught Cam Newton during one of his frequent down stretches this
year. They shut out the zombie of Jay Cutler. And they danced through the NFC
North getting Matthew Stafford, Brett Hundley, and Mitch Trubisky. There is a
lot of young talent on this defense, and it is playing extremely well, but
sooner or later they are going to have to face an above average opponent, and
until I see that happen I can’t buy them as a championship team. Unfortunately,
that won’t happen until December, when they face Atlanta twice in a three week
stretch and give us the first real test of this intriguing but still unproven
defense.
I Have No Clue
This
group is a lot bigger this year than it has been in the past. There are a few
good teams this year and a few truly wretched teams, and everyone else seems to
change their mind on a week to week basis. The teams below can compete for the
playoffs, and a couple could even make their way to the Super Bowl. Or they
could crash and burn in a beautiful but inexplicable manner.
Carolina Panthers (5-3)
Carolina
is as hot and cold as any team in the league. One week they are dominating the
Patriots, and a couple weeks later they only manage three points against the
Bears. When their offense is clicking they are explosive and dangerous, but
when it’s not they are inept and helpless. This sort of streakiness isn’t
necessarily a bad thing—if they get hot at the right time, they can absolutely
win a championship—but it is certainly perplexing from an outside perspective.
This
team has upside, but it also has a lot of flaws that it may not be able to fix.
Their defense is mostly solid, but they still have some questionmarks on the
outside, and they are vulnerable to top tier NFL receivers. On offense they
simply cannot run the football, and no one has struggled more than first round
selection Christian McCaffrey. He was supposed to open another dimension of
this offense for Cam Newton, but right now he is simply an average slot
receiver and a well below average running back. And with the struggles Newton
has faced this year, it’s hard to believe he’ll be able to recapture his
consistent MVP form of two seasons ago, especially now that the injury to Greg
Olsen and the trade of Kelvin Benjamin have robbed him of two of his favorite
targets.
Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
It
shouldn’t be a surprise that the last two NFC Super Bowl representatives are
both in this group. For years now the AFC has been dominated by a rotation of
the Patriots, Steelers, and Peyton Manning, while the NFC has churned through a
seemingly endless series of one off competitors. We’re used to seeing teams
like the Falcons stumble coming off an NFC Championship, but I think we should
be a bit more surprised to see them sitting in third place in their division.
This team is just as stacked on offense as it was a year ago, and its defense
looked to be on an upward path.
If
you dig into the stats a little, it’s pretty easy to conclude that Atlanta is
better than their record indicates. They are top five offensively in both
passing and rushing yards per attempt. Their defense has struggled more than we
expected, but their offense is still extremely dangerous, held back only by an
uptick in turnovers and increased struggles in the Red Zone. Both of these
things could have been expected to regress some this year, but the extent to which their luck has flipped is difficult to believe. Atlanta has as much talent as any
team in the NFC, and if they make it into the playoffs they could push for
another deep run. But if their struggles continue, they could miss the playoffs
altogether.
Dallas Cowboys (4-3)
Dallas
is a weird team. A year ago they finished with the best record in the NFC, and
they were some Aaron Rodgers bullshit magic away from advancing to the
championship round. But all along there were signs that they could regress, and
those risks have all shown up so far this year. Their defense has been exposed
on a repeated basis, as you would expect from the lack of talent on that side
of the ball. Their offensive line has struggled to stay healthy and dominate,
breaking down the critical heart of the team.
There
are bright spots for Dallas, and there are not so bright spots. The bright
spots include the play of Dak Prescott and DeMarcus Lawrence, a pair of young
talents taking the next step at the most crucial positions on the field. The
less bright spots include the likely suspension of Ezekiel Elliott and the
continued inability to integrate Dez Bryant with their offense. Life has gotten
a lot tougher for Prescott this year, and with a difficult schedule ahead that includes
games against the Chiefs, Falcons, Seahawks, and a pair against the Eagles,
this dangerous team faces an uphill battle for a playoff spot.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)
How
far can a team with the worst starting quarterback in the league go? It’s an
interesting experiment, one the Jaguars seem committed to pulling off. Despite
watching Blake Bortles for three years, they made no move to replace or even
challenge him this offseason, spending big on their defense and rolling with
their nightmare under center. And so far this plan has been a success, as
Jacksonville’s defense has exploded onto the scene and carried the team into a
tie for the division lead.
This
team is due for some regression. They lead the league with 33 sacks in only
seven games, while no one else has even reached 28. Their defensive line is
fantastic, but it isn’t that good. Calais Campbell and Dante Fowler have
already set career highs in sacks, and Yannick Ngakoue is only 1.5 from
matching last year’s performance. These numbers are bound to fall off, and with
them the defense will slide as well. This is still definitely a top ten unit in
the NFL, but they need to be better than that, otherwise the burden is going to
shift onto the shoulders of their incapable passer.
Los Angeles Rams (5-2)
I
understand that teams can turn around under a new coaching staff, but I’m not
sure if I’ve seen anything like the Rams. A year ago they were the most inept offense
in the league, burdened by a poor offensive line and even worse quarterback
play. Adding Andrew Whitworth has certainly helped the former, and experience
and coaching have improved the latter, but that still doesn’t explain the
staggering turnaround on this side of the ball.
This
sort of sudden change always raises eyebrows. The Rams are playing out of their
minds right now, and that is something I can’t believe will last. Their line is
still shaky outside of their veteran left tackle. Goff has improved, but he’s
still a below average NFL starter. And the defense has holes at every level,
holes that teams will soon figure out how to exploit. The race for the NFC wild
card is going to be competitive, and even with this strong start to the year I
have a hard time seeing the Rams pulling it off, especially with games
remaining against Houston, Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Seattle.
The Texans
This is a tier I had to put together at the last minute. The
loss of Deshaun Watson completely changes the scope of things for Houston, and
for the entire AFC playoff race. In a single day the Texans went from favorites
in the AFC South to essentially eliminated. So I had to rewrite this section
and move them from the middle category to one of their own, since they no
longer deserve to be considered one of the teams in contention for the
playoffs.
Houston
Texans (3-4)
Before the injury to Watson, Houston was a low ceiling
playoff contender They’ve lost four games this year—one against Jacksonville
before they installed Watson, and three times since to New England, Kansas
City, and Seattle. Their schedule the rest of the way is much easier, with very
winnable games against Arizona, Baltimore, San Francisco, and twice against
Indianapolis. The in division matchups against Tennessee and Jacksonville will
be crucial, and without their rookie passer I can't see them pulling off these
wins.
Houston’s defense is banged up, and their offensive line is
still a mess. The only real difference from last year was Watson, who gave them
a chance to compete where they would have folded with Brian Hoyer or Brock
Osweiler. And as a young team with a mediocre coach, I can't see them bouncing
back from this, though they will at least have the opportunity to build on the
hope going into 2018.
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