2020 Wide Receiver Prospects

So a lot has been happening in the world these past few weeks, but one thing remains very true: draft season is upon us. What format the draft will take and how much the festivities will be dampened by, you know, everything, remains to be determined, but it does appear that the draft is still going to occur on schedule. Which means it’s time for me to start my annual prospect rankings.

For a couple years now we’ve been looking ahead at this receiver class as a particularly loaded one, and I expect by the time draft night rolls around we could see as many as seven wide receivers selected on the first night. I’m not as enamored with the top end talent in this class as other people seem to be, but the depth is impossible to deny. There will be some very good receivers available at the tail end of the first round, and possibly even sliding into the second.

Here are nine of the top prospects from this year’s class, listed in descending order of my ranking of them.

CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma

There is no one thing that Lamb does better than any other member of this class. There are faster receivers. There are receivers better at contested catches. There are better route runners. The one skill that most sets Lamb apart is his ability after the catch, but there are even better options there too. What makes Lamb the best receiver in this class is that he is above average in every single one of these areas, easily the most well rounded option available.

There are no clear weak points of Lamb’s game, but that isn’t to say that there is nothing for him to improve on either. Mostly what he needs is consistency, something I expect him to find at the next level. Consistency as a route runner, coming from a system that was based more on scheming receivers open than asking them to beat the coverage across from them. Consistency going outside his frame to make catches, from a player who could make spectacular leaping grabs but also struggle with throws slightly off target. I don’t expect him to come in and dominate in the NFL right away, but he’ll be a useful starter from day one, even if he does disappear every now and then.

Lamb is a rare prospect that is both high-floor and high-ceiling. Even if he doesn’t develop, his physical skills are enough to make him a danger that defenses constantly have to focus on. Get the ball in his hands, and he’s always a threat to take it the distance. Split him to the outside, and he can beat you either stretching the field or breaking it off with a sharp cut underneath. And if he can polish these skills, he has the potential to be among the best in the league at his position.

Denzel Mims, Baylor

Mims is going to struggle to adjust to the NFL. His biggest weaknesses right now are off the line, and quality NFL cornerbacks will eat that alive. He’s tall at 6-4, and he plays high, meaning press coverage gets into his chest and stacks him up at the line. He's a mixed bag as a route runner, and he is going to have to rely on his physical gifts alone to separate until he develops a little more.

Fortunately, he happens to be the most physically gifted receiver in the draft. He’s tall as I mentioned before, and he is fast as well, blazing a 4.38 in the forty yard dash. Toss in a vertical jump, broad jump, and 3-cone drill that were all in the 84^th percentile or higher, and he was one of the clear winners at the Combine. If nothing else, he will be an elite deep threat right away. His speed can take the top off defenses, he tracks the ball well in the air, and he has the height and body control to make leaping catches even if the defender can keep up with him.

And if Mims can round out his game, he has all the tools to be the best receiver in football. He’s dangerous after the catch, quick enough to make people miss and strong enough to power through tackles. If he can apply that quickness and that strength to beating press coverage, there won’t be much that cornerbacks can do to keep up with him. The upside is the best of any receiver in the class, and even with the risk it would be hard to let him fall past the middle of the first round.

Henry Ruggs, Alabama

Ruggs is this year’s one-trick pony, but that trick he has is the most valuable one there is. He will be invisible for large stretches of games, but when he shows up it is as an explosion of unmatched speed. This is someone who ran a 4.27 in the forty yard dash at the Combine, and most people considered that a mild disappointment. He is by a comfortable margin the fastest player in this year’s class, and that speed is his primary tool in getting open.

Ruggs isn’t just a straight-line deep threat. His speed translates coming across the middle of the field as well in ways that break angles against both zone and man coverage. Whether it’s on a jet sweep sprinting around the contain defender, a drag route that leaves coverage helpless in his wake, or a deep post that warps the typical coverage rules of safeties, his speed is something defenses have to adjust for on every single play. Because if they let up for even a moment, he’s a threat to take any play sixty yards. He’s good at tracking deep balls in the air, and he’s decent after the catch, able to absorb light contact and accelerate past it into open space.

Every year there is at least one receiver whose game is built around its speed, and every year I find myself asking the same questions: what else can he do, and how much does it matter? Ruggs is a bit more well rounded than past players like John Ross and Marquise Brown, but there are still clear holes in his game. He doesn’t do much as a route runner, besides taking advantage of cornerbacks who are overly cautious because of the danger he poses down the field. He struggles on contested catches, and he can be overwhelmed by press coverage. But his game breaking ability is enough that, even in this deep receiver class, he is still worth a first round pick. If nothing else he’ll be good for a couple game-changing plays each year, and in the right situation he’s the sort of player who warps coverage in a way that a clever play designer can scheme to take advantage of.

Tee Higgins, Clemson

Higgins is another big receiver with a wide catch radius like Mims, just lacking Mims’s other physical gifts. Higgins is at his best when the ball is up in the air, when he can use his long arms and his wide frame to shield defenders and go get a contested catch. It’s a good thing too, because he often finds himself surrounded by defenders, as he doesn’t have the speed or the quickness to consistently separate down the field.

That isn’t to say he doesn’t have a place in an NFL offense, just that he probably will top out as a good number two option in a passing game. He doesn’t have the quick-twitch ability to become an elite route runner, but he has a good understanding of how to sell fakes with his head and his shoulders. He absorbs contact well coming off of press coverage, and most defenders will have to settle for simply running alongside him. And while we unfortunately didn’t get a forty time from him, his speed down the field looked sufficient enough that teams don’t have to ignore him as a deep threat.

Higgins would be a good selection late in the first round for a relatively complete team looking to round out their offensive arsenal. He has experience playing in a complex scheme at a high level, and his transition to the NFL should be relatively smooth. He can play either outside or in the slot, and he ran a broad route tree in college. He will come in having experience with advanced releases off the line, and he already knows how to take advantage of subtle little push-offs to get the separation he otherwise wouldn’t be able to gain. As an immediate contributor he is one of the better options in this year’s class, though in a couple years the team that selected him may regret having passed up better long term options.

Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State

Of the receivers on this list, Aiyuk is probably the best route runner at this moment. His natural quickness makes it difficult for cornerbacks to keep up with him, but his ability to gain separation is more than just sharp cuts. He’s subtle with the way he changes the angles of his releases down the field to move defenders where he want them, giving him space to work with when he finally does decide to break off his route. And when they do start sitting and trying to anticipate his path, he is a master of the double move, with explosive ability to break away over the top.

At the Combine Aiyuk measured in at six feet tall and 205 pounds, both decent numbers for a wide receiver. But he plays a lot smaller than that on the field. He gets manhandled in press coverage, and he’s mostly helpless if there is a defender near him at the point of the catch. He will go up high to get a ball above his head, showing off an impressive 40 inch vertical leap. But he doesn’t fight through contact on his routes or at the catch at all.

It’s always possible to add strength in the NFL, but for the most part I think this is who Aiyuk is. He is going to be pushed around when there are people around him, so he’s going to have to continue to stay as far from other people as possible (in this time of social distancing, he’s already an expert). His quickness does allow him to sidestep attempts at press coverage, and his route running ability means there usually isn’t anyone around him down the field.

I think this limits Aiyuk’s upside, but there’s enough here to make him a first round pick. He’ll have a role to play early on in the NFL, if only as a dangerous kickoff returner and a threat on quick screens. If he can improve his play strength, then he very easily could become a Pro Bowl caliber wide receiver. But even if he doesn’t I still think he’ll end up as a perfectly average number one receiving option.

Justin Jefferson, LSU

Jefferson is a well rounded receiver who should transition to the NFL fairly easily, and in a year with lesser receiving talent it wouldn’t be a shock to see him go in the first round. It might not be a stretch this year either, though I think he’s probably a better fit on the second day of the draft. Where someone like Lamb is intriguing because he’s above average at everything, Jefferson is mostly just average at everything. A useful player to have, but maybe not worth taking when there are more exciting prospects on the board.

There are a few parts of his game where Jefferson does seem to excel. He pulls off a few truly beautiful routes each game, disguising his intention until the last possible second before breaking things off. Every release off the line looks the same, and even advanced cornerbacks won’t be able to jump his routes. He’s excellent at the catch point as well, fighting off contact and attacking the ball as it arrives to him.

The one interesting thing about Jefferson is his performance at the Combine. After looking like a serviceable but hardly extraordinary athlete, he exploded at the Combine, finishing in the top quartile in the forty yard dash and in both jumps. This looks nothing like the player I saw on the field, where he struggles to separate vertically and doesn’t offer much as a threat with the ball in his hands. Maybe this athleticism just hasn’t been realized yet, and he could still become an elite option. Even if he doesn’t, he’s a safe enough choice to make once the higher ceiling options are off the board.

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama

There are moments when I can see the player that most other people seem to think Jeudy is, the player he absolutely has the potential to become. He doesn’t have the same straight-line speed as his teammate Ruggs, but his first step burst is second to none, and a couple times each game he flashes a sideways hop that makes it seem like he simply teleported through space. It’s easy to imagine him applying this unique flare as either a route runner or with the ball in his hands, which makes it so strange that it rarely shows up in either part of the game.

Simply put, it just doesn’t seem like Jeudy has really figured out yet what he’s doing on a football field. For every time he jukes a defender into oblivion, there is also another play where he gets wrapped up on an easy tackle in space. At times he can release from press coverage with a sideways leap and then an explosion down the field, and at others he’ll just stand there and get manhandled by a defensive back.

Jeudy is not a complete player, and that’s okay. Very few players enter the draft well rounded, and I am more open than most to trying to project what a player can become rather than looking at just what he is now. If Jeudy can end up in a good situation with a wide receiver coach who can teach him the nuances of the game, he can become an elite route runner and a dangerous threat with the ball in his hands.

But even in the best case scenario, I think Jeudy’s ceiling is limited. He is just an okay athlete, and I rarely saw him do the things that truly elite receivers do consistently—win contested catches, expand his catch radius, separate at the point of the catch. And while I think he can expand the other missing pieces of his game, I don’t see anything in his athletic profile that suggests he’ll take the next level here. So I see him mainly as a developmental prospect with the best case scenario of becoming something like the 15^th best receiver in the league, and I just can’t justify taking a player like that until the second round.

Jalen Reagor, TCU

Reagor was one of the more interesting results to come out of the Combine. With decent size, a solid forty, an excellent performance in both the jumps, and a miserable outcome from both agility drills, his profile looks like what you’d expect to find from a field stretching vertical wide receiver. A smaller version of DK Metcalf from a year ago. Yet, strangely, that isn’t the sort of receiver I see when I watch Reagor on tape.

Reagor does have moments where his athletic profile shows up on the field. He can outrun cornerbacks down the sideline, and he makes some spectacular leaping catches, attacking the ball at its highest point. But most of the time when he gets open, it is due to his route running skills. He makes explosive breaks that he disguises right up until it’s time for him to turn, and he can make defenders look foolish on double moves. He’s effective once he gets the ball in his hands as well, able to make people miss in open space and accelerate to break a big play from a short completion.

So what does this dichotomy mean? Well, it can be one of two things. Either Reagor’s ability to separate won’t translate to the next level where everyone is quicker than him. Or his technique is already enough to make up for his lack of underneath quickness, and his vertical athletic ability just means he has even more room to expand his game. Reagor is a risky prospect, one who could emerge as an elite weapon in a couple of years, or be run out of the league entirely. It’s a gamble, but one I might be willing to make once the first round has run its course.

Laviska Shenault, Colorado

Shenault is a weird wide receiver prospect to break down, because I’m not entirely sure if wide receiver is actually his best position. Once he gets the ball in his hands, he looks like a running back. He makes tacklers miss in open space. He accelerates through lanes with breakaway speed. And he has the strength to drag forward for an extra four or five yards with bodies hanging off of him.

As a wide receiver though, Shenault does basically none of the things I look for in a prospect. He doesn’t get clean releases off the line. He doesn’t run a versatile route tree. He doesn’t win contested catches, and he doesn’t go after jump balls in the air (he drew a weirdly high number of pass interference penalties in the games I watched, not due to anything he was doing that I could see though).

Shenault is going to enter the league as a major work in progress. And maybe he can develop the missing parts of his game and become a truly unique receiving threat. But I think the most likely outcome for him is to become a basically 90% version of Cordarrelle Patterson. And I mean that as a compliment, comparing him to arguably the best kickoff returner in NFL history. I’m just not sure how valuable that player is. A second round pick? Maybe, though more likely a good value somewhere in the third.