We
entered last night’s draft expecting chaos, and we got…not really any of that.
The whole process went smoothly, and for most of the night things went by the
book. There were no huge trades (only one mostly trivial trade in the first 22
picks), and it seemed like we were in for a boring night.
And
then we were hit by a couple of surprises at the very end, because the NFL Draft
can never be totally normal.
Below
I give brief thoughts on each of the 32 picks. You can find more detailed
writeups of each player by clicking the links below, with the exception of four
who I will study and write up tomorrow.
1) Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
No
surprise here. Burrow is coming off of the best season in college football
history, and he is the best quarterback I’ve scouted in six years doing this.
He’s as close to a sure thing as has come around in a while, and the only
concerns I have are that he is a bit of a one year wonder, and that he will
have a rough transition entering an offense without two superstar wide
receivers, an elite tight end, an excellent offensive line, and a masterful
play caller. But he’ll figure it out eventually, and the Bengals will have
their franchise quarterback.
2) Washington Redskins – Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
There
was occasional speculation, but not really any doubts. Chase Young is a rare
prospect who will instantly elevate Washington’s pass rush as an addition to an
already talented defensive front. This wasn’t the biggest need for the
Redskins, but need doesn’t really matter with a player like Young. He’ll likely
produce double digit sacks his rookie year, and within a couple seasons he’ll
be challenging for the league lead.
3) Detroit Lions – Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
There
were a lot of other possibilities thrown out there, but in the end the Lions
made the correct choice. Okudah is a special cornerback, with good athleticism
and truly special coverage skills. He runs stride for stride with any receiver
running any route, and he will be in perfect position to make a play on the
football. Within a year or two he will be a shutdown cornerback to replace the
traded away Darius Slay.
4) New York Giants – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
To
my shock, the Giants do the right thing and grab the top offensive lineman
available. There are better athletes available with higher ceilings, but Thomas
is a good athlete himself, and he has the ability to become a top five tackle
in the league. The most important thing about Thomas is that he is as close as
an offensive lineman can come to a sure thing. He can start from day one, and
he will stay starting for the next decade.
5) Miami Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
So
many smokescreens were thrown around what the Dolphins wanted to do, but in the
end the Dolphins did the right thing to round out a top five that is identical
to how the draft would have gone if I was making every pick. Sure there are
injury concerns here, but even as slight injury risk at quarterback is worth it
if he can play at a truly elite level. And Tagovailoa can play at an elite
level, and if he was fully healthy there would have been at least a conversation
between him and Burrow for the top quarterback.
6) Los Angeles Chargers – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Finally,
a bad pick for me to rip into! Herbert is big, he has a strong arm, and he’s
generally a good decision maker. The problems come when he throws the ball. He
has no accuracy outside the hashes, he doesn’t throw anything other than
lasers, and he is completely helpless when the play breaks down. He’s a statue
in the pocket who can’t create on his own, and the absolute best case scenario
for him is that he becomes Kirk Cousins, capable of producing when everything
around him is going smoothly but a disaster when things start to go wrong.
7) Carolina Panthers – Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
Brown
is big and strong and will excel at stuffing up the middle of the field. But of
course when you’re spending a top ten pick on a defensive tackle, that really
doesn’t matter. What matters is whether he can rush the passer, and the answer
here is sometimes. Every now and then he’ll have a play where he just walks the
opposing lineman back into the pocket. But it feels very one dimensional, and
as games wear on offensive linemen seem to adjust to his power and erase any
hope he has of pressuring the quarterback. I worry that NFL linemen will be
smart and skilled enough to make that adjustment from the first snap, and he
could end up being nothing more than a two down run stopper.
8) Arizona Cardinals – Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson
Simmons
is a freakish athlete, and when you see him break downhill on a ball carrier in
space it is absolutely breathtaking. He played pretty much everywhere in
college, and there’s a chance the Cardinals may try to do something similar
with him at the next level. The concern I have is that he never seemed
particularly instinctive or aggressive, and this made him something of a
jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none. I feel like he’ll have plays that pop off
the screen, but I’m not sure he’ll ever be a consistent, game changing defender
like Derwin James or Tyrann Mathieu.
9) Jacksonville Jaguars – CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
Henderson
is a special athlete with very good coverage skills. There are two issues with
him. First, he has no interest in tackling. That’s not great, but it’s
something you can live with in a cornerback. The bigger concern is that even
when he’s in good position, he doesn’t make great plays on the ball. Wide
receivers can go over him or through him, and I’m not sure this is ever going
to improve. It will likely prevent him from ever reaching the elite tier of
cornerbacks, but against weaker receivers or quarterbacks unwilling to take
risks he can erase part of the field.
10) Cleveland Browns – Jedrick Wills, OG/OT, Alabama
To
some surprise the Browns still had their choice of three of the top four linemen,
and they went with the versatile Wills. Wills is an extremely good run blocker
and decent in pass protection as well. I have some worries about his ability to
attack pass rushers, and how he handles things when they break down in front of
him. He can definitely correct these things to become an elite tackle, but I
think the more likely course is that he maxes out as a reliable starter.
However, even if he doesn’t live up to expectations on the outside he can be an
absolutely dominant guard, all depending on which is more valuable to the team.
11) New York Jets – Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
Becton
is huge and he is a lot of fun. He throws defenders around like they’re random
people he found on the street rather than other elite football players. He’s so
big you can’t really run around him, and you certainly can’t go through him.
There are things to clean up about his technique no doubt, mostly to close
off inside moves. But get behind him in the running game and he will clear a
path down the field. And if he puts it all together, there is no limit to what
he can do.
12) Las Vegas Raiders – Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama
As
I expected, the speedy wide receiver leaps over the two more commonly top ranked
receivers. The NFL always falls in love with speed, and Ruggs has rare, rare
speed. He’s so fast on the field that it was a disappointment when he only ran
a 4.27 at the Combine. Send him down the field, and he wins over the top. Hit
him on an underneath route, and he can outrun the entire defense to the
endzone. I don’t think he has the strength and ball skills of someone like
Tyreek Hill, but he can bring a similar dynamic to that offense. If only he was
paired with Patrick Mahomes, rather than Derek Carr.
13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
The
Buccaneers hung in there, and they only ended up having to jump up one spot to
get one of the top tackles. Unfortunately Wirfs is probably the worst fits of
all the tackles to plug into an offense built around a 43 year old quarterback.
He’s better as a run blocker than a pass blocker, and he’s going to have some
hiccups as he translates to the NFL. In the long term he has the athleticism to
be an elite tackle, but the Buccaneers aren’t necessarily playing the long term
right now.
14) San Francisco 49ers – Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
I
have conflicted feelings about this pick. On the one hand, the 49ers have this selection
because they traded a proven superstar on the defensive interior, and then
grabbed a player on the part of their team that is most locked up. On the other
hand, Kinlaw is a top five player with the potential to be a real replacement for DeForest Buckner. They got a great player at a great value, and I guess you can
never react too harshly to that.
15) Denver Broncos – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
Jeudy
has very unique talent in terms of the way he changes direction. He makes cuts
in space that don’t seem to make sense. And every now and then he makes those
cuts while running a route or while carrying the football, and when he does you
can’t help but salivate at what he could be. But a lot of times it feels like
he dances just to dance and doesn't really have any plan with what he's doing. If he can put it all together he can be an excellent
receiver, though I do have concerns about his ability to make difficult
catches.
16) Atlanta Falcons – AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
I’ve
been a big fan of Terrell for a while, and his name has steadily crept up draft
boards over the past few weeks, to the point that it’s no surprise to see him
as the third cornerback off the board. He’s an above average athlete with good length,
and while he struggles some on jump balls, he’s otherwise good at playing the
ball in the air. Atlanta has desperately needed help at cornerback for years,
and the need is even more desperate now that Desmond Trufant has moved on.
17) Dallas Cowboys – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
Two
other receivers went earlier, but the best fell into Dallas’s lap. Lamb can do
pretty much everything at wide receiver. He can stretch the field over the top.
He can go up to get jump balls. He’s at his best after the catch. He might not
be a true freak in the way a lot of the top receivers in the league are, but he’s so well
rounded that I can’t see him not succeeding. He’s very similar in fact to Amari
Cooper, and together they give Dallas an elite duo of receivers.
18) Miami Dolphins – Austin Jackson, OT, USC
I
haven’t done a full scouting report for Jackson yet. I’ll try to get around to
it tomorrow. But based on the one game I have watched from him so far, it is
not going to be complimentary.
19) Las Vegas Raiders – Damon Arnette, CB, Ohio State
Wide
receiver and cornerback was the most common pairing for the Raiders in mock
drafts, and they didn’t disappoint. Arnette was a surprise for some people
going off the board this high. He isn’t a great athlete, and he’s smaller than
most of the other top cornerbacks. But he is incredibly aggressive and makes
some great plays on the football. This may be a slight reach, but I don’t hate
the value here.
20) Jacksonville Jaguars – K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU
There's pretty much no chance that Yannick Ngakoue is going to be back in
Jacksonville, so now they bring in a second pass rusher to go opposite Josh
Allen. Chaisson is an interesting athlete, dangerous in space but extremely raw
as a pass rusher. He’s not the sort who is going to come screaming off the
edge, at least not right away. He’ll be most useful if the defense can figure
out how to get him charging with good momentum on the inside or playing in
space on the edge.
21) Philadelphia Eagles – Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU
I
expected Justin Jefferson to be the next receiver off the board, but it isn’t a
shock to see Reagor here either. He’s an explosive athlete, and he shows
moments of excellent route running. He can do a lot of things, and it’s just an
issue of finding the consistency to become an elite wide receiver. It may take
him a couple years to get there, and until then he’ll contribute in bursts on
offense and as a dangerous returner.
22) Minnesota Vikings – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
With
Philadelphia’s surprise move above, Jefferson slides only one more slot before
Minnesota laps him up with the pick they acquired in the Stefon Diggs trade. In
a lot of ways he’s a good fit to replace many of the things Diggs did. He’s a
good route runner and very good on contested catches. I don’t think he has the
speed down the field that Diggs did, and it will absolutely be a net loss for
their offense in the short term.
In the long term I am unclear about Jefferson’s
upside. On the field he looked like a solid number two receiver, a Tyler Boyd
type player at best. But at the Combine he blew the roof off with his athletic
testing, suggesting there might be more there. My instinct is to trust the
tape, which is why I had a few other receivers available at this point ranked
above him. But I can’t write off the possibility that he develops into more
than he showed in college.
23) Los Angeles Chargers – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
The
Chargers leap up to grab Murray, my top rated linebacker in the draft. I really
like Murray, and I really like his fit in the Chargers defense, but I question the
value of trading two day two picks for a linebacker. But that part is done, and
now the Chargers have a very good young linebacker. Like many linebackers these
days Murray has the speed to streak from sideline to sideline, but he also
brings an impressive amount of pop to stuff runners at the line of scrimmage.
He’ll be one of the best linebackers in football in a couple of years.
24) New Orleans Saints – Cesar Ruiz, OG/C, Michigan
It’s never a bad move to build depth up front,
and Ruiz is the best pure interior lineman in the draft. When the Saints won
their Super Bowl in 2009 they did so with a pair of top notch guards, and after
spending a second round pick on Eric McCoy a year ago they seem committed to
building that as a strength once again. And for as roster as well rounded and
as deep as the Saints, every pick is a luxury pick.
25) San Francisco 49ers – Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State
This
is a pretty much perfect landing spot for Aiyuk. He has a lot of talent as a
route runner, to go along with great quickness when he gets the ball in his
hands. His biggest weakness is a lack of physicality, and no one in the NFL is
better at scheming receivers open than Kyle Shanahan. He’ll get Aiyuk moving
before the snap, give him plenty of free releases down the field, and open up a
lot of options for Jimmy Garoppolo in the passing game.
26) Green Bay Packers – Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
Well
this is probably the most fascinating pick of the first round. Love is
tremendously talented throwing the football. He makes plays that no other
quarterback in this class can make, both striking tight windows down the field
and throwing on the run. He also makes a lot of poor decisions throwing down
the field, and he’s going to have to pick up a lot from the sideline before he
makes it into the starting lineup.
That’s
where this gets interesting. Because Green Bay obviously already has a
quarterback. Aaron Rodgers has clearly been trending down for a couple years,
but he’s still an above average quarterback. More significantly he’s still
under contract for four years, with no real way to get out of his contract in
the next two. Most likely that means three more seasons from Rodgers. If that
happens, the Packers will be forced to make a decision on Love’s fifth year option without him ever having stepped foot on the field, and if they
don’t pick it up have his first year as a starter come in his final year under
contract.
This
could work out fantastically, as it did when they selected Rodgers with Brett
Favre still under center in 2005. If Love can develop on the sideline, he
absolutely has the talent to continue that quarterback legacy. But there’s also
a chance that Green Bay just threw away a first round pick on someone who won’t
contribute for three years, and maybe not even after that.
27) Seattle Seahawks – Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech
Death,
taxes, Seattle grabbing someone no one had any expectation of going in the
first round. I’ve only seen passing mention of Brooks’s name at all, so I’ll
have to get back to you tomorrow after I’ve had a chance to watch some film..
28) Baltimore Ravens – Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
In
a couple years this could look like the steal of the draft. Or it could look
like a total disaster. Queen is a phenomenal athlete, flying all over the field
in all sorts of directions. He doesn’t have much physicality, but he’s fast
enough to run around blockers if he can’t go through him. I was less impressed
by his abilities in coverage than most people seem to be, but I will
admit that he has the athletic ability to do great things there. I think it will take
him some time, but I trust Baltimore’s player development to make him into a
very good starter.
29) Tennessee Titans – Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia
I
also haven’t written up Wilson yet, though I’ve watched a couple games of him.
I haven’t loved what I’ve seen, but at least he isn’t Austin Jackson.
30) Miami Dolphins – Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn
Interesting,
Miami going all in on cornerback. I’ve watched two games on Igbinoghene, and
this seems like an okay choice here, but I’ll have a more detailed scouting
report tomorrow.
31) Minnesota Vikings – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
Gladney
is a name that has been linked to Minnesota basically since this process began.
He’s smart and well rounded, and he’s ready to start day one for a team with basically
nothing at cornerback. He plays with a physical style that Mike Zimmer will love, though I worry he doesn’t have the
physical tools to match the attitude. He’s solid in coverage but he gets pushed
around by bigger receivers, and this is not something that can be trained out
of. I would have preferred a bigger cornerback like Jaylon Johnson or Kristian
Fulton, but at this point the difference between the cornerbacks available is
fairly small.
32) Kansas City Chiefs – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU
This
is interesting. I didn’t expect the Chiefs to spend their first round pick on a
running back, not after they showed a couple years ago how little they value
the position when they cast Kareem Hunt aside without a second thought. But
Edwards-Helaire is a good fit schematically with his ability to run routes out
of the backfield. I don’t think he has much talent as a pure runner, but Kansas
City could be a perfect place for him, somewhere he can handle 5-10 carries and
5-10 receptions a game rather than just being pounded on the grounds 10-20
times.
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