Yesterday
I put together a mock draft as if every pick was made by me. Today I’m going to
try to predict what is actually going to happen. The first few picks will look
very similar, but after that things will take a sharp turn.
This
year is, obviously, a bit unusual. The normal pre-draft process got cut short,
and things definitely feel more open because of it. There seems to be less
consensus across the board, and more chance for things to go in an extremely
strange direction. So starting around pick four, I feel less confident in this
mock draft than I have in any that I have done in the past. Which is saying
something, because all mock drafts are typically terrible at forecasting how
the actual NFL will act.
Once
again, if you want to see more on any of these prospects, I’ve got detailed
scouting reports linked below.
1) Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
The top of this draft is fairly set and fairly obvious.
The Bengals desperately need a quarterback to rebuild their team around, and
Burrow is the best quarterback prospect of the past five years. I don’t think
there’s really any debate about this selection, either inside the Bengals
organization or outside.
2) Washington Redskins – Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Things
could get a bit more interesting with the second pick, but I’m fairly confident
the Redskins will do the smart thing and take the best player on the board.
There has been some speculation that they could decide to move on from Dwayne
Haskins, or try to trade the pick to a quarterback needy team. If Burrow was
still on the board I could see either as options. But there’s a decent dropoff
among the quarterback prospects, and Young is too talented for Washington to
pass up.
3) Detroit Lions – Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
I
think the most likely outcome of this pick is a trade. Either the Dolphins or
the Chargers will make a play to try to ensure they get their favorite quarterback,
and the Lions can slide back a couple spots and likely still get their favorite
player. But I don’t project trades in mock drafts, and if the Lions stay put I
think Okudah is the way they go.
4) New York Giants – Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson
This
pick is the real wild card that the entire draft will swing on. A trade is
certainly possible, though Dave Gettleman has never traded back at any point in
the draft during his time as a GM. Even if the Giants stay put, there are a
number of ways they could go. An offensive tackle is possible, though I have no
idea which tackle they would prefer. They could go for a defensive tackle like
Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw despite being mostly set at that position. In the
end though, Simmons definitely seems like a Gettleman type player. He’s a
souped up version of Shaq Thompson who Gettleman selected in the first round
when he was running Carolina in 2015. He would also continue the well
established trend of the Giants making draft picks I really don’t care for.
5) Miami Dolphins – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
The
second quarterback off the board is very much up in the air. Will a team trade
up to try to grab their guy? Will someone take a chance on Tua Tagovailoa? Will
Miami decide to pass on a quarterback this year, hoping to try again with a
higher pick in 2021? I don’t really know the answer to any of these questions,
but at this point I feel like there’s a slight edge to the Dolphins going the
“safer” route and taking the big, traditional passer out of Oregon with their
first pick.
6) Los Angeles Chargers – Tristan Wirfs, OG/OT, Iowa
The
offensive tackles are going to come off the board fast starting somewhere
around this point, but I honestly have very little idea what order they’ll go
in. I’ll put Wirfs here, because I think he fits what the Chargers plan to do
on offense. They are going to take a much more run-heavy approach this year,
likely with Tyrod Taylor (or Cam Newton?) contributing on the ground from the
quarterback position. Wirfs has the power to drive people downhill, and the
athleticism to get out in space as a lead blocker on misdirection plays.
7) Carolina Panthers – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
The
next coin toss for offensive linemen I’ll go with is Thomas. Carolina acquired
Russell Okung in a trade this offseason, but I hope they don’t see that as a
long term answer at the position. He could serve as a stopgap on one side while
they ease Thomas in, or they could put one on each side and bump Taylor Moton inside
to guard where he might be better suited in the long run.
8) Arizona Cardinals – Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
Arizona
seemed like an easy place to drop the first receiver off the board, then they
went and found DeAndre Hopkins at the Houston bargain sale. So now their
offense appears set on the outside. Questions remain on the offensive line, but
Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme reduces a lot of the pressure on the pass protection
by getting the ball out quick. So I think they will address their defensive
front instead with the massive Brown, who is already a dominant run stuffer and
may have a little something more to offer in pass rush.
9) Jacksonville Jaguars – CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
The
Jaguars are a wild card because pretty much every position is a position of
need. They need pass rushers to replace Calais Campbell and possibly Yannick
Ngakoue. They need a quarterback if they don’t believe in Gardner Minshew. They
need help on the offensive line and at wide receiver and on and on and on. I ended
up giving them Henderson, because I’ve heard that he’ll likely go in the top
ten, and the Jaguars certainly need some cornerback help after dealing away
both Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye in the past year.
10) Cleveland Browns – Mehki Becton, OT, Louisville
I
think it’s 50/50 whether the Browns stick in this spot. It sounds like they
want to trade back, and could potentially have a very willing trade partner in
someone like Denver or Atlanta. They reportedly like several of the offensive
linemen outside the big four, but if they stay put I think they’ll be happy to
take a swing on the massive upside of Becton.
11) New York Jets – Jedrick Wills, OG/OT, Alabama
The
Jets hold their breath through the first ten picks, and they are fortunate that one of the top four offensive linemen is still
available when they select. I could see them trying to be aggressive and leap
up a couple of spots to make sure they get the guy they prefer, but settling
for Wills wouldn’t be a disaster either. They need something, anything, on
their offensive line, and Wills can slide into multiple slots as they build the
rest of the unit around him.
12) Las Vegas Raiders – Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama
The
run on offensive linemen just concluded, so now it’s time to begin the run on
wide receivers. For most of the process it was viewed as a two man race between
Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb for the top receiver off the board, with Ruggs a
short distance behind at third. But the NFL has a habit of snagging lightning fast
receivers higher than most expect—John Ross, Will Fuller, and Marquise Brown
all in recent history—and if I had to put money on the first receiver to go off
the board, I’d put it on Ruggs.
13) San Francisco 49ers – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
I
went back and forth on this pick between the next two receivers before settling
on Jeudy. I think Jeudy’s lateral quickness will play well in Kyle Shanahan’s
scheme, and I think a lot of the run-after-the-catch edge that Lamb has is
already present in the offense with Deebo Samuel. This is also the first of a
run of picks where I could see a team sliding back to try to acquire more
capital later on, since the 49ers enter the draft without much to work with.
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
Terrell
is a name that seems to be slowly creeping up draft boards over the past few
weeks, and I think he could surprise people by being the third cornerback off
the board. He’s long and has decent athleticism to go with occasionally good ball skills.
Tampa Bay has rebuilt their offense this offseason, but they still have a lot
of work to do on their defense. Terrell could help patch one of the holes at
their back end.
15) Denver Broncos – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
Denver
likes what they saw out of Drew Lock a year ago, and now they need to give him
something to work with. An offensive lineman would probably be more worthwhile,
but with the top four off the board they’ll address their weapons on the
outside instead. Courtland Sutton has the makings of a very good wide receiver,
and with Lamb on the other side the Broncos will have a pair of young receivers
who complement each other perfectly and have the potential to develop into one
of the best duos in the league.
16) Atlanta Falcons – Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
The
Falcons are a team that has been surrounded by a lot of buzz over the past
couple weeks. They reportedly are looking to leap up into the top ten. A
possible target would be Henderson to fill the gap left by Desmond Trufant’s
departure, but they may also be trying to jump up to ensure they get their
hands on Kinlaw. In this case it doesn’t matter, as he falls right into their
lap to give them a pair of interior terrors with Kinlaw placed beside
Grady Jarrett.
17) Dallas Cowboys – Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
Dallas’s
mismanagement of the salary cap meant they were unable to keep Byron Jones this
offseason, and now their secondary is basically a wasteland. McKinney doesn’t
have great long term upside, but he can step in right away to play a variety of
roles at the back end of their defense. If they need him to hang out in the
deep middle, he can do that, though he’s probably at his most valuable matched
up man-to-man with receivers coming out of the slot.
18) Miami Dolphins – K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
Quarterback
is checked off, so now it’s time to go for the pass rush. Miami hasn’t gotten
much in three years from Charles Harris, so they’ll take a swing again in the
first round going with Chaisson. Chaisson is a quick, versatile athlete with
very few developed tools, but he could be the perfect player for Brian Flores
to mold into one of the versatile linebackers he had to play with during his
time in New England.
19) Las Vegas Raiders – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
I
don’t really know what to do with Tagovailoa. I think he’s going to slide some
on draft night, largely due to uncertainty about his injury history. I know
he’s had multiple doctors write letters stating that he’s okay, but teams will
be reluctant to wager their franchise on someone they haven’t had a chance to
bring in and examine themselves. Still, I suspect he won’t be here when the
Raiders come up the second time around. I think someone trades into the
mid-teens to take the gamble on Tagovailoa. I feel similarly about Jordan Love,
who won’t appear in this mock draft but will likely go somewhere in the 20s to
a team like the Colts or the Chargers rising from the second round to claim
him.
20) Jacksonville Jaguars – Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
Once
again Jacksonville can take anyone they feel like with this pick. There isn’t a
player out there who wouldn’t fill a need. While they probably could have gone
with an offensive lineman with their earlier slot, most of the top linemen are
off the board now. They might try to grab a receiver like Justin Jefferson, but
I’d bet on them doubling down on defense with Queen, an athletic linebacker
with high upside who will be the piece in the middle of their defense to go
along with Henderson at the back end and last year’s pick Josh Allen at the
front.
21) Philadelphia Eagles – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
Injuries
were the biggest killer of Philadelphia’s offensive hopes a year ago, but even
when healthy they have some significant holes on the outside. They’re a team I
could see jumping up for one of the top three receivers, but if they hold put
they should be in position to grab Jefferson, who seems to have emerged as the
popular choice for number four. He was productive in college, and he surprised
a lot of people by having one of the best performances of a receiver at the
Combine.
22) Minnesota Vikings – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
Minnesota
lost their top three cornerbacks from a year ago, so they need someone who can
contribute right away. Gladney is smaller than most of the other top
cornerbacks in the draft, but he’s fairly advanced in his technique and brings
a level of toughness and attitude that I think will mesh well with what Mike
Zimmer wants from his cornerbacks.
23) New England Patriots – Cesar Ruiz, OG/OC, Michigan
For
the past few years the Patriots have skated by with light investment in their
offensive line thanks to two things: legendary offensive line coach Dante
Scarnecchia and the quick release of Tom Brady. Both are now gone, and as Bill
Belichick is wont to do, he is going to try to turn a weakness into a strength.
This team is going to look a lot different over the next few years, and it is
going to start with a rebuilt offensive line.
24) New Orleans Saints – Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU
The
Saints feel as complete as any team out there, but they still need someone
other than Michael Thomas to throw to on the outside. Reagor would be my bet
for the next receiver off the board, and he would fit perfectly in Philadelphia.
He has the speed to stretch defenses over the top as well as the toughness to
come across the middle. He’s good once he gets the ball in his hands as well,
making life even easier for Drew Brees.
25) Minnesota Vikings – Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
Mims
isn’t as good as Stefon Diggs, at least not right now, but he can serve a very
similar role in Minnesota’s offense. Diggs was most valuable a year ago as a
down the field threat to open up the offense, and that’s where Mims will be
most able to contribute right away, with elite speed and size that will be
difficult to contain over the top. In the long run he has tremendous upside,
and if he develops he is the sort of player the Vikings can build their offense
around three or four years down the road.
26) Miami Dolphins – Josh Jones, OT, Houston
Quarterback,
pass rush, offensive tackle, arguably the three most important positions on the
field (cornerback would be the other in the conversation, and Miami has already
invested a lot there with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones). Jones is viewed a
clear step below the top four tackles in the draft, and I could potentially see
him sliding even farther than this if a team decides to bet on one of the less
polished athletic freaks who would likely be better suited in the second round.
27) Seattle Seahawks – Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State
Every
year Seattle does something completely out of left field, so what the hell I’ll
predict them doing something slightly crazy again. There are other linemen I
didn’t fully study who could find their way into the first round—Austin Jackson
and Isaiah Wilson are the main names that come to mind—but Cleveland has been
getting buzz for a while. He is a phenomenal athlete but also incredibly raw,
which isn’t something that has bothered Seattle in the past.
28) Baltimore Ravens – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
Baltimore
let CJ Mosley walk last year and really didn’t bother to replace him. They
reshaped their defense around their secondary, leaving the front seven weaker
than it has been in recent memory. Of course this offseason they responded by
loading up on the defensive line, suggesting this isn’t a total change in
philosophy. There’s still a big hole right in the middle of their defense, and
Murray could plug it up much as Mosley did before becoming a free agent.
29) Tennessee Titans – Zack Baun, EDGE, Wisconsin
Tennessee
could go a lot of different directions with this pick. I think Baun fits a lot
of what they need on defense. He has the ability to contribute as an edge rusher
opposite Harold Landry, but he also offers a lot more versatility at the
position. He’s able to slide back and play more of a traditional linebacker
role as well, giving them a flexible piece in a defense that lacks any real
sort of identity at this point.
30) Green Bay Packers – Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State
Last
year Green Bay prioritized their defense with their high picks, leaving major
holes in their offensive weapons. I don’t think they can justify doing that
again, and I expect their first pick to be help for Aaron Rodgers. At
this point I could see them going for any of Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, or Laviska
Shenault, and I could also see them moving up ten spots or so if they really
love someone like Jefferson, Reagor, or Mims. Green Bay has been aggressive
about going and getting their guy in the past, and their need at receiver is
desperate enough that I could see them doing so again.
31) San Francisco 49ers – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
San
Francisco struggled last year to find a reliable option opposite Richard
Sherman, and it’s unclear how much longer they can count on Sherman to hold
down his position on the left side. If Henderson is available higher up I can
see them jumping on him, but I think it’s more likely they have to settle for
someone from the next tier later in the round.
32) Kansas City Chiefs – Antoine Winfield Jr, S, Minnesota
I
don’t pass along every rumor I see, but I saw speculation the other day that
Kansas City may be interested in leaping high in the first round to acquire
Henry Ruggs, a prospect that is too terrifying to dismiss as impossible. But if
they stay put, I don’t think they’ll go for a wide receiver. Instead I think
they’ll grab the best player available, which in this scenario is Winfield. The
Chiefs got good contributions from Juan Thornhill a year ago, but when he went
out that left a major hole in the back end of their defense that Winfield could
help stabilize.
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