2020 Quarterback Prospects

Quarterback! The most important position, the hardest to find, and arguably the toughest to project from college to the NFL. There are a couple of great prospects this year, a couple of interesting options, and then, as always, plenty of backups to choose from, however much you think those are worth.

Joe Burrow, LSU

It’s been pretty much unanimous since November that Burrow was going to be the top quarterback in this draft class, and I’m not going to go against the rest of the scouting community on this one. Burrow is an extraordinary prospect in just about every phase of the game. He throws a gorgeous deep ball down the sideline that he can place with almost unbelievable precision. He is a good athlete and makes exciting plays either taking off with his legs or scrambling outside of the pocket. He constantly attacks down the field, never falling into the trap so many young quarterbacks do of being too risk averse. And yet he rarely puts the ball in a dangerous situation either, almost always hitting his target exactly as he wants to.

Burrow does all of the big things you want from a quarterback, and he does a lot of the little things too. His eyes never stick on his target, even if he knows that’s where he is going with the football. He’ll hold the defense in place by looking one way and then ripping it the other, and if his main choice is covered he’s always looking for the next option. When he sees coverage underneath, he’ll adjust the trajectory and velocity of his throws to fit the window that is available. He doesn’t panic under pressure, and he doesn’t throw the ball just for the sake of getting it out of his hand. He knows when the pocket is closing around him, and he knows when he’s clean to make a play.

If I have any concerns about Burrow, it’s that his style at LSU was a bit of a tightrope walk. He could always count on the players around him being better than the opposing team, and he was willing to take some risks knowing his teammates would have his back. Sometimes this meant holding the ball longer than the play called for. Sometimes this meant firing into a tight window trusting his receiver to make a contested catch. He made a lot of plays down the field because he took a lot of chances down the field, and it paid off because LSU was insanely talented on offense.

The same likely won’t be true in the NFL, at least not right away. And I’m curious how he will adjust. He needs to maintain some of his aggression and playmaking abilities, but to do so in a place like Cincinnati as he did at LSU would be borderline reckless at this point. There’s a window to be found, and he has to calibrate his game to hit it. But that’s true of any quarterback, so I’m not sure it’s even a real complaint. It may be a slightly rough entry into the NFL, but I think he will figure it out eventually, and become one of the best quarterbacks in the league in the long run.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

As I discussed with Tagovailoa’s teammate Terrell Lewis a couple days ago, injuries are always a factor that I don’t really know how to factor into my rankings. Fortunately in this case it’s fairly easy. Even fully healthy Tagovailoa is still below Burrow, and even if I think his injuries could be a factor going forward, his skills put him solidly above any other quarterback in the class.

Tagovailoa has a lot of the same strengths as Burrow. His best skill is his deep passing, throwing balls with perfect touch down the sideline to hit his receivers in stride. He’s excellent in the intermediate zone of the field as well, anticipating windows that come open and using his eyes to manipulate defenders dropping into zones. Like Burrow he is always waiting to make the big play, and if that means hanging out in a well built pocket even after his initial drop has concluded, he is in no hurry to check the ball down.

The biggest difference between the two I see is accuracy. This isn’t an issue for Tagovailoa—he’s more than accurate enough to be a top five selection—but he isn't at the same flawless level as Burrow. Within the framework of the play he’s normally on target, though he does have a tendency to try to turn every pass into a laser that can make life more difficult for his receivers. But his accuracy fades when he tries to throw on the run, or when his feet aren’t set perfectly beneath him. Neither of these quarterbacks is Patrick Mahomes, with the arm strength to complete passes that seem physically impossible. But Tagovailoa seems to have more issues with his footwork falling apart as he moves through his reads and the play progresses.

Tagovailoa is a good athlete, and if there’s a concern with his injuries it’s that he may lose some mobility and cut off his ability to make plays outside the pocket. This was certainly a big part of his game in college, but he was always at his best inside the pocket, and he will still be an effective quarterback if he has to transition to more of a statue standing in the middle of the field. It may lower his ceiling somewhat, but I don’t think we have to worry about injuries robbing him of his ability to play altogether.

Jordan Love, Utah State

Love is this year’s gamble at quarterback, which is okay. In the NFL if you want a high caliber starting quarterback you either need a top five draft pick, or you need to take a chance on someone with clear talent and even clearer flaws. And Love’s talent is undeniable. He’s got the best arm of the quarterbacks I looked at, able to launch bombs downfield with beautiful arc and to complete throws from awkward platforms. He makes excellent plays outside of structure and on the run, and when he cocks the ball back and lets it rip he fires with precision into tight windows.

The biggest criticism of Love is that he threw 17 interceptions his last year in college. In the three games I watched I saw a little bit of everything. Some of his throws could be dismissed as reckless aggression in situations that called for it, taking chances when his team was behind and needed big plays to try to catch up. But he also got baited into a pick by a cornerback who pretended to be sitting back and then charged an underneath throw, and he had multiple passes snagged by linebackers underneath. In these latter cases it was hard to say whether he just didn’t see these defenders, or if he saw them and couldn’t loop the throws over their head. He isn’t great at controlling trajectories on touch passes, and this limits him somewhat on the windows he can hit over the middle.

Love absolutely has upside to be a starting quarterback, and I think he’s worth a gamble in the middle of the first round. This may actually be one of the rare cases where I believe a quarterback would be better served sitting on the bench, especially if the offseason workouts are limited by the coronavirus situation. That’s likely a luxury he won’t have in any case, and when he does see the field it’s going to be rough. He isn’t athletic enough to add value on designed runs the way Josh Allen does, but he would be well served by a system that gets him outside the pocket on bootlegs, simplifying his reads and letting him make use of his talents throwing on the move. Love’s career will largely be defined by where he ends up, and how well he learns from the mistakes he’s going to make along the way.

Jake Fromm, Georgia

I’m normally against selecting a quarterback in the second round. If you think someone has the potential to be a long term starter, you shouldn’t take the risk and pass on him in the first round. If you don’t think he has the potential to be a starter, then it’s a waste to spend a pick that would otherwise be used on a real contributor. Which makes it weird to evaluate Fromm, because he is the second-roundest quarterback imaginable. He’s basically guaranteed to spend the next ten years as either the most replaceable starter in the league or the most valuable backup.

There isn’t much to be impressed with when it comes to Fromm’s physical abilities. He is not an athlete, and he doesn’t make plays outside the pocket. His arm strength is a clear notch below all of the other quarterbacks I looked at. He’s precise and accurate on throws underneath ten yards, and inaccurate on anything past that. His footwork breaks down quickly when he’s under pressure, and while he’s willing to take hits to deliver the ball, it rarely ends up on target.

But Fromm is smart, and he is safe. He doesn’t take risks with the football, and he almost always picks the right target. He’s very quick to go to his checkdowns, even when he isn’t threatened by pressure. He isn’t going to take negative plays. He also isn’t going to make many positive ones either. If he’s on a team surrounded by talent, he can be a poor man’s Andy Dalton, able to win a handful of games as a starter and maybe even make a brief playoff appearance. But I think he’s better served in more of a Chase Daniel role. Ride the bench, contribute in meetings, and maybe make brief appearances on the field to try to hold things down until the real quarterback returns.

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma

Another year, another Oklahoma quarterback. Though unlike the last two years, this one won’t be the top player selected. In fact I don’t see any reason to take him before the fourth round, and even that would probably be too pricey for me. I don’t see much reason to believe he can be a starting NFL quarterback, but his mobility at least gives him some value as a backup option, mostly because it will mess with defenses if they aren’t prepared for it.

Hurts is a good athlete, but he’s not an elite runner at the level of a Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, or Kyler Murray. He’s closer to Russell Wilson—good speed and instincts, some power in the open field, but not someone who can drive an offense simply with his legs. To move the ball effectively in the NFL, he is going to have to be able to pass at a level that is at the very least average. And despite a lot of starting experience in college at two of the top programs in the country, I don’t see that in his game at all.

Hurts has plenty of arm strength, and he has a good understanding for the offense he’s running, even as he was moved into a new system with limited practice time his last year at Oklahoma. Every now and then he’ll make a throw with gorgeous placement, but just as often he’ll chuck it up into single coverage just hoping his receiver can make a play. He’s also reckless with the football, both when it comes to forcing it into tight coverage and with how he holds it in his hands. He takes a lot of hits as a runner that jar the ball free, and he doesn’t have a great sense of the pocket, meaning he is frequently stripped from behind as he is winding up.

The only thing that really elevates Hurts over the next two players on this list is his mobility, and even that I have questions about. He’s a good runner when he gets into the open field, but there are also several times a game when he scrambles forward into a crowd at the line of scrimmage. And once his eyes drop, he’s taking off no mater what. He doesn’t make many plays outside the pocket, and more often than not he’s either going to take off for a short gain or flip the ball meaninglessly into the sideline. There’s no real upside here, besides a few moments of surprise if he ever comes off the bench.

Justin Herbert, Oregon

Herbert certainly looks like a quarterback. At 6-6 and 236 pounds, he stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with a laser arm that can reach any part of the field. He’s at his best when he takes a quick drop and fires a slant over the middle, with a quick release and a sharp zip that makes it almost impossible for a defender to play the ball. He shows good ball placement as well, either keeping it low to protect the receiver or hitting his target in stride to set up yards after the catch.

Herbert’s problems are with anything other than a slant route. Outside the numbers his accuracy falls off quickly—though he still has plenty of arm to get it to his target on a line, it’s likely to either skip off the ground or sail over the receiver’s head. He’s more precise with intermediate throws over the middle, but these suffer from a lack of anticipation. He always seems to hold the ball a beat too long waiting for the receiver to actually come open, and this often gives defenders a chance to close the window. He rarely alters the trajectory of his ball, delivering everything on a line. When he does try to throw with touch, he has very little control over where it ends up.

Someone is going to try to make Herbert into a starting quarterback, and it’s not completely out of the question that they’ll succeed. I’m not a great judge of quarterback mechanics, and maybe there’s something obvious that he can clean up to wash away his accuracy problems. But even if he does work out, he’s going to severely limit what sort of offense you can run. He is completely incapable of throwing on the run, and he does next to nothing outside of structure. I think Herbert’s most likely path is as a long term backup after his shot as a starter slips away.

Jacob Eason, Washington

You could be forgiven if you didn’t believe that Eason and Herbert were actually two different people. They both stand the same height, and while Eason measured 5 pounds lighter, he actually looks thicker on the field. They both have massive arms that can hit any spot on the field, but can’t always be relied on to hit the exact spot they want. They both have similar weaknesses when it comes to anticipating windows, delivering the ball with touch, or throwing on the run.

There’s probably a case to be made for Eason over Herbert based on sheer variance, but I don’t think it really matters. Both are likely to be little more than journeyman backups, even if I think Eason has a slightly better chance both of emerging into a starting quarterback and of washing out of the league entirely. He played in 14 fewer games during his time in college, and he’s definitely more raw as a prospect. Sometimes this means he’s much more aggressive firing into—and occasionally hitting—tight windows over the middle of the field. Sometimes this means forcing the ball into situations where it has no chance of being completed.

It doesn’t really matter which you prefer. In either case they are best as flyer picks in the fifth round, but more likely someone I would wait a couple years to pick up as low price free agents once they have more experience working as professional quarterbacks. If there’s a big distinction, it’s probably in how they handle pressure. While Herbert will at least stand in and try to fire on target bullets, Eason panics at the merest sight of anyone coming at him, either trying to break free or firing the ball blindly down the field. This also could be chalked up to inexperience, or it could be a sign that he will absolutely kill you if he ever finds a way onto the field for your team.