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Two
days remain until the NFL Draft kicks off, which means it’s officially mock
draft time!
As
always I will be doing two mock drafts. Tomorrow I’ll come with one trying to
predict what will actually happen with each pick. But today I’m putting
together a mock based on what would happen if I was responsible for every pick.
Which means no running backs, no immobile defensive tackles, and no Justin
Herbert.
If
you want to read more about any of these players, here are the links to more in
depth scouting reports.
1) Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
A
couple years ago when doing this exercise, I made a mistake. I prioritized the
positional value of a quarterback over an elite pass rush prospect, and selected
Mitch Trubisky over Myles Garrett. I may be making that mistake again. But
Burrow is not Trubisky. He is as good a quarterback prospect as I have ever
studied, with accuracy, poise, and aggression oozing out of him every moment he
is on the field. Cincinnati is probably not a good place for him, but the
Bengals can’t continue to trot out Andy Dalton.
2) Washington Redskins – Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Defensive
line is the one position where Washington is more or less set, but there’s no
way they can pass on Young if he’s available. Young possesses a rare
combination of athleticism and technique that makes him as sure a bet as you
are going to get in the draft. And as San Francisco proved last year, you can
never invest too much in your defensive line. Washington still has a lot of
holes elsewhere on their roster, but an elite pass rush can cover many of those
up.
3) Detroit Lions – Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Okudah
isn’t on the same tier as Burrow and Young as a prospect, but he’s probably on
a tier above everyone else in this draft. He’s a likely choice for this
selection in real life if the Lions don’t trade out (and I don’t project trades
in my mock drafts), and he’ll be an excellent addition for a defense in need of
help on the back end after trading away Darius Slay.
4) New York Giants – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
I
was tempted to look at Daniel Jones as a sunk cost and take a run at a much
better quarterback prospect. Jones was better than I expected last year, but
that merely means he was “very bad” rather than “irredeemably terrible”. But I
think he should get one more year, and there’s a decent chance the Giants will
be in position to grab a top quarterback again in 2021. And when they do, it
will help to have an offensive line locked down in front of him.
5) Miami Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
The
Dolphins entered last season with the plan to tank so they could grab
Tagovailoa with the first pick, and they failed, as tanking teams often do. But
because of the rise of Burrow and the lack of quarterback need in the teams
that leapt them in the draft, they get their man anyway. Between the uncertain
offseason and Tagovailoa’s hip injury, this is a case where letting Ryan
Fitzpatrick hold things down for at least the first month of the season makes
sense. And the Dolphins still have basically no talent on their roster, so
there’s no hurry to rush him out onto the field.
6) Los Angeles Chargers – Mehki Becton, OT, Louisville
The
Chargers miss out on the top quarterbacks, and they will be forced to rely on
Tyrod Taylor this year (or sign Cam Newton, which I don’t understand why this
hasn’t happened yet). But there are worse situations to be in at quarterback,
and they still need help on their offensive line. Becton is a rare physical
specimen—6-7 and 364 pounds with excellent athleticism—and with the right
development he can become a dominant force at left tackle for the Chargers for
the next decade.
7) Carolina Panthers – Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
Kinlaw
slides some because the Giants and the Chargers have bigger needs than
defensive line, and because Miami has to go for a quarterback. The Panthers are
the big beneficiaries. Kinlaw is an overwhelming force in the middle of the
defense, combining power and explosiveness to absolutely destroy three or four
plays a game deep in the backfield. He has some work to do, but the sky is the
limit for him, and he’ll be a key piece in a defense trying to rebuild itself
from the ground up.
8) Arizona Cardinals – Jedrick Wills, OG/OT, Alabama
Arizona
fixed their wide receiver situation thanks to a charitable donation from the
Texans, so now they’re free to use their draft pick to attack the offensive
line. I’m not sure the best position for Wills going forward—he offers more
value at tackle, but he would be much better at guard—but it doesn’t matter,
the Cardinals need everything on their line. Kyler Murray’s athleticism and
Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme mitigate some of the issues up front for them, but to
have any success they at least need their protection to reach “below average”,
while it’s currently at “crime against football” levels.
9) Jacksonville Jaguars – Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
This
is a bit of a reach for a major risk at quarterback. I was tempted to go
another direction, and I even started eying the next handful of draft slots to
see if Love might fall to Jacksonville’s second pick at 20. But then I
remembered my philosophy: if you think a quarterback is worth a first round
pick, take him. There is no other potential starter available in this draft,
and it’s unclear what other path there would be in the next year or two for
Jacksonville to get someone with Love’s talent. It isn’t worth the risk of
missing out on him just because you think he’s more of a mid-first round pick
than a top ten selection.
10) Cleveland Browns – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
This
is a little rich for Murray, but I don’t see any better options. The Browns
could take a run at a wide receiver, adding a threat across from Odell Beckham
and bumping Jarvis Landry into the slot. Their greatest need is an offensive
lineman, but the top three options are already off the board. They do need to
address their defense, and Murray is the best defensive option available. An
excellent athlete with the force to stuff up the running game, he can develop
into a keystone piece in the middle of this defense.
11) New York Jets – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
The
Jets let Robby Anderson walk away for some reason in the offseason, and now
they are somehow even more barren of talent at wide receiver. They added
Breshad Perriman who had a very minor breakout last year in Tampa Bay, but
otherwise they will be counting on either Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, or the
health of Quincy Enunwa. Lucky for them the best receiver in the draft slides
right into their lap, and they snatch him off the board without even needing to
think twice.
12) Las Vegas Raiders – Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor
Mims
will be an interesting fit in Las Vegas. Early in his career his best use will
be as a deep threat, taking advantage of his 6-4 frame and 4.38 speed to
challenge defenses over the top. This isn’t a great fit for Derek Carr’s
talents or Jon Gruden’s offense, but Mims has the ability to grow into the
role. He flashed dangerous route running ability at the Senior Bowl that
suggests he may have been held back some at Baylor, and if everything breaks
right he has the highest ceiling of any receiver in the draft.
13) San Francisco 49ers – Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama
Placing
Ruggs in Kyle Shanahan’s offense would just be unfair. I can already picture
him streaking across the field on a deep post while Jimmy Garoppolo—or whoever
the hell their long term quarterback is—runs a bootleg behind the line of
scrimmage, the combination of vertical and lateral motion breaking down any
zone a team tries to run. Shanahan is the best play designer in the NFL, and
Ruggs is a tool that he will be giddy to play with.
14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson
I
have no idea what Simmons will become in the NFL, but Tampa Bay is certainly an
intriguing possible destination. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has
experience using unique hybrid players like Tyrann Mathieu and Jamal Adams in a
wide variety of roles, and he could be the perfect person to unlock Simmons’s
rare athleticism at the next level. He’s not dominant enough to justify a top
ten selection, but he can reach that level in the right circumstances, and
Tampa Bay is one of the few destinations that could fit the bill.
15) Denver Broncos – Josh Jones, OT, Houston
Denver
needs offensive line help, as they’ve needed offensive line help for half a
decade now. Garrett Bolles has been a disaster, and Jones will give them an
excuse to send him to the bench. Jones isn’t as polished as Thomas or as
athletic as Wills or Becton, but he sits somewhere comfortably in the middle.
He’ll be a good left tackle in the passing game, with the potential to be elite
as a run blocker if placed in the right scheme.
16) Atlanta Falcons – AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
Desmond
Trufant was let go this offseason, and now the Falcons need to restock at
cornerback. Frankly they’ve needed to add a cornerback for years now, and the
need is even more pressing with their top option gone. Terrell is long and
physical, with some questionable ball skills but otherwise well rounded as a
prospect. He can help right away to shore up the back end of a defense that could
really, really use it.
17) Dallas Cowboys – Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
We’ve
seen how crucial receiver help is to the effectiveness of Dak Prescott. A year
ago he was one of the best passers in the league leaning on Amari Cooper to
carry just about everything in the passing game, and this year they have to get
him another option. Higgins is a good complement to Cooper—big and strong with
the ability to work over the middle of the field while Cooper carves up the
outside. He’s the sort of big target that Prescott can look to when things
start going wrong, a replacement for Jason Witten as much as anything else.
18) Miami Dolphins – Tristan Wirfs, OT/OG, Iowa
The
Dolphins have their quarterback, now they just have to worry about the other 21
starting spots. They got a very good return for trading away Laremy Tunsil a
year ago, but that’s still a high caliber offensive lineman they just sent
packing. Wirfs will never replace that, but he has the athleticism and
flexibility to be a long term piece to build around up front.
19) Las Vegas Raiders – Damon Arnette, CB, Ohio State
The
Raiders didn’t have great luck spending a first round pick on Gareon Conley
three years ago, and they still have major holes at the back end of their
defense. The best option is to go for another Ohio State cornerback, the
aggressive ball hawk Arnette. He’s not the greatest athlete or the cleanest
technician, but he attacks the ball as well as any cornerback in this class,
always finding ways to make life difficult for the opposing receivers and often
snatching the ball out of the air himself.
20) Jacksonville Jaguars – Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State
In
two years since their surprise appearance in the AFC Championship game, the
Jaguars have lost 9 of the 11 starters from that defense. That number will jump
to 10 if Yannick Ngakoue can force his way out of Jacksonville, and even if he
sticks around for this year it’s pretty clear he isn’t there for the long term.
Gross-Matos won’t bring the same pass rush presence as Ngakoue, at least not
right away, but he’s a stellar player against the run. And opposite last year’s
first round selection Josh Allen he should be freed up to develop his skills
chasing down quarterbacks, potentially giving the Jaguars two excellent young
pass rushers to build around going forward.
21) Philadelphia Eagles – Antoine Winfield Jr, S, Minnesota
Philadelphia’s
offense was a catastrophe last year, but that was mostly due to injuries. It’s
tempting to go for a wide receiver, but they still need help in their
secondary, as they have for years. Winfield will slide pretty quickly into the role of
the departed Malcolm Jenkins as the ball hawking commander at the back end of
their defense. He brings decent physicality for his size as well (with a name
like his he kind of has to), and with a couple more years of growth he could develop
into one of the top all around safeties in the league.
22) Minnesota Vikings – Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State
It
might not be the best strategy strictly from a PR perspective to use the pick
they acquired in the Stefon Diggs trade on a receiver, but with four options
already off the board the Vikings can’t afford to wait to bolster their
receiving corps. Aiyuk is not as good as Diggs—he’s similar athletically and as
a route runner but doesn’t have the same physicality at the point of the
catch—but he’s the best option available at this point. He should be a focal
point of their offense as they attempt to rebuild over the coming years, as
older players like Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph move on.
23) New England Patriots – Zack Baun, EDGE, Wisconsin
Baun
is just about perfect for what the Patriots want to do on defense. New England
doesn’t prize pure edge rushers, preferring to manufacture pass rush through
versatile linebackers that convert to rushers in passing situations. That’s
pretty much a perfect description for Baun’s game, with the ability to back off
the ball and hold stout against the run while also moving up to come off the
edge on third downs.
24) New Orleans Saints – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
The
Saints are tough to pick for, because their roster feels loaded at just about
every position. But one thing they have desperately needed for a while is a
second receiver opposite Michael Thomas. Well, the local product Jefferson is
pretty much the perfect fit for that role. He doesn’t have the upside of some
of the receivers taken above him, but he is a polished receiver who can
contribute right away for a team that expects to compete for a championship
right now.
25) Minnesota Vikings – CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
I
know there are jokes about Mike Zimmer loving to spend high picks on
cornerbacks, but Minnesota did just lose their top three cornerbacks from a
year ago. They desperately need someone at that position, and Henderson is
someone. I don’t love his tape as much as most people seem to, and I was
tempted to go with someone who might give a more immediate impact like Bryce
Hall. But Henderson is such a special athlete that I couldn’t pass him up at
this point. If he can ever figure out how to locate and play the ball in the air, he has the talent to become
one of the few true shutdown cornerbacks in the NFL.
26) Miami Dolphins – Josh Uche, EDGE, Michigan
Another
first round pick, another opportunity to just grab the best player available
for a roster that needs pretty much everything. Brian Flores came straight from
New England’s defense, so it’s unsurprising he would want a player similar to
Baun. Well Uche certainly brings a similar style, with less polish, more
athleticism, and higher upside.
27) Seattle Seahawks – Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma
Seattle
could really use an edge rusher after watching both Frank Clark and Jadeveon
Clowney walk out the door over the past two seasons, but with the options
available they’ll be better suited trying to generate more of their rush from
the inside. Gallimore is a strange prospect, and it’s going to take some time
to figure out how to fit him into an NFL defense. But Pete Carroll has never
shied away from a project in the past, and if unlocked Gallimore can be a real
pass rushing threat on the interior.
28) Baltimore Ravens – Cesar Ruiz, OG/OC, Michigan
Ruiz
can’t replace Marshal Yanda, because no one can. But he can at least slide into
Yanda’s place on the offensive line to bolster what is an essential strength of
Baltimore’s offense. No matter how much Lamar Jackson develops as a passer, the
running attack is always going to be a crucial part of any offense he’s in
charge of. Ruiz will help carry that philosophy forward as they look towards an
era without their Hall of Fame leader.
29) Tennessee Titans – Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia
Tennessee
got shredded through the air by Kansas City in the NFC Championship game, and
they need to do something to address their shaky cornerback play. Malcolm
Butler has never lived up to his single-season-plus-one-play flare-up in New
England, and Adoree Jackson is still little more than an excellent athlete.
Hall doesn’t have the physical gifts of some of the cornerbacks who went above
him, but he’s a sound technician with excellent ball skills who should be able
to contribute immediately to Tennessee’s defense.
30) Green Bay Packers – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
I’m
lower on Jeudy than most people, and placing him here may be mostly me trying
to tease my Packer fan friends with this possibility knowing it will never
happen. Jeudy is certainly an intriguing prospect, with unique quickness that
he hasn’t quite seemed to harness yet. He could be perfect in a situation with
a quarterback who brings pinpoint accuracy and timing, but I worry about him if
his quarterback needs him to make difficult plays. I’m not sure which category
Aaron Rodgers currently falls into, but he certainly needs someone other than
Davante Adams to throw the ball to.
31) San Francisco 49ers – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
Fulton has high upside at cornerback, if he ends up in the right scheme. Well, San Francisco's scheme is as close as it gets to right. Either jumping on the field quickly opposite Richard Sherman or waiting to develop as Sherman's eventual replacement on the bench, he's well suited for the physical Cover-3 scheme that defensive coordinator Robert Saleh brought over with him from Seattle.
32) Kansas City Chiefs – K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
Kansas City has invested a lot of money in Frank Clark and Chris Jones, but you can always use more pass rushers. Chaisson has as high a ceiling as anyone save Young, if he can add some strength and develop more consistent burst up the field. If not, he'll still be a valuable addition for a Kansas City defense that can use his quickness in space to play off of their more consistent edge rushers.
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